scholarly journals Econometric forecasting methods industrial sectors of the agro-industrial complex

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 20-28
Author(s):  
M.A. Kholodova ◽  
◽  
O.P. Shakhbazova ◽  

Aim. Development and justification of the calculation and analytical tool and adaptation of the methodology of its use to the laws of the development of individual branches of agricultural production and scientific interpretation of promising directions of their development. Materials and Methods. In the course of the work, econometric models were used, the main ones of which should be considered correlation and regression, including ridge regression, simulation and trend. The method of simulation modeling was supplemented by the method of expert assessments. Calculations of econometric models were carried out using the SPSS Statistics, Mathcad packages and the FAR-AREA 4.0 software tool. Results. Calculations using econometric models allowed us to develop and justify three author's scenarios for the development of sunflower production in the region: inertial, moderate and optimistic, in the context of the implementation of an export-oriented strategy in the agro-industrial complex for the period up to 2023. Conclusion. To implement the conditions of all three variants of the forecast of sunflower production, it is necessary to increase the use of elite seeds of domestic production and imported seeds in the structure of crops, as well as to ensure a positive dynamics of the introduction of plant protection products per 1 hectare of sown area, which in the future will contribute to the growth of crop yields. The forecast parameters of sunflower yield obtained by us in 2023 in the Rostov region for all three variants are realistic and correspond to the production conditions of the region.

2021 ◽  
Vol 915 (1) ◽  
pp. 012012
Author(s):  
N Bieliaieva ◽  
O Yu Sova ◽  
Ye Bobrov ◽  
N Antypenko

Abstract The article is about formulating a framework of actions for agrarian enterprises financial support provision on the base of researching managerial aspects of its implementation and its connection with nature management sphere. Analysis of the structure of agrarian enterprises financial resources sources proved the fact that the main emphasis of the financial resource’s formation is from their own sources. It is proved that financing the activity of agrarian enterprises is based on the specifics of its functioning and on the basis of it it’s determined evaluation indicators of agricultural enterprises strategic cost management effectiveness with the aim of indicating the structure of their financial resources sources. It is determined implementation impact of using principles of CALS in the agrarian enterprises management system. It is investigated open supply chain platform that covers several areas: financing agro bank; distribution of seeds, plant protection products and fertilizers; purchase of grain; logistics; agrotechnologies; providing IT and financial advice; export sales. Comprehensive assessment of the resource potential of the regional agro-industrial complex is calculated. Obviously, the activity of agrarian enterprises affects not only the production area but also the whole system of economics organization and functioning.


2020 ◽  
Vol 45 ◽  
pp. 21-33
Author(s):  
Natalia Pasichnyk ◽  
Serhii Lienkov ◽  
Sergey Shvorov ◽  
Larysa Komarova ◽  
Dmytro Komarchuk ◽  
...  

The article addresses applied aspects of using UAVs for monitoring winter wheat crops to assess the aftereffects of herbicides remaining on the culture of the predecessor. The issue has a local specificity related to inconsistencies of plant cultivation technologies and the inadequate study of the impact of modern plant protection products in domestic soil conditions. Restoring the crop yields is possible by timely identification of the causes of stress, but the time for decision-making is limited. This time can be reduced by state-of-the-art monitoring technologies applied at industrial scale. Laboratory studies using phyto cameras and spectral and spectral-spatial monitoring methods unambiguously testified to the stress caused by the aftereffect of herbicides, but did not allow to establish clear criteria. Therefore, we conducted field studies using UAV-mounted Slantrange complex and analyzing the DJI Matrice 200 to define the distribution of stress areas on the field. It was found that the reliability of monitoring data can increased computer data processing and computer training in the search for correlation links between the distribution of stress plants in the field and the implementation of technological operations, terrain topography, etc.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-272
Author(s):  
V.I. Belyaev ◽  
L.V. Sokolova ◽  
A.V. Matsyura

Increasing of crop yields mainly caused by modern technology, use of mineral fertilizers and plant protection products. Therefore, developing of zonal agricultural technologies will ensure the rational use of soil agroclimatic potential and increase grain production profitability. Because of economic needs, the broad use of mineral fertilizers, including liquids with minor nutrient elements was applied in Altai Krai. Therefore, the justification of doses and sorts of fertilizers and minor nutrient elements is especially relevant here. The aim of our study was to increase the efficiency of granular and liquid mineral fertilizers in the cultivation of spring wheat in the steppe zone of Altai Krai. The experiment was done in LLC “Russia” in Novichikhinsky district of Altai Krai. We presents seven fertilizer variants for cultivating the spring wheat using the No-Till technology in the steppe zone of Altai region. We also assessed the quality of sowing, soil water regime, yield structure and grain quality, and presented the general patterns of crop formation and technical and economic evaluation of these fertilizer variants.


Author(s):  
Andrey Vladimirovich Panfilov ◽  
Vladimir Petrovich Belogolovtsev ◽  
Valery Genadievih Popov ◽  
Lyusya Aleksandrovna Ter-Sarkisova ◽  
Evgeny Nikolaevich Martynov ◽  
...  

The article deals with the production of crops in agriculture using mineral nutrition. A fertilizer system that provides high-quality crop yields with the lowest cost per unit of production, steadily increases the fertility of irrigated soils. When developing the issue of crop planning, it is important to establish scientifically based doses of fertilizers. Stable yields of alfalfa are possible under the conditions of irrigation, fertilizers, plant protection products – a high crop of agriculture. An important stabilizing factor in crop irrigation is forest strips that allow you to maintain the timing of irrigation at wind speeds exceeding the permissible values for sprinklers. Optimal seeding rates and design of forest strips for obtaining high yields of alfalfa on irrigation have been established.


2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (9) ◽  
pp. 1674-1697
Author(s):  
O.P. Smirnova ◽  
A.O. Ponomareva

Subject. The article focuses on contemporary trends in the industrial and socio-economic development of Russia during the technological transformation of its sectors. Objectives. The study is an attempt to analyze what opportunities and difficulties may arise for the development of the industrial sectors in Russia. We also examine the dynamics of key development indicators of the industrial sectors, point out inhibitors of their competitiveness. Methods. The methodological framework comprises general methods of systems, structural-functional and comprehensive approaches to analyzing economic phenomena. We applied graphic, economic-statistical methods of research, conventional methods of grouping, comparison and generalization, and the logic, systems and statistical analysis. Results. We display how industrial sectors develop over time by type of economic activities. The article provides the rationale for structural rearrangements and further innovation-driven development of the industries. We display that the Russian industries technologically depend om imported production technologies. We substantiate the renewal of assets and technologies at industrial enterprises, and retain and develop human capital. Conclusions and Relevance. Primarily, the Russian economy should be digitalized as a source of the long-term economic growth. Notably, industrial enterprises should replace their linear production method with that of the circular economy and implement resource-saving innovative technologies. The State evidently acts as the leading driver of technological retrofitting of the industrial sector. If the State holds the reasonable and appropriate industrial policy at the federal and regional levels and configure its tools to ensure the modern approach to developing the industries in a competitive fashion, the industrial complex will successfully transform into the innovative economy.


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