Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in Madrid (Spain)

The World ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact ◽

Mortality Surveillance ◽

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing substantial increases in mortality across populations, potentially causing stagnation or decline in life expectancy. We explored this idea by examining the impact of excess mortality linked to the COVID-19 crisis on life expectancy in the region of Madrid (Spain). Using data from the Daily Mortality Surveillance System (MoMo), we calculated excess mortality (death counts) for the weeks 10th to 14th in 2020 using data on expected and observed mortality, assuming no further excess mortality during the rest of the year. The expected annual mortality variation was +6%, +21% and +25% among men aged under 65, between 65 and 74 and over 75, respectively, and +5%, +13%, and 18% for women, respectively. This excess mortality during weeks 10th to 14th resulted in a life expectancy at birth decline of 1.6 years among men and 1.1 years among women. These estimates confirm that Madrid and other severely hit regions in the world may face substantial life expectancy declines.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy in Madrid (Spain)

10.31235/osf.io/4w9bx ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Sergi Trias-Llimós ◽

Usama Bilal

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Surveillance System ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Daily Mortality ◽

The World ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact ◽

Mortality Surveillance ◽

Estimating the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: a population-level analysis

Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health ◽

10.1136/jech-2020-215505 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. jech-2020-215505

Author(s):

Jose Manuel Aburto ◽

Ridhi Kashyap ◽

Jonas Schöley ◽

Colin Angus ◽

John Ermisch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Prediction Interval ◽

Age Groups ◽

Population Level ◽

England And Wales ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact ◽

Excess Deaths

BackgroundDeaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10 of 2020, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending 20 November 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.MethodsWe estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the SD in age at death.ResultsThere have been 57 419 (95% prediction interval: 54 197, 60 752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for women and men relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by 5 months for both sexes.ConclusionQuantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provide a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to—or even fall below—the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.

The new automated daily mortality surveillance system in Portugal

Eurosurveillance ◽

10.2807/ese.15.13.19529-en ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 15 (13) ◽

Author(s):

P J Nogueira ◽

A Machado ◽

E Rodrigues ◽

B Nunes ◽

L Sousa ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Information Acquisition ◽

Surveillance System ◽

Warning System ◽

Automated System ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Fast Method ◽

Daily Mortality ◽

Public Health Action ◽

The Impact ◽

Mortality Surveillance

The experience reported in an earlier Eurosurveillance issue on a fast method to evaluate the impact of the 2003 heatwave on mortality in Portugal, generated a daily mortality surveillance system (VDM) that has been operating ever since jointly with the Portuguese Heat Health Watch Warning System. This work describes the VDM system and how it evolved to become an automated system operating year-round, and shows briefly its potential using mortality data from January 2006 to June 2009 collected by the system itself. The new system has important advantages such as: rapid information acquisition, completeness (the entire population is included), lightness (very little information is exchanged, date of death, age, sex, place of death registration). It allows rapid detection of impacts (within five days) and allows a quick preliminary quantification of impacts that usually took several years to be done. These characteristics make this system a powerful tool for public health action. The VDM system also represents an example of inter-institutional cooperation, bringing together organisations from two different ministries, Health and Justice, aiming at improving knowledge about the mortality in the population.

Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic with the World Mortality Dataset

eLife ◽

10.7554/elife.69336 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 10 ◽

Author(s):

Ariel Karlinsky ◽

Dmitry Kobak

Keyword(s):

New Zealand ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Objective Indicator ◽

Death Toll ◽

The World ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Expected Mortality ◽

The Impact ◽

Comparing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries or across time is difficult because the reported numbers of cases and deaths can be strongly affected by testing capacity and reporting policy. Excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to the expected mortality, is widely considered as a more objective indicator of the COVID-19 death toll. However, there has been no global, frequently-updated repository of the all-cause mortality data across countries. To fill this gap, we have collected weekly, monthly, or quarterly all-cause mortality data from 94 countries and territories, openly available as the regularly-updated World Mortality Dataset. We used this dataset to compute the excess mortality in each country during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that in several worst-affected countries (Peru, Ecuador, Bolivia, Mexico) the excess mortality was above 50% of the expected annual mortality. At the same time, in several other countries (Australia, New Zealand) mortality during the pandemic was below the usual level, presumably due to social distancing measures decreasing the non-COVID infectious mortality. Furthermore, we found that while many countries have been reporting the COVID-19 deaths very accurately, some countries have been substantially underreporting their COVID-19 deaths (e.g. Nicaragua, Russia, Uzbekistan), sometimes by two orders of magnitude (Tajikistan). Our results highlight the importance of open and rapid all-cause mortality reporting for pandemic monitoring.

Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

BMC Infectious Diseases ◽

10.1186/s12879-021-06026-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Guru Vasishtha ◽

Sanjay K. Mohanty ◽

Udaya S. Mishra ◽

Manisha Dubey ◽

Umakanta Sahoo

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Premature Mortality ◽

The State ◽

Multiple Sources ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

Working Age ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background The COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India. Method Using data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19. Result COVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand. Conclusion COVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

Inaction on climate change projected to reduce European life expectancy

10.31235/osf.io/ngtxr ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Mathew Hauer ◽

Alexis R Santos-Lozada

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

European Countries ◽

Project Climate Change ◽

The Cost ◽

The Impact ◽

Mortality Estimates

Climate change-related excess mortality estimates clearly demonstrate a dramatic impact on public health and human mortality. However, life expectancy at birth is more easily communicated and understood by the public. By properly situating climate change mortality within the contexts of life expectancy, we better represent the cost of climate change on longevity. In this paper, we convert excess mortality estimates due to increases in extreme weather from climate change into potential reductions in life expectancy at birth in thirty-one European countries. We project climate change extremes to reduce life expectancy at birth by 0.24 years for the average European country with differences in excess of 1.0 years in some countries by the end of the century. We only estimate the impact of mortality directly related to climate extremes, making our estimates conservative. Thus, the cost of inaction on climate change could approach, and likely to exceed, one year of life in some European countries.

Estimating the burden of COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in England and Wales: A population-level analysis

10.1101/2020.07.16.20155077 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

José Manuel Aburto ◽

Ridhi Kashyap ◽

Jonas Schöley ◽

Colin Angus ◽

John Ermisch ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Population Health ◽

Mortality Risk ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

England And Wales ◽

National Statistics ◽

The Impact ◽

Age And Sex ◽

Excess Deaths

AbstractBackgroundDeaths directly linked to COVID-19 infection may be misclassified, and the pandemic may have indirectly affected other causes of death. To overcome these measurement challenges, we estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality from week 10, when the first COVID-19 death was registered, to week 47 ending November 20, 2020 in England and Wales through an analysis of excess mortality.MethodsWe estimated age and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality with a systematic comparison of four different models using data from the Office for National Statistics. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the standard deviation in age at death.ResultsThere have been 57,419 (95% Prediction Interval: 54,197, 60,752) excess deaths in the first 47 weeks of 2020, 55% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 0.9 and 1.2 years for females and males relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period by five months for both sexes.ConclusionQuantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provides a more comprehensive picture of the burden of COVID-19 on mortality. Whether mortality will return to -or even fall below-the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place.Summary boxesWhat is already known on this topicCOVID-19 related deaths may be misclassified thereby inaccurately estimating the full impact of the pandemic on mortality. The pandemic may also have indirect effects on other causes due to changed behaviours, as well as the social and economic consequences resulting from its management. Excess mortality, the difference between observed deaths and what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful metric to quantify the overall impact of the pandemic on mortality and population health. Life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality assess the cumulative impact of the pandemic on population health.What this study addsWe examine death registration data from the Office for National Statistics from 2010 to week 47 (ending on November 20) in 2020 to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in England and Wales thus far. We estimate excess mortality risk by age and sex, and quantify the impact of excess mortality risk on excess deaths, life expectancy and lifespan inequality. During weeks 10 through 47 of 2020, elevated mortality rates resulted in 57,419 additional deaths compared with baseline mortality. Life expectancy at birth for females and males over the 47 weeks of 2020 was 82.6 and 78.7 years, with 0.9 and 1.2 years of life lost relative to the year 2019. Lifespan inequality, a measure of the spread or variation in ages at death, declined due to the increase of mortality at older ages.

