scholarly journals Foot and mouth disease epidemic disposal measures – assessment and monitoring of possible risks to public health

2001 ◽  
Vol 5 (23) ◽  
Author(s):  
R Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Assessment And Monitoring

scholarly journals Forecasting incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease using BP neural networks in Jiangsu province, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wendong Liu ◽  
Changjun Bao ◽  
Yuping Zhou ◽  
Hong Ji ◽  
Ying Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Meteorological Factors ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Jiangsu Province ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Bp Model

Abstract Background Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a rising public health problem and has attracted considerable attention worldwide. The purpose of this study was to develop an optimal model with meteorological factors to predict the epidemic of HFMD. Methods Two types of methods, back propagation neural networks (BP) and auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), were employed to develop forecasting models, based on the monthly HFMD incidences and meteorological factors during 2009–2016 in Jiangsu province, China. Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were employed to select model and evaluate the performance of the models. Results Four models were constructed. The multivariate BP model was constructed using the HFMD incidences lagged from 1 to 4 months, mean temperature, rainfall and their one order lagged terms as inputs. The other BP model was fitted just using the lagged HFMD incidences as inputs. The univariate ARIMA model was specified as ARIMA (1,0,1)(1,1,0)12 (AIC = 1132.12, BIC = 1440.43). And the multivariate ARIMAX with one order lagged temperature as external predictor was fitted based on this ARIMA model (AIC = 1132.37, BIC = 1142.76). The multivariate BP model performed the best in both model fitting stage and prospective forecasting stage, with a MAPE no more than 20%. The performance of the multivariate ARIMAX model was similar to that of the univariate ARIMA model. Both performed much worse than the two BP models, with a high MAPE near to 40%. Conclusion The multivariate BP model effectively integrated the autocorrelation of the HFMD incidence series. Meanwhile, it also comprehensively combined the climatic variables and their hysteresis effects. The introduction of the climate terms significantly improved the prediction accuracy of the BP model. This model could be an ideal method to predict the epidemic level of HFMD, which is of great importance for the public health authorities.

Hand-foot-and-mouth disease and weather factors in Guangzhou, southern China

2013 ◽  
Vol 142 (8) ◽  
pp. 1741-1750 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. LI ◽  
Z. YANG ◽  
B. DI ◽  
M. WANG
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
High Morbidity ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Foot And Mouth

SUMMARYHand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, we aimed to examine the effect of weather patterns on the incidence of HFMD in the subtropical city of Guangzhou for the period 2009–2012, and assist public health prevention and control measures. A negative binomial multivariable regression was used to identify the relationship between meteorological variables and HFMD. During the study period, a total of 166 770 HFMD-confirmed cases were reported, of which 11 died, yielding a fatality rate of 0·66/10 000. Annual incidence rates from 2009 to 2012 were 132·44, 311·40, 402·76, and 468·59/1 000 00 respectively. Each 1°C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9·38% (95% CI 8·17–10·51) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 6·80% (95% CI −6·99 to −6·65), having an opposite effect. Similarly, a 1% rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 0·67% or 0·51%, a 1 m/h rise in wind velocity corresponded to an increase of 4·01% or 2·65%, and a 1 day addition in the number of windy days corresponded to an increase of 24·73% or 25·87%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. Our findings revealed that the epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on occurrence and transmission of HFMD.

EFFECTS OF PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTIONS IN REDUCING TRANSMISSION OF HAND, FOOT, AND MOUTH DISEASE

2011 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 432-435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmond Ma ◽  
Simon Wong ◽  
Christine Wong ◽  
Shuk Kwan Chuang ◽  
Thomas Tsang
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
Foot And Mouth

scholarly journals Isolating Asian enterovirus 71 subgenogroup C4 in two Austrian clinical samples from 2004

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (28) ◽  
Author(s):  
H. P. Huemer ◽  
B Ortner ◽  
C-W Huang ◽  
D Schmid ◽  
I Mutz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Pulmonary Oedema ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Enterovirus 71 ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Neurological Complications ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Enterovirus Type

Hamaguchi et al. recently reported on the on the occurrence of enterovirus type 71 (EV71) subgenogroup C4 in Japan [1]. According to the authors, this strain may have emerged in mainland China and in Taiwan. EV71 subgenogroup C4 has recently gained public health interest following reports of an ongoing outbreak in China and Vietnam in 2008: In June 2008, more than 176,000 cases of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) were reported in China alone, and at least 24 deaths have been attributed to EV71 [2,3]. In the largest and most severe EV71-associated HFMD outbreak in Taiwan in 1998, 405 children had severe neurological complications and/or pulmonary oedema; 78 children died [4].

scholarly journals Economic Burden Attributed to Children Presenting to Hospitals With Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Nguyen Thanh Nhan ◽  
Hugo C Turner ◽  
Truong Huu Khanh ◽  
Nguyen Thanh Hung ◽  
Le Bich Lien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Economic Burden ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Medical Costs ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Ho Chi Minh City ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Direct Medical Costs ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Abstract Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major public health concern in the Asia-Pacific region. Knowledge of its economic burden is essential for policy makers in prioritizing the development and implementation of interventions. Methods A multi-hospital-based study was prospectively conducted at 3 major hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, during 2016–2017. Data on direct and productivity costs were collected alongside clinical information and samples and demographic information from study participants. Results A total of 466 patients were enrolled. Two hundred three of 466 (43.6%) patients lived in Ho Chi Minh City, and 72/466 (15.5%) had severe HFMD. An enterovirus was identified in 74% of 466 patients, with EV-A71, CV-A6, CV-A10, and CV-A16 being the most common viruses identified (236/466, 50.6%). The mean economic burden per case was estimated at US$400.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], $353.80–$448.90), of which the total direct (medical) costs accounted for 69.7%. There were considerable differences in direct medical costs between groups of patients with different clinical severities and pathogens (ie, EV-A71 vs non-EV-A71). In Vietnam, during 2016–2017, the economic burden posed by HFMD was US$90 761 749 (95% CI, $79 033 973–$103 009 756). Conclusions Our findings are of public health significance because for the first time we demonstrate that HFMD causes a substantial economic burden in Vietnam, and although multivalent vaccines are required to control HFMD, effective EV-A71 vaccine could substantially reduce the burden posed by severe HFMD. The results will be helpful for health policy makers in prioritizing resources for the development and implementation of intervention strategies to reduce the burden of HFMD.

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