scholarly journals On the Weariness of Time: El Niño in the Philippines

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Jil Benitez
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Social Reform ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Natural Consequence ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Material World

As a rehearsal of a “tropical imaginary” that attempts to accentuate the entanglement of literature with the material world, this essay ‘coincides’ Jose F. Lacaba’s 1965 poem “Ang Kapaguran ng Panahon” (“The Weariness of Time”) with the 2015 El Niño phenomenon in the Philippines­ and its violent culmination the following year in Kidapawan City, Cotabato Province, Mindanao. While time or panahon in the Philippine tropics is usually intuited as generative, this essay outlines the possibility of its being worn down, not simply as a “natural” consequence of the present climate emergency, but as a critical outcome of the predominant political infrastructures that practically prohibit the phenomenon of time from unfolding. As such, it becomes imperative to recognize that beyond the current conditions banally imposed as “arog talaga kayan” or “how things really are” is the urgent need for social reform—daring tropical imaginings through which Philippine time can possibly become anew.

scholarly journals Monthly Variations of the Winter Precipitation over the Philippines During the Mature Phase of Eastern Pacific El Niño

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxu Liao ◽  
Yi Fan ◽  
Shoupeng Zhu ◽  
Yanyan Huang ◽  
Yang Lv
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Eastern Pacific ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Ep El Niño ◽  
Monthly Variations ◽  
Consecutive Dry Days

The influence of ENSO events on winter precipitation anomalies in the Philippines has been well known since decades, but whether this effect is different between months needs further exploration. In this study, the monthly variations of precipitation over the Philippines in winter during the mature phases of ENSO events are investigated with datasets of reanalysis and observations from 1979 to 2019. Results indicate that only the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño shows different influences on the Philippines winter precipitation among different months. In December during mature EP El Niño events, precipitation deficiency is not significant over the whole Philippines, whereas in January and February, precipitation decreases significantly over the southern Philippines as well as the areas to the southeast of the Philippines. Besides, the correlation between consecutive dry days over the southeast Philippines and ENSO is significantly positive in January and February but not in December. The eastward propagation of EP El Niño–related anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific (WNPAC) from December to February is proved responsible for the changed relationship between EP El Niño and precipitation. In December, the center of the WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Indo-China Peninsula, inducing weak lower-level wind anomalies and, consequently, weak vertical movement and water vapor transport anomalies over the Philippines, which exerts limited influence on the local precipitation. In January and February, by contrast, the center of WNPAC is located to the southeast of the Philippines, and therefore the southern Philippines is occupied by anticyclonic moisture transports and downward vertical motions, favoring less precipitations and larger than normal consecutive dry days over there.

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1718-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha G. Roberts ◽  
David Dawe ◽  
Walter P. Falcon ◽  
Rosamond L. Naylor
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Yield Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study uses regression analysis to evaluate the relationships among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño-3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), rainfall, and rice production, area harvested, and yield in Luzon, the large island on which most Philippine rice is grown. Previous research on Philippine rice production and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has found negative associations between El Niño events and rice yields in rainfed systems. This analysis goes further and shows that both irrigated and rainfed ecosystems are impacted. It also compares impacts on area harvested and yield. Variations in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTAs explain approximately 29% of the interannual variations in the deviations of total January–June (dry season) rice production from a polynomial trend for 1970–2005. In contrast, no impact was found on July–December production in either year t or t + 1. The impact of ENSO on dry-season rice production in Luzon appears to be primarily due to changes in area harvested rather than yield. Production declines for rainfed ecosystems are relatively larger than for irrigated ecosystems: a 1°C increase in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTA is associated with a 3.7% decrease in irrigated dry-season production but with a 13.7% decline in rainfed dry-season production.

scholarly journals Investigation of weather anomalies in the low-latitude islands of the Indian Ocean in 1991

