scholarly journals Population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 virus in residents of the Irkutsk Region in the dynamics of the epidemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 273-283
Author(s):  
S. V. Balakhonov ◽  
V. I. Dubrovina ◽  
M. V. Chesnokova ◽  
D. D. Bryukhova ◽  
N. O. Kiseleva ◽  
...  

Background. Currently, the COVID-19 pandemic in the world and in Russia remains the main event. In this regard, the study of the manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 and the patterns of its development are an urgent area of research. In the fight against this viral disease, an important role is assigned to the study of the development of population immunity to the SARSCoV-2 virus, which will make it possible to assess the dynamics of seroprevalence and the formation of post-infectious humoral immunity, forecasting the development of the epidemiological situation, elucidating the characteristics of the epidemic process, and will also contribute to planning activities for specific and non-specific prevention of the disease.The aim: to determine the dynamics of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the population of the Irkutsk region during the COVID-19 pandemic.Materials and methods. As a part of the Rospotrebnadzor project of assessing population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population of the Russian Federation, the research has being conducted among the population of the Irkutsk region in the periods from June 23, 2020 to July 19, 2020 (Stage 1), from September 16, 2020 to September 25, 2020 (Stage 2), from December 7, 2020 to December 18, 2020 (Stage 3) and from March 8, 2021 to March 14, 2021(Stage 4), taking into account the reacted one recommended by the WHO. The content of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was determined by ELISA using a set of tests for human serum or plasma for specific immunoglobulins of class G to the proteins of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus.The results. The research of the humoral immunity of volunteers shows that during the period of an epidemic rise in the incidence of COVID-19 in the Irkutsk region, a low level of seroprevalence was formed (Stage 1 – 5.8 ± 0.5 %, Stage 2 – 12.1 ± 0.7 %), and in conditions of a long-term maximum increase in the incidence rate – 25.9 ± 1.0 % (Stage 3) and 46.2 ± 1.2 % (Stage 4). A significant proportion (Stage 1 – 82.2 ± 3.2 %, Stage 2 – 86.1 ± 2.3 %) of asymptomatic forms of infection characterizes the high intensity of the latently developing epidemic process in the first two stages. High levels of IgG in reconvalescents of COVID-19 persisted for an average of 3 to 5 months.Conclusion. The results of assessing the population immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population of the Irkutsk region indicate that the seroprevalence level at Stage 4 of the research was 46.2 %. After the disease, on average, 49.5 % of persons did not detect antibodies. The results obtained should be taken into account when organizing preventive measures, including vaccination, and predicting morbidity.

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 12-17
Author(s):  
S. V. Balakhonov ◽  
V. I. Dubrovina ◽  
A. B. Pyatidesyatnikova ◽  
D. D. Briukhova ◽  
N. O. Kiseleva ◽  
...  

Background. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in the world and in Russia remains the main event in 2020. A comprehensive study of the patterns of development and manifestations of the epidemic process of the new coronavirus infection COVID-19 is an urgent line of research. One of the important aspects of the fight against COVID-19 is the study of population immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in order to assess seroprevalence and the formation process of post-infectious humoral immunity to SARS-CoV-2, forecast the development of the epidemiological situation, identify the features of the epidemic process, as well as planning measures for specific and non-specific disease prevention. The aim of the research is to determine the level and structure of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the humans of the Irkutsk region during the COVID-19 epidemic. Materials and methods. As part of the Rospotrebnadzor project to assess population immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population of the Russian Federation, research is being conducted among the population of the Irkutsk region in the periods from 06/23/2020 to 07/19/2020 (stage 1), from 09/16/2020 to 09/25/2020 (Stage 2) and from 12/07/2020 to 12/18/2020 (stage 3), taking into account the reacted one recommended by the WHO. The content of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was determined by ELISA using a set of tests for human serum or plasma for specific immunoglobulins of class G to the nucleocapsid of the SARS-CoV-2 virus produced by FBUN GNCPMiB Rospotrebnadzor (Obolensk). The results of a research of the humoral immunity of volunteers show that during the period of an epidemic rise in the incidence of COVID-19 in the Irkutsk region, a low level of seroprevalence was formed (stage 1 – 5.8 ± 0.5%, stage 2 – 12,1 ± 0,7%), and in conditions of a long-term maximum increase in the incidence rate ¬– 25,9±1,0% (stage 3). A significant proportion (stage 1 – 81,2±3,2%, stage 2 – 90.9 ±1,9%) of asymptomatic forms of infection characterize the high intensity of the latently developing epidemic process in the first two stages. High levels of IgG in reconvalescents of COVID-19 persisted for an average of 3 to 4.5 months. Conclusion. The results of assessing the population immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population of the Irkutsk region indicate that the seroprevalence level at the 3rd stage of the research was 25.9%. After the disease, on average, 41.6% of persons did not detect antibodies. The results obtained should be taken into account when organizing preventive measures, including vaccination, and predicting morbidity.


