scholarly journals CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES TO CREATING A RISK-BASED BUDGET CONTROL SYSTEM

2018 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Iryna NEDBALIUK
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Control System ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Budget Control ◽  
Budgetary Control ◽  
Oriented System

Introduction. The current state of the development of the budgetary system is characterized by a number of controversial and uncoordinated moments that increase the possibility of the emergence of budgetary risks and require minimization of possible budget losses associated with the existence of budgetary risks through the formation of a risk-based budget control system. Purpose. Formulation of conceptual approaches to the creation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control. Results. The article defines the notion of “budget risk” and analyzes the risk factors of the budget system depending on the stage of the budget process. The components of the risk management process are determined, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control. A risk-based budget control system has been established, it should focus on minimizing the negative consequences of risk in accordance with the above risk classification; identification of budgetary risks at the planning stage, formation and approval, execution and analysis of the latter's results; risk assessment by qualitative and quantitative methods. Conclusions. On the basis of the definition of the concept of “fiduciary risk” and its main characteristics, it is possible to distinguish conceptual approaches to the creation of a riskoriented system of budget control, which include: – firstly, the analysis of the risk factors of the budgetary system depending on the stage of the budget process; – secondly, compliance with the risk management process, including identification, qualitative and quantitative risk assessment, risk response planning, risk monitoring and control; – thirdly, the formation of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control, which should be guided by the minimization of the negative consequences of the risk in accordance with the above classification of risk; identification of budget risks at the planning, formation and approval stage, implementation and analysis of the results of the latter; Assessing the level of risk by qualitative and quantitative methods, including monitoring and risk assessment at national and local level. Thus, the introduction of a risk-oriented system of budgetary control is not aimed at eliminating the consequences of negative external and internal influences, but to prevent their occurrence will reduce the negative consequences of violations in the system of budgetary control.

scholarly journals «RISK-PROFILE» OF THE TEST LABORATORY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
V.I. Kravchuk ◽  
◽  
A I. Korobko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Management System ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Profile ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Laboratory Management ◽  
Testing Laboratory ◽  
Risk Assessment Method ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
The Mind

Goal of the study is to improve the laboratory management system. The substantiation of principles classification and assessment of risks are carried out. The mind-activity methodology is used. To achieve the goal it is necessary to determine the source of risk, assess a scale of selected risk impact, establish reference (control) points, assess the risk, develop and implement corrective actions. Research methods. The mind-activity methodology is the basic method for research. Application to the risk management process of testing laboratory activities. The results of the study. The levels of the hierarchy are determined by the level of consequences (low, high, medium) from the onset of a negative situation. The phases are determined by the type (category) of risk by the stage of its determination. Forecasted risks are determined by the method of forecasting for a certain future period of time (for example, the next calendar year). In fact, identified are risks that have been identified and are aimed at the short-term perspective of their emergence. Not detected - risks remain identified and arise from the implementation of inappropriate preventive measures. These risks are stipulated by the uncertainty of the input information in the analysis of risks and the inadequacy of measures to eliminate possible negative consequences. The proposed risk classification system makes it possible to compile a “risk profile” of the laboratory. The "Risk-Profile" of a laboratory is a conditional indicator that characterizes the laboratory's ability to possibly provide unreliable test results. Conclusions. The mind-activity methodology was used. Principles, classification and risk assessment method have been developed for the testing laboratory. This made it possible to establish the relationship between the level of risk, its source and the period of exposure, as well as to identify the most vulnerable elements of the management system at a given time and to find ways to improve and search for opportunities. The scientific value of the study lies in the substantiation of the principles classification and method of risk assessment of the testing laboratory. The practical value of the study lies in the possibility of forming a "risk profile" of the laboratory, provides objective information about the current state of the laboratory management system and indicates possible ways of improvement.

scholarly journals The Proposal of the Process of Safety Analysis for Complex Dynamic Technology Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (Special-Issue) ◽  
pp. 104-108
Author(s):  
Milan Štrbo ◽  
Pavol Tanuška ◽  
Augustín Gese
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Complex Dynamic ◽  
Critical States ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Complex Dynamic Systems

