scholarly journals Simulação da Precipitação Sazonal com o Regcm4 sobre o Estado do Pará para Anos de El Niño e La Niña (Simulation of Seasonal Precipitation with Regcm4 about the State of Pará for Years of El Niño and La Niña)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 1316
Author(s):  
Pâmela Lorena Ribeiro Ávila ◽  
Everaldo Barreiros de Souza ◽  
Amanda Nascimento Pinheiro
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
La Nina

Este trabalho apresenta uma contribuição aos estudos de modelagem climática com ênfase na variabilidade pluviométrica sazonal do estado do Pará, durante as estações de verão e outono (DJF e MAM). Baseado nos resultados das simulações regionais do RegCM4 para os anos de El Niño (1982/83) e Lã Niña (1988/89) usando domínio em alta resolução espacial (50 Km) e dois diferentes esquemas de convecção (Grell e MIT), foi investigado o desempenho do modelo em simular a distribuição regional de precipitação sazonal no estado do Pará. As análises quantitativas evidenciaram que o RegCM4 apresenta erros sistemáticos, sobretudo aqueles relacionados a uma subestimativa das chuvas nas três grades (G1, G2, G3) para os anos de El Niño e Lã Niña sendo representativo apenas em pequenas áreas na região sudeste do estado no período do verão para o esquema Grell, e mostrou-se mais representativo na grade G2 do para o ano de El Niño no esquema MIT. Além disso, através da técnica de composições, também foi investigado o desempenho do RegCM4 em reproduzir os padrões espaciais anômalos de precipitação sazonal em associação aos episódios ENOS, e as fases do gradiente térmico sobre o Atlântico intertropical. Os resultados demonstraram que o modelo conseguiu representar realisticamente bem o padrão espacial das anomalias pluviométricas acima (abaixo) do normal em grande parte da Amazônia oriental, durante os conhecidos cenários favoráveis, i.e., condições de La Niña e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico sul (desfavoráveis, i.e., El Niño e gradiente de aTSM para o Atlântico norte). A B S T R A C T This paper presents a contribution to studies of climate modeling with emphasis on seasonal rainfall variability in the state of Pará, during the summer and autumn (DJF and MAM). Based on the results of simulations of regional RegCM4 for El Niño years (1982/83) and La Niña (1988/89) using the field at high spatial resolution (40 km) and two different convection schemes (Grell and MIT), was investigated the performance of the model to simulate the regional distribution of seasonal rainfall in the state of Pará. The quantitative analysis showed that the RegCM4 presents systematic errors, especially those related to an underestimation of rain in three grades (G1, G2, G3) for the years of El Niño and La Niña are representative only in small areas in the southeastern state in summer period for the Grell scheme, and was more representative of the grid G2 for the year of El Niño in the MIT scheme. Moreover, using the technique of composition, was also investigated in the performance of RegCM4 reproduce the spatial patterns of anomalous seasonal rainfall in association with ENSO episodes and phases of the thermal gradient over the Atlantic intertropical. The results showed that the model represented realistically and spatial patterns of rainfall anomalies above (below) of normal in much of the eastern Amazon, during the known favorable scenarios, ie, La Niña and gradient SSTa South Atlantic (unfavorable, ie, El Niño and gradient SSTa North Atlantic). Keywords: seasonal rainfall, El Nino, La Nina, Amazon, ENSO, RegCM4.

scholarly journals Análise Das Séries Temporais De Precipitação Do Semiárido Paraibano Em Um Período De 100 Anos - 1911 A 2010 (Analysis Of The Time Series Of Precipitation Of The Paraiba Semi Arid In A Period Of 100 Years - 1911 To 2010)

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 680
Author(s):  
Milla Nobrega de Menezes Costa ◽  
Carmem Terezinha Becker ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Average Rainfall ◽  
Semi Arid

