scholarly journals PENERAPAN MODEL ARIMA UNTUK PERAMALAN JUMLAH KLAIM PROGRAM JAMINAN HARI TUA PADA BPJS KETENAGAKERJAAN KOTA LANGSA

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 491-500
Author(s):  
Fazrina Saumi ◽  
Rizki Amalia
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Estimation ◽  
Social Security ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Diagnostic Test ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Satisfaction Level ◽  
Social Security Programs ◽  
Q Model

Social Security (BPJS Ketenagakerjaan) in Langsa is a Public Legal established to organize social security programs for workers. The program is managed by PT. JAMSOSTEK with 4 programs one of which is JHT (Jaminan Hari Tua / Old Age Protection). JHT program is a long-term program that is given periodically at once before participant enter retirment. This research aims to increase the number of claims of  BPJS Ketenagakerjaan participants in JHT program with ARIMA model, through the forecast BPJS can increase service with the number of claims from year to year so that the satisfaction level of JHT program participants is guaranteed. Data processing uses MINITAB 18 software with data stationary initial steps, tentavie model identically (p,d,q) model parameter estimation, diagnostic test, and last model used for forecasting. The ARIMA model obtained is ARIMA (4, 1, 2) with a MAPE value of 6.87% which shows excellent forecasting results. The result forecast the number of JHT program claims in BPJS Ketenagakerjaan period August 2019 to December 2019 as may as 444, 403, 419, 336, 404 people, respectively. Based on the results of the forecast, especially that the number of JHT program claims fluctuated, this indicates that BJPS Ketenagakerjaan in Langsa needs to increase the equivalent service for the JHT program.

Fixing Social Security: Major Reform or Minor Repairs?

2019 ◽  
Vol 686 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-62
Author(s):  
Gary Burtless
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
Reform Strategy ◽  
Reform Plan ◽  
The Social ◽  
Major Reform ◽  
Congressional Action

Without congressional action, the Social Security reserve fund will be exhausted by 2035. When that occurs, benefit payments must be cut by one-fifth. To avoid that outcome, Congress must agree on a reform plan that boosts revenues, cuts pensions, or does both. The choice of a reform strategy should depend on voters’ support for the goals of the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program and evidence about the program’s effectiveness in achieving those goals. This article explains the aims of the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) program, briefly describes how the program attempts to achieve those aims, and considers evidence on whether the goals have been achieved and at what cost. It then considers alternative reforms that address OASI’s main problem, namely, the long-term shortfall in program revenues compared with pension commitments. It concludes by identifying the reforms that seem best suited to achieving OASI’s core aims while conforming to voter preferences.

Tackling Long-Term Budget Deficits in an Aging Society

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue Chim Richard Wong
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Old Age ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
The Public ◽  
Aging Society ◽  
Social Pension ◽  
The Social ◽  
Old Age Poverty ◽  
To Come

The aging of Hong Kong’s population is a rapidly approaching, multifaceted challenge that will be around for many decades to come. Unfortunately, the public sees this problem solely as one of poverty and social security. The social welfare lobby has successfully branded aging as a poverty issue that requires welfare support. Politicians and their allied social advocates and lobbyists often use old age poverty as the raison d’être to support the introduction of a universal old age social pension, which confuses aging with poverty.

Charlemagne’s Health in ‘Old Age’: Did It Affect Carolingian Military Strategy?

Mediaevistik ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-53
Author(s):  
Bernard S. Bachrach
Keyword(s):  
Old Age ◽  
The Political ◽  
Military Strategy ◽  
The West ◽  
Long Time

During the first thirty-three years of his reign as king of the Franks, i.e., prior to his coronation as emperor on Christmas day 800, Charlemagne, scholars generally agree, pursued a successful long-term offensive and expansionist strategy. This strategy was aimed at conquering large swaths of erstwhile imperial territory in the west and bringing under Carolingian rule a wide variety of peoples, who either themselves or their regional predecessors previously had not been subject to Frankish regnum.1 For a very long time, scholars took the position that Charlemagne continued to pursue this expansionist strategy throughout the imperial years, i.e., from his coronation on Christmas Day 800 until his final illness in later January 814. For example, Louis Halphen observed: “comme empereur, Charles poursuit, sans plus, l’oeuvre entamée avant l’an 800.”2 F. L. Ganshof, who also wrote several studies treating Charlemagne’s army, was in lock step with Halphen and observed: “As emperor, Charlemagne pursued the political and military course he had been following before 25 December 800.”3

The Use of Computers to Reduce Animal Experimentation in Pharmacology

1991 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 271-276
Author(s):  
Ian E. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Information Retrieval ◽  
Drug Design ◽  
Data Processing ◽  
Molecular Modelling ◽  
Teaching Methods ◽  
Animal Experimentation ◽  
Literature Searching ◽  
Research Activity ◽  
Teaching And Research

Computers are now used routinely as tools in pharmacology, particularly in the areas of teaching, data processing and collection, information retrieval and literature searching, and in molecular modelling and drug design. Their use in these areas has enhanced research activity and has extended and increased the availability of new teaching methods. Here, their impact on the use of animals in both teaching and research is discussed. It is concluded that computers may have some potential to reduce animal experimentation in the medium to long term, but their current use as alternatives to animals has made only a marginal impact on the total number of animals utilised for experimental purposes.

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