Abstract The aim of this article is the proposal of process of the safety analysis for complex dynamic systems in process of the proposal of control system for safety-critical processes. The method of safety analysis depends on various safety-critical states of system which are system are controlled by models. We propose to use the method SQMD for modeling these states. This method combines qualitative and quantitative methods of modeling states and takes advantage of both methods. The model of the proposal is shown in the diagram. The article includes detailed description of the tasks for each step of analysis.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment and Management Workflow—An Example of the Southwest Regional Partnership

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (7) ◽  
pp. 1908
Author(s):  
Si-Yong Lee ◽  
Ken Hnottavange-Telleen ◽  
Wei Jia ◽  
Ting Xiao ◽  
Hari Viswanathan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Co2 Storage ◽  
Risk Control ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Phase Iii ◽  
Risk Elements ◽  
Response Planning ◽  
Regional Partnership ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

This paper summarizes the risk assessment and management workflow developed and applied to the Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) Phase III Demonstration Project. The risk assessment and management workflow consists of six primary tasks, including management planning, identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, response planning, and monitoring. Within the workflow, the SWP assembled and iteratively updated a risk registry that identifies risks for all major activities of the project. Risk elements were ranked with respect to the potential impact to the project and the likelihood of occurrence. Both qualitative and quantitative risk analyses were performed. To graphically depict the interactions among risk elements and help building risk scenarios, process influence diagrams were used to represent the interactions. The SWP employed quantitative methods of risk analysis including Response Surface Method (RSM), Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE), and the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) toolset. The SWP also developed risk response planning and performed risk control and monitoring to prevent the risks from affecting the project and ensure the effectiveness of risk management. As part of risk control and monitoring, existing and new risks have been tracked and the response plan was subsequently evaluated. Findings and lessons learned from the SWP’s risk assessment and management efforts will provide valuable information for other commercial geological CO2 storage projects.

scholarly journals Measuring Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector

2014 ◽  
pp. 117-125
Author(s):  
M. A. Shchepeleva
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Exogenous Shock ◽  
Qualitative Approaches ◽  
Holistic Understanding

The article discusses quantitative methods of assessing systemic risk of the financial sector and the possibilities of their practical application. Systemic risk, which is manifested in the failure of financial services provision and deterioration of the financial system, is a complex concept that can be realized in several forms: the risk of infection, exogenous shock, leading to a simultaneous decline in all financial institutions, and the risk of «financial fragility accumulation". The main causes of the imbalances in the system are unjustified loose standards of risk assessment during economic booms, procyclical behavior of economic agents and asymmetric information. The spread of the risk is associated with the financial accelerator mechanism. Realization of systemic risk in the financial sector leads to serious negative consequences for the real sector not only in the national economy, but also abroad. Quantitative methods of risk assessment provide national authorities with useful information for macroprudential supervision aimed at maintaining financial stability. At the same time it is very important that the data used by the regulator is accurate and reliable. After 2008 crisis, a large number of qualitative approaches appeared, but they all reflect only certain aspects of the risk. The article focuses on stress tests, early-warning indicators, network models, VaR- methods and specific indices. According to research, different assessment methods produce different results. In addition, due to insufficient statistical database existing models are good at predicting crises with hindsight, but cannot identify stressful episodes ex-ante. Thus model results should be treated with caution and require further scrutiny. To get a holistic understanding of the systemic risk regulating authorities should apply different quantitative methods together with qualitative approaches and expert judgement.

The practical application of design risk assessment models

2003 ◽  
Vol 217 (2) ◽  
pp. 227-234 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Crossland ◽  
J Sims Williams ◽  
C McMahon
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Leading Edge ◽  
Functional Requirements ◽  
Product Model ◽  
Project Risk ◽  
Basic Product ◽  
First Case ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
Technical Risk