O estado da Paraíba apresenta cerca de 76% do seu território abrangido pela região semiárida do Nordeste brasileiro, incluindo 170 dos 223 municípios, dentre estes, estão os municípios de Antenor Navarro atual São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Catolé do Rocha e Soledade que se sobressaem como importantes polos agrícolas e econômicos do estado, e que frequentemente são afetados pela alta variabilidade climática. Neste trabalho, foi analisado para estes 4 municípios a distribuição pluviométrica num período de cem anos (de 1911 até o ano de 2010) verificando as variações e/ou tendências nas suas séries temporais e investigando se existe uma relação entre a Oscilação Decenal do Pacífico (ODP) com a pluviometria anual das 4 localidades. A partir dos resultados obtidos, verificou-se que São João do Rio do Peixe tem a maior média pluviométrica, porém a tendência de sua série temporal apresentando-se negativa, em contraposto aos outros municípios que apresentaram médias pluviométricas menores, porém com tendências positivas. A investigação da influência da ODP na precipitação anual normalizada das séries analisadas mostrou que uma parcela da ODP influência na variabilidade pluviométrica, porém depende da sua intensidade e de outros fatores tais como o dipolo do Atlântico Tropical e eventos de El Niño/La Niña, indicando que maiores investigações devem ser feitas. A B S T R A C T The state of Paraíba has about 76% of its territory covered by the semi-arid region of Northeast Brazil, including 170 of the 223 municipalities, among these are the municipalities of Antenor Navarro current São João do Rio do Peixe, Princesa Isabel, Soledade and Catolé that stand out as important agricultural and economic centers of the state, which are often affected by high climatic variability. This work was analyzed for these four counties rainfall distribution over one hundred years (1911 until 2010) verifying the changes and / or trends in their series and investigating whether there is a relationship between the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( ODP) with annual rainfall of 4 locations. From the results obtained, it was found that St. John's River Fish has the highest average rainfall, but the tendency of his series showed up negative in opposed to other municipalities that had lower average rainfall, but with positive trends. The investigation of the influence of PDO on normalized annual rainfall series analyzed, showed that a portion of the ODP influence on rainfall variability, but depends on their strength and other factors such as the Tropical Atlantic dipole and El Niño / La Niña, indicating that further investigations should be made.

scholarly journals Simulated enhancement of ENSO-related rainfall variability due to Australian dust

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1595-1639 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. D. Rotstayn ◽  
M. A. Collier ◽  
R. M. Mitchell ◽  
Y. Qin ◽  
S. K. Campbell
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Atmospheric Heating ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Eastern Australia

Abstract. Average dust emissions from Australia are small compared to those from the major sources in the Northern Hemisphere. However, they are highly episodic, and this may increase the importance of Australian dust as a climate feedback agent. We compare two 160-year coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations of modern-day climate using the CSIRO Mark 3.6 global climate model (GCM). The first run (DUST) includes an interactive treatment of mineral dust and its direct radiative effects. The second run (NODUST) is otherwise identical, but has the Australian dust source set to zero. We focus on the austral spring season, when the correlation between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is strongest over Australia. We find that the ENSO-rainfall relationship over eastern Australia is stronger in the DUST run: dry (El Niño) years tend to be drier, and wet (La Niña) years wetter. The ENSO-rainfall relationship is also weaker over north-western Australia in the DUST run. The amplification of ENSO-related rainfall variability over eastern Australia and the weaker ENSO-rainfall relationship over the north-west both represent an improvement relative to observations. The suggested mechanism over eastern Australia involves stabilisation of the surface layer due to enhanced atmospheric heating and surface cooling in El Niño years, and enhanced ascent and moisture convergence driven by atmospheric heating in La Niña years. The results suggest that (1) a realistic treatment of Australian dust may be necessary for accurate simulation of the ENSO-rainfall relationship over Australia, and (2) radiative feedbacks involving dust may be important for understanding natural rainfall variability over Australia.

scholarly journals Identification of Rainfall Homogenous Regions taking into account El Niño and La Niña and Rainfall Decrease in the state of Pará, Brazilian Amazon

2016 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariane Furtado Gonçalves ◽  
Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco ◽  
Vanessa Conceição dos Santos ◽  
Luciana Leal dos Santos Oliveira ◽  
Francisco Carlos Lira Pessoa
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Brazilian Amazon ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina

scholarly journals Homogenous regions and rainfall probability models considering El Niño and La Niña in the State of Pará in the Amazon

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 37742 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mariane Furtado Gonçalves ◽  
Claudio José Cavalcante Blanco ◽  
Vanessa Conceição dos Santos ◽  
Luciana Leal dos Santos Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Probability Models ◽  
La Nina

How Much Do Tropical Cyclones Affect Seasonal and Interannual Rainfall Variability over the Western North Pacific?