Author(s):  
S. V. Balakhonov ◽  
M. V. Chesnokova ◽  
A. N. Perezhogin ◽  
A. Ya. Nikitin ◽  
S. V. Kaverzina ◽  
...  

Assessment of a particular territory by its epidemiological significance is very relevant in the light of widespread occurrence of new coronavirus infection, COVID-19, in the Russian Federation.Objective. Detection of the epidemiological features and revealing trends in the epidemic process of new coronavirus infection in the Irkutsk Region and forecasting of its spread.Materials and methods. An operational analysis of the epidemiological situation on COVID-19 in the Irkutsk Region as of August 16, 2020 was performed. Restrictive measures were substantiated based on the calculation of the infection spread rate (Rt).Results and discussion. Irkutsk Region remained one of the adverse territories as regards human COVID-19 incidence in the Siberian Federal District and the Russian Federation as of August 16, 2020. The gradual dynamics of the epidemic process was revealed: at the first stage of the epidemic development it was facilitated by the imported cases from affected countries and regions of the Russian Federation, and subsequently by local transmission. The incidence increase was registered 2 months later than in central regions of the Russian Federation. Currently there is a consistent downward trend. The increase in the cases prevailed among rotation workers staying for shift and seasonal activities in the administrative center and northern districts of the Irkutsk Region. The epidemic pattern was determined by gender, age and social characteristics. It is demonstrated that the risk of the new coronavirus infection is determined by the intensity of contacts in family foci, the spread of infection in medical organizations and a significant proportion of asymptomatic carriers. High lethality rates (0.7 %) and mortality rates (31.1 o / oooo) were established among persons over 65 years. The stationary time series observed since June for changing the Rt-indicator with fluctuations ranging from 0.92 to 1.01 requires maintaining control of restrictive measures with prompt management decisions making based on the evolving epidemiological situation in the Irkutsk Region and taking into account the assessment of its possible complication risks. 


