scholarly journals Bounded Rationality and Risk Management in Thermal Soaring

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Bird ◽  
Daniel Sazhin ◽  
Jack Langelaan

Awareness and management of the risk of failing to encounter lift is fundamental to thermal soaring. When the weather changes or a thermal is missed the pilot may be exposed to a greater risk of landing out. In these situations the pilot may need to alter strategies in order to minimize risk exposure at the expense of speed, often referred to as "gear shifting." In this work, we explore several models to explain why small changes in the environment can cause large changes in risk exposure, requiring this shifting. We also examine several flight strategies in simulation to define the relative risk and reward for adopting various levels of risk tolerance and for failing to "shift gears" when the risk of landing out increases.

Author(s):  
Alejandra María Díaz-Tamayo

Abstract Over the years, Colombia has faced disaster situations that have generated changes in risk management models. These situations have brought suffering, destruction, and loss of human life, but have also served as lessons to develop procedures aimed at minimizing the risks caused by the presence of hazards. The objective of this article is to provide general evidence-based guidelines for formulating disaster risk management plans for each of the 3 action processes: risk awareness, risk reduction, and disaster management in Colombia. These plans can be achieved by preparing responses to different emergencies, which arise from threats in each of the possible scenarios, and are adverse events that alter the normal functioning of entities and communities. The implementation of these prevention strategies will allow communities to respond effectively to emergencies and recover rapidly in the face of adversity.


2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 98-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. V. Shamin

The article is devoted to the optimization of the processes of organization and management of international megaprojects based on the formation of a risk management system.Currently, the implementation efficiency of megaprojects remains low due to the emergence of many risks at various stages of project implementation.In this connection, it is proposed to form an integrated risk management system, which implies a three-stage structure for introducing the 6 element risk management system into the project life cycle, into the main project management processes.This article substantiates the need to form a risk management system in three stages in accordance with the key elements of a risk management system: (1) Planning – the block «Objectives and environment of the project»; (2) Approval of the project – the blocks «Identification», «Classification», «Assessment of risks and risk tolerance», «Risk management plan»; (3) Monitoring and control – the block «Control and monitoring of risks».Thus, the proposed integrated risk management system provides: continuity of the risk management process based on the audit of the RMS; the ability to adjust RMS at the stage of forecasting a risk event; possibility of scenario modeling for forecasting risk reduction potential; risk management program, formed by current risks in order to increase the attractiveness of the mega-project for the investor.It is also proposed to introduce an audit of risk management processes and procedures based on an adapted methodology for the following components of the risk management system: defining events and setting goals; the internal environment of the organization; organization risk assessment; risk control tools; responding to risks; communications and information; risk monitoring.This technique allows you to take into account risks not only at the stage of project development, but also during its implementation, which ensures its feasibility, as well as an audit algorithm for risk management systems of a megaproject is developed and recommendations for improving the RMS through this tool are proposed.


2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Caroline Njagi ◽  
Dr. Amos Njuguna

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the extent to which insurance companies in Kenya have adopted ERM process, and then to assess the maturity, challenges and strategies in the implementation of this process.Materials and methods: The research design adopted for the study is descriptive research. The researcher conducted a survey on the 49 insurance companies of Kenya to encapsulate the factors that are relevant in articulating the extent of adoption of ERM and the level of maturity. A sample of 196 respondents was selected from a population of 245 respondents. The study used quantitative and qualitative methods of data analysis. Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 20 program was used for analysis. The results were presented using tables and pie charts. Similarly, qualitative data was summarized and categorized according to common themes and presentedin continuous prose form.Results: The study concluded that organizational related challenges hindered implementation of ERM programs. Results revealed that inadequate application of the risk management framework, ambiguity in roles and responsibilities in risk management, complexities in risk measurement, lack of embodiment of ERM in organizational culture, difficulty in risk quantification, linking risk information to strategic decision making, ensuring that all decisions remain within the organization’s risk tolerance, proactively identifying current and emerging risks, cost and budgetary constraints, misalignment of the risk and business operating models, risk management not seen as a priority by top management and inadequate information to make risk-based decisions hindered implementation of ERM frameworks among insurance firms in Kenya. The findings imply that organization related challenges have a significant effect on ERM implementation.Recommendations: The study recommends that there should be better organizational strategies to help improve implementation of ERM programs. It was found that building a strong risk culture, engaging consultants, building a dedicated ERM function, committed board of directors and top management, developing risk appetite statement, appointment of a Chief Risk Officer (CRO) and availing ERM budgets improved the implementation of ERM programs. Key words: enterprise risk management, adoption, maturity


