scholarly journals Dynamic Pricing Research for Container Terminal Handling Charges Based on Demand Forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiu Wang ◽  
Yi Ding
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Container Terminal ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Demand Forecast ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Container Handling ◽  
Pricing Research

A dynamic pricing model was established based on forecasting the demand for container handling of a specific shipping company to maximize terminal profits to solve terminal handling charges under the changing market environment. It assumes that container handling demand depends on the price and the unknown parameters in the demand model. The maximum quasi-likelihood estimation(MQLE) method is used to estimate the unknown parameters. Then an adaptive dynamic pricing policy algorithm is proposed. At the beginning of each period, through dynamic pricing, determining the optimal price relative to the estimation value of the current parameter and attach a constraint of differential price decision. Meanwhile, the accuracy of demand estimation and the optimality of price decisions are balanced. Finally, a case study is given based on the real data of Shanghai port. The results show that this pricing policy can make the handling price converge to the stable price and significantly increase this shipping company's handling profit compared with the original "contractual pricing" mechanism.

scholarly journals The New Novel Discrete Distribution with Application on COVID-19 Mortality Numbers in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Latvia

Complexity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
M. Nagy ◽  
Ehab M. Almetwally ◽  
Ahmed M. Gemeay ◽  
Heba S. Mohammed ◽  
Taghreed M. Jawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Statistical Model ◽  
Discrete Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Linear Representation ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
New Novel

This paper aims to introduce a superior discrete statistical model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality numbers in Saudi Arabia and Latvia. We introduced an optimal and superior statistical model to provide optimal modeling for the death numbers due to the COVID-19 infections. This new statistical model possesses three parameters. This model is formulated by combining both the exponential distribution and extended odd Weibull family to formulate the discrete extended odd Weibull exponential (DEOWE) distribution. We introduced some of statistical properties for the new distribution, such as linear representation and quantile function. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is applied to estimate the unknown parameters of the DEOWE distribution. Also, we have used three datasets as an application on the COVID-19 mortality data in Saudi Arabia and Latvia. These three real data examples were used for introducing the importance of our distribution for fitting and modeling this kind of discrete data. Also, we provide a graphical plot for the data to ensure our results.

scholarly journals The Exponentiated Lindley Geometric Distribution with Applications

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 510
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Zhengqiu Xu ◽  
Min Wang
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Geometric Distribution ◽  
Residual Life ◽  
Information Matrix ◽  
Expectation Maximization Algorithm ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimates ◽  
Unknown Parameters

We introduce a new three-parameter lifetime distribution, the exponentiated Lindley geometric distribution, which exhibits increasing, decreasing, unimodal, and bathtub shaped hazard rates. We provide statistical properties of the new distribution, including shape of the probability density function, hazard rate function, quantile function, order statistics, moments, residual life function, mean deviations, Bonferroni and Lorenz curves, and entropies. We use maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown parameters, and an Expectation-Maximization algorithm is also developed to find the maximum likelihood estimates. The Fisher information matrix is provided to construct the asymptotic confidence intervals. Finally, two real-data examples are analyzed for illustrative purposes.

Personalized Dynamic Pricing with Machine Learning: High-Dimensional Features and Heterogeneous Elasticity

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gah-Yi Ban ◽  
N. Bora Keskin
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Customized Pricing ◽  
The Individual

We consider a seller who can dynamically adjust the price of a product at the individual customer level, by utilizing information about customers’ characteristics encoded as a d-dimensional feature vector. We assume a personalized demand model, parameters of which depend on s out of the d features. The seller initially does not know the relationship between the customer features and the product demand but learns this through sales observations over a selling horizon of T periods. We prove that the seller’s expected regret, that is, the revenue loss against a clairvoyant who knows the underlying demand relationship, is at least of order [Formula: see text] under any admissible policy. We then design a near-optimal pricing policy for a semiclairvoyant seller (who knows which s of the d features are in the demand model) who achieves an expected regret of order [Formula: see text]. We extend this policy to a more realistic setting, where the seller does not know the true demand predictors, and show that this policy has an expected regret of order [Formula: see text], which is also near-optimal. Finally, we test our theory on simulated data and on a data set from an online auto loan company in the United States. On both data sets, our experimentation-based pricing policy is superior to intuitive and/or widely-practiced customized pricing methods, such as myopic pricing and segment-then-optimize policies. Furthermore, our policy improves upon the loan company’s historical pricing decisions by 47% in expected revenue over a six-month period. This paper was accepted by Noah Gans, stochastic models and simulation.

