scholarly journals MODELING AND FORECASTING DEMAND FOR A DIGITAL PRODUCT

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (22(50)) ◽  
pp. 95-101
Author(s):  
Oleksandr Novoseletskyy ◽  
Ihor Zubenko ◽  
Mariya Gurina
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Information Value ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Seasonal Factor ◽  
Short Term Forecasting ◽  
Student’S T

Different approaches to modeling and forecasting the demand for a digital product, namely the paid activities of Facebook, are explored in the article. The company is given to reject its arrivals in the main form of advertisements. The available range of data on the company's activities allowed to build forecast models based on adaptive short-term forecasting methods, namely the Brown method and the adaptive multiplicative Holt-Winters model taking into account the quarterly seasonal factor. These models have the ability to continuously take into account the evolution of the dynamic characteristics of the studied processes, to adapt to these dynamics, giving weight and high information value to the available observations, if they are close to the current time. The models were tested for adequacy using a number of criteria, including the RS-test, the series criterion based on the median of the sample, the Student's t-test and the Darbin-Watson test. The comparative analysis of the obtained results by models allowed to choose a model that gives a fairly accurate result. The analysis also showed that there is a quarterly seasonality and, accordingly, a significant decline at the beginning of the year and income growth in recent quarters. The forecast for the 4th quarter of the next period is built. The forecast is compared with real data and the prospects for the development of digital products in Ukraine are determined, in particular, the spread of the use of digital services and products in many areas.

scholarly journals Modeling and Forecasting of COVID-19 Spreading by Delayed Stochastic Differential Equations

Axioms ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 18
Author(s):  
Marouane Mahrouf ◽  
Adnane Boukhouima ◽  
Houssine Zine ◽  
El Mehdi Lotfi ◽  
Delfim F. M. Torres ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Data ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
The Novel ◽  
First Case ◽  
Epidemiological Trend ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Stochastic Time

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia has posed a great threat to the world recent months by causing many deaths and enormous economic damage worldwide. The first case of COVID-19 in Morocco was reported on 2 March 2020, and the number of reported cases has increased day by day. In this work, we extend the well-known SIR compartmental model to deterministic and stochastic time-delayed models in order to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Morocco and to assess the potential role of multiple preventive measures and strategies imposed by Moroccan authorities. The main features of the work include the well-posedness of the models and conditions under which the COVID-19 may become extinct or persist in the population. Parameter values have been estimated from real data and numerical simulations are presented for forecasting the COVID-19 spreading as well as verification of theoretical results.

scholarly journals Applying Heath-Jarrow-Morton Model to Forecasting the US Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rates

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 114
Author(s):  
Valerii Maltsev ◽  
Michael Pokojovy
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Stochastic Evolution ◽  
Infinite Dimensions ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Hjm Model ◽  
Concise Review ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting

The Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model is a powerful instrument for describing the stochastic evolution of interest rate curves under no-arbitrage assumption. An important feature of the HJM approach is the fact that the drifts can be expressed as functions of respective volatilities and the underlying correlation structure. Aimed at researchers and practitioners, the purpose of this article is to present a self-contained, but concise review of the abstract HJM framework founded upon the theory of interest and stochastic partial differential equations in infinite dimensions. To illustrate the predictive power of this theory, we apply it to modeling and forecasting the US Treasury daily yield curve rates. We fit a non-parametric model to real data available from the US Department of the Treasury and illustrate its statistical performance in forecasting future yield curve rates.

scholarly journals Processes of digitalization in the context of philosophical-technical interpretation

2020 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
A. Yu. Kosenkov
Keyword(s):  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Qualitative Change ◽  
Structural Elements ◽  
Information Communication ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
Production Economic

Based on the analysis of transformations of the technical reality of the last century related to the development of computers and digital technologies, the article discusses the processes of digitalization and digital transformations. It has been established that digitalization can be understood as the process of creating, through digital technologies, a specific real or virtual digital product with information, communication, production, economic and other purposes. It is noted that the digitalization process leads to digital transformations – processes of a qualitative change in the structural elements of reality associated with the development and use of digital technologies and digital products. The study also establishes that digitalization processes, due to the advent of computer devices and digital technologies, are transforming technical reality.

scholarly journals Launching Timing for Digital Products with Consumers’ Variable Needs

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Wei Li ◽  
Jia Liang
Keyword(s):  
New Product ◽  
Maturity Stage ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Total Replacement ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
Consumer Valuation ◽  
Product Generation ◽  
Transition Strategies ◽  
Phase Out

