scholarly journals ANALISIS SPASIAL PENGARUH KEJADIAN EL NINO KUAT TAHUN 2015 DAN LA NINA LEMAH TAHUN 2016 TERHADAP KELEMBAPAN, ANGIN DAN CURAH HUJAN DI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 33 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibnu Athoillah ◽  
Rini Mariana Sibarani ◽  
Deassy Eirene Doloksaribu
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Meridional Winds ◽  
The Impact

IntisariKejadian El Nino Kuat tahun 2015 dan La Nina Lemah tahun 2016 sangat berpengaruh terhadap beberapa parameter cuaca di Indonesia seperti kelembapan udara, angin dan curah hujan. Dilihat dari kelembapan udara pada saat El Nino, kelembapan udara memiliki anomali negatif dan pada saat La Nina cenderung anomali positif. Dari pengaruhnya terhadap angin, saat El Nino angin zonal lebih dominan angin timuran, dan angin meridional lebih dominan angin selatan yang menyebabkan berkurangnya suplai uap air di Indonesia. Sedangkan saat La Nina, angin zonal lebih dominan baratan dan angin meridional lebih dominan dari utara. Pengaruh yang jelas terlihat dari adanya fenomena El Nino dan La Nina adalah kejadian hujan di wilayah Indonesia. Pola spasial kejadian hujan di wilayah Indonesia pada tahun 2015 dan tahun 2016 memperlihatkan pengaruh dari fenomena El Nino dan La Nina yang telah terjadi. Data hujan yang digunakan dalam tulisan ini adalah data observasi per 1 jam dari satelit TRMM pada tahun 2015, 2016 dan data historis dari tahun 2001 - 2014. Dari hasil analisis spasial menunjukkan bahwa kejadian El Nino mulai terlihat dampaknya pada musim kering yaitu berupa penurunan curah hujan di bawah normalnya sekitar 50 – 300 mm/bulan terjadi pada bulan Agustus hingga Oktober 2015 terutama di wilayah Indonesia bagian Selatan sedangkan pada musim basah November 2015 – Maret 2016 tidak terlalu signifikan dampaknya. Kejadian La Nina terlihat dampaknya pada bulan September – Desember tahun 2016 dimana terlihat adanya penambahan curah hujan dibandingkan normalnya sekitar 50 – 400 mm/bulan. AbtractThe strong El Nino in 2015 and the weak La Nina in 2016 are very influential on weather in Indonesia. In this case will be seen the influence of them againts relative humidifty, wind, and rainfall. The relative humidity during El Nino tends to be a negative and when La Nina tends to be a positive anomaly. Impact to the wind during El Nino, zonal winds are dominant northern and meridional winds are dominant southern which leads to reduced supply of water vapor in Indonesia. While during La Nina, zonal winds are dominant western and meridional winds are dominant northern. The obvious influence of El Nino and La Nina are the occurrence of rainfall in Indonesia. Spatial pattern of rainfall events in Indonesia can show the effects of the El Nino and La Nina. Rainfall data used in this paper are the observation data from TRMM Satellite hourly from 2001 – 2016. Data were analyzed by monthly and seasonal analysis. From the result of spatial analysis shows the impact of El Nino began on dry season. That is decrease of rainfall below the normal around 50 – 300 mm/month occurs in August to October 2015, especially in southern Indonesia. while in wet season November 2015 – March 2016 the impact is not significant. The impact of La Nina is seen in September – December 2016, where there is an increase of rainfall above the normal around 50 – 400 mm/month. 

scholarly journals PERUBAHAN IKLIM DALAM KONTEKS SISTEM PRODUKSI DAN PENGEMBANGAN KOPI DI INDONESIA / Climate Change in the Contex of Production System and Coffee Development in Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 77 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Syakir ◽  
E. Surmaini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Rust Disease ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Strategic Role ◽  
The Impact