The Odd Log-Logistic Log-Normal Distribution with Theory and Applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (04) ◽  
pp. 1850009 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gamze Ozel ◽  
Emrah Altun ◽  
Morad Alizadeh ◽  
Mahdieh Mozafari
Keyword(s):  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Heavy Tailed ◽  
Log Normal ◽  
Log Normal Distribution

In this paper, a new heavy-tailed distribution is used to model data with a strong right tail, as often occuring in practical situations. The proposed distribution is derived from the log-normal distribution, by using odd log-logistic distribution. Statistical properties of this distribution, including hazard function, moments, quantile function, and asymptotics, are derived. The unknown parameters are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation procedure. For different parameter settings and sample sizes, a simulation study is performed and the performance of the new distribution is compared to beta log-normal. The new lifetime model can be very useful and its superiority is illustrated by means of two real data sets.

scholarly journals The Three-parameters Marshall-Olkin Generalized Weibull Model with Properties and Different Applications to Real Data Sets

2020 ◽  
pp. 675-688
Author(s):  
Mohamed G. Khalil ◽  
Wagdy M. Kamel
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Weibull Model ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Graphical Simulation ◽  
Method Of Maximum Likelihood ◽  
New Distribution

A new three-parameter life parametric model called the Marshall-Olkin generalized Weibull is defined and studied. Relevant properties are mathematically derived and analyzed. The new density exhibits various important symmetric and asymmetric shapes with different useful kurtosis. The new failure rate can be “constant”, “upside down-constant (reversed U-HRF-constant)”, “increasing then constant”, “monotonically increasing”, “J-HRF” and “monotonically decreasing”. The method of maximum likelihood is employed to estimate the unknown parameters. A graphical simulation is performed to assess the performance of the maximum likelihood estimation. We checked and proved empirically the importance, applicability and flexibility of the new Weibull model in modeling various symmetric and asymmetric types of data. The new distribution has a high ability to model different symmetric and asymmetric types of data.

scholarly journals Transmuted Singh-Maddala Distribution: A new Flexible and Upside-Down Bathtub Shaped Hazard Function Distribution

2017 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirza Naveed Shahzad ◽  
Faton Merovci ◽  
Zahid Asghar
Keyword(s):  
Hazard Function ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Reliability Function ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Distribution Models ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Bathtub Shape ◽  
Parent Distribution ◽  
Special Cases

The Singh-Maddala distribution is very popular to analyze the data on income, expenditure, actuarial, environmental, and reliability related studies. To enhance its scope and application, we propose four parameters transmutedSingh-Maddala distribution, in this study. The proposed distribution is relatively more flexible than the parent distribution to model a variety of data sets. Its basic statistical properties, reliability function, and behaviors of the hazard function are derived. The hazard function showed the decreasing and an upside-down bathtub shape that is required in various survival analysis. The order statistics and generalized TL-moments with their special cases such as L-, TL-, LL-, and LH-moments are also explored. Furthermore, the maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the transmuted Singh-Maddala distribution. The real data sets are considered to illustrate the utility and potential of the proposed model. The results indicate that the transmuted Singh-Maddala distribution models the datasets better than its parent distribution.

scholarly journals Pareto Distribution under Hybrid Censoring: Some Estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-17
Author(s):  
Gyan Prakash
Keyword(s):  
Pareto Distribution ◽  
Simulated Data ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Loss Functions ◽  
Bayes Estimators ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Hybrid Censoring ◽  
Pareto Model

In the present study, the Pareto model is considered as the model from which observations are to be estimated using a Bayesian approach. Properties of the Bayes estimators for the unknown parameters have studied by using different asymmetric loss functions on hybrid censoring pattern and their risks have compared. The properties of maximum likelihood estimation and approximate confidence length have also been investigated under hybrid censoring. The performances of the procedures are illustrated based on simulated data obtained under the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a real data set.

scholarly journals The Promise and Perils of Myopia in Dynamic Pricing With Censored Information

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meenal Chhabra ◽  
Sanmay Das ◽  
Ilya Ryzhov
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Pricing ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Keyword Auctions ◽  
Linear Demand ◽  
Myopic Strategy ◽  
User Ratings

A seller with unlimited inventory of a digital good interacts with potential buyers with i.i.d. valuations. The seller can adaptively quote prices to each buyer to maximize long-term profits, but does not know the valuation distribution exactly. Under a linear demand model, we consider two information settings: partially censored, where agents who buy reveal their true valuations after the purchase is completed, and completely censored, where agents never reveal their valuations. In the partially censored case, we prove that myopic pricing with a Pareto prior is Bayes optimal and has finite regret. In both settings, we evaluate the myopic strategy against more sophisticated look-aheads using three valuation distributions generated from real data on auctions of physical goods, keyword auctions, and user ratings, where the linear demand assumption is clearly violated. For some datasets, complete censoring actually helps, because the restricted data acts as a "regularizer" on the posterior, preventing it from being affected too much by outliers.

scholarly journals The Truncated Power Lomax Distribution: Properties and Applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 655-668
Author(s):  
Sirinapa ARYUYUEN ◽  
Winai BODHISUWAN
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Hazard Function ◽  
Likelihood Estimation ◽  
Real Data ◽  
The Other ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Truncated Distribution ◽  
Unknown Parameters ◽  
Lomax Distribution

A new truncated distribution, called the truncated power Lomax (TPL) distribution, is proposed. This is a truncated version of the power Lomax distribution. The TPL distribution has increasing and decreasing shapes of the hazard function. Some statistical properties, such as moments, survival, hazard, and quantile functions, are discussed. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is constructed for estimating the unknown parameters of the TPL distribution. Moreover, the distribution has been fitted with real data sets to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed distribution. From the results of the example applications, the TPL distribution provides a consistently better fit than the other distributions, i.e., power Lomax and Lomax.

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