Long-term forecasting of characteristics of minimal river runoff discharges in Russia in case of possible climate change

2008 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 388-393 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. V. Viktorova ◽  
M. N. Gromova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

The «rainfall-runoff» system and its long-term fluctuations in the Siverskyi Donets River Basin (Ukraine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Current Period

<p>The current patterns estimation of the water regime under climate change is one of the most urgent tasks in Ukraine and the world. Such changes are determined by fluctuations in the main climatic characteristics - precipitation and air temperature, which are defined the value of evaporation. These parameters influence on the annual runoff distribution and long-term runoff fluctuations. In particular, the annual precipitation redistribution is reflected in the corresponding changes in the river runoff.<br>The assessment of the current state and nature of changes in precipitation and river runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was made by comparing the current period (1991-2018) with the period of the climatological normal (1961-1990).<br>In general, for this area, it was defined the close relationship between the amount of precipitation and the annual runoff. Against the background of insignificant (about 1%) increase of annual precipitation in recent decades, it was revealed their redistribution by seasons and separate months. There is a decrease in precipitation in the cold period (November-February). This causes (along with other factors) a decrease in the amount of snow and, accordingly, the spring flood runoff. There are frequent cases of unexpressed spring floods of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. The runoff during March-April (the period of spring flood within the Ukrainian part of the basin) decreased by almost a third.<br>The increase of precipitation during May-June causes a corresponding (insignificant) increase in runoff in these months. The shift of the maximum monthly amount of precipitation from May (for the period 1961-1990) to June (in the current period) is observed.<br>There is a certain threat to water supply in the region due to the shift in the minimum monthly amount of precipitation in the warm period from October to August. Compared with October, there is a higher air temperature and, accordingly, higher evaporation in August, which reduces the runoff. Such a situation is solved by rational water resources management of the basin. The possibility of replenishing water resources in the basin through the transfer runoff from the Dnieper (Dnieper-Siverskyi Donets channel) and the annual runoff redistribution in the reservoir system causes some increase in the river runoff of summer months in recent decades. This is also contributed by the activities of the river basin management structures, which control the maintenance water users' of minimum ecological flow downstream the water intakes and hydraulic structures in the rivers of the basin.<br>Therefore, in the period of current climate change, the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin has undergone significant changes, which is related to the annual precipitation redistribution and anthropogenic load on the basin.</p>

scholarly journals INFLUENCE OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATIONS ON THE RUN OF THE PUTIL RIVER

2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (2) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Yuriy Yushchenko ◽  
Olha Palanychko ◽  
Mykola Pasichnyk ◽  
Oleksandr Zakrevskyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Long Term Changes ◽  
Annual Distribution ◽  
The Village ◽  
Average Annual Precipitation

Research of precipitation, water balance of river basins, and the impact of precipitation on river runoff remain relevant in the context of global and regional climate change. Nowadays, many scientific research all over the world are devoted to the research of the problem of river runoff change under the influence of climatic factors. This kind of research has been developing strongly in Ukraine in recent decades. In particular, they concern the rivers of the Ukrainian Carpathians. The basin of the river Putyla to the line of the village of Putyla has an area of 181 km2. It is located in the south-eastern part of the Carpathian and characterized by a significant influence of warm rains on the formation of water runoff. The average annual runoff is characterized by rather complex patterns of change both in time and space. There are periodic, cyclical and unidirectional changes that occur under the influence of a complex system of factors. Climate is a major factor of the water change. Thus, the research of the average runoff of the Putila River has different aspects.To determine the effect of precipitation on river runoff, the method of comparing difference-integral curves of annual runoff and precipitation, as well as water-balance methods are used. Long-term changes and intra-annual distribution of precipitation, in particular rainfall, according to the observations of the meteorological station Selyatyn were analyzed. We constructed a differential integrated curve of modular coefficients of the average annual precipitation in the Putil district. It clearly reflects the cyclical changes in precipitation. Long-term changes and intra-annual distribution of water runoff in the Putyla River also were analyzed. During the observation period, periods of long-term fluctuations of the average annual precipitation were revealed. The average annual rainfall is 842.9 mm. The annual course is stable, ie the greatest amount of precipitation falls in the summer, when there are intense thunderstorms and showers, the least – in winter. Based on the data of hydrological observations, the average long-term value of water consumption according to GP Putila is 2.47 m3/s. We calculated the coefficient of variability (variation). The coefficient of variation for average costs is 0.21 (21%), and for precipitation – 0.7 (7%). The connection between precipitation and runoff was established. We have built a comprehensive schedule of annual distribution of precipitation and costs of the Putyla River for 2010. You can see that in the spring due to snowmelt there is an influx of water and there is a spring flood. It is known that 2010 in Putilsky district was full of water. The reduction of water consumption in the Putyla River in the cold period of the year with a decrease in precipitation is also observed. Graph of the dependence of the runoff of the Putyla River on precipitation in the village of Selyatyn showed a fairly clear relationship between the variable values of runoff and precipitation (the coefficient of variation is 0,66). The feeding structure of the Putyla River is mixed. The main share is occupied by rain, less - snow and groundwater. Key words: climate change, precipitation, runoff, rivers, long-term changes in runoff, intra-annual distribution of precipitation and runoff, Putyla river.

scholarly journals Management of the River Vedi Annual Runoff

2019 ◽  
Vol 75 ◽  
pp. 02003
Author(s):  
Varduhi Margaryan ◽  
Ksenia Raevich
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Mathematical Statistic ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Collect Work ◽  
Dynamic Changes ◽  
Geographic Mapping ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

The article presents the following tasks for the Vedi river: to study and analyze the main physical and geographical factors determining the runoff; to collect, work out, analyze and estimate the results of factual hydro-meteorological observations of the river basin; to discover and analyze the features of intra-year distribution of the river runoff basin; to study dynamic changes of the river runoff; to create the methods of long-term forecasting of monthly and annual runoff; to create a map of spatial distribution of the river runoff. For these purposes were used the data of hydrological and meteorological stations, points of basin observations and mathematical-statistic, geographic, mapping, analytical and correlation methods.

