scholarly journals Repositioning People in Creative Futures: A Method to Create Sound Advice with Exploratory Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-38
Author(s):  
Guillermo Velasco ◽  
◽  
Rafael Popper ◽  
Ian Miles ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Policy Recommendations ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Policy Decisions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Near Future ◽  
As If

Foresight scenarios are not only useful presentational devices to show that many aspects of the future are open. Scenarios are means for generating advice that helps policymakers initiate actions in the present or near future that will be of long-term significance. Despite the influence that such advice may have on policy decisions, the Foresight literature has paid very little attention to the creation of policy recommendations. Though reports of scenario exercises frequently conclude with lists of recommendations that follow from the study, there is very little explication of the process whereby advice is elicited from the examination of these future scenarios. This paper addresses this gap, examining how the generation of recommendations is related to the development of scenarios within multiple future repositioning workshop settings. It focuses on the fluency and originality of these recommendations, and how this is influenced by repositioning participants in highly transformational scenarios. Repositioning is the process whereby participants are invited to imagine themselves playing roles in hypothetical future contexts, and on that basis to make decisions or devise strategies as if they actually were immersed in these circumstances. The method proposed and the findings of the case study have implications for why and how this future repositioning approach can be incorporated as a ‘key feature’ in the design of Foresight activities. The aim is also to raise awareness of the need for more exploration of Foresight recommendation methodology.

scholarly journals Assessing the Capacity of Adaptive Policy Pathways to Adapt on Time by Mapping Trigger Values to Their Outcomes

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luciano Raso ◽  
Jan Kwakkel ◽  
Jos Timmermans
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Adaptive Policy ◽  
Misclassification Errors ◽  
The Future ◽  
Adaptive Action ◽  
The Face

Climate change raises serious concerns for policymakers that want to ensure the success of long-term policies. To guarantee satisfactory decisions in the face of deep uncertainties, adaptive policy pathways might be used. Adaptive policy pathways are designed to take actions according to how the future will actually unfold. In adaptive pathways, a monitoring system collects the evidence required for activating the next adaptive action. This monitoring system is made of signposts and triggers. Signposts are indicators that track the performance of the pathway. When signposts reach pre-specified trigger values, the next action on the pathway is implemented. The effectiveness of the monitoring system is pivotal to the success of adaptive policy pathways, therefore the decision-makers would like to have sufficient confidence about the future capacity to adapt on time. “On time” means activating the next action on a pathway neither so early that it incurs unnecessary costs, nor so late that it incurs avoidable damages. In this paper, we show how mapping the relations between triggers and the probability of misclassification errors inform the level of confidence that a monitoring system for adaptive policy pathways can provide. Specifically, we present the “trigger-probability” mapping and the “trigger-consequences” mappings. The former mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the level of confidence regarding whether change occurs and adaptation is needed. The latter mapping displays the interplay between trigger values for a given signpost and the consequences of misclassification errors for both adapting the policy or not. In a case study, we illustrate how these mappings can be used to test the effectiveness of a monitoring system, and how they can be integrated into the process of designing an adaptive policy.

scholarly journals Foresight Based on MADM-Based Scenarios’ Approach: A Case about Comprehensive Sustainable Health Financing Models

Symmetry ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani ◽  
Reza Dehnavieh ◽  
Atousa Poursheikhali ◽  
Olegas Prentkovskis ◽  
Payam Khazaelpour
Keyword(s):  
Health Financing ◽  
Multiple Attribute Decision Making ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Resources Management ◽  
Multiple Attribute ◽  
The Future ◽  
Product Assessment ◽  
Sustainable Health

As indicated by a worldwide common perspective about health and sustainable health systems, the health structure as a part of public health is a key theme of many societies. The future is shaped by probable future scenarios, for which dealing practically has many complications. This study is focused on the future scenarios for a comprehensive sustainable health financing model to support a superior structure for a decision and policy-making pilot for the society. This aim is followed based on multiple attribute decision making (MADM)-based scenarios using two MADM methods, step-wise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA) and weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS), as a hybrid model which is the first real case study of the approach. Four main probable future scenarios are identified and selected based on experts’ viewpoints about sustainable health financing models. These scenarios include membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO), dynamic basic insurance, international cooperation, and effective resources management. The process of evaluating based on the approach works as a wider picture, including all criteria and alternatives together. Sustainable medical services, empowering the private sector in both production and technology, and employing international managers took place as the top priority for considering the most applicable alternatives in the future. This structure is designed and developed in Iran’s context, and the Institute for Futures Studies in Health is the pilot of the research.