Author(s):  
L. Vacca-Galloway ◽  
Y.Q. Zhang ◽  
P. Bose ◽  
S.H. Zhang

The Wobbler mouse (wr) has been studied as a model for inherited human motoneuron diseases (MNDs). Using behavioral tests for forelimb power, walking, climbing, and the “clasp-like reflex” response, the progress of the MND can be categorized into early (Stage 1, age 21 days) and late (Stage 4, age 3 months) stages. Age-and sex-matched normal phenotype littermates (NFR/wr) were used as controls (Stage 0), as well as mice from two related wild-type mouse strains: NFR/N and a C57BI/6N. Using behavioral tests, we also detected pre-symptomatic Wobblers at postnatal ages 7 and 14 days. The mice were anesthetized and perfusion-fixed for immunocytochemical (ICC) of CGRP and ChAT in the spinal cord (C3 to C5).Using computerized morphomety (Vidas, Zeiss), the numbers of IR-CGRP labelled motoneurons were significantly lower in 14 day old Wobbler specimens compared with the controls (Fig. 1). The same trend was observed at 21 days (Stage 1) and 3 months (Stage 4). The IR-CGRP-containing motoneurons in the Wobbler specimens declined progressively with age.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A.L Van Wijngaarden ◽  
Y.L Hiemstra ◽  
P Van Der Bijl ◽  
V Delgado ◽  
N Ajmone Marsan ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The indication for surgery in patients with severe primary mitral regurgitation (MR) is currently based on the presence of symptoms, left ventricular (LV) dilatation and dysfunction, atrial fibrillation and pulmonary hypertension. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of a new staging classification based on cardiac damage including the known risk factors but also including global longitudinal strain (GLS), severe left atrial (LA) dilatation and right ventricular (RV) dysfunction. Methods In total 614 patients who underwent surgery for severe primary MR with available baseline transthoracic echocardiograms were included. Patients were classified according to the extent of cardiac damage (Figure): Stage 0-no cardiac damage, Stage 1-LV damage, Stage 2-LA damage, Stage 3-pulmonary vasculature or tricuspid valve damage and Stage 4-RV damage. Patients were followed for all-cause mortality. Results Based on the proposed classification, 172 (28%) patients were classified as Stage 0, 102 (17%) as Stage 1, 134 (21%) as Stage 2, 135 (22%) as Stage 3 and 71 (11%) as Stage 4. The more advanced the stage, the older the patients were with worse kidney function, more symptoms and higher EuroScore. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis revealed that patients with more advanced stages of cardiac damage had a significantly worse survival (log-rank chi-square 35.2; p<0.001) (Figure). On multivariable analysis, age, male, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, kidney function, and stage of cardiac damage were independently associated with all-cause mortality. For each stage increase, a 22% higher risk for all-cause mortality was observed (95% CI: 1.064–1.395; p=0.004). Conclusion In patients with severe primary MR, a novel staging classification based on the extent of cardiac damage, may help refining risk stratification, particularly including also GLS, LA dilatation and RV dysfunction in the assessment. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Author(s):  
Ryan Austin Fisher ◽  
Nancy L. Summitt ◽  
Ellen B. Koziel

The purpose of this study was to describe the voice change and voice part assignment of male middle school choir members. Volunteers ( N = 92) were recruited from three public middle school choral programs (Grades 6-8). Participants were audio-recorded performing simple vocal tasks in order to assess vocal range and asked to share the music they were currently singing in class. Results revealed 23.91% of participants’ voices could be categorized as unchanged, 14.13% as Stage 1, 3.26% as Stage 2, 10.87% as Stage 3, 26.09% as Stage 4, and 21.74% as Stage 5. The majority of sixth-grade participants were classified as unchanged or in Stage 1 of the voice change and the majority of eighth-grade participants were classified in Stages 4 to 5 of the voice change. Of the participants labeled “tenors” in their choir, over 60% were classified as either unchanged voices or in Stage 1 of the voice change.


2021 ◽  
Vol 29 ◽  
pp. 297-309
Author(s):  
Xiaohui Chen ◽  
Wenbo Sun ◽  
Dan Xu ◽  
Jiaojiao Ma ◽  
Feng Xiao ◽  
...  

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) imaging combined with artificial intelligence is important in the diagnosis and prognosis of lung diseases. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate temporal changes of quantitative CT findings in patients with COVID-19 in three clinic types, including moderate, severe, and non-survivors, and to predict severe cases in the early stage from the results. METHODS: One hundred and two patients with confirmed COVID-19 were included in this study. Based on the time interval between onset of symptoms and the CT scan, four stages were defined in this study: Stage-1 (0 ∼7 days); Stage-2 (8 ∼ 14 days); Stage-3 (15 ∼ 21days); Stage-4 (> 21 days). Eight parameters, the infection volume and percentage of the whole lung in four different Hounsfield (HU) ranges, ((-, -750), [-750, -300), [-300, 50) and [50, +)), were calculated and compared between different groups. RESULTS: The infection volume and percentage of four HU ranges peaked in Stage-2. The highest proportion of HU [-750, 50) was found in the infected regions in non-survivors among three groups. CONCLUSIONS: The findings indicate rapid deterioration in the first week since the onset of symptoms in non-survivors. Higher proportion of HU [-750, 50) in the lesion area might be a potential bio-marker for poor prognosis in patients with COVID-19.


