scholarly journals PRODUK EKSPOR PROSPEKTIF INDONESIA KE PERU DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU ALIRAN PERDAGANGANNYA KE KAWASAN AMERIKA SELATAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-176
Author(s):  
Dewi Setyawati ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Staple Fibre ◽  
Retail Sale ◽  
Brazil Nuts ◽  
Gutta Percha ◽  
Bilateral Trading ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Export Product

Peru in South America area has potential market for Indonesia’s products and has been established as prospective market. This study is aimed to analyze the performance of bilateral trading between Indonesia and Peru, to analyze the export products prospective for Indonesia-Peru bilateral trading and also the factors affecting its trade flow to South America. The analysis methods used in this research were Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Intra Industry Trade (IIT) and gravity model. Gravity model used panel data with modification sample cross section data of South America countries (Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chili, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) from 2000-2013 time series. The result showed that trade balance as indicator of performance in bilateral trading Indonesia-Peru have been increasing. Indonesia’s export product prospective to Peru are HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc), HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre, not put for retail sale), and HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Only HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) and HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts) have weak integration. The gravity model with Fixed Effect Model showed that different GDP per capita and trade/GDP have significant positive effect on value export of product prospective. Tariff have significant negative effect for HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) dan HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Economic distances have significant negative effect exclude HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc). Real exchange rate have significant possitive only for HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale), while the others product have not significant effect. Keywords : Indonesia-Peru-South America Trading, RCA, EPD, IIT, Gravity model

scholarly journals PRODUK EKSPOR PROSPEKTIF INDONESIA KE PERU DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR PENENTU ALIRAN PERDAGANGANNYA KE KAWASAN AMERIKA SELATAN

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-176
Author(s):  
Dewi Setyawati ◽  
Rina Oktaviani ◽  
Tanti Novianti
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Staple Fibre ◽  
Retail Sale ◽  
Brazil Nuts ◽  
Gutta Percha ◽  
Bilateral Trading ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Export Product

Peru in South America area has potential market for Indonesia’s products and has been established as prospective market. This study is aimed to analyze the performance of bilateral trading between Indonesia and Peru, to analyze the export products prospective for Indonesia-Peru bilateral trading and also the factors affecting its trade flow to South America. The analysis methods used in this research were Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA), Export Product Dynamic (EPD), Intra Industry Trade (IIT) and gravity model. Gravity model used panel data with modification sample cross section data of South America countries (Peru, Argentina, Brazil, Chili, Ecuador, Colombia, Paraguay, Suriname, Uruguay and Venezuela) from 2000-2013 time series. The result showed that trade balance as indicator of performance in bilateral trading Indonesia-Peru have been increasing. Indonesia’s export product prospective to Peru are HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc), HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre, not put for retail sale), and HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Only HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) and HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts) have weak integration. The gravity model with Fixed Effect Model showed that different GDP per capita and trade/GDP have significant positive effect on value export of product prospective. Tariff have significant negative effect for HS 0801 (Brazil nuts, cashew nuts & coconuts), HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale) dan HS 4420 (Wood marquetry & inlaid wood; caskets & cases or cutlery of wood). Economic distances have significant negative effect exclude HS 4001 (Natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha etc). Real exchange rate have significant possitive only for HS 5509 (Yarn of synth staple fibre,not put for retail sale), while the others product have not significant effect. Keywords : Indonesia-Peru-South America Trading, RCA, EPD, IIT, Gravity model

Softwood lumber trade and trade restrictions: gravity model.

2021 ◽  
pp. 142-173
Author(s):  
Xin-tong Li ◽  
Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh ◽  
G. Cornelisvan Kooten
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Trade Restrictions ◽  
Softwood Lumber ◽  
Trade Model ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Bilateral Trade Flows ◽  
Pseudo Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Gravity Trade Model

Abstract A gravity trade model can be used to determine the effects of policy on bilateral trade flows. The gravity model is initially explained and then used to determine the effect that U.S. tariffs have on softwood lumber (SWL) imports from Canada, using information from the 2006 Softwood Lumber Agreement. Quarterly data for seven Canadian and three U.S. regions for the period 2007-2017 are used to estimate a gravity model of SWL trade. The model is subsequently expanded to include Japan and China as separate regions, and then as a combined China-Japan region. The model is estimated using OLS and a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood method for trade quantity and value. Findings indicate that: (1) the imposition of a countervailing and/or anti-dumping duty usually has a negative effect on Canada's physical exports, but not in all cases; (2) the value of softwood lumber trade decreases by 26% on average under a tax/tariff compared with no duties; (3) the tax/tariff has a smaller but still significant impact on Canadian exports when China and Japan are included, as SWL exports are diverted from the U.S.; and, not surprisingly, (4) duties affect the value of lumber exports to a much greater extent than quantity.