<p>Coffee is one of the Indonesian largest export commodities and has a strategic role in the economy of nearly two million farmers’ livelihood. The potency of Indonesia’s coffee export is quite high because of its preferred taste, however the trend of national coffee production is only 1-2% per year. On the other hand, the impacts of climate change also threaten the achievement of increased production targets. This paper reviews the impact climate change on coffee production and the adaptation strategies. The main coffee producing regions in Indonesia are Aceh, North Sumatera, South Sumatera, Lampung, Bengkulu, East Java and South Sulawesi Provinces. Most of these regions are vulnerable to climate change. The increasing of extreme climate events such as drought due to El Niño causes a decline in national coffee production to 10%. On the contrary, the longer wet season due to La Niña caused the decreased coffee production to 80%. Indirect impacts due to rising temperatures are increased incidence of coffee borer and leaf rust disease which can lead to a 50% decline on coffee production. Due to rising temperatures, the projected coffee production areas are projected to shift to higher elevations. Numerous adaptive technologies have been intoduced, however adaptive capacaity of farmers are still low. This condition is exacerbated by the limited access of most farmers to climate information, markets, technology, farming credits, and climate risk management information. To overcome the problem, policy makers, stakeholders and farmers have to accelerate the adaptation practices since the climate change has occurred and will continue to happen.</p><p>Keywords: Coffee, climate change, production, adaptation Top of Form</p><p> </p><p><strong>Abstrak</strong></p><p>Kopi merupakan salah satu komoditas ekspor yang berperan strategis dalam perekonomian hampir dua juta rumah petani di Indonesia. Potensi ekspor kopi Indonesia cukup tinggi karena cita rasanya yang disukai, namun tren peningkatan produksi kopi nasional hanya 1-2% per tahun. Di sisi lain, dampak perubahan iklim juga mengancam tercapainya target peningkatan produksi. Makalah ini merupakan tinjauan dampak perubahan iklim terhadap produksi kopi dan strategi adaptasinya di Indonesia. Daerah penghasil utama kopi seperti Aceh, Sumatera Utara, Sumatera Selatan, Lampung, Bengkulu, Jawa Timur dan Sulawesi Selatan rentan terhadap dampak perubahan iklim. Meningkatnya kejadian iklim ekstrim seperti kekeringan akibat El Niño mengakibatkan penurunan produksi kopi 10%. Sebaliknya, musim hujan yang panjang akibat La Niña menurunkan produksi kopi hingga 80%. Dampak tidak langsung perubahan iklim adalah meningkatnya serangan hama penggerek buah kopi dan penyakit karat daun yang menyebabkan penurunan produksi sekitar 50%. Akibat kenaikan suhu, sentra produksi kopi diproyeksikan akan berpindah ke wilayah dengan elevasi yang lebih tinggi. Berbagai teknologi adaptasi telah dihasilkan, namun tingkat adaptasi petani kopi umumnya masih rendah. Kondisi ini diperparah oleh terbatasnya akses sebagian besar petani terhadap informasi iklim, pasar, teknologi, kredit usaha tani, dan informasi pengelolaan risiko iklim. Untuk mengatasi masalah tersebut, pengambil kebijakan, stakeholder, dan petani harus mengakselerasi upaya adaptasi karena perubahan iklim telah terjadi dan akan terus berlangsung.</p><p>Kata kunci: Kopi, perubahan iklim, produksi, adaptasi</p>

The Impact of ENSO on Wave Breaking and Southern Annular Mode Events

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (9) ◽  
pp. 2854-2870 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tingting Gong ◽  
Steven B. Feldstein ◽  
Dehai Luo
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Wave Breaking ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Background Flow ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study examines the relationship between intraseasonal southern annular mode (SAM) events and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using daily 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The data coverage spans the years 1979–2002, for the austral spring and summer seasons. The focus of this study is on the question of why positive SAM events dominate during La Niña and negative SAM events during El Niño. A composite analysis is performed on the zonal-mean zonal wind, Eliassen–Palm fluxes, and two diagnostic variables: the meridional potential vorticity gradient, a zonal-mean quantity that is used to estimate the likelihood of wave breaking, and the wave breaking index (WBI), which is used to evaluate the strength of the wave breaking. The results of this investigation suggest that the background zonal-mean flow associated with La Niña (El Niño) is preconditioned for strong (weak) anticyclonic wave breaking on the equatorward side of the eddy-driven jet, the type of wave breaking that is found to drive positive (negative) SAM events. A probability density function analysis of the WBI, for both La Niña and El Niño, indicates that strong anticyclonic wave breaking takes place much more frequently during La Niña and weak anticyclonic wave breaking during El Niño. It is suggested that these wave breaking characteristics, and their dependency on the background flow, can explain the strong preference for SAM events of one phase during ENSO. The analysis also shows that austral spring SAM events that coincide with ENSO are preceded by strong stratospheric SAM anomalies and then are followed by a prolonged period of wave breaking that lasts for approximately 30 days. These findings suggest that the ENSO background flow also plays a role in the excitation of stratospheric SAM anomalies and that the presence of these stratospheric SAM anomalies in turn excites and then maintains the tropospheric SAM anomalies via a positive eddy feedback.