Human costs of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the major epicentres in Italy

10.1553/populationyearbook2022.res2.1 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Simone Ghislandi ◽

Raya Muttarak ◽

Markus Sauerberg ◽

Benedetta Scotti

Keyword(s):

Life Expectancy ◽

Excess Mortality ◽

National Level ◽

Death Registration ◽

Substantial Impact ◽

Registration Data ◽

Human Costs ◽

The Impact ◽

Excess Deaths

Deaths from COVID-19 can be miscounted due to under-reporting and inaccurate death registration. Mortality is often reported at the national level, which can result in the underestimation of the true scale of the impact of the pandemic since outbreaks tend to be localised. This study exploits all-cause daily death registration data provided by the Italian Statistical Office (ISTAT) from 1 January to 31 October to estimate the excess mortality and the corresponding changes in life expectancy during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Focusing on the five most severely hit provinces in Italy (Bergamo, Brescia, Cremona, Lodi and Piacenza), we calculate the excess mortality in 2020 compared to the average mortality of the years 2015 to 2019. Moreover, we estimate the excess mortality in the first quadrimester of 2020, and the annual life expectancy at birth. The estimated excess deaths show that during this period, mortality was significantly higher than the official mortality statistics for COVID-19. According to our estimates for the first quadrimester, life expectancy in the five provinces declined by 5.4 to 8.1 for men and by 4.1 to 5.8 years for women. In addition, we find that annual life expectancy decreased by 2.4 to 4.1 years for men and by 1.9 to 2.8 years for women compared to the 2015–2019 average. Thus, we conclude that the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on population health in the hardest hit areas in Italy.

The World Mortality Dataset: Tracking excess mortality across countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Ariel Karlinsky ◽

Dmitry Kobak

Keyword(s):

Excess Mortality ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Objective Indicator ◽

Death Toll ◽

The World ◽

All Cause Mortality ◽

Order Of Magnitude ◽

The Impact ◽

Entire Dataset ◽

AbstractComparing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic between countries or across time is difficult because the reported numbers of cases and deaths can be strongly affected by testing capacity and reporting policy. Excess mortality, defined as the increase in all-cause mortality relative to the recent average, is widely considered as a more objective indicator of the COVID-19 death toll. However, there has been no central, frequently-updated repository of the all-cause mortality data across countries. To fill this gap, we have collected weekly, monthly, or quarterly all-cause mortality data from 77 countries, openly available as the regularly-updated World Mortality Dataset. We used this dataset to compute the excess mortality in each country during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found that in the worst-affected countries the annual mortality increased by over 50%, while in several other countries it decreased by over 5%, presumably due to lockdown measures decreasing the non-COVID mortality. Moreover, we found that while some countries have been reporting the COVID-19 deaths very accurately, many countries have been underreporting their COVID-19 deaths by an order of magnitude or more. Averaging across the entire dataset suggests that the world’s COVID-19 death toll may be at least 1.6 times higher than the reported number of confirmed deaths.

Calculating the Impact of Trade on Aspects of Human Development in Central Europe Using Data Envelopment Analysis

Ekonomika ◽

10.15388/ekon.2005.17421 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 70 ◽

Author(s):

Joseph M. Nowakowski

Keyword(s):

Data Envelopment Analysis ◽

Life Expectancy ◽

Human Development ◽

Central Europe ◽

Data Envelopment ◽

Use Of Resources ◽

Resource Endowment ◽

The World ◽

Using Data ◽

The Impact

Three equally weighted variables, material output life expectancy and literacy. comprise the widely used comprehensive measure of development known as the Human Development Index (HDI). Although the level of development for a society is constrained by its resource endowment traditional HDI calculations ignore this. Economic theory suggests that international trade leads to a more efficient use of resources and can contribute to economic development. This paper addresses the question of whether trade contributes only to material development, or whether it impacts life expectancy and literacy rates as well, taking into account differences in endowments and attitudes towards outcomes. The HDI values, with outcome flexibility. are calculated for a number of countries using data envelopment analysis, controlling for resource use. Then the impact of trade on different variables is considered. Economies in Central Europe or former Soviet republics, or both, are compared to the rest of the world to identify differences in performance and the influence, if any. of trade on performance. Relative to resource endowments, the subset of nations performs well relative to the rest of the world. Trade is seen to have varying influences in the two regions for certain performance variables.