Precaution, Prediction, Proof, and Policy Assessment

2002 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 281-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Dovers
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Policy Goals ◽  
The Status ◽  
National Competition ◽  
Policy Systems ◽  
Ecologically Sustainable ◽  
Near Future

The challenge of sustainable development—the ultimate goal of precaution—demands that we shift our focus away from individual environmental problems and toward long-term integration of environmental, social, and economic policy. It also elevates protection of ecosystem processes and biodiversity to the status of significant policy goals. In this article, the author argues for a new use of the precautionary principle, as a means to assess broad policy decisions to target indirect or systemic rather than direct threats to sustainability. He draws on a case study of two Australian policies: the National Strategy for Ecologically Sustainable Development (ESD), and the National Competition Policy (NCP). While the proposals are ambitious and may not be achievable in the near future, nonetheless, it is in the nature of institutional and policy systems that it is difficult to predict when opportunities for policy change will arise. It is crucial to develop and articulate strategies now, to be promoted during brief windows of opportunity for policy change.

scholarly journals The future of Wallace region in Lombok: the pristine natural resource under climatic and anthropogenic threat

2021 ◽  
Vol 913 (1) ◽  
pp. 012049
Author(s):  
Mahrup ◽  
M Ma’shum ◽  
MH Idris ◽  
Fahrudin
Keyword(s):  
Natural Resource ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Natural Scene ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
The Future ◽  
World Class ◽  
Potential Impact

Abstract Wallace region is mostly comprised of the southeast archipelagoes of Indonesia, namely West and East Nusa Tenggara. Lombok is a west border of the Wallace line which biologically delineate the distinguished fauna and climate in the eastern Indonesia. However, the pristine natural resource is under climatic and anthropogenic threat. A case study by means of a Descriptive method was conducted to identify any contradictive use of natural resource leading to environmental degradation, as well as to study ruination impact of climate uncertainty. Long term satellite images of Lombok from 1980’s up to the latest date were traced to identify any changes in land cover, land use and settlement. Climate data were analyzed to find its trend and forecast its potential impact on the environment. Overall, the results showed that the pristine environments, namely forests, hillocks and cliffs, particularly in tourism destination sites had been accordingly overburdened by contradictive use of resources. Lack of law enforcements in environmental protection was a key point to be addressed as a major factor resulted in losses of the most valuable value of Lombok natural scene. In addition, manmade disaster is becoming more frequent with climate change commonly accused. In conclusion, the future of the natural resource in Lombok would not be merely relied on world class facilities of tourism industry, but on to what extend effort to naturally sustain the beauty of natural scene, stop degrading the lands and be responsible to protect environment in line with regional development.

Mitos Wacana Pendidikan Karakter Perempuan Minangkabau: Studi Kasus Kabupaten Padang Pariaman

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-49
Author(s):  
Muhammad Yunis
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Qualitative Methods ◽  
Character Education ◽  
Speech Acts ◽  
Young Generation ◽  
Purity Assessment ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Education Discourse

This study titled 'Myth For Women Character Education Discourse of Minangkabau; Case Study of PadangPariaman '' is one of the studies that tried to reformulate the old wisdom and knowledge that is useful for the creation of models tolearning and character education of young generation in the future, especially women. In the formulation of this model, the authorsuse qualitative methods ethnometodology approach in the collection and analysis of data, with the hope of purity assessment ismaintained.The data can be by way of participation and interview.The processing and data analysis, deconstruction required readings. Deconstruction is not just unload but re-downloaddestructs. (evaluation) with the help of linguistics that speech acts (elaboration) and semiotics (significance). The way it works, thedata that has been collected will enter the stage of processing; grouping based on the research objectives; analyzed by speech acttheory; pared with the theory of semiotics; and to formulate a model of learning as a result of the evaluation.