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (20) ◽  
pp. 5495-5510 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hisayuki Kubota ◽  
Bin Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Interannual Rainfall Variability

Abstract The authors investigate the effects of tropical cyclones (TCs) on seasonal and interannual rainfall variability over the western North Pacific (WNP) by using rainfall data at 22 stations. The TC-induced rainfall at each station is estimated by using station data when a TC is located within the influential radius (1000 km) from the station. The spatial–temporal variability of the proportion of TC rainfall is examined primarily along the east–west island chain near 10°N (between 7° and 13°N) and the north–south island chain near 125°E (between 120° and 130°E). Along 10°N the seasonality of total rainfall is mainly determined by non-TC rainfall that is influenced by the WNP monsoon trough. The proportion of the TC rain is relatively low. During the high TC season from July to December, TC rainfall accounts for 30% of the total rainfall in Guam, 15%–23% in Koror and Yap, and less than 10% at other stations. In contrast, along 125°E where the WNP subtropical high is located, the TC rainfall accounts for 50%–60% of the total rainfall between 18° and 26°N during the peak TC season from July to October. In Hualien of Taiwan, TC rainfall exceeds 60% of the total rainfall. The interannual variability of the TC rainfall and total rainfall is primarily modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Along 10°N, the ratio of TC rainfall versus total rainfall is higher than the climatology during developing and mature phases of El Niño (from March to the following January), whereas the ratio is below the climatology during the decaying phase of El Niño. The opposite is true for La Niña, except that the impact of La Niña is shorter in duration. Furthermore, in summer of El Niño developing years, the total seasonal rainfall increases primarily because of the increase of TC rainfall. In the ensuing autumn, an anticyclonic anomaly develops over the Philippine Sea and TC rainfall shifts eastward; as a result, the total rainfall over the Philippines and Taiwan decreases. The total rainfall to the east of 140°E, however, changes little, because the westward passage of TCs enhances TC rainfall, which offsets the decrease of non-TC rainfall. Along the meridional island chain between 120° and 130°E, the total rainfall anomaly is affected by ENSO starting from the autumn to the following spring, and the variation in TC rainfall dominates the total rainfall variation only in autumn (August–November) of ENSO years. The results from this study suggest that in the tropical WNP and subtropical East Asian monsoon regions (east of 120°E), the seasonal and interannual variations of rainfall are controlled by changes in nonlocal circulations. These changes outside the monsoon domain may substantially affect summer monsoon rainfall by changing TC genesis and tracks.

scholarly journals Investigação da Influência do El Niño e da La Niña Sobre a Variabilidade da Precipitação na Cidade de Patos, Paraíba.

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 336
Author(s):  
Shayenny Alves de Medeiros ◽  
Raul Araújo da Nóbrega ◽  
João Miguel De Moraes Neto ◽  
Aldinete Bezerra Barreto ◽  
Gleyka Nóbrega Vasconcelos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Total Data ◽  
State Water ◽  
Annual Total ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies

A área de interesse para este estudo foi o município Patos- PB, onde foram utilizados dados totais mensais e anuais (1960-2019) da precipitação, disponibilizados pela Superintendência do Desenvolvimento do Nordeste (SUDENE) e pela Agência Executiva de Gestão das Águas do Estado da Paraíba (AESA). Os dados foram utilizados para estudar a variabilidade da chuva, investigando as anomalias de precipitação em anos de ocorrência El Niño e La Niña. A Técnica utilizada foi a dos Percentis que determinou a classe pluviométrica da precipitação caracterizando os totais nas seguintes classes: Muito Seco (MS), Seco (S), Normal (N), Chuvoso (CH) e Muito Chuvoso (MC). Os resultados destacam os meses de janeiro a abril com as máximas precipitações mensais, representando 86,85% do total anual esperado, e os meses de menor ocorrência de chuvas são de agosto a outubro. Foi utilizada a técnica do Desvio Padronizado de Precipitação (DPP) para investigar a existência de influência dos eventos El Niño e La Niña, na variabilidade das precipitações. Os (DPP) mensais apresentam valores negativos e positivos, entre -1,71 e 5,62. Observou-se que os DPP negativos predominam tanto na época de El Niño (70,21%) quanto de La Niña (59,09%), não representando uma evidência significativa da influência dos fenômenos sobre a variabilidade da chuva.  Investigation of the Influence of El Niño and La Niña on the Variability of Precipitation in the City of Patos, ParaíbaA B S T R A C TThe area of interest for this study was the municipality of Patos-PB, where were used monthly and annual total data (1960-2019) of rainfall, provided by the Northeast Development Superintendence (SUDENE) and the Executive State Water Management Agency Paraíba. Data were used to study rainfall variability, investigating precipitation anomalies in years of occurrence El Niño and La Niña. The technique used was the Percentiles that determined the rainfall class characterizing the totals in the following classes: Very Dry (VD), Dry (D), Normal (N), Rainy (R) and Very Rainy (VR). The results highlight the months from January to April with the highest monthly rainfall, representing 86.85% of the expected annual total, and the months with the lowest rainfall are from August to October. The Standardized Precipitation Deviation (SPD) technique was used to investigate the influence of El Niño and La Niña events on precipitation variability. The monthly (SPD) values  are negative and positive, between -1.71 and 5.62. When analyzing the DPPs separately for the years with the occurrence of the events El Niño and La Niña, it is concluded that there is a predominance of negative DPPs with annual averages of 70.21 and 59.09% respectively, thus, not representing significant evidence of the influence of phenomena on rainfall variability.Keywords: Rainfall, Quantis, Standard Deviation 