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (7) ◽  
pp. 789-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Réchou ◽  
S. Kirkwood
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Volcanic Eruption ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Global Precipitation Climatology Project ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Mount Pinatubo ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract. Temperature, precipitation and sunshine duration measurements at meteorological stations across the southern Indian Ocean have been analysed to try to differentiate the possible influence of the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in the Philippines in June 1991 and the normal weather forcings. During December 1991, precipitation on the tropical islands Glorieuses (11.6° S) and Mayotte (12.8° S) was 4 and 3 times greater, respectively, than the climatological mean (precipitation is greater by more than than twice the standard deviation (SD)). Mean sunshine duration (expressed in sun hours per day) was only 6 h on Mayotte, although the sunshine duration is usually more than 7.5 ± 0.75 h, and on the Glorieuses it was only 5 h, although it is usually 8.5 ± 1 h. Mean and SD of sunshine duration are based on December (1964–2001 for Mayotte, 1966–1999 for the Glorieuses). The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is shown to correlate best with precipitation in this area. Variability controlling the warm zone on these two islands can be increased by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and/or solar activity (sunspot number, SSN). However, temperature records of these two islands show weak dependence on such forcings (temperatures are close to the climatological mean for December). This suggests that such weather forcings have an indirect effect on the precipitation. December 1991 was associated with unusually low values of the MJO index, which favours high rainfall, as well as with El Niño, eastern QBO and high SSN, which favour high variability. It is therefore not clear whether the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption had an effect. Since the precipitation anomalies at the Glorieuses and Mayotte are more or less local (Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data) and the effect of the Pinatubo volcanic cloud should be more widespread, it seems unlikely that Pinatubo was the cause. Islands at higher southern latitudes (south of Tromelin at 15.5° S) were not affected by the Pinatubo eruption in terms of sunshine duration, precipitation or temperature.

scholarly journals The Northeast Winter Monsoon over the Indian Subcontinent and Southeast Asia: Evolution, Interannual Variability, and Model Simulations

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 231-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agniv Sengupta ◽  
Sumant Nigam
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Winter Monsoon ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Peninsular India ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The northeast monsoon (NEM) brings the bulk of annual rainfall to southeastern peninsular India, Sri Lanka, and the neighboring Southeast Asian countries. This October–December monsoon is referred to as the winter monsoon in this region. In contrast, the southwest summer monsoon brings bountiful rainfall to the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The winter monsoon region is objectively demarcated from analysis of the timing of peak monthly rainfall. Because of the region’s complex terrain, in situ precipitation datasets are assessed using high-spatiotemporal-resolution Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall estimates, prior to their use in monsoon evolution, variability, and trend analyses. The Global Precipitation Climatology Center’s in situ analysis showed the least bias from TRMM. El Niño–Southern Oscillation’s (ENSO) impact on NEM rainfall is shown to be significant, leading to stronger NEM rainfall over southeastern peninsular India and Sri Lanka but diminished rainfall over Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines. The impact varies subseasonally, being weak in October and strong in November. The positive anomalies over peninsular India are generated by anomalous anticyclonic flow centered over the Bay of Bengal, which is forced by an El Niño–related reduction in deep convection over the Maritime Continent. The historical twentieth-century climate simulations informing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment (IPCC-AR5) show varied deficiencies in the NEM rainfall distribution and a markedly weaker (and often unrealistic) ENSO–NEM rainfall relationship.

scholarly journals Mechanisms Reducing ENSO Amplitude and Asymmetry via an Enhanced Seasonal Cycle in the Mid-Holocene

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8069-8085
Author(s):  
Tomoki Iwakiri ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Thermocline Feedback ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Extreme El Niño ◽  
El Nino Events

