scholarly journals Are EU Members’ Economies an “Engine” of the EU Candidates’ Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97-117
Author(s):  
Marija Radulović ◽  
Milan Kostić
Keyword(s):  
Developing Country ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Economic Relations ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Eu

Abstract Research background: Economic relations between countries members of the EU and EU candidates are very strong. Germany and France have the leading economies of the EU, are in the top ten economies worldwide, and drivers of EU development. Serbia has strong economic relations with Germany and France, especially with Germany. Therefore, it is necessary to examine whether Germany and France impact the development of Serbia. Purpose: The purpose of the study is to determine if there is a positive influence of a developed country on a developing country. The aim of the paper is to determine whether there is a long- and short-term positive relationship between Germany and France (EU members) and the Serbian economy (EU candidate). Research methodology: A Vector Error Correction Model is used to analyze quarterly data from 2002Q2 to 2018Q2. Results: The results showed a statistically significant long-term relationship between Germany and France and Serbia’s real GDPs, so EU members have a long-term positive impact on the economy of EU candidates. In the case of the French, there is a short-run positive impact on the Serbian economy. For Germany, it is not the case. Novelty: This paper fills the literature gap about the influence of a developed country on a developing country. Recommendations for policymakers in EU candidates could be that if they want to motivate people to accept the process of access to the EU, they must provide them with more information about long-run economic benefits from the association to the EU.

scholarly journals Does R&D Expenditure Boost Economic Growth in Lagging Regions?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viviana Celli ◽  
Augusto Cerqua ◽  
Guido Pellegrini
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Innovation Capability ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Eu

AbstractWe assess the impact of the EU Regional Policy on regional economic growth by applying a new evaluation strategy, which integrates mediation analysis with a quasi-experimental framework. Using the R&D expenditure as an indicator of innovation capability, we evaluate how much of the total effect of the EU Regional Policy is due to R&D in the poorest EU regions. Consistently with the previous literature, we found a positive impact of the overall policy on economic growth, but, among the convergence regions, those investing a higher proportion of funds in R&D have the same convergence rate as regions investing more in other priorities. These findings confirm that the EU Regional Policy played an important role in the economic recovery of the poorest regions in the aftermath of the Great Recession. However, focusing resources on R&D does not seem to provide additional economic benefits, at least in the short run.

scholarly journals The Influence of Price and Non-Price Factors on Acreage Response of Maize in Eswatini

2019 ◽  
pp. 38-42
Author(s):  
D. V. Dlamini ◽  
S. G. Dlamini ◽  
D. Akelrele ◽  
Q. Jele
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Resistant Varieties ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Error Correction Modeling

The study analyzes the acreage response of maize with respect to price and non-price factors in Swaziland during the period 1968-2017. Rainfall and agricultural policy are the non-price factors considered in this study. The Cointergration and Vector Error Correction Modeling approaches were used to estimate the short run and long run elasticities of price and non-price factors acreage response of maize in Eswatini. The results confirm that non-price factors seem to have more effect on acreage response in the long run. The introduction of the Maputo declaration policy in 2003 had not yeld the positive impact on maize annual acreage changes. The study also shows that climatological factors such as rainfall has a positive influence on maize production and resource allocation both in short and long run. Development of climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies would assist the maize production sector in the country. The strategies cannot affect natural conditions like rainfall, but it can compensate for the negative impact of climate change by increasing investment in irrigation, promoting efficient use of water and encouraging adoption of drought resistant varieties of seeds.

scholarly journals Does Foreign Direct Investment Lead to Economic Growth? Evidences from Asian Developing Countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Najaf Ali ◽  
Ye Mingque
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causal Association ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asian Developing Countries

The study about the interrelationship between FDI and economic growth in the host country is one of the hottest discussions. Some of the studies have evidence and consider FDI as the growth driver and some others don’t. This study attempted to scrutinize the causal association of FDI with GDP in Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Bangladesh for the years of 1990 to 2014. Cointegration test has been applied in this study which shows that there is a long-term interrelationship within FDI and economic growth and then applied the Granger causality (GC) test which is based on the VECM. The short run results show that there are no evidence of causality direction from FDI to GDP and vice versa, whereas the long run results show that there is a positive impact of FDI and other variables to the GDP but not significant, and from GDP and other variables to FDI there is a negative interrelationship but significant. The results show the ambiguous interrelationship between FDI and economic growth.

The relationship between LNG price, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and government spending in China: An empirical analysis based on the ARDL and SVAR model

2021 ◽  
pp. 0958305X2110536
Author(s):  
Yuanyuan Hao
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Positive Influence ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Svar Model ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Tax Hypothesis ◽  
The Impact

The present paper examines the dynamic relationship between liquefied natural gas (LNG) price, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and government spending (GOVS) in China using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model. The goal of carrying out ARDL and SVAR together is to consolidate and strengthen the consistency of the results obtained from both approaches. ARDL results show that a positive influence relationship between both short-run and long-run LNG prices, LNG revenue, non-LNG revenue and GOVS, but there was no significant relationship between LNG price and GOVS. The SVAR also substantiates the results of ARDL test and provides further insight which shows that long-run fiscal synchronization hypothesis is evidenced between the LNG revenue and GOVS, while spend-tax hypothesis exists in the long-run between GOVS and non-LNG revenue. It is also evidenced that there is a complementary relationship between LNG revenue and non-LNG revenue, but this complementary role is stronger than the substitution role. Since non-LNG revenue has a greater impact on GOVS in the short-run, and the impact of LNG prices and LNG revenue on GOVS in the long-run increases over time, thus, GOVS mitigates the direct impact of non-LNG revenue to some extent, and that an appropriate allocation of spending in the non-LNG industry will have a positive impact on the development of the market economy supporting the Keynesian and spend-tax hypothesis.

