Tourist destination development: Modeling and forecasting

Servis plus ◽  
10.12737/5535 ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 32-39
Author(s):  
Михаил Морозов ◽  
Mikhail Morozov ◽  
Наталья Морозова ◽  
Natalya Morozova
Keyword(s):  
Forecast Model ◽  
Efficiency Ratio ◽  
Integral Index ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Forecast Models

This article deals with the creation and development of the tourist destinations. The authors describe different types of development-related destination appeal, propose a logically interconnected sequence of stages in the formation of the desired profile of a tourist destination, and show that, in order to ensure effective functioning, it is imperative that economic and mathematical modeling to assess the potential of the current and achievable competitiveness of tourist destinations be used. The proposed model allows to calculate the quantitative effect of attracting investment to the development of tourist destinations. The defining characteristics are the coefficient of efficiency of economic activity of a tourist destination, and the efficiency ratio of a tourist destination. The authors introduce a new measure — the coefficient of tourist loyalty to a destination (coefficient of return tourist business) and propose a formula for calculating the integral index of the efficiency (competitiveness) of a tourist destination. In the article, the authors consider the basic principles of forecasting, which are to be taken into account in the course of the development-forecast model construction; provide a description of forecast models, and identify the properties required of an efficient forecasting model.

scholarly journals Evolution of Tourism in Natural Destinations and Dynamic Sustainable Thresholds over Time

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (12) ◽  
pp. 4788 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hördur Haraldsson ◽  
Rannveig Ólafsdóttir
Keyword(s):  
Feedback Loop ◽  
Optimum Level ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Crowding Effect ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Causal Loop ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

Tourism is a complex industry involving numerous types of activities that can have adverse environmental impacts and, over time, gradually change the way tourists experience tourist destinations and their choice of particular tourist destinations. The overall aim of this study is to examine the impact of tourism destination exploitation upon the perceived attractiveness of a particular destination to different types of visitors using the Purism Scale coupled to the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC). The study uses the system dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) approach, to analyse feedback loop behaviour and causal loop impacts over time. The results show that the different visitors’ types, as defined by the Purist Scale, affect the attractiveness of the tourist destination in different ways over time. The results further show that different visitors’ types cannot exist at their own optimum level at the same time in a destination. The concept tourism carrying capacity should thus be defined through the maximum site attractiveness,-based upon the optimum size of infrastructure that ensures low visual effect, low crowding effect, and low environmental impact. This enables better understanding of the different evolution phases of the tourist site during its push for infrastructure development.

The implementation of sustainable development principles in order to optimize the system of competitiveness of tourist destinations

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-100
Author(s):  
Татьяна Рассохина ◽  
Tatyana Rassokhina ◽  
Константин Лебедев ◽  
Konstantin Lebedev
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Classical Model ◽  
Graphical Analysis ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Opposite Case ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Destination Competitiveness

The article is devoted to the development of a model of tourist destination competitiveness based on the principles of sustainable development. It is shown that insufficient attention to solving economic, social and environmental problems through mechanisms of global concept of sustainable development is one of the main factors constraining the growth of competitiveness. The authors prove the following. When creating tourist destinations of different scales, environment for the local community is formed, which should be comfortable and for tourists. In the opposite case, tourist destinations will experience a crisis in its development. The authorial model of ensuring the tourist destination competitiveness, developed on the basis of classical model of M. Porter and G. Dunning. The role of the local community as one of the factors of competitiveness is proved. The analysis of the sustainable development criteria according to UNWTO regarding the creation of conditions for the local community development is conducted, the basic conditions are identified. The authors have conducted an expert survey in destinations of Kaluga region and Tatarstan. On its base the graphical analysis of realization sustainable development criteria concerning creation of conditions for local community activation as the competitive strength of the tourist destination is represented. The main typical problems are identified. Based on it three types of competiveness strategies in the context of sustainable development are specified. The authors have conducted the analysis of indicators of social and tourism development of the Russian regions and have distinguished 10 regions most in need of the implementation of the proposed model. This article provides recommendations for increasing of competitive advantage and sustainable development of tourist destinations.

scholarly journals The influence of cultural and historical heritage on the attractiveness of a tourist destination

Bastina ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. 247-260
Author(s):  
Dejan Dašić ◽  
Marko Savić
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Heritage ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Ski Resorts ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Historical Heritage