Abstract Paleo proxy records have suggested that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability during the mid-Holocene [8200 to 4200 years ago (8.2–4.2 ka)] was weaker than during the instrumental periods, but the mechanisms remain unclear. We examined processes of ENSO suppression using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM) that simulates ENSO amplitude and skewness under the present climate reasonably well. Two long simulations were performed: one using the preindustrial condition (CTRL) and the other using the 8-ka insolation having a greater seasonal cycle (MH8K). Consistent with proxy records and previous modeling studies, the ENSO amplitude weakened by 20% in MH8K compared to CTRL, mainly because of reduced thermocline feedback during the mature and decay phases. The weak thermocline feedback, likely a result of the loose equatorial thermocline in the mid-Holocene, suppresses the occurrence of extreme El Niño events and consequently explains the reduction in both ENSO amplitude and asymmetry. In MH8K, strengthened trade winds over the western-central Pacific Ocean act to cool the surface via evaporation while warmer water in the southern subtropical Pacific is transported beneath the equatorial thermocline, both contributing to diffuse the thermocline. Multimodel simulations for the mid-Holocene showed mean state changes and ENSO weakening similar to MH8K, but most models did not show reduced ENSO skewness, probably because of the failure in reproducing extreme El Niño events under the present climate.

scholarly journals Westerly Wind Bursts and Their Relationship with Intraseasonal Variations and ENSO. Part II: Energetics over the Western and Central Pacific

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (10) ◽  
pp. 3346-3361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayako Seiki ◽  
Yukari N. Takayabu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Westerly Wind ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Wind Bursts ◽  
Westerly Wind Bursts

Abstract The mechanism of synoptic-scale eddy development in the generation of westerly wind bursts (WWBs) over the western–central Pacific, and their relationship with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), were examined. In the WWB occurrences, barotropic structures of equatorial eddy westerlies with cyclonic disturbances were found from the surface to the upper troposphere. The dominant contributions to substantial eddy kinetic energy (EKE) were the barotropic energy conversion (KmKe) in the lower and middle tropospheres and the conversion from eddy available potential energy (PeKe) in the upper troposphere. Low-frequency environmental westerlies centered near the equator preceded strong zonal convergence and meridional shear, resulting in the substantial KmKe. The activation of synoptic convection also contributed to an increase in EKE through PeKe. These energies were redistributed to the lower-equatorial troposphere through energy flux convergence (GKe). These results showed that environmental fields contribute to the EKE increase near the equator and are important factors in WWB occurrences. Next, eddy growth was compared under different phases of MJO and ENSO. The MJO westerly phases of strong MJO events were classified into two groups, in terms of ENSO phases. Higher EKE values were found over the equatorial central Pacific in the WWB–ENSO correlated (pre–El Niño) periods. The energetics during these periods comported with those of the WWB generations. In the uncorrelated periods, the enhancement of eddy disturbances occurred far from the equator near the Philippines, where the activities of the easterly wave disturbances are well known. It is noteworthy that the enhanced region of the disturbances in the pre–El Niño periods coincided with the vicinity of large-scale MJO convection. It is suggested that coincidence corresponds with an enhancement of the internal disturbances embedded in the MJO, which is found only when the environmental conditions are favorable in association with ENSO.

scholarly journals Significant Influences of Global Mean Temperature and ENSO on Extreme Rainfall in Southeast Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (5) ◽  
pp. 1905-1919 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcelino Q. Villafuerte ◽  
Jun Matsumoto
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Location Parameter ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract This study investigates the changes in annual and seasonal maximum daily rainfall (RX1day) in Southeast Asia, obtained from gauge-based gridded precipitation data, to address the increasing concerns about climate change in the region. First, the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test was employed to detect significant trends in RX1day. Then, maximum likelihood modeling, which allows the incorporation of covariates in the location parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, was conducted to determine whether the rising global mean temperature, as well as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is influencing extreme rainfall over the region. The findings revealed that annual and seasonal RX1day is significantly increasing in Indochina and east-central Philippines while decreasing in most parts of the Maritime Continent during the past 57 yr (1951–2007). The trends in RX1day were further linked to the rising global mean temperature. It was shown that the location parameter of the GEV—and hence the RX1day on average—has significantly covaried with the annually averaged near-surface global mean temperature anomaly. Such covariation is pronouncedly observed over the regions where significant trends in RX1day were detected. Furthermore, the results demonstrated that, as ENSO develops in July–September, negative covariations between the location parameter of the GEV and the ENSO index, implying a higher (lower) likelihood of extreme rainfall during La Niña (El Niño), were observed over the Maritime Continent. Such conditions progress northward to the regions of Indochina and the Philippines as ENSO approaches its maturity in October–December and then retreat southward as the ENSO weakens in the ensuing seasons.

