Analyzing the financial and economic momentum as a result of changes in the interest rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1656-1673
Author(s):  
V.V. Smirnov

Subject. The article discusses financial and economic momenta. Objectives. I determine financial and economic momenta as the interest rate changes in Russia. Methods. The study is based on a systems approach and the method of statistical analysis. Results. The Russian economy was found to strongly depend on prices for crude oil and natural gas, thus throwing Russia to the outskirts of the global capitalism, though keeping the status of an energy superpower, which ensures a sustainable growth in the global economy by increasing the external consumption and decreasing the domestic one. The devaluation of the national currency, a drop in tax revenue, etc. result from the decreased interest rate. They all require to increase M2 and the devalued retail loan in RUB, thus rising the GDP deflator. As for positive effects, the Central Bank operates sustainably, replenishes gold reserves and keeps the trade balance (positive balance), thus strengthening its resilience during a global drop in crude oil prices and the COVID-19 pandemic. The positive effects were discovered to result from a decreased in the interest rate, rather than keeping it low all the time. Conclusions and Relevance. As the interest rate may be, the financial and economic momentum in Russia depends on the volatility of the price for crude oil and natural gas. Lowering the interest rate and devaluing the national currency, the Central Bank preserves the resource structure of the Russian economy, strengthens its positions within the global capitalism and keeps its status of an energy superpower, thus reinforcing its resilience against a global drop in oil prices.

1986 ◽  
Vol 4 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 125-134
Author(s):  
Richard R. Dickinson

As the price of petroleum has increased, the power industry has displaced a great deal of more expensive petroleum and natural gas with coal and nuclear power. The petroleum industry has installed processing facilities to upgrade its heavy fuel oil to make lighter products. These two actions, when combined, have effectively resulted in producing clean products indirectly from coal. A profitable synfuels industry has been created by the refining and power industries without conscious direction on their part—and without government support. The net effect has been to substantially reduce demand for both crude oil and natural gas, stretching future supplies of petroleum energy. This displacement has contributed to the temporary bubble in natural gas and the present oversupply of crude oil, creating downward price pressures on both crude oil and products. Even so, fuel oil prices have remained relatively stable because the industry has installed sufficient capability through its refinery improvements to upgrade fuel oil into more clean products, thereby reducing production of heavy fuel oil. In the future, we can expect the interaction among these fuels to continue to exert their effects. Since there are many consumers who can use either natural gas or fuel oil, their prices will remain tied to each other. Fuel oil prices will set the upper limits to which the burner tip price of natural gas can rise. Conversely, natural gas prices will tend to set the floor under fuel oil prices.


2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.


2018 ◽  
Vol 36 (16) ◽  
pp. 1222-1228 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jasmina Perisic ◽  
Marina Milovanovic ◽  
Ivana Petrovic ◽  
Ljiljana Radovanovic ◽  
Marko Ristic ◽  
...  

2021 ◽  
pp. 129530
Author(s):  
Wally Contreras ◽  
Chris Hardy ◽  
Kaylene Tovar ◽  
Allison M. Piwetz ◽  
Chad R. Harris ◽  
...  

2018 ◽  
Vol 56 (4) ◽  
pp. 1587-1591
Author(s):  
Neil Wallace

In The Curse of Cash, Rogoff (2016) makes two arguments. (i) Large denominations of currency are primarily used for illegal activity. Therefore, eliminating them would have benefits that far outweigh the costs in terms of lost seigniorage. (ii) The zero lower bound (ZLB) on the interest rate implied by the possibility of holding large amounts of currency is a costly constraint on central-bank policy. The best way to eliminate the ZLB is to eliminate all but small denominations of currency, ten dollars and lower, and to have those be in the form of coins. The style of the book, no models and no symbols, works fairly well for (i), but not so well for (ii). For (ii), the author is unclear about a crucial matter: what fiscal policy accompanies alternative interest-rate settings chosen by the central bank? ( JEL E26, E42, E43, E52, E58, E62)


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