scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

The Impact of Economic Sentiment, Consumer, Producer and Investor's Confidence Indices on Stock Returns of the Listed Companies in FTSE-20 in Greece

2018 ◽  
pp. 162-209
Author(s):  
Constantine Cantzos ◽  
Petros Kalantonis ◽  
Aristidis Papagrigoriou ◽  
Stefanos Theotokas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Behavioral Indicators ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock returns of companies listed in the FTSE-20 on the Athens Exchange and behavioral indicators. The research is based on the behavioral APT model, which examines stock returns' risk factors through the involvement of macroeconomic variables and behavioral indicators. The data is the closing price of 17 shares listed in the FTSE-20 index, a number of macroeconomic variables, and a series of behavioral indicators for the period of January 2001-December 2014. Regressions were conducted with dependent variable stock returns of a portfolio invested equally in these 17 stocks. In addition, the research tests the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium and causality. The change in the industrial production index along with the risk premium have a positive and significant impact on the portfolio returns. Johansen's test showed that there is a long-run equilibrium between stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and behavioral indicators. The VECM and VAR models showed that there is not long and short-run causality, not even Granger causality. No similar research has been conducted in Greece, thus it fills a literature gap.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Banking Profitabilty

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Lutfullah Lutf ◽  
Hafizullah Omarkhil
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Comparative Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study comparatively focuses on the impact of macroeconomic determinants and the internal indicators on bank performance. It comparatively evaluates the differential effects of macroeconomic variables and bank specific variables. Thus, considering five-five banks from each system, a comparative performance investigation between conventional & Islamic banks is the aim of this paper. To determine the short-run and long-run impact of these factors, co-integration & general to specific approach are adopted. This study also considers bank specific and macroeconomic variables in two separate models (Return on Assets and Return on Equity). Our objective is to find whether or not Islamic banks are performing well in the country as compared to their conventional counterparts. The results indicate that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product, and inflation, is positively related to performance, while Interest rate has no effect on the performance of banking sector in Pakistan. Similarly, bank size, capital adequacy, expenses, interest income and non-interest income are the bank related factors that significantly influence the performance of financial sector.

scholarly journals Conventional REITs, Islamic REITs and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Edil Abd Sukor ◽  
Zahida Abu Sujak ◽  
Kamaruzaman Noordin
Keyword(s):  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Asset Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Conventional Counterpart

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the return and dividend characteristics of two different types of Malaysian real estate investment trust (REIT) series, namely, conventional and Islamic, against macroeconomic variables over the period 2011-2017. Design/methodology/approach The required data are derived from Datastream database. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on financial performance of 13 Malaysian REIT series. Findings Results show that the macroeconomic variables are able to predict future returns and dividends of Malaysian REITs. The analysis also suggests that Islamic REITs are seen to be less sensitive to macroeconomic variables and display better portfolio diversification benefits as compared to their conventional counterpart. The ongoing implications for large-cap and small-cap REITs are also highlighted. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of the study is the small percentage of Islamic REITs sample due to limited period of observation available. However, the two Islamic REITs included are representative of Islamic REITs in Malaysia as both of them are listed in the Bursa Malaysia with asset size and market capitalization values more than RM1bn. Practical implications The results of this study may serve as a useful input for financial market players on making strategic business decisions especially with regards to differences between conventional and Islamic REITs characteristics. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to explore the relationship between REITs and macroeconomic factors on a unique capital market (Malaysia) that allows comparison between conventional and its Islamic counterpart.

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Prices in Kuwait

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad M. Al-Kandari ◽  
Sadeq J. Abul
Keyword(s):  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

The Kuwaiti Stock Exchange was established in April 1977 and is among the oldest stock exchanges in the GCC countries. This study aims to add new evidence about the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange. It examines empirically the dynamic relationship between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the main macroeconomic variables. These variables included M2, the three-month deposit interest rate, oil prices, the US Dollar vs Kuwaiti Dinar exchange rate and the inflation rate. By applying the Johansen cointegration test, together with the Var Error Correction Model (VECM), the study found that there a long-run unidirectional relationship exists between the Kuwaiti Stock Exchange Index and the aforementioned macroeconomic variables. This study also confirmed the existence of a short-run relationship between oil prices and stock prices in Kuwait.