scholarly journals ENSO Contribution to Aerosol Variations over the Maritime Continent and the Western North Pacific during 2000–10

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (17) ◽  
pp. 6541-6560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Zhiping Wen ◽  
Zhuoqi He
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Delayed Response ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Aerosol Cloud ◽  
Precipitation Variation

Abstract This study investigates interannual aerosol variations over the Maritime Continent and the western North Pacific Ocean and aerosol–cloud–precipitation relationship during the period 2000–10 based on monthly-mean anomalies. The local aerosol–cloud–precipitation relationship displays strong regional characteristics. The aerosol variation is negatively correlated with cloud and precipitation variation over the Maritime Continent, but is positively correlated with cloud and precipitation variation over the region southeast of Japan. Over broad subtropical oceanic regions, the aerosol variation is positively correlated with cloud variation, but has a weak correlation with precipitation variation. Aerosol variations over the Maritime Continent and over the region southeast of Japan display a biennial feature with an obvious phase lag of about 8 months in the latter region during 2001–07. This biennial feature is attributed to the impacts of El Niño events on aerosol variations in these regions through large-scale circulation and precipitation changes. Around October of El Niño–developing years, the suppressed precipitation over the Maritime Continent favors an aerosol increase by reducing the wet deposition and setting up dry conditions favorable for fire burning. During early summer of El Niño–decaying years, suppressed heating around the Philippines as a delayed response to El Niño warming induces an anomalous lower-level cyclone over the region to the southeast of Japan through an atmospheric teleconnection, leading to an accumulation of aerosol and increase of precipitation. The aerosol–precipitation relationship shows an obvious change with time over eastern China, leading to an overall weak correlation.

scholarly journals Different El Niño Types and Tropical Cyclone Landfall in East Asia

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (19) ◽  
pp. 6510-6523 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Zhang ◽  
H.-F. Graf ◽  
Yee Leung ◽  
Michael Herzog
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Malay Peninsula ◽  
Cp El Niño ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Ep El Niño

Abstract This study examines whether there exist significant differences in tropical cyclone (TC) landfall between central Pacific (CP) El Niño, eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, and La Niña during the peak TC season (June–October) and how and to what extent CP El Niño influences TC landfall over East Asia for the period 1961–2009. The peak TC season is subdivided into summer [June–August (JJA)] and autumn [September–October (SO)]. The results are summarized as follows: (i) during the summer of CP El Niño years, TCs are more likely to make landfall over East Asia because of a strong easterly steering flow anomaly induced by the westward shift of the subtropical high and northward-shifted TC genesis. In particular, TCs have a greater probability of making landfall over Japan and Korea during the summer of CP El Niño years. (ii) In the autumn of CP El Niño years, TC landfall in most areas of East Asia, especially Indochina, the Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines, is likely to be suppressed because the large-scale circulation resembles that of EP El Niño years. (iii) During the whole peak TC season [June–October (JJASO)] of CP El Niño years, TCs are more likely to make landfall over Japan and Korea. TC landfall in East Asia as a whole has an insignificant association with CP El Niño during the peak TC season. In addition, more (less) TCs are likely to make landfall in China, Indochina, the Malay Peninsula, and the Philippines during the peak TC season of La Niña (EP El Niño) years.

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