Analysis of the relationship between the unemployment rate and the contribution of the productive sectors to GDP in Sudan: using ARDL: تحليل العلاقة بين معدل البطالة ومساهمة القطاعات الإنتاجية بالناتج المحلي الإجمالي في السودان: باستخدام نماذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع ARDL

The study aims to examine the relationship between the unemployment rate and the contribution of the productive sectors to gross domestic product (GDP) in Sudan. It is assumed that there is statistically significant relationship between the unemployment rate and the contribution of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors in the GDP. The variables were subjected to several econometrics tests, such as Augmented Dickey–Fuller test (ADF), Autoregressive Distributed- lagged (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the short- and long- term relationship between study variables. The results of the descriptive analysis indicate that the average of unemployment rate is (17.7%) exceeds the average growth rate (4.9%) more than three times. While the results of the econometrics tests, including Augmented Dickey–Fuller, confirmed that the time series of the contribution of the agricultural and the industrial sectors are integrated from the degree one, while the time series of the unemployment rate is stationary at the level. The bounds test for co- integration within the Autoregressive Distributed- lagged methodology results provided evidence of a long- run equilibrium relationship between the unemployment rate and the share of productive sectors in GDP. While the estimation results of the long- run parameters of the ARDL the model showed a negative correlation between the unemployment rate and the share of the industrial sectors in the gross domestic product, with a time lag of (4) time periods. While the results of the error correction model confirmed that the unemployment rate is adjusted to its equilibrium value in each time period by 4.4% of the remaining balance of the period with onetime lag. According to the results, the study recommended restructuring the productive sectors of the Sudanese economy, increasing the investments directed towards them, developing them, raising their efficiency, absorptive and operational capacity through multiple strategies that seek to increase employment opportunities. In addition to improve the efficiency of Sudanese labor through the development of educational curricula, training programs and professional to improve the efficiency of the supply of labor and increasing the demand for them in a way that absorbs the increasing numbers in the workforce. In addition to adopts strategies that focus on transformational training in line with current and future markets need.

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The Long-Run and Short-Run Impacts of Investment, Export, Money Supply, and Inflation on Economic Growth In Indonesia

Journal of Economics Business and Accountancy Ventura ◽

10.14414/jebav.v22i1.1589 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 22 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Erni Panca Kurniasih

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Money Supply ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Term Investment

ABSTRACTThe development of investment and exports in Indonesia shows an increase, as well as money supply, while the inflation rate shows a decline, but this is not always followed by increasing economic growth. This study aims to explain the relationship between investment, export, money supply and inflation with the economic growth in Indonesia. The data used was time series data from the first quarter in 2001 to the fourth quarter in 2014 and was analyzed using multiple regression models with Error Correction Model (ECM) and classical assumptions. The study findings show that in short-term investment, export, money supply and inflation are not significant to economic growth. In long-run, investment has negative and significant effect on the economic growth, while export, money supply and inflation have positive and significant effect on the economic growth in Indonesia. Bank Indonesia must applied a tight money policy consistently to achieve the long-term inflation target ABSTRAKPerkembangan investasi dan ekspor di Indonesia menunjukkan peningkatan, demikian pula jumlah uang beredar, sementara tingkat inflasi menunjukkan penurunan, namun hal tersebut tidak selalu diikuti dengan meningkatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi. Studi ini bertujuan untuk menjelaskan hubungan antara investasi, ekspor neto, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Data yang digunakan adalah data time series dari kuartal pertama tahun 2001 hingga kuartal keempat tahun 2014 dan dianalisa dengan menggunakan model regresi berganda dengan Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil studi menunjukkan bahwa investasi, ekspor, jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi tidak signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, sedangkan ekspor , jumlah uang beredar dan inflasi berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Bank Indonesia harus menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ketat secara konsisten pada pencapaian sasaran inflasi jangka menenngah

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Causality between VAT and economic growth in Nigeria: An ARDL bounds testing approach

Journal of Emerging Economies and Islamic Research ◽

10.24191/jeeir.v6i1.8774 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 55

Author(s):

Hammed Agboola Yusuf ◽

Irwan Shah Zainal Abidin ◽

Normiza Bakar ◽

Oluwaseyi Hammed Musibau

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Trade Openness ◽

Value Added ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Domestic Investment ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

Value Added Tax(VAT) is a consumption tax imposed at every stage of consumption level whose burden is burned by final consumer of goods and services. In most developing economies in the world, VAT as a source of revenue to the government that has been notable for its significant role in ensuring economic efficiency. However, VAT revenue has been underutilised in Nigeria due to a high level of corruption in the process of administering the tax. This study examines the impact of VAT, domestic investment and trade openness on economic growth in Nigeria from 1980 to 2016 using ARDL techniques. The research design is time series, and the data were analysed using time series unit root test, error correction model regression, short run and long run ARDL. The result found that VAT, domestic investment and trade openness had a positive and significant impact on real GDP. Also, corruption index is negative also significant in the long run. In the same vein, past value added tax had a negative and weak significant impact on real gross domestic product indicating convergence to long-run causality between economic growths and VAT and economic growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM (-1)) coefficient had a negative and statistically significant sign. This shows that 39 percent can quickly correct short-run deviation. The study, therefore, recommends that tax administrative loopholes should be plugged for tax revenue to contribute immensely to the development of the economy since past VAT had a significant impact on economic growth.