This paper describes three case studies of the application of quantitative design risk assessment methods in practice. The studies arose out of a survey of risk practice in design which showed that leading edge companies use quantitative methods of risk assessment in assessing both project risk, which may be defined as the risk to cost and time-scale, and technical risk, which may be defined as the risk that the designed artefact will not meet its functional requirements. The first case study concerns a coastal defence programme and is primarily concerned with technical risk. The second study is concerned with the installation of a replacement bridge and is primarily concerned with project risk. The final study describes an aerospace engine design programme that involved both technical and project risks The paper first presents a generic overview of the risk management process and then describes, for each of the three study domains, how risk is identified, how risk assessment is carried out, including prioritization and uncertainty modelling, what risk treatment steps are undertaken and how risks are monitored. Outcomes in the three studies are shown to be a whole-life cost-benefit uncertainty model for assessing design alternatives, a method for incorporating uncertainty into task criticality as well as task duration in the activity network for a design project and a method for aggregating uncertainty in design attributes over the basic product model.

scholarly journals SELECTION AND APPLICATION OF APPROPRIATE ANALYTICAL METHODS NEEDED TO ASSESS THE RISKS REDUCING THE SECURITY OF THE PROTECTED SYSTEM

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Josef Reitšpís ◽  
Martin Mašľan ◽  
Igor Britchenko
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Analytical Methods ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Continuous Process ◽  
Event Tree ◽  
Event Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Input Information ◽  
Risk Management Process

Risk assessment is one of the prerequisites for understanding its causes and possible consequences. We base our risk assessment on the principles described in the European standard EN 31000 - Risk Management Process. This standard comprehensively describes the continuous activities that are necessary in managing risks and minimizing their possible adverse effects on the operation of the system under investigation. In this activity, it is necessary to first identify the existing risks, then analyze and evaluate the identified risks. In the analysis of existing risks, it is possible to use both qualitative and quantitative analytical methods, or combine them. We use qualitative methods in cases where we do not have a sufficient amount of input information, these are more subjective. Quantitative methods are more accurate, but also more demanding on input information and time. The choice of a suitable analytical method is a basic prerequisite for knowledge of risks and their evaluation. The values of individual risks obtained in this way are the basis for determining the measures that are necessary to minimize them, i.e., to adjust them to an acceptable level. The draft measures are always based on the value of the individual components used to calculate the risk number, as well as on the value of the asset , which needs to be protected. Appropriately chosen analytical methods are one of the basic prerequisites for the consistent application of the principles of risk management, as a continuous process aimed at increasing the overall security of the system under study. In the article, the author describes the procedures used in risk assessment, as well as specific analytical methods that can be used in working with risks. The aim of identifying risk factors is to create a list of events that could cause undesirable disruption to ongoing processes. At this stage, we define all the risks that will be subsequently analyzed and evaluated. When identifying, we can use methods such as, e.g. SWOT, PHA (Preliminary Hazard Analysis) or CA (Checklist Analysis). Methods suitable for determining the causes and creating scenarios for the course of a risk event are ETA (Event Tree Analysis) or FTA (Fault Tree Analysis). The basic analysis of the system can be performed using the FMEA method (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis), which provides a numerical risk assessment. By comparison with the numerical value of the risk that we are willing to accept, we obtain 2 groups of risks. Acceptable, which will be given regular attention and unacceptable, which we will focus on in risk management and we will try to minimize its negative affect on the functioning of the system under study.

scholarly journals ISO 26262 - The Relevance and Importance of Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Safety and Reliability Issues Regarding the Automotive Industry

2010 ◽  
Vol 14-15 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-176
Author(s):  
Marco Schlummer ◽  
Dirk Althaus ◽  
Andreas Braasch ◽  
Arno Meyna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Automotive Industry ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Functional Safety ◽  
Automotive Safety ◽  
Iso 26262 ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Safety And Reliability

