scholarly journals PENGARUH TENAGA KERJA INDONESIA DI LUAR NEGERI DAN REMITANSI TERHADAP PDB PER KAPITA DI INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 231-248
Author(s):  
Ade Eka Afriska ◽  
T. Zulham ◽  
Taufiq C. Dawood
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
International Finance ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Money Transfer ◽  
Per Capita

Money transfer or remittances is one of the main sources of international finance that sometimes exceed the flow of foreign direct investment. This research aims to observe the influence of TKI and the remittance to GDP per Capita in Indonesia by using time series data from the years 1990-2016. Method of the research used Autoregressive Distributed Lagged (ARDL). In Indonesia, the money transfer (remittance) is second after oil and gas (state budget sources or APBN). The result showed that the TKI and positive and significant influential remmitance to GDP per capita Indonesia. Although GDP per capita increased Indonesia result of remittance, but government should increase employment in Indonesia so that Indonesia does not labor must fight and workabroad.Keywords: Remittance, TKI, GDP Per capita, the ARDL.AbstrakPengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan salah satu sumber keuangan internasional utama yang terkadang melebihi arus investasi langsung asing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengamati pengaruh TKI dan remitansi terhadap PDB Per Kapita di Indonesia dengan menggunakan data time series dari tahun 1990-2016. Metode analisis yang digunakan yaitu Autoregressive DistributedLagged (ARDL). Di Indonesia, pengiriman uang (remitansi) merupakan sumber APBN kedua setelah Migas. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa TKI dan remitansi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap PDB per kapita Indonesia. Meskipun PDB per Kapita Indonesia meningkat akibat dari remitansi, akan tetapi pemerintah harus meningkatkan lapangan pekerjaan di Indonesia agar tenaga kerja Indonesia tidak harus berjuang dan bekerja di luar negeri

scholarly journals DETERMINASI EKSPOR NON MIGAS INDONESIA KE JEPANG

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Soeharjoto Soeharjoto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Capita Income ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Income ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Per Capita

<em></em><em><em>This study aims to determine the factors that affect Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan. The variables used are imports, exchange rates, per capita income, inflation and non-oil exports of Indonesia to Japan</em>. <em>The analytical method used is regression analysis with data used for quarterly time series data from 2005-2016.</em> <em>The results are variable imports of raw and auxiliary materials, cycles, inflation, real Japanese GDP, and the population is able to explain Indonesia's non-oil exports to Japan by 31.3 percent. Imports, exchange rates, per capita income and inflation have a positive and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports to Japan.</em></em><em> </em>

scholarly journals ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING MODELS FOR AIR TRAFFIC PASSENGER OF INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 303
Author(s):  
Viktor Suryan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Transport Services ◽  
Airline Passengers ◽  
Per Capita

One of the major benefits of the air transport services operating in bigger countries is the fact that they provide a vital social economic linkage. This study is an attempt to establish the determinants of the passenger air traffic in Indonesia. The main objective of the study is to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of panel data and to determine the economic variables that affect the number of airline passengers using the econometrics model of projection with an emphasis on the use of time series data. This research also predicts the upcoming number of air traffic passenger until 2030. Air transportation and the economic activity in a country are interdependent. This work first uses the data at the country level and then at the selected airport level for review. The methodology used in this study has adopted the study for both normal regression and panel data regression techniques. Once all these steps are performed, the final equation is taken up for the forecast of the passenger inflow data in the Indonesian airports. To forecast the same, the forecasted numbers of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and population (independent variables were chosen as a part of the literature review exercise) are used. The result of this study shows the GDP per capita have significant related to a number of passengers which the elasticity 2.23 (time-series data) and 1.889 for panel data. The exchange rate variable is unrelated to a number of passengers as shown in the value of elasticity. In addition, the total of population gives small value for the elasticity. Moreover, the number of passengers is also affected by the dummy variable (deregulation). With three scenarios: low, medium and high for GDP per capita, the percentage of growth for total number of air traffic passenger from the year 2015 to 2030 is 199.3%, 205.7%, and 320.9% respectively.

