scholarly journals Investment, Poverty and Growth Nexus in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from ARDL Modeling Approach to Co-Integration

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Imran Sharif
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Modeling Approach ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

This study analyzes the nexus of investment, poverty and growth in Pakistan. It will develop comprehensive macro economic model of Pakistan economy with the desire of amplification and provided that a long-term result for the determined investment-poverty-growth discrepancy veterans. The significant level of investment and sustained economic growth may be the major driving forces for poverty decrease in Pakistan. The level of investment also assists the poor through a direct allocation influence as well as tortuous growth effect, in both the long run and short run. To detect the long term and short term effects of economic development, poverty and investment, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is functional, which is the suitable technique  in excess of method of integration after examining the stationary level of the data through ADF Test. The bound testing approach is exploited for cointegration to analyze the presence of long term association amid variables and ECM models are verbalized for short term analysis. The model is predictable with time-series data from 1972 to 2013 confine mutually the long-run and short-run forceful goods of the economy. The model is subjected to a sequence of strategy situation  that assesses a mixture of options for government to recover the prolific ability of the economy, thus attain continued hasten growth and a decrease in  Pakistan`s poverty. JEL Classification Codes: G12, G 14

Does Public Debt Service Expenditure Crowd-Out Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from an African Developing Country

2019 ◽  
Vol 64 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-38
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Debt Service ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the impact of public debt service on economic growth; and it provides an evidence-based approach to public policy formulation in Zimbabwe. The empirical analysis was performed by applying the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to annual time-series data from 1970 to 2017. The study findings reveal that the impact of public debt service on economic growth in Zimbabwe is negative in the short run but positive in the long run. The results are suggestive of the existence of a crowding-out effect of public debt service in Zimbabwe in the short run and a crowding-in effect in the long run. In view of these findings, the government should consider fiscal and financial policies that promote a constant supply of long-term finance, long-term fixed investments, and extension of a government securities maturity structure so as to ensure sustainable short- and long-term public debt service expenditures. The study further recommends the strengthening of non-distortionary revenue mobilisation reforms to reduce market distortions and boost domestic investment.

scholarly journals Integration of Indonesian Coffee Markets with World Coffee Markets

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Haposan Orlando Napitupulu ◽  
Ana Arifatus Sa'diyah ◽  
Farah Mutiara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Dynamic Equilibrium ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robusta Coffee ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Coffee Markets

This study aims to analyze the integration of the Arabica and Robusta coffee markets in Indonesia with world coffee prices. The study uses secondary data in the form of annual time series data during the period 1985 - 2015. The study uses the VECM analysis method. This method explains the relationship of long-term dynamic equilibrium and short-term equilibrium in a system of equations. The analysis shows that Indonesian and world Arabica coffee is not integrated in the long term or the short term. In Robusta coffee VECM estimation analysis shows that there is a significant value at the 10% level in a long-term relationship with a value of 0.08579, which means that there is a short-term relationship between world Robusta coffee prices and domestic Robusta coffee prices in the previous year, but no relationship in the long run.

scholarly journals Infrastructural Investments and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Ayub ◽  
Rabia Rasheed ◽  
Rashid Ahmad ◽  
Furrukh Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Water Projects ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

Purpose: The goal of this study is to make an attempt to find out the relationships between infrastructural investments and economic growth. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study employs time series data over the years from 1972 to 2020. To observe the long-run and short-run impact of infrastructural investments on economic growth, an ARDL modeling approach to co- integration is used that is most suitable technique over some other techniques of integration after inspecting the stationary level of data via ADF test. Findings: The findings of the study indicate that Investments on Railways, Roads, Gas Projects, Telecommunication, Water Projects and Power Projects appear as efficient factors for enhancing economic growth of Pakistan in the long run. Implications/Originality/Value: It is suggested that government should increase the public and private investment for development of Railways, Roads, Telecommunication and Water projects in Pakistan.

scholarly journals ANALISIS PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DAN COUNTRY RISK TERHADAP INVESTASI PORTOFOLIO ASING DI INDONESIA

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135
Author(s):  
Halifah Hadi ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Country Risk ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Stability

The reseach aims to explain the effect of country risk and variabels macroeconomics to the foreign portofolio invesment in Indonesia in short term and long term. The analysis takes time series time series data from 2006 quarter 1 through 2016 quarter 4by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The source of data are Badan Pusat Statistik, Bank Indonesia, FX Sauder and World Bank. The result are in the short term the exchange rate and economic growth effect the shock that will influence the foreign portofolio invesment. In the long trem the inflation, interst rate, money supply and country risk influence on foreign portofolio invesment significanly. The suggestion in this research is, the goverment sould keep the stability balance of payment in Indonesia .Any change, the condition of  balance of payments effect appreciation and depreciation to Rupiah. To increase the economic growth in Indonesia, goverment could increasing the fiscal income and PMDN realization that will  increase the enterprises productivity.

scholarly journals Integration of Indonesian coffee markets and world coffee markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Haposan Orlando Napitupulu ◽  
Ana Arifatus Sa’diyah ◽  
Farah Mutiara
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robusta Coffee ◽  
A Value ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Annual Time Series ◽  
Coffee Markets

