scholarly journals Towards a predictive multi-phase model for alpine mass movements and process cascades

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Cicoira ◽  
Lars Blatny ◽  
Xingyue Li ◽  
Bertil Trottet ◽  
Johan Gaume
Keyword(s):  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Complex Events ◽  
Generate Process ◽  
Operational Models ◽  
Multi Phase ◽  
The Impact

Alpine mass movements can generate process cascades involving different materials including rock, ice, snow, and water. Numerical modelling is an essential tool for the quantification of natural hazards, but state-of-the-art operational models reach their limits when facing unprecedented or complex events. Here, we advance our predictive capabilities for process cascades on the basis of a three-dimensional numerical model, coupling fundamental conservation laws to finite strain elastoplasticity. Through its hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian character, our approach naturally reproduces fractures and collisions, erosion/deposition phenomena, and multi-phase interactions, which finally grant very accurate simulations of complex dynamics. Four benchmark simulations demonstrate the physical detail of the model and its applicability to real-world full-scale events, including various materials and ranging through four orders of magnitude in volume. In the future, our model can support risk-management strategies through predictions of the impact of potentially catastrophic cascading mass movements at vulnerable sites.

scholarly journals Local protection against mountain hazards – state of the art and future needs

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-99 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Holub ◽  
J. Hübl
Keyword(s):  
Management Strategies ◽  
Bedload Transport ◽  
Mass Movements ◽  
Rock Falls ◽  
Future Needs ◽  
Tangible Assets ◽  
Structural Measures ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
European Mountain ◽  
Final Inspection

Abstract. During the last decades, settlement activities increased in European mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, residential estates were extended into areas endangered by natural hazards such as mass movements. These settlements generally show a considerable vulnerability to tangible assets. Integral risk management strategies to reduce the vulnerability to tangible assets are presented for the assessment of such endangered areas. Conventional mitigation and local structural measures are discussed with respect to the necessary delimitation of endangered areas, the preparedness of people and possible financial prevention. According to different natural hazard processes (flash floods with and without bedload transport, debris flows, land slides, rock falls and avalanches) and various structural elements of buildings, a catalogue of local structural measures is presented with respect to occurring process impacts and protection objectives. Thereby, different local structural measures are classified and recommended according to a possible implementation for newly-erected buildings and for upgrading existing buildings, respectively. Based on these recommendations, future needs for a sustainable and comprehensive reduction of risk in settlement areas endangered by mass movements are outlined. Above all, this includes a prescription of building codes and the re-introduction of an obligatory final inspection of buildings.

scholarly journals A Hybrid Fuzzy System Dynamics Approach for Risk Analysis of AUV Operations

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-39
Author(s):  
Tzu Yang Loh ◽  
Mario P. Brito ◽  
Neil Bose ◽  
Jingjing Xu ◽  
Natalia Nikolova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fuzzy System ◽  
Autonomous Underwater Vehicles ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Operating Experience ◽  
Rapid Expansion ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
The Impact

The maturing of autonomous technology has fostered a rapid expansion in the use of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). To prevent the loss of AUVs during deployments, existing risk analysis approaches tend to focus on technicalities, historical data and experts’ opinion for probability quantification. However, data may not always be available and the complex interrelationships between risk factors are often neglected due to uncertainties. To overcome these shortfalls, a hybrid fuzzy system dynamics risk analysis (FuSDRA) is proposed. The approach utilises the strengths while overcoming limitations of both system dynamics and fuzzy set theory. Presented as a three-step iterative framework, the approach was applied on a case study to examine the impact of crew operating experience on the risk of AUV loss. Results showed not only that initial experience of the team affects the risk of loss, but any loss of experience in earlier stages of the AUV program have a lesser impact as compared to later stages. A series of risk control policies were recommended based on the results. The case study demonstrated how the FuSDRA approach can be applied to inform human resource and risk management strategies, or broader application within the AUV domain and other complex technological systems.

Tracking industry responsiveness to COVID-19 – what has happened and what lies ahead

2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 442
Author(s):  
Joelle Mitchell ◽  
Derrick O'Keeffe
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Initial Response ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Offshore Petroleum

This study will provide a longitudinal account of how the Australian offshore petroleum industry has responded to the COVID-19 pandemic, and how the response has evolved over time, and will provide a regulatory perspective on the future challenges arising from the changes that have occurred during the industry in response to the pandemic. Since March 2020, the National Offshore Safety and Environmental Management Authority has been actively collecting information about the approach taken by the offshore petroleum industry to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The initial response focused on infectious disease control measures, identifying strategies to prevent disease transmission on offshore facilities and to respond should an outbreak occur offshore. The next phase considered the potential consequences of the infection control measures on facility safety and integrity, including the impact of reduced personnel on board on safety critical maintenance activities and emergency response capability, assurance of competence profile requirements being sustained on facilities, the long-term consequences of delayed routine maintenance, supply chain disruptions and access to specialist workforce. It became apparent that a rapid recovery to pre-COVID-19 conditions was unlikely, and the impacts would likely continue for some time; and psychosocial and fatigue risk management strategies were explored. Data collection methods included: surveys of operators, workplace inspections, review of documents and records, interviews with members of the workforce and participation in industry working groups.