Comparative Study on BRIC Carbon Dioxide Emissions - Econometric Empirical Test Based on Cross-Century Time Series Data

2012 ◽  
Vol 616-618 ◽  
pp. 1512-1515
Author(s):  
Wei Hua Du
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Total Carbon ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Per Capita

Take for example the BRIC economies: Brazil, Russia, India and China. We investigated the time series data on the relationship between carbon dioxide emission and economic growth in these fast-growing developing countries by both comparative statics and comparative dynamics. The results show that there is the monotonic relationship between total carbon dioxide emissions, carbon dioxide emissions per capita and per capita GDP in any one of the BRIC countries. And there is decreasing relationship between the carbon dioxide emissions per unit GDP and per capita GDP.

scholarly journals Testing the Existence of the Ricardian Equivalence in Ghana in this 21st Century

1970 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-27
Author(s):  
Okwan Frank ◽  
Kovacs Peter
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ricardian Equivalence ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita

The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis formulated by a classical British economist David Ricardo argues that a reduced tax now is a tax increase in the future, the substitution of debt for current taxes has no effect on aggregate demand. The main objective of this paper is to examine empirically the existence of the Ricardian equivalency in Ghana by using time series data running from 1990 to 2017 and ARDL bound testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Model framework developed by Pesaran and Shin (1995,1999). We examined the long run relationship between the dependent variable household final consumption expenditure and independent variables government expenditure, deficit, GDP per capita and gross debt. The long run results showed a positive and significant relationship between GDP per capita and household consumption expenditure. The result of analysis supports the Keynesian conventional theory and found strong evidence against the existence of the Ricardian Equivalency Hypothesis in Ghana.

scholarly journals PERAMALAN EKSPOR NONMIGAS DENGAN VARIASI KALENDER ISLAM MENGGUNAKAN X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (Studi Kasus: Ekspor Nonmigas Periode Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2017)

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 236-247
Author(s):  
Eka Lestari ◽  
Tatik Widiharih ◽  
Rita Rahmawati
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Holiday Effect ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Loading And Unloading

Non-oil and gas exports are one of the largest foreign exchange earners for Indonesia. Non-oil and gas exports always experience a decline in the month of Eid Al-Fitr due to delays in the delivery of export goods because the loading and unloading of goods at the port is reduced during Eid Al-Fitr. The shift of the Eid Al-Fitr month on the data will form a pattern or season with an unequal period called the moving holiday effect. The time series forecasting method that usually used the ARIMA method. Because the ARIMA method only suitable for time series data with the same seasonal period and can’t handle the moving holiday effect, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS method used two steps. First, regARIMA modeling is a linear regression between time series data and the weight of Eid Al-Fitr and the residuals follow the ARIMA process. The weighting is based on three conditions, namely pre_holiday, post_holiday, and multiple. Second, X-12-ARIMA decomposition method for seasonal adjustments that produces trend-cycle components, seasonal, and irregular. Based on the analysis carried out on the monthly non-oil and gas export data for the period January 2013 to December 2017, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (1,1,0) model was obtained in the post_holiday condition as the best model. The forecasting results in 2018 show the largest decline in non-oil and gas exports in June 2018 which coincided with the Eid Al-Fitr holiday. MAPE value of 10.90% is obtained which shows that the forecasting ability is good.Keywords:  time series, non-oil and gas, X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, moving holiday

scholarly journals FDI and long-term economic growth in Egypt

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-74
Author(s):  
Saif Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Wage Structure ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Impact

This research paper aims to empirically analyze the impact of FDI on the long-term economic growth of Egypt. An empirical model was developed to explain the aggregate output, including total labor force, capital stock, foreign direct investment, government expenditure, and the real exchange rate. Annual time-series data from 1990–2013 were then used to estimate the model. Prior to calculating this estimation, the properties of the time series were diagnosed, and an error-correction model was developed and assessed. The overall results suggest that foreign direct investment makes a positive, yet weak and insignificant, contribution to the long-term economic growth of Egypt. This finding warrants further investigation to explore the possible reasons behind it, such as the degree of spillover that FDI has on economic growth and its impact on employment in areas like job creation, wage structure, research, and development.

