scholarly journals UNEMPLOYMENT AND VIOLENCE: ARDL ENDOGENEITY APPROACH

2018 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Adenuga Fabian Adekoya ◽  
Nor Azam Abdul-Razak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
The Unemployed ◽  
Bound Test

This study examines the link between unemployment and violence by controlling for income and security expenditure as an antidote to reduce violence in Nigeria. Violence claims many lives and properties in the country, which further increased the demand for public security as tax on the nation’s resources. Also, the increased unemployment in Nigeria, deserving urgent attention to be reduced, as literature has pointed out, causes idleness, deception, frustration and anger. The idea of criminal motivation and strain as an inducement to violence are supported by evidence. Considering the nature of the variables in this study, we tested for endogeneity by using annual data set from 1980 to 2015 before proceeding to test for the long-run and short-run relationship. The Bound Test used to test the cointegration while the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) approach was used to conduct endogeneity test. ARDL Instrumental Variable is also employed to determine long-run and short-run estimates. The results showed that unemployment causes violence while income as a variable to economic growth reduces violence at the 1% level of significance. Similarly, the deterrence variable of security expenditure adversely affects violence at the 10% level of significance. Therefore, this study suggests policy to promote economic growth as the means of income-employment generation among the youth and the unemployed. Youth programs should be provided especially among the unemployed by granting credit facilities to finance their own projects and further strengthen the deterrence institutions. RESUMEN Este estudio examina el vínculo entre el desempleo y la violencia mediante el control de los ingresos y el gasto de seguridad, como un antídoto para reducir la violencia en Nigeria. La violencia se cobra muchas vidas y propiedades en el país, lo que aumenta aún más la demanda de seguridad pública, traducida como un impuesto a los recursos de la nación. Además, el aumento del desempleo en Nigeria, la cual merece una atención urgente que se reduzca ya que, la literatura señala, provoca ociosidad, engaño, frustración e ira. La idea de la motivación y la tensión delictiva como un incentivo a la violencia está respaldada por la evidencia. Teniendo en cuenta la naturaleza de las variables en este estudio, probamos la endogeneidad mediante el uso de datos anuales de 1980 a 2015, antes de proceder a la prueba de la relación de largo y corto plazo. El Bound Test se usó para probar la cointegración, mientras que el enfoque del Modelo de retardo distribuido autorregresivo (ARDL), se usó para realizar pruebas de endogeneidad. La variable instrumental de ARDL también se emplea para determinar estimaciones a largo y corto plazo. Los resultados mostraron que el desempleo causa violencia; mientras que el ingreso, como variable del crecimiento económico, reduce la violencia, al nivel de significancia del 1%. De manera similar, la variable de disuasión del gasto en seguridad afecta adversamente la violencia, al nivel de significancia del 10%. Por lo tanto, este estudio sugiere una política para promover el crecimiento económico como el medio de generación de empleo-empleo entre los jóvenes y los desempleados. El empoderamiento de la juventud debe proporcionarse especialmente entre los desempleados mediante la concesión de servicios de crédito para financiar proyectos propios y fortalecer aún más las instituciones de disuasión.

scholarly journals Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration: A Re-examination of FDI and Growth in Vietnam

2013 ◽  
Vol 218 ◽  
pp. 94-113
Author(s):  
ANH PHẠM THẾ ◽  
ĐÀO NGUYỄN THỊ HỒNG
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study examines the econometric and empirical evidence of both causal and long-run relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in Vietnam, covering a time span of 21 years from 1991 to 2012. The recent and robust methodology of bounds testing or autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) approach to Cointegration is employed for the empirical analysis. This technique can capture both short-run and long-run dynamics of variables, particularly in small sample size cases. The findings indicate the existence of a Cointegration relationship between the two time series and a modest adjustment process from short-run to long-run equilibrium. Further results from Granger causality tests conducted within the error correction model confirm a bi-directional causality between economic growth and FDI over the study period.

scholarly journals DO INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES FOSTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA?

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath ◽  
Danny Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Ict Development

This paper investigates, using annual data from 1980 to 2014, whether adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) fosters economic growth in Indonesia. We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique on an augmented neoclassical growth model. The empirical results indicate a positive effect of ICT development on economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. The other regressors, such as total factor productivity, human capital, and capital per worker, also positively affect economic growth. From a policy perspective, the Indonesian government should promote ICT development through greater investment.

scholarly journals The relationship between foreign direct investment, financial development and growth economic in Next-11 Countries: a PMG/ARDL estimation

Management ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 28-50
Author(s):  
Bilal Louail ◽  
Mohamed Salah Zouita
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Summary This study investigates the relationship between FDI, economic growth and financial development in the Next 11 countries. An analysis of the results was performed accordingly on the panel data gathered from the Next 11 countries from 1985 to 2019— using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model approach (ARDL). The results indicate an impact of both economic growth and financial development on the FDI flows to the study of countries during the period between 1985 and 2019 in the long run, while no such proof is affirmed in the short run. This study’s contribution provides a better understanding of the dynamic relationship between FDI, economic growth, and financial development by providing decision-makers to understand the nature of the dynamic association between the study variables. This study provides empirical evidence about the association between inflows of FDI, economic growth and financial development within the context of the Next-11 countries. The previous literature lacks empirical study on the relationship between variables of study for the Next-11 countries.