This study aims to analyze the integration of the Arabica and Robusta coffee markets in Indonesia and world coffee prices. The study uses secondary data in the form of annual time series data from 1985-2015. The study uses the VECM analysis method. This method explains the relationship between long-term dynamic and short-term equilibrium in a system of equations. The analysis shows that Indonesian and world Arabica coffee did not integrate into the long term or the short term. In Robusta coffee, VECM estimation shows that there is the significant at the 10% level in a long-term relationship with a value of 0.086. It means that there is a short-term relationship between world Robusta coffee prices and domestic Robusta coffee prices in the previous year, but no relationship in the long run.

scholarly journals DETERMINANTS OF INDONESIA’S INCOME VELOCITY OF MONEY

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 323-342
Author(s):  
Susan Sunila Sharma ◽  
Ferry Syarifuddin
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Demand ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Perspective ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Velocity Of Money ◽  
Short Run

Using monthly time-series data and both short- and long-run models, our paper examines the determinants of Indonesia’s income velocity of money. Our findings strongly suggest that in the long-run, tax revenue, short-term interest rates, and industrial production, and in the short-run, money demand significantly determines income velocity of money. Our analysis suggests that the effect on income velocity is mostly over the long-run as most determinants are dormant in the short-run. The implication from a policy perspective is that shocks that are transitory are unlikely to burden income velocity.

scholarly journals Impact of shocks in domestic aggregate demand for natural gas on domestic aggregate energy consumption in China

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Manzoor Ahmad ◽  
Shehzad Khan ◽  
Kiran Alim
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Positive Component ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Nonlinear Autoregressive

This paper examines the possible asymmetric transmissions from domestic aggregate demand for natural gas to domestic aggregate energy consumption in China using time series data from 1970 to 2016. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is employed to check the possibility of long-term asymmetric nexus among variables. The empirical findings confirm the existence of symmetric cointegration between the domestic aggregate demand for natural gas and domestic aggregate energy consumption. The results also indicate that positive shocks in domestic aggregate energy consumption lead an increase in domestic aggregate energy consumption in both short-run and long-run. While the NARDL dynamic multiplier graph suggests that the positive component of domestic aggregate demand for natural gas has deep impact on domestic aggregate energy consumption.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL INDEX ON INDONESIAN SHARIA STOCK INDEX

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 60
Author(s):  
Shofal Iman ◽  
Imron Mawardi ◽  
Md Atiqur Rahman Sarker
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Significant Positive Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Global Stock

This study aims to determine the influence of long-term and short-term global stock index on the Indonesian Islamic stock index. The approach used is a quantitative approach and uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. ECM is an analytical model that can be used in time series data to estimate the effect of independent variables on long-term and short-term use variables. The sample used was taken from secondary data, namely global stock index data consisting of the DJIA, N225 and HSI indices, and the Indonesian sharia stock index in the form of the ISSI index in the period of January 2013 to December 2017, so that 60 samples were obtained. The test results show that in the long run, the DJIA and HSI indices have a significant positive effect on the ISSI index, while the N225 index has a significant negative effect on the ISSI index. In the short term, only the DJIA index has a significant positive effect on the ISSI index.

scholarly journals The Effect Of Inflation, Problem Finance, And Financing To Deposit Ratio (FDR) On Sharia Banking Deposits

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 125
Author(s):  
Nur Syamsiyah ◽  
Misfi Laili Rohmi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Public ◽  
Long Run

Islamic banks collect funds from the public and then send them for financing as an intermediary institution. In practice, the distribution of financing, which is the main characteristic of Islamic banks, is not as easy as the existing theory. This study will discuss the short-term and long-term effects of inflation, financing, and financing problems on deposit ratios in Indonesia's Islamic banking deposits. This study uses an Error Correction Model with monthly time series data starting from 2019-2020. The results show that all variables significantly affect deposits in Islamic banking in Indonesia in the long run. Meanwhile, in the short term, the inflation and financing variables significantly affect Islamic banking deposits in Indonesia, and the Financing to Deposit Ratio has no significant effect.

scholarly journals Multivariate Dynamic Co-integration and Causality Analysis between Inflation and its Determinants

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5(J)) ◽  
pp. 240-250
Author(s):  
Md. Sharif Hossain ◽  
Md. Thasinul Abedin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Value Addition ◽  
Speed Of Adjustment ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Adf Test

This paper investigates the impacts of money supply, government expenditure, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation of Bangladesh using time series data from 1978-2014. The ADF test results suggest that the variables are of I(1). It is found that there exist five co-integration equations. The outcome of the Granger Causality test suggests the short-run unidirectional causality running from industrial value addition to money supply, from inflation, money supply, velocity, industrial value addition and economic growth to government spending. Bidirectional causality has been found between economic growth and industrial value addition. Finally, short-run and long-run effects of money supply, government spending, velocity, industry value addition and economic growth on inflation are estimated. It is found that the speed of adjustment for short-run to approach to the long-run equilibrium level is significant at any significance level. It has been found that it will take about 1.25 years for a complete convergence process to approach its equilibrium. Therefore, in case of any shock to the inflation equation, the speed of adjustment is significantly faster. It has also been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity have positive significant effects while the economic growth has significant negative effect on inflation in Bangladesh economy. It has been found that the long-run effects of money supply and velocity are more than short-run effects meaning that over the time more money supply and velocity increase the more and more inflation in Bangladesh but economic growth decreases the inflation.

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