Trends in tourism under economic uncertainty

2020 ◽  
pp. 135481662090960 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalid Khan ◽  
Chi-Wei Su ◽  
Yi-Dong Xiao ◽  
Haotian Zhu ◽  
Xiaoyan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Model ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Window Technique ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Negative Effect

We use the gravity model to examine the causal link between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and inbound tourism (ITM) in the United Kingdom. The results for the full sample demonstrate that EPU Granger causes ITM. This finding shows that association is misappropriated due to structural changes. We apply the time-varying rolling window technique to revisit the dynamic association between EPU and ITM. The findings for the subsamples indicate that EPU has a negative effect on ITM. In contrast, ITM has a positive effect on EPU in the subsamples. These results support the gravity model, which states that as EPU increases, the level of ITM decreases. The results have noteworthy implications for policymakers in the form of consistency in policies and short-term shock forecasting that is capable of greater shock-absorbing capacity to lessen the revocation of tourist programs. A stable exchange rate regime in the destination country will make tourism cheaper and more attractive to tourists. Decision-makers should consider time-varying attributes to establish tourism activities for effective and accurate predictions.

Statistical Lengths of Rubberlike Hydrocarbon Molecules

1943 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-485
Author(s):  
Frederick T. Wall
Keyword(s):  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Physical Properties ◽  
Chemical Properties ◽  
Hydrocarbon Chain ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Double Bonds ◽  
Gutta Percha ◽  
Cis And Trans ◽  
Trans Structure ◽  
And Chemical Properties

Abstract It has been known for some time that the pure hydrocarbons of balata (or gutta-percha) and natural rubber have the same chemical composition and chemical properties. Both balata and rubber appear to be polymers of isoprene, (C5H8)n, with the same degree of unsaturation. Their physical properties are sufficiently different, however, to make it clear that their structures must differ in some important respect. Since the molecules contain numerous double bonds, it has been suggested that rubber and balata are geometric isomers. Every fourth bond in a rubber or balata molecule is a double bond, so it follows that the possibilities for geometric isomerism are considerable. It was proposed by Meyer and Mark that natural rubber hydrocarbon has a structure for which the molecular chain is cis with respect to all of the double bonds. Balata (or gutta-percha) is then supposed to have a trans-structure throughout, this view having been verified by Fuller and Bunn. It is the purpose of the present paper to consider, from the point of view of recent theories of rubber elasticity, to what extent these structures explain the differences in physical properties. The method to be employed involves calculation of the root mean square lengths of the cis- and trans-structures, which, when compared to their maximum lengths, should give an indication of their extensibilities. In 1932 Eyring treated the problem of the average square length of a hydrocarbon chain. In the present paper a different derivation of Eyring's equation is given (for illustrative purposes), after which this derivation will be extended to the rubberlike molecules with double bonds.

Cis-Trans Isomerization in Natural Polyisoprenes

1960 ◽  
Vol 33 (2) ◽  
pp. 445-456 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. I. Cunneen
Keyword(s):  
Sulfur Dioxide ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Ultraviolet Light ◽  
Low Temperatures ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Trans Isomers ◽  
Gutta Percha ◽  
Trans Isomerization ◽  
Cis And Trans Isomers ◽  
Cis And Trans

Abstract The cis and trans isomers of many simple olefins and conjugated polyolefins can be interconverted by the action of heat, light, and various catalysts, and in many such systems the changes in geometric configuration can be readily followed and the isomers separated and identified. Previous attempts to isomerize natural rubber and gutta-percha by treatment with ultraviolet light and various chemicals gave no detectable cis-trans isomerization, and in general configurational changes in unconjugated polyolefins have been unknown until recently when Golub converted the cis-1,4 units in polybutadiene into the corresponding trans units. This isomerization was achieved by irradiation of the cis-polymer with ultraviolet light in the presence of various organic bromides and sulfur compounds, but apparently this method did not isomerize natural rubber. In attempts to retard the rate of crystallization of natural rubber at moderately low temperatures—i.e., −10° to −40° C—by the attachment of side groups which would interfere with the molecular packing, it was observed that very small amounts of thiol acids were remarkably effective. This suggested that structural changes other than simply the attachment of side groups were occurring in the polyisoprene molecule. Recently it was found that thiol acids could interconvert the cis and trans forms of a simple trialkyl ethylene—e.g., 3-methylpent-2-ene—and subsequently, the isomerization of natural rubber and gutta-percha by these reagents was also observed. Following this, natural rubber, gutta-percha, squalene and cis and trans forms of 3-methylpent-2-ene have also been isomerized by treatment with sulfur dioxide and allied compounds; this work, including an investigation of the physical properties of the vulcanizates obtained from some of the isomerized polyisoprenes, is described in the present paper.