The subject of this paper is the influence of cultural heritage on the attractiveness of a tourist destination. Countries, as bearers of the brand, have become aware that it is no longer enough to invest only in the development of individual tourist destinations, such as those related to maritime tourism, metropolises, ski resorts or spas. T o modern tourists, the whole country must be presented as a tourist destination, and cultural-historical tourism is imposed as the best option. This was influenced by the fact that with the development of society, there have been major changes in the habits, desires, but also the needs of tourists, who today want different types of vacation. The aim of this paper is to present the marketing potentials of the cultural and historical heritage of Serbia.

scholarly journals Design as an Indicator of Tourist Destination Change: The Concept Renewal Cycle at Watkins Glen State Park

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 367
Author(s):  
Hans Klein-Hewett
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
New York State ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Cyclical Pattern ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Life Cycle Models ◽  
Renewal Cycle

For decades, the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) model, its iterations, and its critics have shaped the conversation about change and adaptation at tourist destinations. However, few life cycle models consider the designed landscape as a factor in the evolutionary process or as a signifier of change. This oversight is problematic because the landscape, the aggregation of consciously designed spaces and amenities, is where tourism takes place. It is the physical manifestation of the tourist destination and therefore significantly influences how the site is organized, consumed, and evaluated. To illustrate the landscape’s importance, this article proposes a new life cycle model called the Concept Renewal Cycle (CRC), which tracks the intent of the designed landscape, the concept, to understand and document destination change. The model introduces and utilizes relevancy as the variable that determines concept success and instigates action. The proposed model and other prominent life cycle models are analyzed and compared through the case study of Watkins Glen State Park in New York state. While the other models struggle to reflect the evolution at Watkins Glen, the CRC shows resilience by eschewing TALC’s inevitable, time-based decline structure in favor of a cyclical pattern where concept revision allows for prolonged maturity.

Digital Marketing Best Practices for Management in Tourist Destinations

2021 ◽  
pp. 182-198
Author(s):  
Cristina Callejón-Gómez ◽  
María-Mercedes Rojas-de-Gracia
Keyword(s):  
Social Networks ◽  
Best Practices ◽  
Digital Marketing ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Web Metrics

This work fills a gap that has existed up to now, proposing a series of specific indicators that serve as a manual of good digital marketing practices for the promotion of tourist destinations. According to the proposed model, the variables to take into account are those related to web metrics, SEO positioning, and social networks. Likewise, the indicators and metrics proposed in the tourist destination Malaga (Spain) are applied. In this way, the model can serve as a guide for the managing institutions of tourist destinations that wish to measure the results of their efforts. This analysis facilitates the identification of the strengths of the strategy followed, as well as those that need to be improved. It can also be used to verify the positioning of tourist destinations with respect to their competitors.

Support Activity Flow Based Forecast Model for the Quantity of the Aircraft’s Support Equipments during Design and Development Phase

2010 ◽  
Vol 118-120 ◽  
pp. 722-727
Author(s):  
Jia Wen ◽  
Rui Kang ◽  
Zhi Yu Jia ◽  
Nai Chao Wang
Keyword(s):  
Working Hours ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Practical Case ◽  
Development Phase ◽  
Design And Development ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Maximum Quantity ◽  
Flow Diagrams ◽  
Support Activity

In order to resolve the problems encountered in the process of forecasting the quantity of equipments demanded by aircraft’s support system during the design and development phase, including the difficulty to collect the input data of the existing forecast models and their imprecise and unauthentic output results, a model of was established to forecast the number of support equipments based on support activity flow described by functional flow diagrams. Firstly, the aircraft’s typical mission was analyzed and the quantity of operation and maintenance support activities happened in the duration of the mission was calculated on the basis of the typical mission’s data and aircraft’s reliability data. Secondly, the working hours and maximum number of the support equipments demanded by the support activities in the bottom of the functional flow diagrams was calculated and analyzed. Thirdly, an approach to sum the working hours and maximum quantity of the support equipments demanded by the support activities with logic relations in the same level of the functional flow diagrams was presented and with which the working hours and maximum number of support equipments demanded by the top-level support activity was achieved. Fourthly, the quantity of support equipments to be allocated in the support sites was calculated. At last, the proposed model was demonstrated via a practical case of aircraft, which proved that the model is corrective and effective.