2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (Supplement_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Roggeri ◽  
Daniela Paola Roggeri ◽  
Carlotta Rossi ◽  
Marco Gambera ◽  
Rossana Piccinelli ◽  
...  

Abstract Background and Aims Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a chronic illness with important implications for the health of the population and for the commitment of resources by public health services. CKD staging makes it possible to assess the severity of the disease and its distribution in the population. The distribution of the stages of CKD diagnosed through hospitalization were analyzed using administrative database of the Local Health Authority of a province with a population of about 1 million inhabitants in northern Italy. Method Patients with hospital discharge with a diagnosis of CKD (ICD9CM 5851, 5852, 5853, 5854) in 2011- 2012 years, without dialysis treatment, neither transplantation procedure nor acute renal failure were selected. Demographic characteristics, comorbidities, dialysis treatment, drugs prescription and nephrological follow-up were investigated. This cohort of patients was examined over a 7-year period (2011-2017). Stage five was not considered to avoid possible misunderstanding with five D stage. Results 1808 patients diagnosed with CKD were extracted from the 2011-2017 administrative database; of these, 1267 had a diagnosis with the CKD stage specification. The distribution of 1267 patients in the CKD stages at the first hospital discharge was as follows: 7.4% stage 1, 30.9% stage 2, 42.3% stage 3, 19.3% stage 4. The 832 patients described in the study were still alive as of Jan. 1, 2013 while 435 (34.3%) died by Dec. 31, 2012. Until Dec. 31, 2017, 503 of the 832 patients died representing the 52.8% of stage 1 patients, 62% of stage 2 patients, 58.2% of stage 3 patients, 66.4% of stage 4 patients. Males were the most prevalent gender (58.5%), without any significant difference into CKD stages. Our patients have a fairly high age as can be seen from the table 1. The presence of co-morbidities was assessed either directly for the main risk factors or by the modified Charlson index (MCI) for CKD patients. The average value of the MCI is 3.8 ± 3.1 for all patients and 3.4 ±3.0 for stage 1, 4.1 ± 3.3 for stage 2, 3.7 ± 3.1 for stage 3, 3.7 ± 2.9 for stage 4, with maximum values of 12.0, 17.0, 16.0 and 14.0 respectively. About 40% of patients had diabetes mellitus, with the highest prevalence in stage 4 (49.3%) and the lowest in stage 1 (25%). Cardiovascular disease was distributed almost equally among all patients with a value between 82% in stage 1 and 86.3% in stage 4. Cancer were present in 26.3% of patients with similar values in all stages. Just about 9% of patients underwent dialysis treatment for achieving ESRD, with a percentage of 5.6% among patients in stage 1 and 17.1% among those in stage 4. Hemodialysis represented first choice treatment (86%) compared with peritoneal one (14%). Time from the diagnosis of CKD to the first dialysis was variable with an average of 3.4 ±1.7 years; the longest interval for patients in stage 1 (5.1±1.8) and the shortest (3.0 ±1.6) for patients in stage 4. The number of nephrological visits at renal units was analyzed for an assessment of the extent of follow-up and prevention upon reaching the ESRD (table2). More than 90% of patients had prescribed drugs antagonists of the renin angiotensin system, in all stages of CKD; other antihypertensive drugs (Ca channel blockers and peripheral vasodilators) had a similar prescription level. Anemia control drugs (ESA and iron) had an incremental prescription with stages of the disease from 51.4% in stage 1 to 74% in stage 4, similarly to Ca-P metabolism control drugs ranging from 44.4% in stage 1 to 67.8% in stage 4. Conclusion Correct staging of CKD is very important to assess the prognosis of patients, but the major determinants of outcome are comorbidities and age of the patients. The cohort examined has a high mortality rate, far higher than reported in the literature for CKD. It should be noted that the sample was identified by hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases more than 50% complicated by diabetes and hypertension, so death represents the main outcome and not ESRD.


