scholarly journals Robust Reliability Assessment of Water Reservoir Under Uncertainty of Climate Change

10.29007/s5s1 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Marton ◽  
Kateřina Knoppová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Reliability Assessment ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Reservoir Modeling ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty ◽  
Reservoir Simulation Model

The aim of this paper is to introduce method of the robust reservoir performance evaluation under the climate change uncertainty. Water resources adaptation on climate change, drought management strategies as well as hydrological and reservoir modeling in the climate change uncertainty have been serious issues. Newly developed lumped water balance model and reservoir simulation model will be used. Based on these tools the approach of robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will be introduced. The hydrological data under climate change will be constructed using the statistical downscaling tool LARS WG. Ensemble of 29 climate scenarios will be created. The hydrology analysis and the temporal reliability of reservoir storage capacity and its robustness assessment against the climate change uncertainty will be presented on the case study of the Vir I reservoir and Svratka river basin in the Czech Republic.

scholarly journals Developing hydrological and reservoir models under deep uncertainty of climate change: robustness of water supply reservoir

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 2222-2230
Author(s):  
Daniel Marton ◽  
Kateřina Knoppová
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Reservoir Performance ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty

Abstract Adaptation of water resources to climate change, drought management strategies, and hydrological and reservoir modelling have become serious issues in the context of climate change uncertainty. The aim of this paper is to introduce methods and tools for hydrological analysis and robust reservoir performance evaluation in this time of deep uncertainty. Newly developed lumped water balance and reservoir simulation models will be used to perform hydrological analysis, and a robust reservoir storage capacity reliability assessment will also be conducted. The hydrological data in relation to climate change will be constructed using two climatological datasets created by statistical downscaling tools LARS WG and ENSEMBLE Downscaling Portal. The hydrological analysis and the temporal reliability of the assessment of reservoir storage capacity and robustness in the context of climate change uncertainty will be presented as a case study of the Vir I reservoir and the Svratka River basin in the Czech Republic, in central Europe. The resulting models show a decrease in long-term mean flow, ranging from 6% to 32%, and in reservoir outflow from 1.5% to 26%, depending on the timescale, downscaling tools and emission scenarios.

Spatial variability and changes in storage-discharge relationships of crystalline catchments: implications for resilience and water resources management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronan Abhervé ◽  
Clément Roques ◽  
Laurent Longuevergne ◽  
Stéphane Louaisil ◽  
Jean-Raynald de Dreuzy ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Aquifer Storage ◽  
Water Resources Availability ◽  
Societal Needs

<p>While it is well understood and accepted that climate change and growing water needs affect the availability of water resources, the identification of the main physical processes involved remains challenging. It notably requires to filter interannual to interdecadal fluctuations and extreme events to isolate the underlying trends. Metropolitan areas are specifically subject to growing pressures because of the significant and increasing demand, combined with the strong anthropization of land uses.</p><p>The Meu-Chèze-Canut catchment supplies the city of Rennes with drinking water (680 km² - 500 000 users, Brittany, France). In this field laboratory, we explore the dynamics of the water cycle and water resources availability. In this context, water supply is mostly coming from reservoir storage for which levels shows a medium-term vulnerability in response to frequent relatively dry years. Based on retrospective data analysis, we describe the relationship between climatic forcing (precipitation, temperature) and water availability (aquifer storage, river discharge and reservoir storage) in different parts of the catchment that are characterized by distinct lithological and topographical settings. We then evaluate the resilience of both surface and groundwater resources, their past evolution and their resilience to climate change and increasing societal needs.</p><p>Water resources availability in these catchments relies on two geological formations with distinct hydrodynamics properties: the Armorican sandstone and Brioverian schist. To assess the resilience of the system, we specifically analyzed the relationships between monthly effective precipitation and stream discharge within nine sub-catchments over the past 30 years. We observe annual hysteresis relationships - that is, a time lag between precipitation and discharge highlighting the capacity of the landscape to temporarily store water - with significant variability in shapes across the catchments. We argue that topographic and lithological factors play key roles in controlling this variability through their impacts on subsurface storage capacity and characteristic drainage timescales. We propose perspectives based on the complementary use of calibrated groundwater models to leverage these results and provide adaptive water management strategies.</p>

