scholarly journals What rates of productivity growth would be required to offset the effects of population aging? A study of twenty industrialized countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank T. Denton ◽  
Byron Spencer
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Population Aging ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Aging Effects ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

A shift in population distribution toward older ages is underway in industrialized countries throughout the world, and will continue well into the future. We provide a framework for isolating the pure effects of population aging on per capita GDP, employ the framework in calculations for twenty OECD countries, and derive the rates of productivity growth required to offset those effects. Taking the twenty countries as a whole, the average productivity growth rate (a simple unweighted arithmetic average) required to just offset aging effects over the full 30 years from 2015 to 2045 would be 4.2 per cent per decade, or approximately 0.4 per cent per year; to achieve an overall increase of 1 per cent in GDP per capita would require an average rate of 15.1 per cent per decade, or 1.4 per cent per year. We consider also some labour-related changes that might provide offsets, for comparison with productivity.

scholarly journals Understanding China's Growth: Past, Present, and Future

2012 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 103-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaodong Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Economic Incentives ◽  
Economic Transformation ◽  
Living Standard ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The U.S

The pace and scale of China's economic transformation have no historical precedent. In 1978, China was one of the poorest countries in the world. The real per capita GDP in China was only one-fortieth of the U.S. level and one-tenth the Brazilian level. Since then, China's real per capita GDP has grown at an average rate exceeding 8 percent per year. As a result, China's real per capita GDP is now almost one-fifth the U.S. level and at the same level as Brazil. This rapid and sustained improvement in average living standard has occurred in a country with more than 20 percent of the world's population so that China is now the second-largest economy in the world. I will begin by discussing briefly China's historical growth performance from 1800 to 1950. I then present growth accounting results for the period from 1952 to 1978 and the period since 1978, decomposing the sources of growth into capital deepening, labor deepening, and productivity growth. But the main focus of this paper will be to examine the sources of growth since 1978, the year when China started economic reform. Perhaps surprisingly, given China's well-documented sky-high rates of saving and investment, I will argue that China's rapid growth over the last three decades has been driven by productivity growth rather than by capital investment. I also examine the contributions of sector-level productivity growth, and of resource reallocation across sectors and across firms within a sector, to aggregate productivity growth. Overall, gradual and persistent institutional change and policy reforms that have reduced distortions and improved economic incentives are the main reasons for the productivity growth.

Kondratiev Cycles in Norwegian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 21-26
Author(s):  
Коржов ◽  
Vladimir Korzhov
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Industrial Economy ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Post Industrial

The article presents the results of studies of the formation and development of the Kondratiev cycles in the Norwegian economy, which is one of the most industrialized countries of the continent. At the beginning of the XXI century Norway one of the three largest oil exporters in the world, along with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The research operates The data on real per capita GDP during 1830–2008. Economic-mathematical modeling revealed the stages of Kondratiev cycles’ formation in the economy of Norway. The data showed that Kondratievcycles can be observed in Norwegian economy during the formation and development of post-industrial economy.

Determinants of Terrorism in South Asia

2020 ◽  
pp. 1598-1617
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Sovik Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Education Expenditure ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Panel Models ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Dynamic Panel Models ◽  
Socio Economic Factors

Terrorist activities in the post-Paris Peace Treaties have emerged as one of the most perilous agendas that are troubling the world economies and political figures in securing their nations and regions. Several socio-economic factors were evidenced to be the crucial factors in determining terrorist activities all around the world. The present article strives to identify the significance of several socio economic factors, namely, refugee population, access to good sanitation facilities, youth unemployment rate, percentage of education expenditure to GDP, percentage of military expenditure to GDP, per capita GDP and political stability in the panel of seven South Asian countries and China for the period 2002-2016. By applying both static and dynamic panel models, the article observes that all of the selected variables explain the terrorism index with expected signs. The article thus prescribes that the governments of the selected countries should concentrate on allocating their budgets on the improvements of sectors underlying the associated indicators.

scholarly journals Rain, Riches, and Empire: The Relationship between Nations Ruling Distant Lands, Nations of Great Wealth, and Regions of Regular Moderate Atmospheric Precipitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 455-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Bruce Railsback
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
Small Proportion ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Eastern North America ◽  
Human History ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Human Construction ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Two of the great questions of human history and economics are why some nations held far-flung empires and why some presently enjoy great wealth. One factor that should be included in the inevitably multifactorial answer to these questions is regular moderate precipitation (precipitation with an average rate between 30 and 120 mm for each month). Only a small proportion of Earth’s surface has regular moderate precipitation, and most of that area is in Europe and eastern North America. Strikingly, of the 13 nations that held geographically discontinuous multicontinental transoceanic empires, 12 overlap with regions of regular moderate precipitation. Similarly, of the 20 nations with the greatest per capita GDP in 2015, 16 coincide with regions of regular moderate precipitation. These relationships are presumably rooted in the greater success, or lesser inhibition, of human construction of infrastructure, husbandry of livestock, and cultivation of crops, some combination of which likely allowed industrialization, projection of geopolitical power, and accumulation of wealth. One instructive example is that of China, which has a climate superficially like that of Europe and eastern North America but no regions of regular moderate rainfall, and which neither developed an overseas empire nor is among the world’s nations with greatest per capita GDP. Furthermore, concentration of nations holding empires and wealth in the Northern Hemisphere and their absence from the south can be linked to the coincidence that the Southern Hemisphere’s latitudinal zone of regular moderate rainfall is over the Southern Ocean, where there is little land on which human societies could have enjoyed the benefits of that supportive climate.