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals EL NINO, LA NINA, DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA, INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Arini Wahyu Utami ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari ◽  
Suhatmini Hardyastuti
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Paddy and maize are two important food crops in Indonesia and mainly produced in Java Island. This research aimed to know the impact of El Nino and La Nina on paddy and maize farmer’s supply in Java. Cross sectional data from four provinces in Java was combined with time series data during 1987-2006. Paddy supply was estimated using log model, while maize supply used autoregressive model; each was estimated using two types of regression function. First, it included dummy variable of El Nino and La Nina to know their influence into paddy and maize supply. Second, Southern Oscillation Index was used to analyze the supply changing when El Nino or La Nina occur. The result showed that El Nino and La Nina did not influence paddy supply, while La Nina influenced maize supply in Java. Maize supply increased when La Nina occurred.

scholarly journals Reexamining El Niño and Cholera in Peru: A Climate Affairs Approach

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Iván J. Ramírez ◽  
Sue C. Grady ◽  
Michael H. Glantz
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Elevated Temperatures ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Enso Cycle ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Cholera Epidemic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In the 1990s Peru experienced the first cholera epidemic after almost a century. The source of emergence was initially attributed to a cargo ship, but later there was evidence of an El Niño association. It was hypothesized that marine ecosystem changes associated with El Niño led to the propagation of V. cholerae along the coast of Peru, which in turn initiated the onset of the epidemic in 1991. Earlier studies supported this explanation by demonstrating a relationship between elevated temperatures and increased cholera incidence in Peru; however, other aspects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and their potential impacts on cholera were not investigated. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between El Niño and cholera in Peru from a holistic view of the ENSO cycle. A “climate affairs” approach is employed as a conceptual framework to incorporate ENSO’s multidimensional nature and to generate new hypotheses about the ENSO and cholera association in Peru. The findings reveal that ENSO may have been linked to the cholera epidemic through multiple pathways, including rainfall extremes, La Niña, and social vulnerability, with impacts depending on the geography of teleconnections within Peru. When the definition of an ENSO event is examined, cholera appears to have emerged either during ENSO neutral or La Niña conditions. Furthermore, the analysis herein suggests that the impact of El Niño arrived much later, possibly resulting in heightened transmission in the austral summer of 1992. In conclusion, a modified hypothesis with these new insights on cholera emergence and transmission in Peru is presented.

scholarly journals Incidencia de los eventos El Niño y La Niña en el comportamiento de glaciares tropicales en perú

2019 ◽  
pp. 21-27
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Glacier Surface ◽  
Cordillera Blanca ◽  
Box Counting ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Para Determinar ◽  
Normalized Difference Snow Index ◽  
The Impact

Incidencia de los eventos El Niño y La Niña en el comportamiento de glaciares tropicales en perú Incidence of events El Niño and La Niña in the behavior of tropical glaciers in peru Gilberto Medina y Abel Mejía Universidad Nacional Agraria de la Selva, Tingo María 156 Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina, Lima2 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33017/RevECIPeru2010.0016/ RESUMEN Los eventos El Niño y La Niña en el Océano pacífico tropical se dan de manera periódica y tienen una clara incidencia en el crecimiento y mantenimiento de la superficie glaciar de los nevados. Aplicando la técnica multifractal, el método de la caja de contar, la diferencia normalizada del índice de nieve NDSI y la relación de bandas de imágenes satelitales 3/5 se analizó el comportamiento de la superficie glaciar de dos nevados tropicales, el Huandoy y el pastoruri, en la Cordillera Blanca de perú, en años en que se presentaron los eventos El Niño y La Niña. Las modernas técnicas multifractales devinieron muy versátiles, prácticas y sensibles para mostrar la incidencia de los eventos El Niño y La Niña en el espectro multifractal y para estimar la superficie glaciar. El Huandoy y el pastoruri disminuyeron aproximadamente un 10% de su área glaciar en un periodo de 22 años. La estimación de la superficie glaciar por métodos convencionales y multifractales resultó no significativa en un análisis como muestras relacionadas o pareadas, lo cual significa que es indistinto utilizar el SIG o multifractales para determinar el área glaciar. La dimensión D0 para la superficie glaciar fue de 1,8. Descriptores: el niño y la niña, cambio climático, retroceso glaciar, nDsi, relación de bandas 3/5, multifractales. ABSTRACT The events el niño and la niña in the tropical Pacific ocean occur periodically over time and have a clear incidence on growth and maintenance of the glacier surface of snow-capped mountains. The behaviour of the glacier surfaces of two snowy tropicals, the Pastoruri and the huandoy, located in the cordillera blanca of Perú were studied in the years when the events el niño and la niña occurred. This study was done applying a multifractal technique, the method of box counting, the normalized difference snow index nDsi and the relationship of bands of satellital images 3/5. multifractals modern techniques became very versatile, practical and sensitive in showing the impact of el niño and la niña in the multifractal spectral and for the estimation of glacier surface. The huandoy and Pastoruri decrease in average glacier surface was 10% in the last 22 years. The estimation of glacier surface for the conventional or multifractal methods was not significantly different in analysis such as related samples, which means that there is no distinction when using the siG or multifractals for determining the glacier area. The dimension D0 for the glacier surface was 1,8. Keywords: el niño and la niña, climate change, glacier retreat, nDsi, ratio of bands 3/5, multifractals.