scholarly journals Application of Blockchain in Education: GDPR-Compliant and Scalable Certification and Verification of Academic Information

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 4537
Author(s):  
Christian Delgado-von-Eitzen ◽  
Luis Anido-Rifón ◽  
Manuel J. Fernández-Iglesias
Keyword(s):  
Data Protection ◽  
Personal Data ◽  
General Data Protection Regulation ◽  
Certification System ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Different Types ◽  
International Regulations ◽  
Innovative Solution ◽  
General Data ◽  
Academic Information

Blockchain technologies are awakening in recent years the interest of different actors in various sectors and, among them, the education field, which is studying the application of these technologies to improve information traceability, accountability, and integrity, while guaranteeing its privacy, transparency, robustness, trustworthiness, and authenticity. Different interesting proposals and projects were launched and are currently being developed. Nevertheless, there are still issues not adequately addressed, such as scalability, privacy, and compliance with international regulations such as the General Data Protection Regulation in Europe. This paper analyzes the application of blockchain technologies and related challenges to issue and verify educational data and proposes an innovative solution to tackle them. The proposed model supports the issuance, storage, and verification of different types of academic information, both formal and informal, and complies with applicable regulations, protecting the privacy of users’ personal data. This proposal also addresses the scalability challenges and paves the way for a global academic certification system.

scholarly journals Stationary Traffic as a Factor of Tourist Destination Quality and Sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 3965
Author(s):  
Robert Maršanic ◽  
Edna Mrnjavac ◽  
Drago Pupavac ◽  
Ljudevit Krpan
Keyword(s):  
Synthesis Method ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Tourist Destination ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Method Analysis

Since the Republic of Croatia is one of the most popular European and world tourist destinations, the aim of this paper is, from the user’s (n = 596) point of view, to research the importance of stationary traffic in tourist destinations. The purpose of this paper is to point out the possibilities of improving the tourist destination quality and sustainability through an adequate parking service. In order to corroborate constructed scientific hypotheses, a larger number of scientific methods were used from which a polling method, analysis and synthesis method, descriptive statistics method, t-test, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) should be singled out. The major finding of this paper indicates a relatively big importance of stationary traffic (M = 6.51; SD = 2.21) as an element of tourist destination quality. Moreover, regarding the quality of tourist destination, the results of this paper suggest that the parking space availability is more important than the way parking or parking payment are organized. Between the experienced parking problem in a tourist destination and age on one side and evaluation of the importance of stationary traffic as an element of tourist destination quality on the other side, a statistically important connection was established. Gained knowledge can be particularly helpful to hotel industry managers but also to traffic managers whose duty is to provide an adequate number of parking spaces in tourist destinations.

scholarly journals ID Learning Unit: Understanding and Interpreting Testing for Clostridium difficile

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel A. Solomon ◽  
Danny A. Milner
Keyword(s):  
Clinical Practice ◽  
Clostridium Difficile ◽  
Basic Principles ◽  
Multiple Tests ◽  
Molecular Tests ◽  
Different Types

Abstract Understanding and interpreting the molecular tests for Clostridium difficile is challenging because there are several different types of assays and most laboratories combine multiple tests in order to assess for presence of disease. This learning unit demonstrates the basic principles of each test along with its strengths and weaknesses, and illustrates how the tests are used in clinical practice.

New Key Factors Discovery to Enhance Dengue Fever Forecasting Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 931-932 ◽  
pp. 1457-1461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phatsavee Ongruk ◽  
Padet Siriyasatien ◽  
Kraisak Kesorn
Keyword(s):  
Wind Speed ◽  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Dengue Virus Infection ◽  
Conventional Model ◽  
Forecasting Error ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Basic Set ◽  
Almost All

There are several factors that can be used to predict a dengue fever outbreak. Almost all existing research approaches, however, usually exploit the use of a basic set of core attributes to forecast an outbreak, e.g. temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall. In contrast, this research identifies new attributes to improve the prediction accuracy of the outbreak. The experimental results are analyzed using a correlation analysis and demonstrate that the density of dengue virus infection rate in female mosquitoes and seasons have strong correlation with a dengue fever outbreak. In addition, the research constructs a forecast model using Poisson regression analysis. The result shows the proposed model obtains significantly low forecasting error rate when compared it against the conventional model using only temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall parameters.

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