Author(s):  
Okan Acar ◽  
Aslı Beyhan Acar

Risk management as a very rapid emerging subject has been affected by several happenings in the world. There are many studies covering risk definition, risk types, and risk management, plus there are many contemporary approaches in order to calculate the risk incurred by the companies due to their transactions. In the modern business life, since the transactions have become very fast and their risk exposure increases, the companies, especially the financial institutions, started to use new techniques to measure the probable effects of the risks that they have taken while undertaking the transactions. In this chapter, the authors show two techniques as the contemporary approaches to risk management. These are operations research and statistics. They know that these two concepts are very detailed and sophisticated tools, which require software for better results. The banks have been investing in these solutions, and they are designing new organizations to handle these issues. Thus, the authors introduce these techniques very briefly with using some banking practices for better understanding.


Author(s):  
Corey Hirsch ◽  
Jean-Noel Ezingeard

Achieving alignment of risk perception, assessment, and tolerance among and between management teams within an organisation is an important foundation upon which an effective enterprise information security management strategy can be built .We argue the importance of such alignment based on information security and risk assessment literature. Too often lack of alignment dampens clean execution of strategy, eroding support during development and implementation of information security programs . We argue that alignment can be achieved by developing an understanding of enterprise risk management plans and actions, risk perceptions and risk culture. This is done by examining context, context and process. We illustrate this through the case of LeCroy Corp., illustrating how LeCroy managers perceive risk in practice, and how LeCroy fosters alignment in risk perception and execution of risk management strategy as part of an overall information security program. We show that in some circumstances diversity of risk tolerance profiles aide a management teams’ function. In other circumstances, variances lead to dysfunction. We have uncovered and quantified nonlinearities and special cases in LeCroy executive management’s risk tolerance profiles.


2018 ◽  
Vol 44 (7) ◽  
pp. 902-918 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Sheedy ◽  
Martin Lubojanski

Purpose Risk management is now considered the responsibility of all financial services professionals, not just senior leaders or risk specialists. Very little is known about the role of staff in risk management, so the purpose of this paper is to, first, clarify what constitutes “desirable” risk management behaviour by financial services staff based on the practitioner and regulatory literature. Based on this understanding, the authors analyse the characteristics of those who are most likely to display such behaviour. Design/methodology/approach The paper analyses some 36,000 survey responses across ten banks headquartered in Anglo countries. Findings Desirable risk management behaviour at the employee level includes compliance but goes well beyond mere compliance to include speaking up, thoughtful engagement with and accountability for the risk management framework. The authors find a significant negative association between individual risk tolerance and desirable risk management behaviour. Older workers as well as those with greater seniority are more likely to report desirable risk management behaviour. The link between female gender and risk management behaviour is not supported after controlling for individual risk attitudes. The authors provide evidence that females who succeed in financial services do not conform to traditional female stereotypes. Practical implications Findings suggest financial institutions should hire/retain more older workers and those with lower risk tolerance to improve risk management. Hiring more females, however, is not likely to lead to better risk management. Originality/value The paper is the first to investigate risk management behaviour in financial services staff. The research exploits a unique, difficult to obtain data set.


2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 140-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abed G. Rabbani ◽  
John E. Grable ◽  
Wookjae Heo ◽  
Liana Nobre ◽  
Stephen Kuzniak

This study investigated the degree to which the financial risk tolerance of individuals was influenced by volatility in the U.S. equities market during the period of the Great Recession. Based on data from a valid and reliable risk tolerance scale and return information for the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 index, there does appear to be some associations between daily market volatility and changes in risk tolerance scores. Changes in risk tolerance scores were also calculated using short- and intermediate-term volatility measures. The relationships do vary, however, with evidence supporting the relationship only 64% of the time. Overall, changes in financial risk tolerance scores were found to be modest. Although not following hypothesized directions at all times, risk tolerance was not influenced by the length of volatility measurements.


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