scholarly journals An assessment of El Niño and La Niña impacts focused on monthly and seasonal rainfall and extreme dry/precipitation events in mountain regions of Colombia and México

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 ◽  
pp. 23-33 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Carolina Pinilla Herrera ◽  
Carlos Andrés Pinzón Correa
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Seasonal Rainfall ◽  
Seasonal Precipitation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Mountain Landscapes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The influence of El Niño and La Niña on monthly and seasonal rainfall over mountain landscapes in Colombia and México was assessed based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). A statistical analysis was develop to compare the extreme dry/precipitation events between El Niño, La Niña and Neutral episodes. For both areas, it was observed that El Niño and La Niña episodes are associated with important increases or decreases in rainfall. However, Neutral episodes showed the highest occurrence of extreme precipitation/dry events. For a better understanding of the impact of El Niño and La Niña on seasonal precipitation, we did a compound and a GIS analyses to define the high/low probability of above, below or normal seasonal precipitation under El Niño, La Niña and cold/warm Neutral episodes. In San Vicente, Colombia the below-normal seasonal rainfall was identified during El Niño and Neutral episodes in the dry season JJA. In this same municipality we also found above-normal seasonal rainfall during La Niña and Neutral episodes, especially in the dry season DJF. In Tancítaro México the below-normal seasonal rainfall was identified during La Niña winters (DJF) and El Niño summers (JJA), the above-normal seasonal rainfall was found during La Niña summers (JJA) and El Niño winters (DJF).

scholarly journals ORBITAL AND SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMPARED TO FAO-56 STANDARD IN STATE OF ACRE

Irriga ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 547-559
Author(s):  
Rafael Coll Delgado ◽  
Leonardo Paula de Souza ◽  
Marcos Gervásio Pereira ◽  
Catherine Torres de Almeida ◽  
Rafael De Ávila Rodrigues
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Rio De Janeiro ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Life Cycles ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Surface Data ◽  
Weather Stations

