scholarly journals Impact of economic conditions on (restricted) immigration to the United States: The Polish case

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michał Schwabe
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Ethnic Diversity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Polish Migration ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Migration Flows ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Throughout the twentieth century, United States has been the most desirable destination for international migrants, primarily due to its economic performance and also to American values – work ethics and tolerance of ethnic diversity. This paper aims to test if selected economic indicators might influence international migration. To this end a time series analysis was performed with time series regression model, where lagged values of various macroeconomic indicators were tested for a significant impact on migration flows. This paper also cast a light on U.S. labour migration's legislation and history, as well as current migrant stock characteristics. It gives specific attention to Polish migrant population, as Polish Americans constitute the largest Polish diaspora worldwide. The results of the analysis show that U.S. immigration volumes are sensitive to American unemployment rate and American GDP growth (pull factors). However, analysing Polish migration volumes to the U.S. a significant correlation with selected American indicators was not revealed. On the contrary, Polish migration flows to the U.S. were correlated with Polish economic growth and the Polish unemployment rate fluctuations (push factors).

scholarly journals Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Choi ◽  
J. Kim ◽  
I. Ahn
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Seasonal Influenza ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Influenza Surveillance ◽  
The U.S

AbstractTo identify countries that have seasonal patterns similar to the time series of influenza surveillance data in the United States and other countries, and to forecast the 2018–2019 seasonal influenza outbreak in the U.S. using linear regression, auto regressive integrated moving average, and deep learning. We collected the surveillance data of 164 countries from 2010 to 2018 using the FluNet database. Data for influenza-like illness (ILI) in the U.S. were collected from the Fluview database. This cross-correlation study identified the time lag between the two time-series. Deep learning was performed to forecast ILI, total influenza, A, and B viruses after 26 weeks in the U.S. The seasonal influenza patterns in Australia and Chile showed a high correlation with those of the U.S. 22 weeks and 28 weeks earlier, respectively. The R2 score of DNN models for ILI for validation set in 2015–2019 was 0.722 despite how hard it is to forecast 26 weeks ahead. Our prediction models forecast that the ILI for the U.S. in 2018–2019 may be later and less severe than those in 2017–2018, judging from the influenza activity for Australia and Chile in 2018. It allows to estimate peak timing, peak intensity, and type-specific influenza activities for next season at 40th week. The correlation for seasonal influenza among Australia, Chile, and the U.S. could be used to decide on influenza vaccine strategy six months ahead in the U.S.

Tax reform initiated by D. Trump: Economic and social aspects

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (3) ◽  
pp. 693-720
Author(s):  
Elena Yu. MAKUSHINA ◽  
Dar'ya M. KARMANOVA ◽  
Aleksei S. KUCHER
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
The United States ◽  
Subsequent Increase ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Subject. The article addresses the tax reform of 2017, initiated by D. Trump. Objectives. The aim is to determine the relationship between the total volume of tax revenues to the budget of the U.S. Government and the growth of U.S. GDP in the long run. Methods. To identify the impact of the tax reform on the investment climate in the country and the subsequent GDP growth, we formulate a hypothesis and propose a regression model. The quarterly data from 04.01.1960 to 07.01.2019 serve as a statistical sampling, published by financial departments of the U.S. Office of Management and Budget and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The study rests on the econometric analysis enabling to identify the impact of the volume of tax revenues from the corporate income tax and individual income taxes on the level of the GDP of the United States. Results. In the short term, we observe a decrease in tax revenues and a subsequent increase in the budget deficit, in the long term – an increase in business activity of the country, a growth in foreign direct investment, and, consequently, an increase in the GDP. The paper offers a model for assessing the economic growth of the GDP of the United States, in which tax predictors were used in combination with macroeconomic indicators. Conclusions. The experience of the United States and the results of this study may be used by the governments of developing countries and experts in the field of taxation for tax policy development.

scholarly journals Technology Shocks and Unemployment in the Last Recession

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Pedro S. Amaral
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Oecd Country ◽  
The United States ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Unemployment Rates ◽  
The Past ◽  
Increased Sensitivity ◽  
The U.S