Two Tropical Routes for the Remote Influence of the Northern Tropical Atlantic on the Indo−western Pacific Summer Climate

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-51
Author(s):  
Yuhei Takaya ◽  
Naoaki Saito ◽  
Ichiro Ishikawa ◽  
Shuhei Maeda
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Summer Climate ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Northern Tropical Atlantic

AbstractThis study investigates the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) in the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) on the Indo−western Pacific summer climate by analyzing record-high NTA SSTs summer in 2010. In that time, a decaying El Niño and developing La Niña were accompanied by widespread anomalous climate conditions in the Indo-western Pacific. These conditions are typical of summers that follow El Niño events and are often explained as being due to the influence of Indian Ocean warming induced by the El Niño. Meanwhile, the record high NTA SSTs that also resulted from the influence of the El Niño, the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation as well as the interdecadal-and-longer NTA SST variability, is one of possible causes of anomalous conditions in the Indo−western Pacific. The results of sensitivity experiments using a coupled atmosphere−ocean model clearly indicate that the high NTA SSTs had a considerable influence on the summer weather in the Indo−western Pacific via two tropical routes: an eastbound route that involved a reinforcement of the atmospheric equatorial Kelvin wave and a westbound route that involved altering the Walker circulation over the Atlantic−Pacific region. The altered Walker circulation facilitated the transition to La Niña, amplifying the impact on the western North Pacific monsoon. Further evaluation reveals that both the interannual and interdecadal-and-longer variability of the NTA SST contributed to the anomalous Indo−western Pacific summer. The results highlight the interannual to multidecadal predictability of the Indo−western Pacific summer climate that originates in the NTA.

scholarly journals Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities of the Central Indian Ocean Mode

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (16) ◽  
pp. 6505-6520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhou ◽  
Raghu Murtugudde ◽  
Dake Chen ◽  
Youmin Tang
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Barotropic Instability ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Central Indian Ocean ◽  
La Nina

The central Indian Ocean (CIO) mode, an intrinsic coupled mode, plays an important role in the intraseasonal variabilities over the Indian monsoon region. Besides the intraseasonal variabilities, the CIO mode also has pronounced seasonal and interannual variabilities. The CIO mode is active during boreal summer but suppressed during boreal winter. The seasonality is mainly attributable to the barotropic instability, which is caused by the large meridional shear of zonal winds. By decomposing the temporal tendency of the meridional gradient of zonal winds, it is found that the zonal wind shear mainly follows the variation of the horizontal eddy flux, which indicates the importance of the multiscale interaction in tropical dynamics. The interannual variability of the CIO mode also depends on the energy transfer associated with the barotropic instability. The influences of El Niño or La Niña and Indian Ocean dipole–zonal mode (IODZM) on the CIO mode are analyzed. El Niño and La Niña have moderate impacts on the CIO mode. El Niño weakens the CIO mode and La Niña strengthens it via the changes in the low-level zonal wind shear. IODZM does not significantly change the amplitude of the CIO mode but can shift its latitudinal position by modifying the meridional shear of the zonal winds. The low-frequency variabilities of the CIO mode at seasonal and interannual time scales unveil the impacts of the background circulations at the intraseasonal variabilities during the Indian summer monsoon in a multiscale framework. While the low-frequency variabilities of this mode will clearly have an implication for monsoon variability and prediction, further studies are needed to quantify the impacts.

Variations of Sea Level and Tidal Behaviour during El Nino/La Nina: An Example of Malaysian Coastline

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Hilmi Abdullah ◽  
Mohd Razali Mahmud ◽  
Nor Ainah Amat
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Northeast Monsoon ◽  
Tidal Variation ◽  
La Nina

The El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon indirectly provides dramatic changes to tidal that can cause floods, drought and affect various marine activities. Tidal observation data plays important role in determining the characteristic or behaviour of tide along the coastal area especially during sudden climate change such as the phenomenon of El Nino/La Nina, the Northeast Monsoon, Northwest Monsoon and Tsunami. It is important to study the occurrence of the ENSO event and it characteristic so that it can be used for prediction and monitoring the land and water ecosystem. This research is to identify the variations of sea level and tidal behaviour in Malaysian coastline during El Nino/La Nina. The tidal observation data, meteorology data (temperature and mean sea level pressure), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) calculation are used to look on the changes of the tidal variation during the ENSO phenomenon. The results of this research will specially benefit in the determination of tidal level in Malaysia and to the professionals who have responsibilities in policy making, agriculture, environmental planning, economics and marine engineering.

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