scholarly journals PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KINERJA EKSPOR UTAMA PERTANIAN INDONESIA

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 163-186
Author(s):  
Eka Dewi Satriana ◽  
Harianto ◽  
Dominicus Savio Priyarsono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Rubber ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Trading Partner ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Agricultural Exports

Abstrak Nilai tukar merupakan salah satu aspek yang memengaruhi daya saing ekspor. Pada tahun 2013 hingga tahun 2015, volatilitas nilai tukar mengalami kenaikan, khususnya pada triwulan akhir tahun 2015 yaitu sebesar 16,90%. Kondisi ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia pada tahun tersebut rata-rata mengalami penurunan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh volatilitas nilai tukar terhadap kinerja ekspor utama pertanian Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama dengan menggunakan gravity model. Ekspor utama pertanian yang dianalisis yaitu karet alam, kopi, udang, dan Crude Palm Oil (CPO). Model ARCH-GARCH digunakan untuk mengukur volatilitas nilai tukar. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa volatilitas nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia. Artinya, semakin fluktuatif nilai tukar rupiah maka akan menurunkan ekspor karet alam, kopi, dan udang Indonesia ke negara mitra dagang utama. Pengaruh negatif tersebut juga menunjukkan adanya penghindaran risiko yang dilakukan oleh pelaku usaha. Beberapa rekomendasi hasil kajian yang dapat dilakukan Pemerintah Indonesia adalah menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar, kemudahan akses ke lembaga keuangan, penerapan lindung nilai (hedging), kontrak jangka panjang (longterm contracts), dan menjaga pertumbuhan produksi komoditas. Kata Kunci: Volatilitas Nilai Tukar, Ekspor Utama Pertanian, Model ARCH-GARCH   Abstract The exchange rate is one aspect that affects export competitiveness. From 2013 to 2015, exchange rate volatility increased, especially in the final quarter of 2015, which was 16.90%. Indonesia's main agricultural export conditions in the year on average experienced a decline. This paper analyzes the effect of exchange rate volatility on the performance of Indonesia's main agricultural exports to major trading partner countries using the gravity model. The main agricultural exports analyzed were natural rubber, coffee, shrimp, and Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The ARCH-GARCH model is used to measure exchange rate volatility. The analysis shows that exchange rate volatility harms on Indonesia's exports of natural rubber, coffee, and shrimp. This means, the more the rupiah exchange rate fluctuates will reduce Indonesia's natural rubber, coffee and shrimp exports to the main trading partner countries. The negative influence also indicates the existence of risk aversion by business actors. Some recommendations for the Government of Indonesia based on the study findings are maintaining exchange rate stability, easy access to financial institutions, implementing hedging, long-term contracts, and maintaining commodity production growth. Keywords: Exchange Rate Volatility, Main Agricultural Exports, ARCH-GARCH Model JEL Classification: F14, F31, F41, Q17

scholarly journals Environmental aspects of food wastage in trade – a case study

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-34
Author(s):  
Beata Bilska ◽  
Marzena Tomaszewska ◽  
Danuta Kołożyn-Krajewska ◽  
Krystian Szczepański ◽  
Robert Łaba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Food Production ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
Animal Origin ◽  
Retail Sale ◽  
Environmental Aspects ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Food Wastage ◽  
Annual Turnover ◽  
Emission Of Greenhouse Gases

Abstract Food production is connected with a negative effect on the environment as it is linked with the utilisation of natural resources such as fresh water and with the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). It is, therefore, very important to prevent the wastage of food at all food chain stages. Special attention should be paid to the phenomena which burden the environment in an unjustified way. One such example may be the waste of final products at the stage of retail sale objects. The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the effect of wasted food in the selected network of the retail sale on the environment with the application of water footprint indicator and CO2 emission. On the grounds of the collected data, the participation of food withdrawn from the trade, the reasons for the mentioned phenomenon and the size of the wasted food products and those donated to charities were established. Based upon such data, the level of CO2 emission and the water print of the products which have not been utilised according to their destination were estimated. In spite of the fact that the animal origin products were characterised by a small participation in the weight of the unsold food (ca. 13.34% annually), they constituted the main source of CO2 emission and water footprint estimated from the food waste. It was calculated that the annual turnover and waste of the products only in one trade network was connected with the unjustified emission of ca. 12 thousand tonnes of CO2 and 13 million m3 of water footprint.

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