In the latest recession, unemployment rates in the United States increased at a faster pace than in the average OECD country. Since the unemployment rate has been more sensitive to technological shocks in the United States in the past than in other OECD countries, I investigated whether increased sensitivity to such shocks was the reason for the recent relative increase in the U.S. unemployment rate. I find this was not the case.

scholarly journals Migration Fears in the United States and the Geopolitical Risk Index

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 504-513
Author(s):  
Christopher Olds
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Intergroup Conflict ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Time Series Analyses ◽  
The U.S

This study contrasts a publicly available measure of migration fears in the United States with a publicly available measure of geopolitical risk, a barometer of concern about possible disruptions to peace in international relations. The time series analyses performed on information spanning between 1990 and 2019 suggest that a change in migration fears in the U.S. increases the level of geopolitical risk, such that the U.S. appears to perceive migrants as potentially threatening and responds with an aggressive posture in interactions with other nations. The findings of the study are aligned with theories in existing academic literature about fear-induced aggression and intergroup conflict.

scholarly journals Application of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (ARIMAX) with Calendar Variation Effect Method for Forecasting Chocolate Data in Indonesia and the United States

2022 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 224-236
Author(s):  
Andy Rezky Pratama Syam
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Good Ability ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Time Series Method ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing

Forecasting chocolate consumption is required by producers in preparing the amount of production each month. The tradition of Valentine, Christmas and Eid al-Fitr which are closely related to chocolate makes it impossible to predict chocolate by using the Classical Time Series method. Especially for Eid al-Fitr, the determination follows the Hijri calendar and each year advances 10 days on the Masehi calendar, so that every three years Eid al-Fitr will occur in a different month. Based on this, the chocolate forecasting will show a variation calendar effect. The method used in modeling and forecasting chocolate in Indonesia and the United States is the ARIMAX (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous) method with Calendar Variation effect. As a comparison, modeling and forecasting are also carried out using the Naïve Trend Linear, Naïve Trend Exponential, Double Exponential Smoothing, Time Series Regression, and ARIMA methods. The ARIMAX method with Calendar Variation Effect produces a very precise MAPE value in predicting chocolate data in Indonesia and the United States. The resulting MAPE value is below 10 percent, so it can be concluded that this method has a very good ability in forecasting.

scholarly journals Forecasting the Existence of Chocolate with Variation and Seasonal Calendar Effects Using the Classic Time Series Approach

2022 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-250
Author(s):  
I Gusti Bagus Ngurah Diksa
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Series ◽  
The United States ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Time Series Regression ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
Double Exponential ◽  
Time Series Approach ◽  
Double Exponential Smoothing ◽  
Chocolate Cake

Chocolate is the raw material for making cakes, so consumption of chocolate also increases on Eid al-Fitr. However, this is different in the United States where the tradition of sharing chocolate cake is carried out on Christmas. To monitor the existence of this chocolate can be through the movement of data on Google Trends. This study aims to predict the existence of chocolate from the Google trend where the use of chocolate by the community fluctuates according to the calendar variance and seasonal rhythm. The method used is classic time series, namely nave, double exponential smoothing, multiplicative decomposition, addictive decomposition, holt winter multiplicative, holt winter addictive, time series regression, hybrid time series, ARIMA, and ARIMAX. Based on MAPE in sample, the best time series model to model the existence of chocolate in Indonesia is ARIMAX (1,0,0) while for the United States it is Hybrid Time Series Regression-ARIMA(2,1,[10]). For forecasting the existence of chocolate in Indonesia, the best models in forecasting are ARIMA (([11],[12]),1,1) and Naïve Seasonal. In contrast to the best forecasting model for the existence of chocolate in the United States, namely Hybrid Naïve Seasonal-SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,0,1)12 Hybrid Time Series Regression- ARIMA(2,1,[10]), Time Series Regression, Winter Multiplicative, ARIMAX([3],0,0).  