The value of a digital product diminishes because of the changing needs of consumers over time. To maintain the value of products, digital product firms sequentially launch upgraded versions of existing products. Therefore, a critical challenge faced by these firms is to determine the timing of launching upgrades. In this study, we develop an analytical model that incorporates needs variation and a product diffusion process in a sequential launching context. The comprehensive model considers two types of transition strategies (i.e., older generations are gradually phased out or totally replaced). We investigate the optimal launching timing of new product generation by conducting several computational experiments. Under total replacement, an astute manager will launch the upgrade when the existing version has reached the maturity stage. However, phase-out transition, the new upgrade, will be launched now or never according to the rate of needs variation. This study bridges the gap between the knowledge on the launching timing of digital products and the volatility of consumer valuation.

scholarly journals Research on the Influence of the Change of Consumption Concept on the Development of Digital Products in the Post Epidemic Era

2020 ◽  
Vol 179 ◽  
pp. 02072
Author(s):  
Deng Jieru ◽  
Xiao Canjun ◽  
Zhou Mengzhou ◽  
Zhou Xiying
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Consumption Patterns ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
Key Points ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Development Trend ◽  
Life Work

The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has caused a huge impact on the global economy. Great changes have taken place in people’s consumption patterns. In order to explore the changes of people’s consumption concept in the post epidemic era, and the impact of these changes on digital products, this paper analyzes the changes of consumption concept from different life scenes such as life, work, learning, entertainment. Then, the article summarizes the development trend of digital products in the post epidemic era. Finally, the key points of future digital product design are put forward.

VARIATIONAL BAYES AND LOCALIZED FEATURE SELECTION FOR STUDENT'S t-MIXTURE MODELS

2013 ◽  
Vol 27 (06) ◽  
pp. 1350016 ◽  
Author(s):  
HUI ZHANG ◽  
Q. M. JONATHAN WU ◽  
THANH MINH NGUYEN
Keyword(s):  
Feature Selection ◽  
Mixture Models ◽  
Mixture Model ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Feature Saliency ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Selection For ◽  
Student’S T ◽  
T Distribution ◽  
Novel Algorithm

In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for feature selection and model detection using Student's t-distribution based on the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. First, our method is based on the Student's t-mixture model (SMM) which has heavier tail than the Gaussian distribution and is therefore less sensitive to small numbers of data points and consequent precision-estimates of the components number. Second, the number of components, the local feature saliency and the parameters of the mixture model are simultaneously estimated by Bayesian variational learning. Experimental results using synthetic and real data demonstrate the improved robustness of our approach.

scholarly journals Digital products with $ PN_k $-adjacencies and the almost fixed point property in $ DTC_k^\blacktriangle $

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 11550-11567
Author(s):  
Jeong Min Kang ◽  
◽  
Sang-Eon Han ◽  
Sik Lee ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Point ◽  
Digital Images ◽  
Fixed Point Property ◽  
The Other ◽  
Point Property ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Adjacency Relation ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
New Concepts ◽  
Continuous Maps

<abstract><p>Given two digital images $ (X_i, k_i), i \in \{1, 2\} $, first of all we establish a new $ PN_k $-adjacency relation in a digital product $ X_1 \times X_2 $ to obtain a relation set $ (X_1 \times X_2, PN_k) $, where the term $ ''$$ PN $" means $ ''$pseudo-normal". Indeed, a $ PN $-$ k $-adjacency is softer or broader than a normal $ k $-adjacency. Next, the present paper initially develops both the notion of $ PN $-$ k $-continuity and a $ PN $-$ k $-isomorphism. Furthermore, it proves that these new concepts, the $ PN $-$ k $-continuity and a $ PN $-$ k $-isomorphism, need not be equal to the typical $ k $-continuity and a $ k $-isomorphism, respectively. Precisely, we prove that none of the typical $ k $-continuity (<italic>resp.</italic> typical $ k $-isomorphism) and the $ PN $-$ k $-continuity (<italic>resp.</italic> $ PN $-$ k $-isomorphism) implies the other. Then we prove that for each $ i \in \{1, 2\} $, the typical projection map $ P_i: X_1 \times X_2 \to X_i $ preserves a $ PN_k $-adjacency relation in $ X_1 \times X_2 $ to the $ k_i $-adjacency relation in $ (X_i, k_i) $. In particular, using a $ PN $-$ k $-isomorphism, we can classify digital products with $ PN_k $-adjacencies. Furthermore, in the category of digital products with $ PN_k $-adjacencies and $ PN $-$ k $-continuous maps between two digital products with $ PN_k $-adjacencies, denoted by $ DTC_k^\blacktriangle $, we finally study the (almost) fixed point property of $ (X_1 \times X_2, PN_k) $.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Gamblified digital product offerings: an experimental study of loot box menu designs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Adam ◽  
Konstantin Roethke ◽  
Alexander Benlian
Keyword(s):  
Business Models ◽  
Behavioral Control ◽  
Purchase Behavior ◽  
Digital Products ◽  
Digital Platforms ◽  
Design Elements ◽  
Digital Product ◽  
Scratch Cards ◽  
Loss Experience ◽  
Purchase Behaviors

