scholarly journals Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
pp. 195-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Hodula ◽  
Lukáš Pfeifer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

Abstract In this paper, we shed some light on the mutual interplay of economic policy and the financial stability objective. We contribute to the intense discussion regarding the influence of fiscal and monetary policy measures on the real economy and the financial sector. We apply a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to Czech macroeconomic data and model the policy interactions in a data-rich environment. Our findings can be summarized in three main points: First, loose economic policies (especially monetary policy) may translate into a more stable financial sector, albeit only in the short term. In the medium term, an expansion-focused mix of monetary and fiscal policy may contribute to systemic risk accumulation, by substantially increasing credit dynamics and house prices. Second, we find that fiscal and monetary policy impact the financial sector in differential magnitudes and time horizons. And third, we confirm that systemic risk materialization might cause significant output losses and deterioration of public finances, trigger deflationary pressures, and increase the debt service ratio. Overall, our findings provide some empirical support for countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.

The Impact of US Monetary Policy and Other External Shocks on the Hong Kong Economy

2019 ◽  
pp. 239-260
Author(s):  
Hongyi Chen ◽  
Andrew Tsang
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Loan Quality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Monetary Policy

This chapter uses the factor-augmented vector autoregression framework to study the impact on the Hong Kong economy of the diverging monetary policies by the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the slowdown of the Mainland economy. The empirical results show that shocks in US monetary policy rate mainly affect interest rate-sensitive sectors in Hong Kong and that monetary easing from the ECB and the BoJ somewhat offsets the impact of tightening of the Fed. Real variables such as real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are more sensitive to the economic slowdown in Mainland China. However, Hong Kong’s financial stability, particularly with regard to loan quality, banks’ capital and liquidity, is well maintained by macroprudential policies, suggesting that Hong Kong’s financial system is resilient to external shocks.

scholarly journals The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 102 (4) ◽  
pp. 690-704 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Paul
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Asset Prices ◽  
House Prices ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Policy Shocks

This paper studies how monetary policy jointly affects asset prices and the real economy in the United States. I develop an estimator that uses high-frequency surprises as a proxy for the structural monetary policy shocks. This is achieved by integrating the surprises into a vector autoregressive model as an exogenous variable. I use current short-term rate surprises because these are least affected by an information effect. When allowing for time-varying model parameters, I find that compared to the response of output, the reaction of stock and house prices to monetary policy shocks was particularly low before the 2007–2009 financial crisis.

scholarly journals Review of the Bank of Russia – NES Workshop ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (4) ◽  
pp. 124-136
Author(s):  
Ivan Khotulev ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Credit Spreads ◽  
Information Flows ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Central Bankers ◽  
Liquidity Pricing

In October 2021, the Bank of Russia and the New Economic School (NES) hosted a joint international online workshop titled ‘Main Challenges in Banking: Risks, Liquidity, Pricing, and Digital Currencies’. Five papers were presented. They addressed various issues in banking which are currently of paramount importance to central bankers, market participants, and academics: the connections between systemic risk and the real economy, the digitalisation of finance and information asymmetries, credit spreads and monetary policy, the improvement of information flows and outcomes in credit markets, the introduction of central bank digital currencies, and bank intermediation.

scholarly journals Financialization and unconventional monetary policy: a financial-network analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1385-1428
Author(s):  
Chiara Perillo ◽  
Stefano Battiston
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Unconventional Monetary Policy ◽  
The Real ◽  
Recent Debate ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Net Flows

Abstract Over the last decades, both advanced and emerging economies have experienced the emergence of the phenomenon known as financialization, that, until some time ago, was generally considered beneficial for the economy. The 2007-2008 crisis and the severe post-crisis recession called into question the assumptions underlying the positive perception of the role played by financialization in the economy. In particular, the effects of financialization on financial stability and inequality are now widely recognized. A recent debate focused on the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy tools in transferring their effects on the financial sphere to the economic sphere (e.g., via stimulating the transmission of resources from the banking system to the real economy). Among these unconventional policy measures, Quantitative Easing (QE) has been recently implemented by the European Central Bank (ECB). In this context, two questions deserve more attention in the literature. First, to what extent QE may generate net flows of additional resources to the real economy. Second, to what extent QE may also alter the pattern of intra-financial exposures among financial actors and what are the implications in terms of financialization. Here, we address these two questions by mapping and analyzing the euro area multilayer macro-network of financial exposures among institutional sectors across financial instruments (i.e., loans, bonds, equity, and insurance and pension schemes) and we illustrate our approach on recently available data. We then test the effect of the implementation of ECB’s QE on some novel measures of financialization that we derive from the time evolution of the financial linkages in the multilayer macro-network of the euro area.

Impacts of Global Financial Crisis and Changes in Monetary Policy of Central Banks

2016 ◽  
pp. 474-504
Author(s):  
İsmail Şiriner ◽  
Keremet Shaiymbetova
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Monetary Regimes

The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) has hit developed and developing countries through a number of transmission channel. Some impacts are already disappearing while others are still to strike. In MENA region developing countries to experience the crisis were those with the most globally integrated financial sectors. Next came the impact on trade, as volumes and prices of commodities and manufactures collapsed across the globe. Successful economic policies pursued in the past do not promise these countries' immunity from the crisis. In fact, some MENA countries have already shown a limited capacity to learn from other countries' previous financial crises. Post-crisis spillovers and heightened capital flows have triggered a search for alternative monetary policy frameworks, especially for Turkey and Israel in MENA economies. This paper analyzes the review of the region's monetary regimes and policies, including: monetary policy expansion of the monetary policy framework in promoting financial stability alongside the primary price stability objective.

scholarly journals Are interest rate changes comoving with financial cycle?