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Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

Pelita Perkebunan (a Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal) ◽

10.22302/iccri.jur.pelitaperkebunan.v29i3.15 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 29 (3) ◽

Author(s):

Lya Aklimawati ◽

Teguh Wahyudi

Keyword(s):

Exchange Rate ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Significance Level ◽

Long Run ◽

Price Determinants

High volatility cocoa price movement is consequenced by imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in the international commerce. Dynamic prices moving erratically influence the benefit of market players, particularly producers. The aim of this research is (1) to estimate the empirical cocoa prices model for responding market dynamics and (2) analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables on cocoa prices. This research was carried out by analyzing annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM) approach was used to estimate the econometric model of cocoa price.The estimation results indicated that cocoa price was significantly affected by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1), while other variables were inelastic (E <1). Variables that affecting cocoa pricesin short run equilibrium were exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product, world inflation, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock. The analysis results showed that world gross domestic product, world cocoa consumption and world cocoa stock were elastic (E >1) to cocoa prices in short-term. Whereas, the response of cocoa prices was inelastic to change of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price determinants, cocoa, Error Correction Model, demand, supply, stock

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NONLINEARITIES IN THE DYNAMICS OF THE EURO AREA DEMAND FOR M1

Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽

10.1017/s1365100508070405 ◽

2009 ◽

Vol 13 (1) ◽

pp. 1-19 ◽

Cited By ~ 216

Author(s):

Alessandro Calza ◽

Andrea Zaghini

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Euro Area ◽

Money Demand ◽

The United States ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Past ◽

Long Run ◽

Theoretical Predictions ◽

The Relationship

This paper finds evidence of nonlinearities in the dynamics of the euro area demand for the narrow aggregate M1. A long-run money demand relationship is first estimated over a sample period covering the past three decades. Although the parameters of the relationship are jointly stable, there are indications of nonlinearity in the residuals of the error-correction model. This nonlinearity is explicitly modeled using a fairly general Markov switching error-correction model with satisfactory results. The empirical findings of the paper are consistent with theoretical predictions of nonlinearities in the dynamics of adjustment to equilibrium stemming from “buffer stock” and “target-threshold” models and with analogous empirical evidence for European countries and the United States.

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INTERAKSI ASPEK PERMODALAN, RISIKO PEMBIAYAAN, DAN INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DALAM MEMPENGARUHI PROFITABILITAS BPRS DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2014-2018

Jurnal Benefita ◽

10.22216/jbe.v5i3.5623 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 401

Author(s):

Feri Irawan

Keyword(s):

Economic Growth ◽

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Series Data ◽

Short Term ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short And Long Term

ABSTRACTThis study aims to analyze the effect of capital aspects (CAR), financing risk (NPF) and macroeconomic variables including economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate on profitability (ROE) in the short and long term. By using time series data for the monthly period from 2013-2018 and the Error-Correction Model (ECM) and cointegration approach, it is found that CAR and NPF do not have a significant effect on ROE in the short and long term. Economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate in the short term do not have a significant effect on ROE, in the long run economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate have a significant effect on ROE. In the short term, economic growth, inflation and the BI Rate disturb the balance of profitability, but in the long run it returns to its equilibrium level. It is necessary to integrate the BPRS policy strategy in managing capital and risk with government policies related to economic growth and inflation. ABSTRACTPenelitian bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh aspek permodalan (CAR), risiko pembiayaan (NPF) dan variabel makroekonomi yang meliputi pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dam BI Rate terhadap profitabilitas (ROE) dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Dengan menggunakan data time series periode bulanan dari tahun 2013-2018 dan pendekatan Error-Correction Model (ECM) dan kointegrasi, ditemukan bahwa CAR dan NPF tidak berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap ROE dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate dalam jangka pendek tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ROE, dalam jangka panjang pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate berpengaruh signfikan terhadap ROE. Pada jangka pendek, pertumbuhan ekonomi, inflasi dan BI Rate menggangu keseimbangan profitabilitas namun dalam jangka panjang kembali pada tingkat keseimbangannya. Diperlukan pengintegrasi strategi kebijakan BPRS dalam mengelola permodalan dan risiko dengan kebijakan pemerintah terkait dengan pertumbuhan ekonomi dan inflasi.