An American Language

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosina Lozano
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Spanish Language ◽  
Spanish Speakers ◽  
Language Recognition ◽  
Political Language ◽  
Political Issue ◽  
History Of ◽  
The U.S

An American Language is a political history of the Spanish language in the United States. The nation has always been multilingual and the Spanish language in particular has remained as an important political issue into the present. After the U.S.-Mexican War, the Spanish language became a language of politics as Spanish speakers in the U.S. Southwest used it to build territorial and state governments. In the twentieth century, Spanish became a political language where speakers and those opposed to its use clashed over what Spanish's presence in the United States meant. This book recovers this story by using evidence that includes Spanish language newspapers, letters, state and territorial session laws, and federal archives to profile the struggle and resilience of Spanish speakers who advocated for their language rights as U.S. citizens. Comparing Spanish as a language of politics and as a political language across the Southwest and noncontiguous territories provides an opportunity to measure shifts in allegiance to the nation and exposes differing forms of nationalism. Language concessions and continued use of Spanish is a measure of power. Official language recognition by federal or state officials validates Spanish speakers' claims to US citizenship. The long history of policies relating to language in the United States provides a way to measure how U.S. visions of itself have shifted due to continuous migration from Latin America. Spanish-speaking U.S. citizens are crucial arbiters of Spanish language politics and their successes have broader implications on national policy and our understanding of Americans.

Palestine Unbound

2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 130-134
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Human Rights ◽  
Task Force ◽  
The United States ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Tel Aviv ◽  
The Us ◽  
Intention To Move ◽  
Arab Israeli Conflict ◽  
The U.S

This section, updated regularly on the blog Palestine Square, covers popular conversations related to the Palestinians and the Arab-Israeli conflict during the quarter 16 November 2017 to 15 February 2018: #JerusalemIstheCapitalofPalestine went viral after U.S. president Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and announced his intention to move the U.S. embassy there from Tel Aviv. The arrest of Palestinian teenager Ahed Tamimi for slapping an Israeli soldier also prompted a viral campaign under the hashtag #FreeAhed. A smaller campaign protested the exclusion of Palestinian human rights from the agenda of the annual Creating Change conference organized by the US-based National LGBTQ Task Force in Washington. And, UNRWA publicized its emergency funding appeal, following the decision of the United States to slash funding to the organization, with the hashtag #DignityIsPriceless.

The French Way

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard F. Kuisel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
French Language ◽  
French Cinema ◽  
Free Markets ◽  
Technology Sector ◽  
Aids Epidemic ◽  
Political Reality ◽  
Politics And Culture ◽  
The U.S

There are over 1,000 McDonald's on French soil. Two Disney theme parks have opened near Paris in the last two decades. And American-inspired vocabulary such as “le weekend” has been absorbed into the French language. But as former French president Jacques Chirac put it: “The U.S. finds France unbearably pretentious. And we find the U.S. unbearably hegemonic.” Are the French fascinated or threatened by America? They Americanize yet are notorious for expressions of anti-Americanism. From McDonald's and Coca-Cola to free markets and foreign policy, this book looks closely at the conflicts and contradictions of France's relationship to American politics and culture. The book shows how the French have used America as both yardstick and foil to measure their own distinct national identity. France has charted its own path: it has welcomed America's products but rejected American policies; assailed Americ's “jungle capitalism” while liberalizing its own economy; attacked “Reaganomics” while defending French social security; and protected French cinema, television, food, and language even while ingesting American pop culture. The book examines France's role as an independent ally of the United States, but he also considers the country's failures in influencing the Reagan, Bush, and Clinton administrations. Whether investigating France's successful information technology sector or its spurning of American expertise during the AIDS epidemic, the book asks if this insistence on a French way represents a growing distance between Europe and the United States or a reaction to American globalization. Exploring cultural trends, values, public opinion, and political reality, this book delves into the complex relationship between two modern nations.

Latino Catholicism

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Matovina
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Sixteenth Century ◽  
Catholic Church ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
The United States ◽  
Societal Impact ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Public Debates ◽  
The U.S

Most histories of Catholicism in the United States focus on the experience of Euro-American Catholics, whose views on social issues have dominated public debates. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the Latino Catholic experience in America from the sixteenth century to today, and offers the most in-depth examination to date of the important ways the U.S. Catholic Church, its evolving Latino majority, and American culture are mutually transforming one another. This book highlights the vital contributions of Latinos to American religious and social life, demonstrating in particular how their engagement with the U.S. cultural milieu is the most significant factor behind their ecclesial and societal impact.

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