scholarly journals Public Debt and Economic Growth in Niger: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 56-65
Author(s):  
Issoufou Oumarou
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose: The aim of the paper is to examine the existence or not of a long run or a short run relationship between public debt and economic in Niger and investigate the significance of this relationship. Approach/Methodology/Design: The study first applied time series econometrics tests such as Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Bound cointegration test and Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) on annual data obtained from the International monetary fund (IMF) and the West African States Central Bank (BCEAO). The observations cover the period from 1970 to 2019. The study then performed some residual tests including serial correlation, normality and heteroskedasticity for the accuracy of the prediction of the model. Findings: The empirical results showed no long run relationship between public debt and economic growth in Niger. The short run analysis revealed that public debt and budget balance have short run causal effects on economic growth in Niger. The coefficients are significant at 10% significance level. Practical Implications: This article gives valuable information to Niger policy makers regarding the effects of public debt on Niger economic growth. The article highlights the effects that public debt has on economic growth in Niger in the short and long run. Therefore helping policy makers decide whether to increase or reduce the borrowing trend. Originality/value: The results of the paper give valuable information on the relationship that public debt may have with economic growth in Sub Saharan African countries with the similar macroeconomic indicators with Niger.

Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan

2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalil Jebran ◽  
Amjad Iqbal ◽  
Zia Ur Rehman Rao ◽  
Arshad Ali
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This paper analyzes the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of Pakistan considering annual time series data from 1980 to 2013. This study opted autoregressive distributed lag model for purpose of analyzing short- and long-run relationship. The results reveal significant negative long-run and short-run effects of terms of trade on economic growth. The analyses also indicate significant positive long-run and short-run effects of labour on economic growth. Further, capital stock is influencing positively the economic growth in long run only. We suggest that economic policies may be implemented to deteriorate terms of trade which will further enhance the economic growth of Pakistan. JEL: F13, F43

Transport Infrastructure and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia an ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-112
Author(s):  
Radhia Amairia ◽  
Bouzid Amaira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Transport Infrastructure ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model

The achievement of an effective infrastructure, reliable and fair, is essential for economic growth. Indeed, the transport infrastructure is essential to the prosperity of regions. To investigate the relationship between transport infrastructure and economic growth, we use the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL), we find that transport infrastructure is cointegrated with economic performance, indicating the affirmed presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among them. We use annual data for the period from 1980 to 2013. The study found that the transport infrastructure and investment in transport infrastructure in Tunisia have a significant positive contribution to growth, which shows that each impact is strong and statistically significant. The Tunisian experience suggests that it is necessary to design an economic policy that will improve the transport infrastructure and to increase investment made to the sector for sustainable economic growth in Tunisia. It is necessary to improve the existing road and rail networks. JEL Classification: F63, L91, R41

Financial development and economic growth: empirical evidence from India

2015 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 340-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A K Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in India using annual data from 1982 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach – The stationarity properties are checked by ADF, DF-GLS, KPSS and Ng–Perron unit root tests. The long- and short-run dynamics are examined by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration. Findings – The co-integration test confirms a long-run relationship in financial development and economic growth for India. The analysis of ARDL test results reveals that both bank-based and market-based indicators of financial development have a positive impact on economic growth in India. Hence, the results support the supply-leading hypothesis and highlight the importance of financial development in economic growth. The findings also indicate that the Indian bank-centric financial sector has the potential for economic growth through credit transmission. Research limitations/implications – The present study recommends appropriate reforms in financial markets to attain sustainable economic growth. The findings are useful for policy-makers who want to maintain a parallel expansion of financial development and growth. Originality/value – To date, there are hardly any studies that use both market-based and bank-based indicators as proxies of financial development and analyze their role in economic growth in India. So, the contribution of the paper is to fill this gap in literature.

scholarly journals Inflationary Effect on Nigeria Economic Growth: The ARDL Bound Test Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 25-36
Author(s):  
B. U. K. Farouk ◽  
I. J. David ◽  
N. S. Agog
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Sampled Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Stable Estimation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

The expectation of any country is to experience a high output but in the presence of increasing inflation such expectation becomes blurring because high inflation is a sign of a low working economic system. In this research the impact of inflation rate (InfR) on Nigeria economic growth (EcoG) is studied for the period of 1986 to 2018 using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test approach to determine the co-integration existence between InfR and EcoG and determine the long run effect through the approach of Error Correction Model (ECM). The results obtained showed that an ARDL (2, 2) model was the best fitted model for the sampled data based on the smallest Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value obtained. Also, it was found that InfR significantly impacted on Nigeria EcoG negatively on the long and short run dynamics with a stable estimation as portrayed by the CUSUM square chart.

scholarly journals Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 209-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Gómez-Puig ◽  
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This paper empirically investigates the short and the long run impact of public debt on economic growth. We use annual data from both the central and the peripheral countries of the euro area (EA) for the 1961–2013 period and estimate a production function augmented with a debt stock term by applying the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. Our results suggest different patterns across the EA countries and tend to support the view that public debt always has a negative impact on the long-run performance of EA member states, whilst its short-run effect may be positive depending on the country.

scholarly journals A Cointegration Analysis of Economic Growth and CO_2 Emissions: A Case Study of Malaysia.

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ejiro U. Osiobe
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run

The paper aims to establish a long-run and the Granger causal relationship between economic growth,  emissions, international trade, energy consumption, and population density in Malaysia. The study will use annual data from 1970 to 2014. A unique cointegrating relationship between our variables  was identified. The study employed the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag  model to examine the Environmental Kuznets Curve . Our empirical results analysis showed a long-run relationship between per capita  emissions  and our explanatory variables . To investigate the Granger causal relationship between , the Vector Error Correction Model  was employed and our results, associated the absence of Granger causality between  emissions and economic growth  in the short-run while revealing a uni-directional Granger causality movement  from economic growth to  emissions in the long-run. Hence, an increase in  will lead to a rise in  emissions in Malaysia.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document