scholarly journals Emisi Karbon dan Produk Domestik Bruto: Investigasi Hipotesis Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) pada Negara Berpendapatan Menengah di Kawasan ASEAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 230-246
Author(s):  
Muhamad Ameer Noor ◽  
Putu Mahardika Adi Saputra
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Kuznets Curve ◽  
Carbon Emission ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Per Capita

Policymakers in the world are concerned with carbon emission due to the risk of global warming. Many studies on Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) consider carbon emission as a proxy of environmental degradation. This study aimed to investigate the existence of EKC and identify variations of relationships between carbon emissions and GDP per capita in ASEAN middle-income countries. The study was conducted on Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, and Malaysia based on 1971-2014 time series data using a simultaneous model (2SLS) for each country. The main variables studied were GDP per capita, square of GDP per capita, and carbon emission supported by other variables as the controlling variables. Validation on EKC existence was determined by GDP and GDP squared influence on carbon emission, while variations of relationship between GDP and carbon emission were based on the result of simultaneous regressions. The results showed that the existence of the EKC could not be validated in all countries because energy and transportation policies in each country failed to reduce the emission. On the other hand, carbon emission had a positive unidirectional influence on GDP in all countries. The effect of carbon emission coefficient to GDP showed that Thailand ranked the highest in CO2 efficiency, followed by Indonesia, Philippines, and Malaysia. This study recommended that carbon emission reduction policies in the four countries should focus more to easier access to environmentally friendly technology from developed countries for ensuring trade-offs between the economy and environment.

Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth in Vietnam: An Empirical Analysis

2018 ◽  
pp. 32-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dat Tho Tran ◽  
Van Thi Cam Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Balance Of Trade ◽  
The Impact

This study aims at investigating the impact of globalization on economic growth in the case of Vietnam. Empirical analysis is done by using time series data for the period from 1995 to 2014. The paper tested the stationary cointegration of time series data and utilized the error correction modeling technique to determine the short run relationships among economic growth, globalization, foreign direct investment, balance of trade and exchange rate variables. Then, the long run relationship between economic growth and the variables representing economic integration were estimated by ordinary least square. The results show that globalization, measured by the KOF index, promotes economic growth and Vietnam has gained from integrating into the global economy. The overall index of globalization had positively and significantly impacted the economic growth in Vietnam. The results also indicated that economic globalization had a significantly positive effect on economic growth in the period examined. The study further revealed that foreign direct investment and the exchange rate affect economic growth positively whereas balance of trade affects economic growth negatively.

The Influence of FDI on the Market Structure of the Port Industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 590 ◽  
pp. 895-900
Author(s):  
Rong Wu ◽  
Min Tu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Market Structure ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Market Concentration ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment Stock ◽  
Causality Testing

To study the influence of foreign direct investment on market structure, the paper presented a regression model based on the relevant time series data of foreign direct investment stock on the market structure of ports in China during the period of 1991 to 2011. By Cointegration Granger causality testing of foreign direct investment stock and market concentration of the Chinese port industry, we find significant influence of foreign direct investment on the market concentration of the port industry. At the same time while the inflows of FDI increase market concentration, they also further diversify the concentration and increased competition in the port regions studied.

scholarly journals A non-equilibrium formulation of food security resilience

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 160874 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Smerlak ◽  
Bapu Vaitla
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Food Security ◽  
High Frequency ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Security Policies ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Non Equilibrium

Resilience, the ability to recover from adverse events, is of fundamental importance to food security. This is especially true in poor countries, where basic needs are frequently threatened by economic, environmental and health shocks. An empirically sound formalization of the concept of food security resilience, however, is lacking. Here, we introduce a general non-equilibrium framework for quantifying resilience based on the statistical notion of persistence. Our approach can be applied to any food security variable for which high-frequency time-series data are available. We illustrate our method with per capita kilocalorie availability for 161 countries between 1961 and 2011. We find that resilient countries are not necessarily those that are characterized by high levels or less volatile fluctuations of kilocalorie intake. Accordingly, food security policies and programmes will need to be tailored not only to welfare levels at any one time, but also to long-run welfare dynamics.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document