2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 272-277 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cemil Yildiz ◽  
Yusuf Erdem ◽  
Kenan Koca

Introduction: The aim of this study was to report the clinical and radiological outcomes for 21 patients (28 hips) treated for osteonecrosis of the femoral head using the lightbulb technique, a nonvascularised bone grafting technique. Methods: The study group included 14 men and 7 women, with a mean age of 33.2 (range 22-50) years, presenting with avascular necrosis of the femoral head of stage 4a or earlier, according to the Steinberg classification. Patients were treated using the nonvascularised lightbulb bone grafting technique. The primary clinical outcome was the Harris Hip Scores (HHS), while primary outcomes of treatment effectiveness and disease progression were based on radiographic evidence of disease progression and the need for total hip replacement. The rate of treatment success and failure was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Results: The mean HHS increased from 52.66 to 74.33 after treatment, with excellent-to-good outcomes obtained in 21 (75%) of the cases. Fair-to-poor results were obtained in 7 (25%) of the cases, with total hip arthroplasty subsequently required in 5 of these cases. The radiological failure rate was 50% among cases treated in Steinberg stage 1 (1/2), 42% in stage 3 (5/12), and 100% in stage 4 (2/2). Conclusions: The lightbulb technique can provide a clinically acceptable rate of successful treatment of osteonecrosis of the femoral head when used in the early stages of the disease, prior to collapse of the femoral head.


The explosive oxidation of acetylene, initiated homogeneously by the flash photolysis of a small quantity of nitrogen dioxide, has been investigated by flash spectroscopy. The absorption spectra of OH, CH, C 2 (singlet and triplet), C 3 , CN and NH, a number of which have not previously been observed, are described, and the relative concentrations, at all times throughout the explosion, are given. Four stages have been distinguished in the explosive reaction: 1. An initial period during which only OH appears. 2. A rapid chain branching involving all the diatomic radicals. 3. Further reaction, occurring only when oxygen is present in excess of equimolecular proportions, during which the OH concentration rises exponentially and the other radicals are totally consumed. 4. A relatively slow exponential decay of the excess radical concentration remaining after completion of stages 2 and 3. The duration of stage 1 is 0 to 3 ms. In an equimolecular mixture at 20 mm total pressure, containing 1.5 mm NO 2 , the durations of both stage 2 and stage 3 are approximately 10 -4 s and the half-life of OH in stage 4 is 0.28 ms. A preliminary interpretation of these changes and of the radical reactions is given.


2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raira Fernanda Altmann ◽  
Karin Zazo Ortiz ◽  
Tainá Rossato Benfica ◽  
Eduarda Pinheiro de Oliveira ◽  
Karina Carlesso Pagliarin

Abstract Background Evaluating patients in the acute phase of brain damage allows for the early detection of cognitive and linguistic impairments and the implementation of more effective interventions. However, few cross-cultural instruments are available for the bedside assessment of language abilities. The aim of this study was to develop a brief assessment instrument and evaluate its content validity. Methods Stimuli for the new assessment instrument were selected from the M1-Alpha and MTL-BR batteries (Stage 1). Sixty-five images were redesigned and analyzed by non-expert judges (Stage 2). This was followed by the analysis of expert judges (Stage 3), where nine speech pathologists with doctoral training and experience in aphasiology and/or linguistics evaluated the images, words, nonwords, and phrases for inclusion in the instrument. Two pilot studies (Stage 4) were then conducted in order to identify any remaining errors in the instrument and scoring instructions. Results Sixty of the 65 figures examined by the judges achieved inter-rater agreement rates of at least 80%. Modifications were suggested to 22 images, which were therefore reanalyzed by the judges, who reached high levels of inter-rater agreement (AC1 = 0.98 [CI = 0.96–1]). New types of stimuli such as nonwords and irregular words were also inserted in the Brief Battery and favorably evaluated by the expert judges. Optional tasks were also developed for specific diagnostic situations. After the correction of errors detected in Stage 4, the final version of the instrument was obtained. Conclusion This study confirmed the content validity of the Brief MTL-BR Battery. The method used in this investigation was effective and can be used in future studies to develop brief instruments based on preexisting assessment batteries.


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