scholarly journals Measuring Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector

2014 ◽  
pp. 117-125
Author(s):  
M. A. Shchepeleva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Holistic Understanding

The article discusses quantitative methods of assessing systemic risk of the financial sector and the possibilities of their practical application. Systemic risk, which is manifested in the failure of financial services provision and deterioration of the financial system, is a complex concept that can be realized in several forms: the risk of infection, exogenous shock, leading to a simultaneous decline in all financial institutions, and the risk of «financial fragility accumulation". The main causes of the imbalances in the system are unjustified loose standards of risk assessment during economic booms, procyclical behavior of economic agents and asymmetric information. The spread of the risk is associated with the financial accelerator mechanism. Realization of systemic risk in the financial sector leads to serious negative consequences for the real sector not only in the national economy, but also abroad. Quantitative methods of risk assessment provide national authorities with useful information for macroprudential supervision aimed at maintaining financial stability. At the same time it is very important that the data used by the regulator is accurate and reliable. After 2008 crisis, a large number of qualitative approaches appeared, but they all reflect only certain aspects of the risk. The article focuses on stress tests, early-warning indicators, network models, VaR- methods and specific indices. According to research, different assessment methods produce different results. In addition, due to insufficient statistical database existing models are good at predicting crises with hindsight, but cannot identify stressful episodes ex-ante. Thus model results should be treated with caution and require further scrutiny. To get a holistic understanding of the systemic risk regulating authorities should apply different quantitative methods together with qualitative approaches and expert judgement.

Financial Risks of the Bank: Assessment and Mechanism of Neutralization

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 6-12
Author(s):  
Nelia Volkova ◽  
◽  
Alina Mukhina ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Risk ◽  
Stable Operation ◽  
Financial Risks ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Conceptual Approach ◽  
Relevant Today ◽  
Banking Institution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Introduction. The issue of financial risk management of commercial banks is quite relevant today, because the activity of banks is the most risky of all. The presence of risks in banking can lead to unexpected losses, namely the loss of own resources. That’s why for the stable operation of the bank without loss the priority is to assess the financial risks, which is the basis for their further neutralization. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to develop conceptual provisions for assessment financial risks and justifying the need to neutralize them. Results. The article analyzes the impact of risks on the financial stability of a banking institution. The main methods of bank risk assessment are considered. All these include the statistical method, the analytical method, the expert method, the analogue method and the combined method. The necessity of neutralization of financial risks in order to avoid negative consequences is substantiated. Also the methods of bank risks neutralization are considered. It should be noted that these methods of neutralization can not only be used, but also supplement the list with new methods must be done, which in the future will protect the bank from the influence of undesirable factors. A conceptual approach to the assessment and neutralization of financial risks is proposed. This conceptual approach aims to ensure effective assessment of the level of risk with their subsequent neutralization Conclusions. Use of a conceptual approach will allow an effective risk assessment and decision-making to avoid or accept risk. Thanks to using this approach, the banking institution will be able to react swiftly to the presence of financial risks and to prevent the occurrence of negative consequences, which may lead to a violation of the financial stability of the bank.

scholarly journals Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hodula ◽  
Lukáš Pfeifer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

Abstract In this paper, we shed some light on the mutual interplay of economic policy and the financial stability objective. We contribute to the intense discussion regarding the influence of fiscal and monetary policy measures on the real economy and the financial sector. We apply a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to Czech macroeconomic data and model the policy interactions in a data-rich environment. Our findings can be summarized in three main points: First, loose economic policies (especially monetary policy) may translate into a more stable financial sector, albeit only in the short term. In the medium term, an expansion-focused mix of monetary and fiscal policy may contribute to systemic risk accumulation, by substantially increasing credit dynamics and house prices. Second, we find that fiscal and monetary policy impact the financial sector in differential magnitudes and time horizons. And third, we confirm that systemic risk materialization might cause significant output losses and deterioration of public finances, trigger deflationary pressures, and increase the debt service ratio. Overall, our findings provide some empirical support for countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.

scholarly journals Institutional Arrangements for Fintech Regulation and Supervision

FinTech Notes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles Taylor ◽  
Christopher Wilson ◽  
Eija Holttinen ◽  
Anastasiia Morozova
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Conflicts Of Interest ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Dual Roles ◽  
Regulation And Supervision ◽  
Regulatory Architecture ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
Policy Objectives

Fintech developments are shaking up mandates within the existing regulatory architecture. It is not uncommon for financial sector agencies to have multiple policy objectives. Most often the policy objectives for these agencies reflect prudential, conduct and financial stability policy objectives. In some cases, financial sector agencies are also allocated responsibility for enhancing competition and innovation. When it comes to fintech, countries differ to some extent in the manner they balance the objectives of promoting the development of fintech and regulating it. Countries see fintech as a means of achieving multiple policy objectives sometimes with lesser or greater degrees of emphasis, such as accelerating development and spurring financial inclusion, while others may support innovation with the objective of promoting competition and efficiency in the provision of financial services. This difference in emphasis may impact institutional structures, including the allocation of staff resources. Conflicts of interest arising from dual roles are sometimes managed through legally established prioritization of objectives or establishment of separate internal reporting lines for supervision and development.

