Business Cycle in Agriculture in Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-230
Author(s):  
Andrzej Jędruchniewicz ◽  
Jan-Philipp Huchtemann ◽  
Philipp Welter ◽  
Eike Nordmeyer ◽  
Achim Spiller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Growth Phase ◽  
Growth Phases ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Agricultural Income ◽  
Final Output ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Analysis Of Dynamics ◽  
Almost All

The main objective of the study was to characterize the business cycle and its particular phases in Polish agriculture and compare with the features of the cycle occurring in theory. The research for the years 2001-2015 which was based on annual real changes in final output allowed to identify three full cycles in Polish agriculture: 1) 2001-2006; 2) 2007-2010; 3) 2011-2015. The analysis of fluctuations showed that all cycles lasted from 4 to 6 years. Growth phases took from 2 to 4 years, and all downward ones lasted 2 years. The amplitudes of these phases were similar. There were both turning points and turning zones in the cycles. The analysis of accumulated dynamics of production, income, prices and investments in particular phases of the business cycle in Polish agriculture shows that in each growth phase all categories have increased. In almost all cycles, the dynamics of these categories in the growth phase was greater than the changes during the downturn. According to the theory of the classical cycle, the value of production as well as agricultural prices changed the most. They had negative dynamics in almost every downward phase. On the other hand, the dynamics of agricultural incomes was positive in all downward phases. Therefore, changes in this category in most cases had the features of the modern cycle. Changes in investments in the downward phases were diversified. The analysis of dynamics indicates that agricultural income and investments in Poland was also affected by the Common Agricultural Policy.

Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle

1999 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dick van Dijk ◽  
Philip Hans Franses
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Growth Phase ◽  
High Growth ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Star Model ◽  
Two Phase ◽  
Star Models ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
Multiple Regimes ◽  
The Business Cycle

The interest in business-cycle asymmetry has been steadily increasing over the past 15 years. Most research has focused on the different behavior of macroeconomic variables during expansions and contractions, which by now is well documented. Recent evidence suggests that such a two-phase characterization of the business cycle might be too restrictive. In particular, it might be worthwhile to decompose the recovery phase in a high-growth phase (immediately following the trough of a cycle) and a subsequent moderate-growth phase. The issue of multiple regimes in the business cycle is addressed using smooth-transition autoregressive (STAR) models. A possible limitation of STAR models as they currently are used is that essentially they deal with only two regimes. We propose a generalization of the STAR model such that more than two regimes can be accommodated. It is demonstrated that the class of multiple-regime STAR (MRSTAR) models can be obtained from the two-regime model in a simple way. The main properties of the MRSTAR model and several issues that are relevant for empirical specification are discussed in detail. In particular, a Lagrange multiplier-type test is derived that can be used to determine the appropriate number of regimes. A limited simulation study indicates its practical usefulness. Application of the new model class to U.S. real GNP provides evidence in favor of the existence of multiple business-cycle phases.

scholarly journals Economic size of farms and adjustments of the total factor productivity to the business cycle in Polish agriculture  

2017 ◽  
Vol 63 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 93-102
Author(s):  
 Czyzewski Bazyli ◽  
 Majchrzak Adam
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Total Factor Productivity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Factor Productivity ◽  
Input Output ◽  
The Real ◽  
Agricultural Income ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Economic Size

The article presents an approach to changes in the total factor productivity (TFP) which differs from that generally found in the literature. Changes are calculated in the real terms using the detailed input-output matrices for representative farms in Poland, for different economic size classes, in the years 2007–2013. Input-output matrices were used for the decomposition of the Hicks-Moorsteen TFP index. The goal is to evaluate changes in the real TFP in the downturn and recovery phases of the business cycle in agriculture. It was found that the reaction of TFP to business cycle changes on “small”, “medium” and even “large” family farms in Poland is diametrically opposite to that observed in the case of large-scale farms. More than 90% of farms in Poland (except for the largest) increase technical productivity in the conditions of the economic downturn and lower it in the conditions of the economic recovery. Such behaviour is pro-cyclic and irrational, alluding to the 17th-century King’s effect, which is vanishing in the agricultural systems of highly developed countries. The hypothesis is proposed that the size of the price expectation error which causes that effect is negatively correlated with the economic size of the farm, but at the same time it is proportional to the percentage of agricultural income obtained from subsidies and other payments under the SAPS system.  

scholarly journals Multimodal KDK Classifier For Automatic Classification of Movie Trailers

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 8481-8490
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Visual Features ◽  
Multiple Models ◽  
Genre Classification ◽  
Final Output ◽  
Hollywood Movies ◽  
Ann Models ◽  
The Common ◽  
Almost All