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Cointegration Analysis and Forecasting of the Export Function of Bangladesh Using the Error Correction Model

10.21203/rs.3.rs-70018/v1 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

K M Saemon Islam ◽

Gautam Kumar Biswas

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Gross Domestic Product ◽

Error Correction ◽

Correction Term ◽

The United States ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Cointegration Analysis ◽

Domestic Product ◽

Correction Model ◽

The Relationship

Abstract In this paper, we examined the relationship between the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States, the export value index, and the export of Bangladesh over 37 years between 1980 and 2016. The results of our preliminary tests showed that there was indeed a long-run relationship between these variables. Based on our preliminary analysis, we employed an error-correction model to identify the relationship between the variables. The error-correction term with the expected negative sign was statistically significant, and it confirmed that in the case of disequilibrium, the convergence towards the equilibrium happened in the subsequent periods. Additionally, the econometric estimates exhibited that the two-period lagged values of the growth in export of Bangladesh and the growth of the Gross Domestic Product of the United States were also statistically significant.JEL Classification: C22, C5, F41

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The Effect of Cultivated Area and the Prices of Buying the Rice on Its Production in AL- Qadisiyah Province-Iraq During (1990-2014) by Using VECM

Al-Qadisiyah Journal For Agriculture Sciences (QJAS) (P-ISSN 2077-5822 E-ISSN 2617-1479) ◽

10.33794/qjas.vol7.iss1.13 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 7 (1) ◽

pp. 102-113

Author(s):

Hayder Abbas Drebee

Keyword(s):

Error Correction ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction Model ◽

Purchase Price ◽

Correction Model ◽

Vector Error Correction ◽

Vector Error ◽

Long Run ◽

The Relationship

The study aims to determine the effect of the cultivated area and the purchase price on the production of rice in the province of Al-Qadissiya - Iraq for the period (1990-2014). Johansen and Juseliusmethod is used to test the co-integration between the variables. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to determine the direction of the causality between production and priceof rice, as well as between the production of rice and the area cultivated in the short and long run. The analysis of the results shows that there is a co-integration among the variables, and the direction of the relationship is a directional move from cultivated area to production of rice, and from price to production of rice in the short and long run. The study recommends to expand the cultivated area along with maintaining the farm and not to converted to other crops, in addition of determining the purchase price of the crop at the beginning of the agricultural season to ensure a good income for farmers in order to motivate them to increase production.

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Analyzing The Macroeconomic and Fundamental Determinants of Non-Performing Financing of Bank Muamalat Indonesia

Economica Jurnal Ekonomi Islam ◽

10.21580/economica.2020.11.1.4346 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

pp. 49-78

Author(s):

Pungky Lela Saputri ◽

Ratno Agriyanto ◽

Mujiyono Abdillah

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Error Correction ◽

Time Series Data ◽

Error Correction Model ◽

Capital Adequacy ◽

Series Data ◽

Islamic Banking ◽

Correction Model ◽

Long Run ◽

Short Run

Abstract: This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fundamentals of Islamic banking factors towards the non-performing financing (NPF) of Bank Muamalat Indonesia in the long run and short-run period 2005-2018. The data used in this study are quarterly time-series data of Bank Muamalat Indonesia Financial Report as the source of fundamentals of Islamic banking data and Bank Indonesia Monetary Policy Review as the source of macroeconomic data period 2005 - 2018. The analytical method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM). This study shows that in the long run, inflation, central bank (Bank Indonesia/BI) Rate, and capital adequacy ratio (CAR) significantly affect the NPF; meanwhile, the financing to deposit (FDR) ratio does not affect NPF. In the short term context, only CAR has a significant effect, yet inflation, BI Rate, and FDR have no significant impact on NPF. Thus, the novelty can present the result of analysis of factors that affect NPF in the long run and short run. The limitation of the study is the use of time-series data that are very likely to spurious regression.Abstrak: Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh faktor makroekonomi dan fundamental perbankan syariah terhadap NPF Bank Muamalat Indonesia dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek periode 2005-2018. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu data runtun waktu Laporan Keuangan Triwulan Bank Muamalat Indonesia sebagai sumber data fundamental perbankan syariah dan Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter Bank Indonesia sebagai sumber data makroekonomi periode 2005 – 2018. Faktor makroekonomi diwujudkan dalam variabel Inflasi dan BI Rate. Faktor fundamental perbankan syariah diwujudkan dalam variabel CAR dan FDR. Alat analisis yang digunakan yaitu Error Correction Model (ECM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan dalam jangka panjang Inflasi, BI Rate, dan CAR dengan nilai signifikansi 0.0026, 0.0001, dan 0.0032 berpengaruh signifikan dan FDR dengan nilai signifikansi 0.6940 tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap NPF. Dalam jangka pendek hanya CAR dengan nilai signifikansi 0.0056 yang berpengaruh signifikan sedangkan Inflasi, BI Rate, dan FDR dengan nilai signifikansi 0.0666, 0.9532, and 0.2065 berpengaruh tidak signifikan terhadap NPF. Kebaharuan penelitian ini yaitu penelitian ini mampu menyajikan hasil analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi NPF dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek. Meski begitu, terdapat juga limitasi pada penelitian ini yaitu penggunaan data time series yang rawan terkena regresi lancung.

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