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—Oil Prices, Financial Stability, and the Use of Countercyclical Macroprudential Policies in the GCC

Policy Papers ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (62) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Systemic Risks ◽  
Wide Range

Economic and financial developments in the GCC economies are interwoven with oil price movements. GCC economies are highly dependent on oil and gas exports. Oil price upturns lead to higher oil revenues, stronger fiscal and external positions, and higher government spending. This boosts corporate profitability and equity prices and strengthens bank balance sheets, but can also lead to the buildup of systemic vulnerabilities in the financial sector. Banks in the GCC are well-capitalized, liquid, and profitable at present, and well-positioned to manage structural systemic risks. However, oil-macro-financial linkages mean that asset quality and liquidity in the financial system may deteriorate in a low oil price environment and financial sector stress may emerge. The scope for amplification of oil price shocks through the financial sector suggests a role for a countercyclical approach to macroprudential policies. Countercyclical macroprudential policy can prove useful to reduce the buildup of systemic risks in the financial sector during upswings, and to cushion against disruption to financial services during periods of financial sector stress. The GCC countries have considerable experience with implementing a wide range of macroprudential policies, but these policies have not generally been adjusted through the cycle. GCC central banks implemented several macroprudential measures before the global financial crisis and have continued to enhance their macroprudential frameworks and toolkits to limit systemic financial sector risks. Although there is some evidence of macroprudential tools being adjusted in a countercyclical way, most of the tools have not been adjusted over the financial cycle. Further enhancements to the GCC macroprudential framework are needed to support the countercyclical use of these policies. A comprehensive and established framework, supported by strong institutional capacity, is essential for countercyclical macroprudential policies. This framework should provide clear assignment of responsibilities and guidance on how policies will be implemented to maintain financial stability and manage systemic risks over the financial cycle. Addressing data gaps and the further development of reliable early warning indicators in signaling potential systemic stress are needed to help guide the countercyclical use of a broad set of macroprudential policies. Expanding the countercyclical policy toolkit and its coverage can help address emerging financial sector risks. The implementation of countercyclical capital buffers and dynamic loan loss provisions could boost resilience in line with systemic risks faced in GCC economies. At the same time, using existing macroprudential policies countercyclically would prove useful to address emerging financial sector risks in a more targeted way. Expanding the coverage of macroprudential tools to nonbanks can help boost effectiveness by reducing leakages.

scholarly journals Central Banks, Systemic Risk and Financial Sector Structural Reform

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saule T. Omarova
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Structural Reform ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Financial Industry ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Fundamental Pattern

This chapter contribution to an edited volume examines financial sector structural reform as a critical, though largely under-appreciated to date, dimension of central banks’ post-crisis systemic risk prevention agenda. By limiting the range of permissible transactions or organizational affiliations among different types of financial firms, structural reforms alter the fundamental pattern of interconnectedness in the financial system. In that sense, the chapter argues, reforming the institutional structure of the financial industry operates as a deeper form of the currently evolving macroprudential regulation. The chapter identifies three principal models that form a continuum of potential financial sector structural reform choices and applies this conceptual framework to analysis of post-crisis structural reforms in the U.K., EU, and U.S. It further examines how deeply issues of financial industry structure are embedded in central banks’ regulatory and policy agenda and, in light of this connection, discusses potential implications of current structural reforms for central banks’ post-crisis financial stability mandate.

Understanding Financial Interconnectedness

Policy Papers ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Executive Board ◽  
Global Finance ◽  
Systemic Risks ◽  
Fault Lines ◽  
Financial Interconnectedness ◽  
Critical Fault

This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.

scholarly journals Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Europe

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (03) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Arena ◽  
Tingyun Chen ◽  
Seung Choi ◽  
Nan Geng ◽  
Cheikh Gueye ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Macroprudential Policies

Macroprudential policy in Europe aligns with the objective of limiting systemic risk, namely the risk of widespread disruption to the provision of financial services that is caused by an impairment of all or parts of the financial system and that can cause serious negative consequences for the real economy.

scholarly journals CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO CREATING A RISK-BASED BUDGET CONTROL SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Iryna NEDBALIUK
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Control System ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Budget Control ◽  
Budgetary Control ◽  
Oriented System

Introduction. The current state of the development of the budgetary system is characterized by a number of controversial and uncoordinated moments that increase the possibility of the emergence of budgetary risks and require minimization of possible budget losses associated with the existence of budgetary risks through the formation of a risk-based budget control system. Purpose. Formulation of conceptual approaches to the creation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control. Results. The article defines the notion of “budget risk” and analyzes the risk factors of the budget system depending on the stage of the budget process. The components of the risk management process are determined, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control. A risk-based budget control system has been established, it should focus on minimizing the negative consequences of risk in accordance with the above risk classification; identification of budgetary risks at the planning stage, formation and approval, execution and analysis of the latter's results; risk assessment by qualitative and quantitative methods. Conclusions. On the basis of the definition of the concept of “fiduciary risk” and its main characteristics, it is possible to distinguish conceptual approaches to the creation of a riskoriented system of budget control, which include: – firstly, the analysis of the risk factors of the budgetary system depending on the stage of the budget process; – secondly, compliance with the risk management process, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control; – thirdly, the formation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control, which should be guided by the minimization of the negative consequences of the risk in accordance with the above classification of risk; identification of budget risks at the planning, formation and approval stage, implementation and analysis of the results of the latter; Assessing the level of risk by qualitative and quantitative methods, including monitoring and risk assessment at national and local level. Thus, the introduction of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control is not aimed at eliminating the consequences of negative external and internal influences, but to prevent their occurrence will reduce the negative consequences of violations in the system of budgetary control.

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