AbstractTo augment traditional monetization strategies, digital platform providers increasingly draw on gamblification (i.e., the use of gambling design elements). By means of gambling design elements (e.g., lottery tickets, scratch cards, loot boxes), platform providers do not only entertain users but also incentivize them to purchase digital products. Yet, despite the increasing prevalence of gamblified digital platforms, little is known about how gamblification influences user purchase behaviors. Drawing on prospect theory, we investigate gamblification in the form of loot box menu designs and the associated effects of uncertainty, loss experience and behavioral control on user purchase behavior. Specifically, we conducted a contest-based online experiment with 159 participants, finding that platform providers can profit from offering loot boxes with certain (vs. uncertain) rewards in loot box menus. Furthermore, this effect intensifies when participants previously experienced a loss and decreases when they perceive to have more control over the result. Thus, our findings provide theoretical and practical insights for a better understanding of gamblification in general and of loot box menu designs for enhancing digital business models in particular.

Hybrid method of intellectual diagnosis and forecasting of complex technical systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (jai2021.26(2)) ◽  
pp. 78-87
Author(s):  
Vorobiov A ◽  
◽  
Zakusylo P ◽  
Kozachuk V ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Method ◽  
Technical Condition ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Diagnostic Systems ◽  
Current Time ◽  
Real Model ◽  
Internal Parameters ◽  
Failure State ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Modern control and diagnostic systems (CDS) usually determine only the technical condition (TC) at the current time, ie the CDS answers the question: a complex technical system (CTS) should be considered operational or not, and may provide little information on performance CTS even in the near future. Therefore, the existing scenarios of CDS operation do not provide for the assessment of the possibility of gradual failures, ie there is no forecasting of the technical condition. The processes of parameter degradation and degradation prediction are stochastic processes, the “behavior” of which is influenced by a combination of external and internal factors, so the deg-radation process can be described as a function that depends on changes in the internal parameters of CTS. The hybrid method involves the following steps. The first is to determine the set of initial characteristics that characterize the CTS vehicle. The second is the establishment of precautionary tolerances of degradation values of the characteristics that characterize the pre-failure technical con-dition of the CTS. The third is to determine the rational composition of informative indicators, which maximally determine the "behavior" of the initial characteristics. The fourth — implementa-tion of multiparameter monitoring, fixation of values of the controlled characteristics, formation of an information array of values of characteristics. Fifth — the adoption of a general model of the process of changing the characteristics of the CTS. Sixth — the formation of a real model of the process of changing the characteristics of Y(t) on the basis of an information array of values of char-acteristics obtained by multi-parameter monitoring. Seventh — forecasting the time of possible oc-currence of the pre-failure state of the CTS, which is carried out by extrapolating the obtained real model of the process of changing the characteristics of Y(t). It is proposed to use two types of mod-els: for medium- and long-term forecasting - polynomial models, for short-term forecasting — a lin-ear extrapolation model. At the final stage, forecast errors are determined for all types of models of degradation of pa-rameters and characteristics. Based on the results of the forecast verification, the models are adjust-ed

Tourist destination development: Modeling and forecasting

Servis plus ◽  
10.12737/5535 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Михаил Морозов ◽  
Mikhail Morozov ◽  
Наталья Морозова ◽  
Natalya Morozova
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Efficiency Ratio ◽  
Integral Index ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Forecast Models

This article deals with the creation and development of the tourist destinations. The authors describe different types of development-related destination appeal, propose a logically interconnected sequence of stages in the formation of the desired profile of a tourist destination, and show that, in order to ensure effective functioning, it is imperative that economic and mathematical modeling to assess the potential of the current and achievable competitiveness of tourist destinations be used. The proposed model allows to calculate the quantitative effect of attracting investment to the development of tourist destinations. The defining characteristics are the coefficient of efficiency of economic activity of a tourist destination, and the efficiency ratio of a tourist destination. The authors introduce a new measure — the coefficient of tourist loyalty to a destination (coefficient of return tourist business) and propose a formula for calculating the integral index of the efficiency (competitiveness) of a tourist destination. In the article, the authors consider the basic principles of forecasting, which are to be taken into account in the course of the development-forecast model construction; provide a description of forecast models, and identify the properties required of an efficient forecasting model.

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