ISO 26262 - The Relevance and Importance of Qualitative and Quantitative Methods for Safety and Reliability Issues Regarding the Automotive IndustrySafety and reliability are key issues of today's and future automotive developments, where the involved companies have to deal with increasing functionality and complexity of software-based car functions. New functionalities cannot only be found in the area of driver assistance - most of the new car functions are and will be safety related as for example in vehicle dynamics control or active and passive safety systems. The development and integration of those functions will strengthen the need of safe processes during the system development. The new upcoming automotive standard on functional safety (ISO 26262), which is derived from the generic functional safety standard IEC 61508 to comply with the specific needs to the application sector of E/E-systems in road vehicles, will provide guidance to avoid the increasing risks from systematic faults and random hardware faults by providing feasible processes and requirements. It is evident that aspects and methods of the safety and reliability engineering are implemented and suited methods are performed in the development process at an early stage. This is one of the requirements of the new ISO 26262, which introduces a so called automotive safety lifecycle to handle all those activities that are necessary to guarantee the functional safety of automotive E/E-systems. In the following, a brief overview of the upcoming automotive standard, its new safety life cycle and the connected activities in order to ensure functional safety for safety related systems will be given. The main aim of this paper is to show the relevance and importance of one of the major tasks within the ISO 26262: the process of the hazard analysis and risk assessment as it is currently performed in the automotive industry. With the help of an example from the automotive sector, the basic steps of this method to determine the automotive safety integrity level (ASIL) are explained. Depending on the ASIL, safety requirements need to be derived as a result of the new standard regarding safety integrity attributes. Furthermore, the connection of the automotive functional safety process with methods for qualification and quantification of safety and reliability issues will be explained in this paper. The Fault Tree Analysis will be used to exemplify one of these methods which are applied subsequent to the hazard analysis and risk assessment and which make a contribution to the validation and verification of the safety process.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of Moored and Passing Ships

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 6825
Author(s):  
Peter Vidmar ◽  
Marko Perkovič ◽  
Lucjan Gucma ◽  
Kinga Łazuga
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Good Practice ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Cruise Ships ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Port Area ◽  
Risk Management Process ◽  
The Impact

Accidents in port areas are generally relatively minor given the lower prevailing speeds, but dangerous cargo terminals located in the vicinity of populated areas present some risk of accidents with catastrophic consequences. The maritime risk assessment frameworks have been developed in many ports, but few include studies incorporating collisions between sailing and moored ships. This paper presents the risk assessment framework for such accidents. Moreover, it presents the important role of harbour regulations in the navigation risk management process within the port area. Today’s port regulations are created mostly based on the good practice of pilots and other experts, whereas quantitative methods are used less frequently. The intention of the presented case study was to demonstrate how quantitative risk assessment may be used in port policy development, which is why the method created is general and may be used in any terminal with dangerous cargo. The multi-stage method consists of several steps that make up a complex methodology, consisting of expert study, real-time simulation—a simulation of a collision in port is presented—and analytical-empirical calculations for consequence assessment. The case studies of the developed method are presented based on two real accidents, one in the Police port along the Świnoujście-Szczecin waterway, and the second in the Port of Koper in Slovenia. The results of this study present the parameters of the ship’s safe approach to the terminal area, such as velocity and approaching angle. These parameters are used to calculate the impact forces in the case of a collision between a moored and passing ship and its consequences on ship integrity as well as on mooring arrangement. Based on probability and consequences, the risk is evaluated and discussed in the sense of port safety. The presented method could be used as the framework for risk assessment of collisions in a port area, particularly when dealing with dangerous cargo or sensitive vessels such as cruise ships.

Safety Analysis for Complex Dynamic Systems

2013 ◽  
Vol 404 ◽  
pp. 719-725
Author(s):  
Milan Strbo ◽  
Pavol Tanuska ◽  
Lukas Smolarik ◽  
Igor Hagara ◽  
Augustin Gese
Keyword(s):  
Control System ◽  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Quantitative Methods ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Safety Analysis ◽  
Complex Dynamic ◽  
Safety Critical ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Methods ◽  
Complex Dynamic Systems

The content of this article is the proposal of process of the safety analysis for complex dynamic systems. The safety analysis is carried out in process of the proposal of control system for safety-critical processes. In preliminary hazard analysis is done the identifying all possible risks by PHI method. The PHA method is used to analyze these risks. The method of safety analysis depends on various safety-critical states of system which are system are controlled by models. We propose to use the method SQMD for modeling these states. This method combines qualitative and quantitative methods of modeling states and takes advantage of both methods. The model of the proposal is shown in the diagram. The article includes detailed description of the tasks for each step of analysis.

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