The Shades of Grey of Cyberbullying in Australian Schools

2011 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 176-181
Author(s):  
Wendy Goff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Duty Of Care ◽  
Current Form ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Use Of The Internet ◽  
The Impact

This article explores the effects of cyberbullying in relation to a school's duty of care. By examining the impact of cyberbullying through an increasingly common scenario, it becomes apparent that the strategies for Australian schools in maintaining their duty of care may be unclear and uncommunicated. Findings suggest that Australian law in its current form has failed to keep up with the advances in technology and does not effectively deal with the problems surrounding cyberbullying, both within society and within our schools. Such findings suggest that this lack of direction within Australia could be potentially detrimental to the perceptions of the value and use of the internet both within Australian schools and within Australian households, and support the need for global unity in the development of risk management strategies to deal with this growing phenomenon.

scholarly journals Perceptions of wheat producers towards risk and risk management strategies: A case study from Turkey

2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyit Hayran
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Wheat Market ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Sources ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACT: In this study, risk perception of wheat producers in Turkey was examined based on a case study conducted in Bitlis Province. The data set used in the study was obtained from 157 farmers randomly. Factor analysis was employed to classify risk sources and management strategies, and then multiple regression was used to investigate the relationship between farmers perceptions and some characteristic. Results of this study have shown that economic-based risks were perceived more strongly by farmers. Farmers’ also used more than one risk management strategy to minimize the impact of the risks they face. So, in order to ensure social and economic sustainability and predictability in wheat production and wheat market, the government should be considered preventive policy instruments and interventions to prevent fluctuations in input and output prices.

Shadowed by the corpse of war: Sport spectacles and the spirit of terrorism

2012 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 286-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Atkinson ◽  
Kevin Young
Keyword(s):  
Olympic Games ◽  
Salt Lake ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Salt Lake City ◽  
Mega Events ◽  
Sports Events ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Winter Olympic Games ◽  
Lake City ◽  
The Impact

Since the early 2000s, there has been a groundswell of research on terrorism and sports mega-events, including investigations into the impact of ‘9/11’ on fear and risk management strategies at high profile sports events. In this article, we re-examine the case of the Salt Lake City Winter Games of 2002 around Baudrillard’s (1995) concept of the ‘non-event’. We compare the (largely British and North American) mass mediation and discursive framing of terrorism at the 2002 Games with subsequent discourses interwoven into accounts of terrorism, fear and security at the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Athens and the 2006 Winter Olympic Games in Turin. Of principal interest is the global framing of sports mega-events as targets of terrorism and the ways in which such events become fabricated zones of risk. To understand why there is a lingering media construction of the sports mega-event as an imagined target (and, in many ways, pre-constructed victim) of terrorism, we draw centrally on Baudrillard’s work (1995, 2001, 2002a, 2002b). Specifically, we employ Baudrillard’s concepts of the hyperreal and the non-event as a means of exploring terrorism’s relationship with sport, and the potential usage of such theoretical ideas in the sociology of sport and physical culture more broadly.

scholarly journals Bio-economic modelling of decisions under yield and price risk for suckler cow farms

2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 64 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Briner ◽  
Niklaus Lehmann ◽  
Robert Finger
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Economic Modelling ◽  
Gross Margin ◽  
Farm Model ◽  
Weather Risk ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Margin Insurance ◽  
On Farm ◽  
The Impact

Applying a bio-economic whole-farm model, we assess the impact of price and weather risk as well as different risk-management strategies on the variability of the gross margin in Swiss suckler cow production. For instance, flexible adjustment of fodder composition, feed stocks, or land use as well as gross margin insurance are considered. Our results show that assuming moderate risk aversion farms’ gross margin variability is rather high, with a coefficient of variation of gross margin ranging from 19 to 21%. Accounting for on-farm risk-management strategies we find that gross margin variability can be reduced significantly, causing only low reductions of average gross margin levels. We find that the use of maize as a switch crop and a market for the trade of roughage are the most efficient risk-management strategies. Our results also indicate that gross margin insurance is not attractive for farmers. Thus in particular promoting better access to markets for feedstuffs provides a valuable opportunity for farmers to manage gross margin risks.

scholarly journals A method to use proxy data of runoff-related impacts for the evaluation of a model mapping intense storm runoff hazard: application to the railway context

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 947-966 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Braud ◽  
Lilly-Rose Lagadec ◽  
Loïc Moulin ◽  
Blandine Chazelle ◽  
Pascal Breil
Keyword(s):  
Evaluation Method ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Hazard Mapping ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Railway Line ◽  
Susceptibility Maps ◽  
Intense Storm ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The IRIP method, or “indicator of intense pluvial runoff” in English, is a geomatics method that allows mapping the susceptibility of a territory to surface runoff and that provides three maps of susceptibility to the generation, transfer and accumulation of runoff. It is based on the combination of binary maps that represent the impact of a given factor (favourable or not favourable) on runoff. These factors are summed up to provide susceptibility maps for runoff with levels ranging from 0 to 5. To be used for risk prevention, the quality and limitations of the produced maps must be assessed. However, direct runoff data are very scarce and not available everywhere in a territory. Proxy data of impacts related to runoff can provide information useful for the evaluation of the IRIP maps. However, both pieces of information cannot be compared directly, and a specific methodology to compare susceptibility maps and proxy data must be proposed. This paper presents such a method, which accounts for the hazard level, the vulnerability of the study area and possible mitigation actions taken to reduce the risk. The evaluation method is assessed using a comprehensive database of runoff-related impacts collected on an 80 km railway line in Normandy (north of France) and covering the whole 20th century. The results show that the evaluation method is robust, relevant and generic enough for evaluating a non-quantitative method of runoff hazard mapping using localized runoff-related proxy data. In addition, the good performance of the IRIP model in the case study confirms that the susceptibility maps produced by the IRIP model provide relevant information related to runoff and that they can be used to design risk management strategies, as illustrated in the railway context.

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