Brazil’s Northeast

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre Rands Barros
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Educational Policy ◽  
Productivity Growth ◽  
Social Groups ◽  
National Average ◽  
Agricultural Export ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Poor Region ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Brazilian Northeast

The Brazilian Northeast is a large poor region, which was the first to be colonized in Brazil. The region experienced some dynamism as a result of its early role as a centre of the agricultural export economy. However, historical and political circumstances resulted in a society in which there was a successive failure to build up the level of human capital level in the region. In particular, low access to political power of disadvantaged social groups prevented the implementation of an inclusive educational policy. This generated low per capita GDP and productivity growth, when compared to the national average. The prospects that some convergence with the national average will occur are only partial and restricted.

scholarly journals Dependency and Underdevelopment: The Nepalese Context

1970 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 202-220
Author(s):  
Samira Luitel
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
World Bank Report ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
Productive Land

The World Bank report (1991) mentioned that "Nepal is one of the world's poorest countries. It ranks 115th in per capita GNP out of 120 countries. With respect to life expectancy, it ranks 103rd out of 118 reporting countries. It is one of the constellations of countries characterized by rapid population increase, low or negative per capita GDP growth and a slow transition out of a subsistence agricultural economy. It exhibits many of the characteristics of similar sub-Saharan African economies, including a limited productive land base, a land-locked location, and a very low level of exports."   DOI: 10.3126/opsa.v11i0.3037 Occasional Papers in Sociology and Anthropology Vol.11 2009 202-220

Evaluating the World Bank’s Major Reports: A Review Essay

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 5-10
Author(s):  
Robert S. Browne
Keyword(s):  
Review Essay ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Energy Prices ◽  
Social Infrastructure ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Economic Stagnation ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

As the decade of the 1970’s drew to a close, Africa’s leaders were becoming concerned over the economic stagnation visibly creeping across the Continent. The dramatic escalation in energy prices, combined with the general world inflation, had palpably shifted the terms of trade against the African petroleum importers, effectively neutralizing the higher commodity prices which African exports had enjoyed in the earlier years of the decade. Per capita GDP figures, which in most of Africa had been rising since independence, had begun to slip. In some countries the physical and social infrastructure was clearly detriorating.

Estimation of per capita GDP in the regions of Russia

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (6) ◽  
pp. 25-28
Author(s):  
Басовская ◽  
Elena Basovskaya
Keyword(s):  
Great Britain ◽  
International Comparisons ◽  
Value Added ◽  
The Other ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Gross Value Added ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Regions Of Russia

The purpose of the work consisted in assessment of size of per capita GDP in regions of the country, which would be comparable to estimates of per capita GDP in the countries of the world. For receiving assessment, the per capita GDP during 2001-2014 was compared with the size of the gross value added of goods and services created by residents of regions. The treated ratios are used for GDP assessment in regions. The established sizes of per capita GDP in regions are used for the international comparisons. The executed comparisons show that the sizes of per capita GDP of the regions of the country are different. The level of development of some region is comparable with the level of development of leading economies of the world, such as Norway, Great Britain, and Denmark. The level of development of the other regions of the country is comparable with the level of the poorest countries of the world.

Developing Economies in A Borderless World

2000 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-62
Author(s):  
P.K. Jain ◽  
Manmohan Yadav
Keyword(s):  
South Asian ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
The South ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

The “Death of Distance” will be the single most important economic force shaping the society over the next half century with geography, borders and time zones becoming irrelevant with the new communication revolution. The world trade has increased manifolds since World War II and the merchandise exports have increased to about $6,000 billion today from just $50 billion in 1950 while the trade in services is increasing faster and stands at about $1,450 billion as the economies are opening up and integrating with the world economy. As evident from the experience of the countries that followed open-market and free trade policies, achieved higher growth rates in their GDP, per capita GDP, and the exports than the closed economies. As more and more countries are opening their economies and integrating with the world economy and the revolution in IT, we are heading towards a “borderless” world with free flow of trade and resources. The autarkic strategies for economic development followed by India since its independence inevitably cut the economy off from the technological advancements in rest of the world and as a result India still remains way behind the industrialised economies. Also, despite above average growth in India's GDP and exports since 1970s than the world average, India's per capita GDP is among the lowest at $370. Even the most populous country in the world, China has per capita GDP of $860. The balance-of-payments crisis in mid-1991 forced the Indian policymakers to make a paradigm shift, though under IMF-led bail out package and prescription for structural adjustments, in its economic, industrial, and trade policies more commonly known as the “economic reforms”- liberalisation and globalisation of Indian economy. While the reforms have helped overcome the liquidity crisis and the economy broadly got back to the growth charted in 1980s, yet the structural adjustments have propelled investment in non-traded goods and in buying out of well performing Indian companies and brands by the MNCs than actually increasing the gross fixed capital formation in the manufacturing sector with the modern technologies. It is under this background and the similarities in cultural, political, ethnic and alike factors among the South Asian countries, that the present paper aims at analysing and learning lessons from the progressive aspects as well as failures of India's economic reforms, while the South Asian countries emulated the same.

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