2021 ◽  
Vol 71 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-277
Author(s):  
Paweł Smaga
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Concordance Index ◽  
Expansion Phase ◽  
Financial Cycle ◽  
Widespread Phenomenon ◽  
Credit Cycle

AbstractWe explore to what extent official interest rate changes can potentially in a procyclical manner impact different financial cycle indicators (credit/GDP, debt service ratio, house prices and stock market indices). We test this on data covering 1995−2016 in 21 countries and the euro area using the Concordance index and Monetary policy procyclicality ratio. Results show that this was not a widespread phenomenon, but there was significant heterogenenity across countries. The procyclicality of interest rate changes was usually higher when financial cycle gaps were increasing and lower when they were decreasing. On average, central banks in several larger economies were running potentially less procyclical monetary policy than those in the smaller ones. The resulting propensity of conflicts between achieving price and financial stability by central banks was low, as only in 10% of the cases the objectives were conflicting (usually when inflation was below the target and the credit cycle was in an expansion phase).

scholarly journals Financial stability and liquidity risks in the banking sector across the CEMAC region

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 343-354
Author(s):  
Henri Kouam
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Capital Assets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Impact

How does credit from the financial sector and claims on the central government affect banking sector liquidity and financial stability risks? This paper constructs an algorithm, which investigates the impact of domestic credit from the financial sector, bank to capital assets ratio, claims on the central government on banking sector liquidity – a proxy for financial stability. The results show a positive and statistically significant impact of the capital assets ratio on the bank's liquidity of 3.1%. It equally finds that domestic credit and claims on central government hurt bank liquidity, notably of -0.15% and -2.5%, respectively. The study recommends that commercial banks invest in higher-value domestic projects to improve their profitability over the long-run, thereby boosting financial stability. Furthermore, the central bank should make additional liquidity for banks contingent on the amount of credit they provide to the real economy.

scholarly journals Urgensi Berdirinya Bank Sentral Syariah Di Indonesia

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-170
Author(s):  
Agus Pandoman
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Gold Standard ◽  
Islamic Finance ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Historical Approach ◽  
The Real ◽  
Basic Philosophy

Bank Indonesia has been established as a central bank that develops dual monetary policy. This paper identifies the challenges faced in Islamic financial policy that are different from other monetary policies. With a historical approach to law it can be concluded that there is still an opportunity for BI to develop Islamic finance in Indonesia by reinforcing its basic philosophy of returning to the real economy in the gold standard. Some suggestions for the implementation of the technical treatment of finance have been raised, but there is a need to accompany the implementation by stabilizing all Islamic-oriented central bank laws.

scholarly journals House prices and the macroeconomic environment in Turkey: The examination of a dynamic relationship

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (215) ◽  
pp. 81-110 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Yıldırım ◽  
Mehmet İvrendi
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Share Prices ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Turkish Economy ◽  
Market Variables

The aim of this paper is to examine the dynamic relationship between house prices, income, interest rates, housing permits, and share prices in Turkey, using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) models. This paper uses both monthly and quarterly data for the Turkish economy and applies four different SVAR models to reveal this dynamic relationship over the 2003-2016 period. The results show statistically significant and substantial relationships between the variables. The analysis also shows that house prices and housing permits as housing market variables are very sensitive to monetary policy and income shocks. The key finding of the study for policymakers is that a change in mortgage rates is the factor that most changes house prices. The study also shows that the housing market plays an important role in transferring monetary policy to the real economy in Turkey.

scholarly journals Measuring Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector

2014 ◽  
pp. 117-125
Author(s):  
M. A. Shchepeleva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Holistic Understanding

The article discusses quantitative methods of assessing systemic risk of the financial sector and the possibilities of their practical application. Systemic risk, which is manifested in the failure of financial services provision and deterioration of the financial system, is a complex concept that can be realized in several forms: the risk of infection, exogenous shock, leading to a simultaneous decline in all financial institutions, and the risk of «financial fragility accumulation". The main causes of the imbalances in the system are unjustified loose standards of risk assessment during economic booms, procyclical behavior of economic agents and asymmetric information. The spread of the risk is associated with the financial accelerator mechanism. Realization of systemic risk in the financial sector leads to serious negative consequences for the real sector not only in the national economy, but also abroad. Quantitative methods of risk assessment provide national authorities with useful information for macroprudential supervision aimed at maintaining financial stability. At the same time it is very important that the data used by the regulator is accurate and reliable. After 2008 crisis, a large number of qualitative approaches appeared, but they all reflect only certain aspects of the risk. The article focuses on stress tests, early-warning indicators, network models, VaR- methods and specific indices. According to research, different assessment methods produce different results. In addition, due to insufficient statistical database existing models are good at predicting crises with hindsight, but cannot identify stressful episodes ex-ante. Thus model results should be treated with caution and require further scrutiny. To get a holistic understanding of the systemic risk regulating authorities should apply different quantitative methods together with qualitative approaches and expert judgement.

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