scholarly journals On the Creation and Destruction of National Wealth: Are Financial Collapses Endogenous?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 7352
Author(s):  
Stanislav E. Shmelev ◽  
Robert U. Ayres
Keyword(s):  
Positive Impact ◽  
House Price ◽  
Period Change ◽  
Short Term ◽  
National Wealth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Significant Factors

This paper traces US national wealth from 1914 through 2015 and constructs a multivariate econometric model that combines elements of short-term and long-term dynamics. We find that US wealth depends on a range of macroeconomic variables, including the wealth itself observed in the previous period, change in market capitalization, change in US house price index and inflation. Less impactful, statistically significant factors included unemployment, changes in oil price, and change in debt-to-GDP ratio. Another significant result is that the Glass–Steagall Act, which prohibited commercial banks from speculative activity in the stock market after 1933, had a statistically significant positive impact on wealth in the US. We test the model by asking whether it could have anticipated the actual collapse in 2008, given prior data up to 2000, 2005 and 2010. All three tests forecasted a sharp wealth decline starting in 2008, followed by a recovery. These results suggest the possibility of forecasting future financial collapses. We have found our model to be slightly more accurate in the short run than in the long run.

scholarly journals Analysis of the New Kuznets Relationship: Considering Emissions of Carbon, Methanol, and Nitrous Oxide Greenhouse Gases—Evidence from EU Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 2907
Author(s):  
Mara Madaleno ◽  
Victor Moutinho
Keyword(s):  
Nitrous Oxide ◽  
Least Squares ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Eu

Decreased greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) are urgently needed in view of global health threat represented by climate change. The goal of this paper is to test the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, considering less common measures of environmental burden. For that, four different estimations are done, one considering total GHG emissions, and three more taking into account, individually, the three main GHG gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), and methane gas (CH4)—considering the oldest and most recent economies adhering to the EU27 (the EU 15 (Old Europe) and the EU 12 (New Europe)) separately. Using panel dynamic fixed effects (DFE), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques, we validate the existence of a U-shaped relationship for all emission proxies considered, and groups of countries in the short-run. Some evidence of this effect also exists in the long-run. However, we were only able to validate the EKC hypothesis for the short-run in EU 12 under DOLS and the short and long-run using FMOLS. Confirmed is the fact that results are sensitive to models and measures adopted. Externalization of problems globally takes a longer period for national policies to correct, turning global measures harder and local environmental proxies more suitable to deeply explore the EKC hypothesis.

Fish Exports and Economic Growth: The Pakistan’s Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Tehseen Jawaid ◽  
Mohammad Haris Siddiqui ◽  
Zeeshan Atiq ◽  
Usman Azhar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study attempts to explore first time ever the relationship between fish exports and economic growth of Pakistan by employing annual time series data for the period 1974–2013. Autoregressive distributed lag and Johansen and Juselius cointegration results confirm the existence of a positive long-run relationship among the variables. Further, the error correction model reveals that no immediate or short-run relationship exists between fish exports and economic growth. Different sensitivity analyses indicate that initial results are robust. Rolling window analysis has been applied to identify the yearly behaviour of fish exports, and it remains negative from 1979 to 1982, 1984 to 1988, 1993 to 1999, 2004 and from 2010 to 2013, and it shows positive impact from 1989 to 1992, 2000 to 2003 and from 2005 to 2009. Furthermore, the variance decomposition method and impulse response function suggest the bidirectional causal relationship between fish exports and economic growth. The findings are beneficial for policymakers in the area of export planning. This study also provides some policy implications in the final section.

Where Did All the Dollars Go? The Effect of Cash Flows on Capital and Asset Structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Short And Long Term

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

The Real Effects of Military Spending on Security

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 377-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lloyd J. Dumas
Keyword(s):  
Military Spending ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Military Force ◽  
Physical Security ◽  
Dead Weight ◽  
Economic Relationships ◽  
Real Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

AbstractThe indirect effects of military spending on security are stronger and more important than its direct effects, and its long run impact more telling than its short run impact. In the short run, military spending can be a source of both physical security and economic stimulus. In the long run, it can be counterproductive in terms of physical security and will be a dead weight on the economy. How a society’s productive resources are deployed, as between military spending and more economically productive activities, sets it on a long-term course with powerful implications for the ability of its economy to do what it is supposed to do – provide for the material well-being of the population as a whole. The mechanism by which the extensive and extended diversion of productive economic resources to economically unproductive military spending drags an economy down is analyzed. Furthermore, it is possible to use properly structured international and domestic economic relationships in place of threats or use of military force to increase national and international security, while at the same time enhancing, rather than degrading, economic wellbeing. Three principles for structuring such a “peacekeeping economy” are set forth.

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