ORBITAL AND SURFACE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION COMPARED TO FAO-56 STANDARD IN STATE OF ACRE  RAFAEL COLL DELGADO1; LEONARDO PAULA DE SOUZA2; MARCOS GERVASIO PEREIRA3; CATHERINE TORRES DE ALMEIDA4 E RAFAEL DE ÁVILA RODRIGUES5 1Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Professor Doutor do Instituto de Florestas, Departamento de Ciências Ambientais, UFRRJ, CEP 23890-000, Seropédica, RJ, Brasil, [email protected]; 2Universidade Federal do Acre, Professor Doutor do Centro de Ciências Biológicas e da Natureza, UFAC, CEP 69.920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brasil,  [email protected];   3Universidade Federal Rural do Rio de Janeiro, Professor Doutor do Departamento de Solos, UFRRJ, CEP 23890-000, Seropédica, RJ, Brasil,  [email protected];4Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Doutoranda em Sensoriamento Remoto, INPE, CEP 65250-000, São José dos Campos, SP, Brasil, [email protected];5Universidade Federal de Goiás, Professor Doutor da Unidade Acadêmica Especial, Instituto de Geografia, UFG, CEP 75704-020, Catalão, GO, Brasil, [email protected].  1 ABSTRACT Evapotranspiration is a critical component of the hydrological and life cycles, with a major impact on water consumption by the population, agricultural activities, and the global climate. This study aims to compare the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) eight different empirical methods with the FAO-56 standard, using orbital and surface data for the years 2003 and 2008 in the State of Acre. For surface data methods, the Irmak-2 and Val-4 showed a higher performance and the Alexandris method showed the worst performance compared with the FAO-56 standard. The spatial distribution of ETo derived of the orbital data method were compared based on the annual mean, presenting lower ETo (2.26 mm d-1) in 2003 and higher average (3.94 mm d-1) in 2008. This interannual variability of ETo may be associated with moderate El Niño events in 2003 and strong La Niña in 2008. The statistical analysis showed satisfactory results of the evapotranspiration mean values for the years 2003 and 2008 obtained by MODIS sensor data, but it is important to have a greater representation of weather stations in the state for future studies. The results serve as a subsidy for water demand estimates of vegetation, as well for biomass productivity and changing landscape studies. Keywords: orbital platforms, water availability, weather stations.  DELGADO, R. C.; SOUZA, L. P.; PEREIRA, M. G.; ALMEIDA, C. T.; RODRIGUES, R. A. EVAPOTRANSPIRAÇÃO ORBITAL E DE SUPERFÍCIE COMPARADOS AO PADRÃO FAO-56 NO ESTADO DO ACRE  2 RESUMO A Evapotranspiração é um componente crítico do ciclo hidrológico e da vida, com grande impacto no consumo de água pela população, em atividades agrícolas e no clima global. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo comparar a evapotranspiração de referência (ETo) a partir de diferentes métodos ao padrão FAO-56, utilizando dados orbitais e de superfície para os anos de 2003 e 2008 no Estado do Acre. Para os dados de superfície, o Irmak-2 e o Val-4 mostraram um maior desempenho e o método proposto por Alexandris o pior desempenho em comparação ao padrão FAO-56. A distribuição espacial dos valores de ETo foi comparada com base nos valores médios anuais, sendo que o período de 2003 apresentou ETo mais baixa (2.26 mm d-1) e o ano de 2008 os valores mais elevados (3.94 mm d-1). Esta variabilidade de ETo pode estar associada aos eventos de El Niño moderado em 2003 e La Niña forte em 2008. A análise estatística apresentou resultados satisfatórios dos valores médios para os anos de 2003 e 2008 de evapotranspiração obtidos pelo sensor MODIS, porém é importante que haja uma maior representativadade das EMS no estado para estudos futuros. Os resultados servem como subsídio para estimativas de demanda hídrica da vegetação, como também para estudos de produtividade de fitomassa e mudança da paisagem. Palavras-Chave: plataformas orbitais, disponibilidade de água, estações meteorológicas.

scholarly journals Identificação das causas climáticas dos eventos extremos e dos impactos dos ENOS Canônico e Modoki nas macrorregiões de Alagoas

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1880-1897
Author(s):  
Djane Fonseca Da Silva ◽  
Pedro Fernandes de Souza Neto ◽  
Silvania Donato da Silva ◽  
Maria José da Silva Lima ◽  
Iara Bezerra da Silva Cavalcante ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
The State ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Eastern Region ◽  
Equatorial Pacific Ocean ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data

Anomalies of sea surface temperature that occur in some regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being studied because their cause different impacts and originate in different ways, are the ENOS, Modoki and Canonical. The objective of this work is to identify the climatic causes of the extreme events that occurred in the macro-regions of Alagoas, and at the same time, to compare the effects of ENOS Canonical and Modoki and their classes on the macro-regions of Alagoas. The daily precipitation data for 21 municipalities in the State of Alagoas were obtained through the National Water Agency from 1963 to 2014. EN Modoki and low promoted an increase in rainfall in the Eastern region. EN Fortes, on the other hand, caused a decrease in rainfall in the Sertão. Canonical LN events caused a significant increase in rainfall in the three macro-regions, but the effect was better in LN Forte. During the phases of the Atlantic Dipole, the negative phase generated positive SPI across the state, and in the positive phase, there was a decrease in SPI in the East, and a negative SPI record in Sertão and Agreste. The climatic causes of the extreme events were the combination of semiannual, interannual scales, scale between 1-2 years of ENOS, scale of ENOS extended and scale of 11 years (Dipole and sunspots), potentiating the local total rainfall, and for cases of drought , your absence. It was found, through cluster analysis, similarity between the SPIs of La Niña low and La Niña Canonical, and between El Niño Canonical is linked to El Niño Forte. Mathematically, the categories of El Niño and La Niña strong and weak showed better correlations with ENOS Modoki and Canonical, suggesting a pattern for Alagoas.

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