The Promise and Potential of Seminole Tribal Historic Preservation and Archaeology

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent R. Weisman
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Historic Preservation ◽  
Indigenous People ◽  
Cultural Groups ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Creation

More than twenty years have elapsed since the federal nexus for the creation of THPOs occurred yet the work of the THPO remains unevaluated holistically. What are the contributions that have been made socially, culturally, politically, academically, and economically? With little organizational or mission-centric uniformity between individual programs, should we expect greater homogenization of institutional forms in the future? Or does the diversity in programs underscore the very different cultural groups that comprise the modern political configurations of the indigenous people of North America? The Seminole Tribe THPO is a case study of one well-resourced office that is attempting to build capacity and pull up a seat to sit squarely at the table. The relative successes, or otherwise, of this strategy will ultimately be judged by the community it serves.

Economic Development Through Regional Approach

2017 ◽  
pp. 31-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neeta Baporikar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Regional Growth ◽  
Regional Approach ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Economic Development Policy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Payoff Structure ◽  
The Creation

Entrepreneurship has potentially short, medium, and long-term consequences for regions, including the creation of employment and wealth. Efficient firms grow and survive while inefficient firms decline and fall. Regions have gained a position at the forefront of the economic development policy agenda. However, the regional approach to economic strategy remains contested. The ability of regions to gain from the positive effects of entrepreneurship will depend on their institutional arrangements, the social payoff structure, and their ability to turn knowledge into regional growth through the creation and dissemination of knowledge. Through in-depth observation, examining policies, and content analysis of relevant documents, this chapter through case study of Pune Auto Component Small- and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs) from India attempts to explore and understand the extent economic development occurs when regional approach is adopted.

Liability for Present and Future Robotics Technology

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trevor N. White ◽  
Seth D. Baum
Keyword(s):  
Significant Challenge ◽  
Legal Personhood ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Law ◽  
Global Catastrophe ◽  
Near Future ◽  
As If

Advances in robotics technology are causing major changes in manufacturing, transportation, medicine, and numerous other sectors. While many of these changes are beneficial, some will inevitably lead to harm. Who should be liable when a robot causes harm? This chapter addresses how the law can and should account for robot liability, including robots that exist today and that could potentially be built in the future. Current and near-future robots pose no significant challenge: existing law or minor variations therein can readily handle them. A greater challenge will arise if it becomes possible to build robots that merit legal personhood and thus can be held liable, as well as if future robots can cause major global catastrophe.

Speculations

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arlindo Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Human Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Galaxy ◽  
Evolution Of Technology ◽  
Technological Singularity ◽  
The Creation

This chapter, the last chapter in the book, presents some far-fetched ideas about the future of technology and the human species. It starts by discussing the concept of technological singularity, an even that would create a discontinuity in the evolution of technology. The idea that mind uploading may one day become possible leads many people to believe that the singularity will one day happen, making it possible to eradicate death entirely. Approaches such as cryonics, that aim at preserving bodies until the singularity arrives, are considered and discussed. The creation of digital minds also raises complex questions about the possible future existence of intelligences much superior to those of humans, leading to the problem of how to deal with such intelligences. Finally, the chapter analyses the possible relations between digital minds, the long term future of technology and how these questions may be related with Fermi’s paradox: if there are many intelligences in the galaxy, how come we never met any?

Aeronautics-1903; aerospace-2003; ? ? 2103

2005 ◽  
Vol 219 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-260
Author(s):  
J E Allen
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
Energy Substitution ◽  
The Future ◽  
Manned Flight ◽  
Aeronautical Engineering ◽  
Wilbur Wright ◽  
Near Future ◽  
Rare Opportunity

The centenary of the first manned flight was a unique occasion permitting a rare opportunity to range far into both the past and the future. Most of aeronautics must inevitably be focussed on the near future and immediate actions. However, there are some very long-term underlying issues which are invisible from a day-to-day perspective, but which should not be overlooked as they can be used very often to guide decisions that might otherwise be unsound. In Part 1, the paper reviews the major breakthroughs that have impelled aeronautics along a startling trajectory of success, with some mention of the uncertain beginnings, when even Wilbur Wright considered that all his aerodynamic theories were in a muddle. In that spirit, in Part 2, some attempts are made to anticipate possible breakthroughs that might happen in the 21st century. However, aeronautics does not stand alone. Considerations, such as other transport modes, energy substitution, non-vehicular transport, and the consequences of major global political alignments, will be reviewed in order to seek new aeronautical challenges of the future. Some other long-term, but non-aeronautical engineering, initiatives relevant to the IMechE are introduced and discussed in the appendix

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