Characteristics of the Nujiang River runoff for a long term and its response to climate change

2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (S2) ◽  
pp. 156-163 ◽  
Author(s):  
WanCheng Zhang ◽  
ZiNiu Xiao ◽  
JianMeng Zheng ◽  
JuZhang Ren
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Nujiang River

Development of Social and Economic Forecasting and Ideas of A. Anchishkin

2013 ◽  
pp. 143-155
Author(s):  
A. Klepach ◽  
G. Kuranov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Planning ◽  
Special Role ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Economic Forecasting ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Working Out

The role of the prominent Soviet economist, academician A. Anchishkin (1933—1987), whose 80th birth anniversary we celebrate this year, in the development of ideas and formation of economic forecasting in the country at the time when the directive planning acted as a leading tool of economic management is explored in the article. Besides, Anchishkin’s special role is noted in developing a comprehensive program of scientific and technical progress, an information basis for working out long-term forecasts of the country’s development, moreover, his contribution to the creation of long-term forecasting methodology and improvement of the statistical basis for economic analysis and economic planning. The authors show that social and economic forecasting in the period after 1991, which has undertaken a number of functions of economic planning, has largely relied on further development of Anchishkin’s ideas, at the same time responding to new challenges for the Russian economy development during its entry into the world economic system.

2018 Nobel Economics Prize: Integrating Climate Change Measures into Sustainable Economic Growth

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Thi Thuc An ◽  
Dau Kieu Ngoc Anh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Environmental Issues ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Endogenous Growth Theory ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Sustainable Economic Growth

The 2018 Nobel Economics Prize was awarded to two American economists - William D. Nordhaus and Paul M. Romer - who designed methods for better assessing environmental issues and technological advances on growth. This year’s Laureates, Nordhaus was the first person to create an intergrated model to assess interactions between society and nature and Romer laid the foundation for what is now called endogenous growth theory. According to the Swedish Royal Academy of Sciences, these two macroeconomists’ research have helped “significantly broaden the scope of economic analysis by constructing models that explain how the market economy interacts with nature and knowledge” which integrates climate change measures into long-term sustainable economic growth. Keywords Nobel in economics, William D. Nordhaus, Paul M. Romer, climate change, endogenous growth theory, economic growth References [1] Y Vân (2018), “Lý lịch 'khủng' của hai nhà khoa học vừa giành giải Nobel Kinh tế 2018”, Vietnambiz, đăng tải ngày 08/10/2018, https://vietnambiz.vn/ly-lich-khung-cua-hai-nha-khoa-hoc-vua-gianh-giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-95776.html[2] Jonas O. Bergman, Rich Miller (2018), “Nordhaus, Romer Win Nobel for Thinking on Climate, Innovation”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-08/nordhaus-romer-win-2018-nobel-prize-in-economic-sciences [3] Antonin Pottier (2018), “Giải Nobel” William Nordhaus có thật sự nghiêm túc?”, Nguyễn Đôn Phước dịch, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/giai-nobel-william-nordhaus-co-that-su.html[4] Thăng Điệp (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018 về tay hai người Mỹ”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, http://vneconomy.vn/giai-nobel-kinh-te-2018-ve-tay-hai-nguoi-my-20181008185809239.htm[5] Lars P. Syll (2018), “Cuối cùng - Paul Romer cũng có được giải thưởng Nobel”, Huỳnh Thiện Quốc Việt dịch, đăng tải ngày 14/10/2018, http://www.phantichkinhte123.com/2018/10/cuoi-cung-paul-romer-cung-co-uoc-giai.html[6] Phương Võ (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế 2018: Chạm tới bài toán khó của thời đại”, đăng tải ngày 9/10/2018, https://nld.com.vn/thoi-su-quoc-te/nobel-kinh-te-2018-cham-toi-bai-toan-kho-cua-thoi-dai-20181008221734228.htm[7] Đông Phong (2018), “Nobel Kinh tế cho giải pháp phát triển bền vững và phúc lợi người dân”, đăng tải ngày 8/10/2018, https://news.zing.vn/nobel-kinh-te-cho-giai-phap-phat-trien-ben-vung-va-phuc-loi-nguoi-dan-post882860.html[8] Thanh Trúc (2018), “Giải Nobel kinh tế 2018: Thay đổi tư duy về biến đổi khí hậu”, https://tusach.thuvienkhoahoc.com/wiki/Gi%E1%BA%A3i_Nobel_kinh_t%E1%BA%BF_2018:_Thay_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_t%C6%B0_duy_v%E1%BB%81_bi%E1%BA%BFn_%C4%91%E1%BB%95i_kh%C3%AD_h%E1%BA%ADu[9] Cẩm Anh (2018), “Nobel kinh tế 2018: Lời giải cho tăng trưởng kinh tế bền vững”, đăng tải ngày 11/10/2018, http://enternews.vn/nobel-kinh-te-2018-loi-giai-cho-tang-truong-kinh-te-ben-vung-137600.html.

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