scholarly journals On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 397-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanh Duc Dang ◽  
A. F. M. Kamal Chowdhury ◽  
Stefano Galelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Water Reservoirs ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. During the past decades, the increased impact of anthropogenic interventions on river basins has prompted hydrologists to develop various approaches for representing human–water interactions in large-scale hydrological and land surface models. The simulation of water reservoir storage and operations has received particular attention, owing to the ubiquitous presence of dams. Yet, little is known about (1) the effect of the representation of water reservoirs on the parameterization of hydrological models, and, therefore, (2) the risks associated with potential flaws in the calibration process. To fill in this gap, we contribute a computational framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, which we use to calibrate VIC's parameters. An important feature of our framework is a novel variant of VIC's routing model that allows us to simulate the storage dynamics of water reservoirs. Using the upper Mekong river basin as a case study, we calibrate two instances of VIC – with and without reservoirs. We show that both model instances have the same accuracy in reproducing daily discharges (over the period 1996–2005), a result attained by the model without reservoirs by adopting a parameterization that compensates for the absence of these infrastructures. The first implication of this flawed parameter estimation stands in a poor representation of key hydrological processes, such as surface runoff, infiltration, and baseflow. To further demonstrate the risks associated with the use of such a model, we carry out a climate change impact assessment (for the period 2050–2060), for which we use precipitation and temperature data retrieved from five global circulation models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Results show that the two model instances (with and without reservoirs) provide different projections of the minimum, maximum, and average monthly discharges. These results are consistent across both RCPs. Overall, our study reinforces the message about the correct representation of human–water interactions in large-scale hydrological models.

scholarly journals On the representation of water reservoir storage and operations in large-scale hydrological models: implications on model parameterization and climate change impact assessments

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thanh Duc Dang ◽  
AFM Kamal Chowdhury ◽  
Stefano Galelli
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Reservoir ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Water Reservoirs ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. During the past decades, the increased impact of anthropogenic interventions on river basins has prompted hydrologists to develop various approaches for representing human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological and land surface models. The simulation of water reservoir storage and operations has received particular attention, owing to the ubiquitous presence of dams. Yet, little is known about (1) the effect of the representation of water reservoirs on the parameterization of hydrological models, and, therefore, (2) the risks associated to potential flaws in the calibration process. To fill in this gap, we contribute a computational framework based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and a Multi-Objective Evolutionary Algorithm, which we use to calibrate VIC's parameters. An important feature of our framework is a novel variant of VIC's routing module that allows us to simulate the storage dynamics of water reservoirs. Using the upper Mekong river basin as a case study, we calibrate two instances of VIC – with and without reservoirs. We show that both model instances have the same accuracy in reproducing daily discharges (over the period 1996–2005); a result attained by the model without reservoirs by adopting a parameterization that compensates for the absence of these infrastructures. The first implication of this flawed parameter estimation stands in a poor representation of key hydrological processes, such as surface runoff, infiltration, and baseflow. To further demonstrate the risks associated to the use of such model, we carry out a climate change impact assessment (for the period 2050–2060), for which we use precipitation and temperature data retrieved from five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Results show that the two model instances (with and without reservoirs) provide different projections of the minimum, maximum, and average monthly discharges. These results are consistent across both RCPs. Overall, our study reinforces the message about the correct representation of human-water interactions in large-scale hydrological models.

scholarly journals Exploring the Role of Reservoir Storage in Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in Southern Europe

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 85
Author(s):  
Alfredo Granados ◽  
Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽  
Bolívar Paredes-Beltrán ◽  
Luis Garrote
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Storage Capacity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Southern Europe ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Recent trends suggest that streamflow discharge is diminishing in many rivers of Southern Europe and that interannual variability is increasing. This threatens to aggravate water scarcity problems that periodically arise in this region, because both effects will deteriorate the performance of reservoirs, decreasing their reliable yield. Reservoir storage is the key infrastructure to overcome variability and to enhance water availability in semiarid climates. This paper presents an analysis of the role of reservoir storage in preserving water availability under climate change scenarios. The study is focused on 16 major Southern European basins. Potential water availability was calculated in these basins under current condition and for 35 different climatic projections for the period 2070–2100. The results show that the expected reduction of water availability is comparable to the decrease of the mean annual flow in basins with large storage capacity. For basins with small storage, the expected reduction of water availability is larger than the reduction of mean annual flow. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by replicating the analysis assuming variable reservoir volumes from 25% to 175% of current storage. The results show that increasing storage capacity attenuates the reduction of water availability and reduces its uncertainty under climate change projections. This feature would allow water managers to develop suitable policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus enhancing the resilience of the system.

Climate Change Uncertainty and the Classification of 226 Local Entities in Korea

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (222) ◽  
pp. 507-520
Author(s):  
Jaewan Kim ◽  
Tae Yong Jung ◽  
Chan Park ◽  
Jongwoo Moon ◽  
Dahyun Kang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty
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