Gazing Into the Crystal Ball: Are Majority Groups Threatened by a Minority-Majority Future?

<p>By the mid to late 21st century, it is projected that ethnic European majority groups will account for less than half the total populations of many Western countries. As a result of this projected ethnic shift, these countries will become “minority-majority” nations. Three experiments were conducted in New Zealand to investigate how present-day majority group members (New Zealand Europeans) perceive and react to a projected minority-majority future. It was found that those exposed to a minority-majority future expressed greater feelings of ingroup sympathy than those presented with present-day demographic information. However, contrary to the findings of similar research conducted in North America, the minority-majority future was not associated with negative attitudes towards migrants or greater ingroup serving biases. When comparing two projected future conditions (New Zealand European-majority future vs. a minority-majority future), participants in the minority-majority condition expressed greater belief that the nation would possess more positive characteristics than those in the New Zealand European-majority condition. Additionally, the experimental condition was found to moderate the relationship between future expectations and present-day attitudes and action intentions. Depending on the strength of expectations for future societal dysfunction, development, and benevolence, participants in the minority-majority condition were more or less likely to engage in present-day pro-diversity actions or perceive diversity as threatening. Implications for theoretical research and New Zealand intergroup dynamics are discussed.</p>