Movie trailer classification is a field of automation of analyzing the movie trailers and classify them into one of the various genres. In this paper, we proposed a classifier to identify the genre of a movie trailer by analyzing it's audio and visual features simultaneously. Our Approach decomposes a trailer video into frames and audio file and then analyze them based on certain specific features to categorize them into four genres. Our aim was to minimize the number of parameters involved in analyzing the trailer since other papers use many arguments which are impractical. The proposed classifier was trained on 4 audio, 2 broad visual features extracted from over 900 movie trailers distributed across 4 different genres, namely Drama, Horror, Romance, and Action. The Classifier Model has been trained using Neural Networks and Convolutional Neural Networks. Our Classifier Model can be used in Recommendation Systems and various websites like IMDB for automation of the genre classification process. As the common humanly approach is to generalize the results obtained from many inputs, the same way we use multiple models to obtain different outputs from multiple ANN models and then combine all the obtained results to get a final output. Also a Dataset containing 1000 movie trailers was introduced in this paper with trailers spanning to almost all Hollywood movies from 2010-2019 .After training and conducting Experiments on around 1000 movie trailers, the classifier model showed a maximum accuracy of 81 percent in determining top 1 genre and 91 percent in determining top 2 genres of a movie trailers in the test set

scholarly journals Cykl koniunkturalny w rolnictwie z perspektywy austriackiej szkoły ekonomii

2015 ◽  
pp. 111-121
Author(s):  
Jacek Maśniak
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Growth Phase ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Production Structure ◽  
Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle Theory ◽  
Austrian Business Cycle ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Polish Economy

The aim of the article is to present the business cycle in Polish agriculture from the Austrian school of economics perspective. According to the Austrian business cycle theory, the main cause of business cycle is an expansionary monetary policy. It leads to lengthening the production structure in the growth phase. The largest growth is observed in sectors situated far away from the consumer. However, in the recession phase these sectors face the biggest downswings. The agriculture is relatively prone to fluctuations of production. A study carried out for the Polish economy in years 1999–2013 showed that the fluctuations of global and final agriculture output was larger than the food production, but smaller than the industry production.

Fibrinolytic Activity of the Arterial Wall

1969 ◽  
Vol 21 (01) ◽  
pp. 001-011 ◽  
Author(s):  
K Onoyama ◽  
K Tanaka
Keyword(s):  
Carotid Artery ◽  
Fibrinolytic Activity ◽  
Arterial Wall ◽  
Aortic Wall ◽  
Internal Carotid ◽  
Atheromatous Plaque ◽  
Human Fibrinogen ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Common ◽  
Almost All

SummaryThe tissue fibrinolysis was studied in 550 specimens of 7 kinds of arteries from 80 fresh cadavers, using Astrup’s biochemical method and Todd’s histochemical method with human fibrinogen.In the microscopically normal aortic wall, almost all specimens had the fibrinolytic activity which was the strongest in the adventitia and the weakest in the media.The fibrinolytic activity seemed to be localized in the endothelium.The stronger activity lay in the adventitia of the aorta and the pulmonary artery and all layers of the cerebral artery.The activity of the intima and media of the macroscopically normal areas seemed to be stronger in the internal carotid artery than in the common carotid artery.Mean fibrinolytic activity of the macroscopically normal areas seemed to decrease with age in the intima and the media of the thoracic aorta and seemed to be low in the cases with a high atherosclerotic index.The fibrinolytic activities of all three layers of the fibrous thickened aorta seemed to decrease, and those of the media and the adventitia of the atheromatous plaque to increase.The fibrinolytic activity of the arterial wall might play some role in the progress of atherosclerosis.

Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

CFA Digest ◽  
2005 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 42-43
Author(s):  
Daniel B. Cashion
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
The Business Cycle

EXPANSIONS AND RECESSIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES: A CLASSICAL BUSINESS CYCLES APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Pablo Mejía-Reyes
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Clear Cut ◽  
Output Measure ◽  
Central Regions ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
National Business ◽  
Cycle Indicator

This paper aims to document expansions and recessions characteristics for 17 states of Mexico over the period 1993-2006 by using a classical business cycle approach. We use the manufacturing production index for each state as the business cycle indicator since it is the only output measure available on a monthly basis. According to this approach, we analyse asymmetries in mean, volatility and duration as well as synchronisation over the business cycle regimes (expansions and recessions) for each case. Our results indicate that recessions are less persistent and more volatile (in general) than expansions in most Mexican states; yet, there is no clear cut evidence on mean asymmetries. In turn, there seems to be strong links between the business cycle regimes within the Northern and Central regions of the country and between states with similar industrialisation patterns, although it is difficult to claim that a national business cycle exists.

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