scholarly journals Forest management scenarios modelling with morphological analysis – examples taken from Podpoľanie and Kysuce

2019 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rudolf Navrátil ◽  
Yvonne Brodrechtová ◽  
Róbert Sedmák ◽  
Ján Tuček
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Morphological Analysis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Modelling Method ◽  
The Future ◽  
Market Driven ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Near Future

Abstract Scenarios modelling offers to forest management an option how to envision complex future associated with various natural, social, or economic uncertainties. The challenge is what modelling method to choose as many methodological approaches to scenario building exists. Morphological analysis is a basic modelling method for structuring and analysing a whole set of relationships existing in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, and complex topics. Especially, its application is relevant when abstract policy or market-driven challenges need to be investigated. In this study, we demonstrated the usefulness of the morphological analysis with an example case taken from forest management in Slovakia. The use of the method has enabled, from a number of uncertain futures, to identify three possible, plausible and consistent future scenarios of possible forest management direction in the regions of Podpoľanie and Kysuce. Additionally, the future scenario modelling as prognostic method of qualitative research supported by quantitative models or forestry DSS could introduce participation and more dimensions into forest management modelling. Thus, the future scenarios modelling offers new methodological possibilities to how to deal with increasing uncertainties associated with increasing demands for various ecosystem services or negative impacts of climate change, that forest management in Slovakia will face in the near future.

scholarly journals Partizipative Erarbeitung von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien für den Tessiner Kastaniengürtel

2018 ◽  
Vol 169 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-25
Author(s):  
Francesca Cellina ◽  
Luca Pampuri ◽  
Marco Conedera ◽  
Davide Bettelini ◽  
Rudy Genazzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Management ◽  
Interest Groups ◽  
Participatory Design ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Forest Planning ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Schemes ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Current Guidelines

Participatory design of management scenarios for the Ticino chestnut belt Current guidelines for forest management ask for multi-functional management schemes, allowing a balance between different forest functions, such as production, protection, recreation and ecology. This requires adoption of multi-criteria processes for forest planning. In such a framework, involving stakeholders from the very beginning of the process might be an additional benefit: it would allow to identify possible broadly accepted forest management strategies, thus facilitating their implementation. In this paper, we present the methodologies and tools we developed between 2013 and 2016, in a process aimed at designing and assessing management scenarios for the chestnut belt forests in the Canton of Ticino (Switzerland). Structured and transparent comparison among the scenarios allowed around twenty representatives of cantonal offices and interest groups to make rational and informed choices, leading to the identification of two low-conflict, compromise management scenarios to be implemented in the near future.

scholarly journals Repositioning People in Creative Futures: A Method to Create Sound Advice with Exploratory Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Guillermo Velasco ◽  
◽  
Rafael Popper ◽  
Ian Miles ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
As If

Foresight scenarios are not only useful presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open. Scenarios are means for generating advice that helps policymakers initiate actions in the present or near future that will be of long-term significance. Despite the influence that such advice may have on policy decisions, the Foresight literature has paid very little attention to the creation of policy recommendations. Though reports of scenario exercises frequently conclude with lists of recommendations that follow from the study, there is very little explication of the process whereby advice is elicited from the examination of these future scenarios. This paper addresses this gap, examining how the generation of recommendations is related to the development of scenarios within multiple future repositioning workshop settings. It focuses on the fluency and originality of these recommendations, and how this is influenced by repositioning participants in highly transformational scenarios. Repositioning is the process whereby participants are invited to imagine themselves playing roles in hypothetical future contexts, and on that basis to make decisions or devise strategies as if they actually were immersed in these circumstances. The method proposed and the findings of the case study have implications for why and how this future repositioning approach can be incorporated as a ‘key feature’ in the design of Foresight activities. The aim is also to raise awareness of the need for more exploration of Foresight recommendation methodology.

scholarly journals Will climate change impact polar NOx produced by energetic particle precipitation?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ville Maliniemi ◽  
Daniel R. Marsh ◽  
Hilde Nesse Tyssøy ◽  
Christine Smith-Johnsen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Energetic Electron ◽  
Atmospheric Effects ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
The Future ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
Change Impact

<p>Energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is an important source of polar nitrogen oxides (NOx) in the upper atmosphere. During winter, mesospheric NOx has a long chemical lifetime and is transported to the stratosphere by the mean meridional circulation. Climate change is expected to accelerate this circulation and therefore increase polar mesospheric descent rates. We investigate the southern hemispheric polar NOx distribution during the 21<sup>st</sup> century under a variety of future scenarios using simulations of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). Each future scenario has the same moderate variable solar activity scenario, where EEP activity is lower than during the 20<sup>th</sup> century. We simulate stronger polar mesospheric descent in all future scenarios that increase the atmospheric radiative forcing. By the end of 21<sup>st</sup> century polar NOx in the upper stratosphere is significantly enhanced in two future scenarios with the largest increase in radiative forcing. This indicates that the ozone depleting NOx cycle will become more important in the future, especially if stratospheric chlorine species decline. Thus, EEP-related atmospheric effects may become more prominent in the future.</p>

scholarly journals A survey to assess the status of Sumatran rhinoceros and other large mammal species in Tamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary, Myanmar