Trade Liberalization and Poverty: The Evidence So Far

2004 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 72-115 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Alan Winters ◽  
Neil McCulloch ◽  
Andrew McKay
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Current State ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Key Questions

This paper assesses the current state of evidence on the impact of trade policy reform on poverty in developing countries. There is little empirical evidence addressing this question directly, but a lot of related evidence on specific aspects. We summarize this evidence using an analytic framework addressing four key areas: economic growth and stability; households and markets; wages and employment and government revenue. Twelve key questions are identified and empirical studies and results are discussed. We argue that there is no simple generalizable conclusion about the relationship between trade liberalization and poverty, and the picture is much less negative than is often suggested. In the long run and on average, trade liberalization is likely to be strongly poverty alleviating, and there is no convincing evidence that it will generally increase overall poverty or vulnerability. But there is evidence that the poor may be less well placed in the short run to protect themselves against adverse effects and take advantage of favorable opportunities.

The Study on Cointegration of Macro-Economy and Bank Credit Risk

2014 ◽  
Vol 618 ◽  
pp. 578-582
Author(s):  
Qian Gao ◽  
Hui Ling Wu ◽  
Xian Bin Wu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Structural Factors ◽  
Economic Cycle ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This paper, after excluding the impact of structural factors, studes the relationship between macroeconomic variables and bank credit risk by using the concept of cointegration time series. It finds that the co-integration between time of loans issuance and economic cycle does not exist. The economic cycle has a significant impact to the level of non-performing loans in point, and the co-integration relationship between the two is obvious. Credit scale has a significant long-run equilibrium relationship with economic cycle.

scholarly journals Are fiscal deficits inflationary in Nigeria? New evidence from bounds testing to cointegration with structural breaks

2021 ◽  
Vol 66 (228) ◽  
pp. 123-147
Author(s):  
Ismail Fasanya ◽  
Ayinke Fajobi ◽  
Abiodun Adetokunbo
Keyword(s):  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Relationship

In this paper, we model the relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation for Nigeria using annual data from 1980 to 2016. We employ the linear ARDL approach and account for structural breaks using the Bai and Perron (2003) test that allows for multiple structural changes in regression models. The paper finds that the fiscal deficit is a major determinant of inflation along with other macroeconomic factors considered in the study. However, we observe that it may be necessary to pretest for structural breaks when modelling the relationship between the fiscal deficit and the price level, as it performs better than when structural events are not considered. The results imply that a fiscal management process that does not encourage increased revenue and reduce fiscal deficits will further worsen the level of inflation in the country.

scholarly journals Microfinance, the Role and Impact on Macroeconomic Indicators of the Country. Case study: Albania

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-168
Author(s):  
Esmeralda Doçi
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Agricultural Development ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Empirical Evaluation ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Microcredit or microfinance are one of the most important novelties on development policy in the last 25 years. Most of the recent studies are based on the impact that microfinance has on poverty reduction or on the income on macroeconomic level. Due to lack of data on microfinance on a macro level, studies of their impact on poverty are limited. However, they have recently analysed the link between microeconomics and microfinance activity, which has shown significant connectivity between the operations of Micro Financial Institutions and Macroeconomic indicators.Microfinance in Albania has developed and this is demonstrated by the presence of Micro Financial Institutions which have contributed to poverty reduction and to economic development in general, and to agricultural development in particular. The purpose of the study is to analyse the importance and the relationship between microfinance and macroeconomic indicators, the impact that microfinance has on macroeconomic indicators. Based on previous literature researchers and empirical studies, this study aims to analyse empirically the relationship between the gross portofolio of MFIs and macroeconomic factors. Specifically, to analyse whether a country with high level of credit portfolio provided by Micro Financial Institutions has low poverty and macroeconomic factors taken into analysis, considering the endogeneity of the gross portfolio of Micro Fianancial Institutions. The empirical evaluation and analysis is carried out through econometric evaluation using the EViews program.

The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-357
Author(s):  
Talknice Saungweme ◽  
Nicholas M. Odhiambo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This article provides a detailed survey of existing theoretical and empirical literature on the impact of public debt on economic growth in both developing and developed economies. The aim of the article is to add to the existing debate on the relationship between public debt and economic growth in world economies. The survey finds diverse and, in some cases, inconsistent evidence on the relative impact of public debt on economic growth. Although the majority of the surveyed literature supports the negative effect of public debt on economic growth, several other studies have found a long-run positive impact of public debt on economic growth through the fiscal multiplier effect. The article also found that a few other studies support the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH), which states that the relationship between public debt and economic growth is nonexistent. On balance, the article also found that there is a growing body of empirical evidence, which supports the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Overall, it concludes that theoretical models and empirical studies yield inconclusive results depending on a set of heterogeneous factors, including the level of development of the sampled countries, data coverage, methodology used, and the researchers’ choice of control variables, among other factors. This literature survey differs predominantly from other earlier studies in that it provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between government debt and economic growth, in addition to disentangling public debt into two components, domestic and foreign, and expounding on their relative effects on economic growth.

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