Oryx ◽  
1995 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Rabinowitz ◽  
George B. Schaller ◽  
U Uga
Keyword(s):  
Forest Products ◽  
Wildlife Sanctuary ◽  
Forest Department ◽  
Mammal Species ◽  
Large Mammal ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Status ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Near Future

Tamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary in the Upper Chindwin district of Myanmar could be one of the most important remaining sites for wildlife in the country. Until recently, insurgency problems prevented officials of the Myanmar Forest Department visiting the area or carrying out any form of management. Yet the sanctuary is essentially intact and, with the exception of rhino, appears to contain viable populations of most large mammal species known from that part of Myanmar. However, hunting and the collection of forest products in the sanctuary are having negative impacts on the wildlife community. The future survival of the Sumatran rhino in the Upper Chindwin area is doubtful. Other large mammal species, such as the tiger and gaur, may follow the rhino towards extinction in the near future. Tamanthi Wildlife Sanctuary will need to be actively protected and managed to ensure that much of Myanmar's wildlife continues to survive in this area, well into the future.

O3 responses in CMIP6 AerChemMIP experiments: different roles of O3 precursors, CH4 concentrations and climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenze Liu ◽  
Ruth M. Doherty ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
Fiona M. O’Connor ◽  
Steven T. Turnock
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Boundary Layer ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Production Efficiency ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Volatile Organic ◽  
The Future

<p>A new version of the UKCA chemistry-climate model with highly reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is used to investigate the ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) responses in historical (2004-2014) and future (2045-2055) shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios of CMIP6 AerChemMIP experiments. Significant increases in surface O<sub>3</sub> levels in South and East Asia are simulated in the new version compared with the standard UKCA model. The O<sub>3</sub> production and the O<sub>3</sub> burden averaged over the troposphere increase slightly by 6 % as a result of more highly reactive VOCs, but the O<sub>3</sub> lifetime is quite similar. Comparing the different SSP scenarios using this new model version we find the averaged surface O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are higher in the scenario with high emissions than for historical conditions. O<sub>3</sub> concentrations are much lower than historical O<sub>3</sub> concentrations when O<sub>3</sub> precursor concentrations are low. However, regional O<sub>3</sub> increases occur in East Asia in the future scenario with low emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to strong VOC limited regimes. Decreases in surface O<sub>3</sub> concentrations occur globally in the future scenario that has lower methane (CH<sub>4</sub>) concentrations. We construct O<sub>3</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> production isopleths. These both suggest that the threshold of NO<sub>x</sub>/VOCs shifting from NO<sub>x</sub> limited to VOC limited regimes is approximately 0.8. More areas become VOC limited in South Asia in all future scenarios, but there is little change for East Asia. The hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations generally increase in regions with high O<sub>3</sub> precursor abundances in the future scenario, but the high OH levels are offset by lower CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations in the future low CH<sub>4</sub> scenario. We find that there are small changes in O<sub>3</sub> production efficiency in continental regions in all future scenarios. Relative O<sub>3</sub> burden changes between the future SSP and historical scenarios are larger in the troposphere than in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), illustrating that O<sub>3</sub> burdens are less sensitive in the PBL under emission and climate change. The O<sub>3</sub> lifetime in the troposphere decreases in all future scenarios as compared to the historical period. We find that the decreases in O<sub>3</sub> precursors and CH<sub>4</sub> concentrations play important roles in reducing O<sub>3</sub> burdens in the future.</p>

Transmedia Storytelling Initiatives in Brazilian Media

MedienJournal ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (4) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Renira Rampazzo Gambarato ◽  
Geane Carvalho Alzamora
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Media Development ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Transmedia Storytelling ◽  
The Future

This paper is presented in order to understand the evolution of media dynamics in Brazil and investigate its perspectives for the future. Brazil, among the BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), will be our focus. From a mono-mediatic paradigm to a convergent one, Brazil is developing new practices in fictional and non-fictional media. Our hypothesis is that the transmedia storytelling strategy is both the reality – although still timid – and the most probable future scenario for media development in Brazil. We can assert that transmedia storytelling is a tendency. Therefore, we will explore examples of transmedia storytelling initiatives in Brazilian media mainly related to journalism, entertainment, branding and advertisement.

The future of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis

2020 ◽  
pp. 57
Author(s):  
Alaa Taleb Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Future

The present research aims at arriving the motives of the Russian intervention in the Syrian crisis, in the first section, As well as the positions of regional and international countries in favor of this intervention and opposition to it, in the second section, And the out looking of the future of this intervention and keeping an open crisis in Syria by posing future scenarios and the likelihood of one of them, and the jungle in the third section.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America

Oceans ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 429-447
Author(s):  
Christian Dominguez ◽  
James M. Done ◽  
Cindy L. Bruyère
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Track Density ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation.

scholarly journals Sociotechnical imaginaries of a secure future

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Gerhold ◽  
Edda Brandes
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Security Technologies ◽  
Sociotechnical Imaginaries ◽  
The Future

AbstractThe article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.

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