scholarly journals Pre-commitment and Updating Beliefs

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Charles R. Ebersole
Keyword(s):  
Hindsight Bias ◽  
Confirmation Bias ◽  
Verbal Ability ◽  
Motivated Cognition ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Final Study ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

Beliefs help individuals make predictions about the world. When those predictions are incorrect, it may be useful to update beliefs. However, motivated cognition and biases (notably, hindsight bias and confirmation bias) can instead lead individuals to reshape interpretations of new evidence to seem more consistent with prior beliefs. Pre-committing to a prediction or evaluation of new evidence before knowing its results may be one way to reduce the impact of these biases and facilitate belief updating. I first examined this possibility by having participants report predictions about their performance on a challenging anagrams task before or after completing the task. Relative to those who reported predictions after the task, participants who pre-committed to predictions reported predictions that were more discrepant from actual performance and updated their beliefs about their verbal ability more (Studies 1a and 1b). The effect on belief updating was strongest among participants who directly tested their predictions (Study 2) and belief updating was related to their evaluations of the validity of the task (Study 3). Furthermore, increased belief updating seemed to not be due to faulty or shifting memory of initial ratings of verbal ability (Study 4), but rather reflected an increase in the discrepancy between predictions and observed outcomes (Study 5). In a final study (Study 6), I examined pre-commitment as an intervention to reduce confirmation bias, finding that pre-committing to evaluations of new scientific studies eliminated the relation between initial beliefs and evaluations of evidence while also increasing belief updating. Together, these studies suggest that pre-commitment can reduce biases and increase belief updating in light of new evidence.

Should Attitudinal Views toward Innovation Development Play a Role in Policy in Peripheral EU Regions?: New Evidence from Vouchers Program in Northern Ireland

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 121-137
Author(s):  
Sean M. McDonald ◽  
Remi C. Claire ◽  
Alastair H. McPherson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Northern Ireland ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Regional Economic Development ◽  
Innovation Development ◽  
Regional Economic ◽  
Eu Regions ◽  
Future Policy ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

The impact and effectiveness of policies to support collaboration for Research & Development (R&D) and Innovation is critical to determining the success of regional economic development. (O’Kane, 2008) The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the level of success of the Innovation Vouchers Program operated by Invest Northern Ireland (Invest NI) from 2009 to 2013 and address if attitudinal views towards innovation development should play in a role in future policy design in peripheral EU regions. 

Does Board Independence Increase Firm Value? Evidence from Closed-End Funds

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
Matthew E. Souther
Keyword(s):  
Instrumental Variables ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Board Independence ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Closed End Funds ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

Researchers disagree about the impact of board independence on firm value. The disagreement generally stems from the endogenous nature of board appointments. I add new evidence to this discussion by using a sample of closed-end funds to document the value-enhancing effects of independent boards. Using cross-sectional, difference-in-differences, and instrumental variables techniques, I address these endogeneity concerns and find consistent evidence that board independence is associated with higher firm value.

scholarly journals When and why do people act on flawed science? Effects of anecdotes and prior beliefs on evidence-based decision-making

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey L. Michal ◽  
Yiwen Zhong ◽  
Priti Shah
Keyword(s):  
Educational Interventions ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Learning Experiment ◽  
Apply Research ◽  
Evidence Quality ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Learning Interventions

AbstractToday’s citizens are expected to use evidence, frequently presented in the media, to inform decisions about health, behavior, and public policy. However, science misinformation is ubiquitous in the media, making it difficult to apply research appropriately. Across two experiments, we addressed how anecdotes and prior beliefs impact readers’ ability to both identify flawed science and make appropriate decisions based on flawed science in media articles. Each article described the results of flawed research on one of four educational interventions to improve learning (Experiment 1 included articles about having a tidy classroom and exercising while learning; Experiment 2 included articles about using virtual/augmented reality and napping at school). Experiment 1 tested the impact of a single anecdote and found no significant effect on either participants’ evidence evaluations or decisions to implement the learning interventions. However, participants were more likely to adopt the more plausible intervention (tidy classroom) despite identifying that it was unsupported by the evidence, suggesting effects of prior beliefs. In Experiment 2, we tested whether this intervention effect was driven by differences in beliefs about intervention plausibility and included two additional interventions (virtual reality = high plausible, napping = low plausible). We again found that participants were more likely to implement high plausible than low plausible interventions, and that evidence quality was underweighed as a factor in these decisions. Together, these studies suggest that evidence-based decisions are more strongly determined by prior beliefs than beliefs about the quality of evidence itself.

scholarly journals Optimistic amnesia: how online and offline processing shape belief updating and memory biases in immediate and long-term optimism biases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ziqing Yao ◽  
Xuanyi Lin ◽  
Xiaoqing Hu
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Prior Beliefs ◽  
Belief Updating ◽  
Estimation Task ◽  
Memory Biases ◽  
Brain Potentials ◽  
Adverse Life Event ◽  
Offline Processing

Abstract When people are confronted with feedback that counters their prior beliefs, they preferentially rely on desirable rather than undesirable feedback in belief updating, i.e. an optimism bias. In two pre-registered EEG studies employing an adverse life event probability estimation task, we investigated the neurocognitive processes that support the formation and the change of optimism biases in immediate and 24 h delayed tests. We found that optimistic belief updating biases not only emerged immediately but also became significantly larger after 24 h, suggesting an active role of valence-dependent offline consolidation processes in the change of optimism biases. Participants also showed optimistic memory biases: they were less accurate in remembering undesirable than desirable feedback probabilities, with inferior memories of undesirable feedback associated with lower belief updating in the delayed test. Examining event-related brain potentials (ERPs) revealed that desirability of feedback biased initial encoding: desirable feedback elicited larger P300s than undesirable feedback, with larger P300 amplitudes predicting both higher belief updating and memory accuracies. These results suggest that desirability of feedback could bias both online and offline memory-related processes such as encoding and consolidation, with both processes contributing to the formation and change of optimism biases.

Developing trauma-informed care: using psychodynamic concepts to help staff respond to the attachment needs of survivors of trauma

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma Rye ◽  
Joanna Anderson ◽  
Max Pickard
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Verbal Ability ◽  
Training Programme ◽  
Care Staff ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trauma Informed Care ◽  
Adults With Learning Disabilities ◽  
Trauma Informed ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Many referrals to our mental health of learning disability service focus on concerns about behaviours that present risks to the referred person and to those around them, including support workers. If the referred person has good verbal ability, psychological therapy may be requested and offered, but the person may find it too difficult to engage for a number of reasons. Even when they do engage in therapy, the authors recognise the importance of helping staff better understand their attachment needs. This paper aims to demonstrate an innovative approach to helping staff provide Trauma-Informed Care (TIC). Design/methodology/approach The authors developed a training programme for support workers using psychodynamic concepts, such as splitting, transference and counter-transference, to help them develop insight into the processes that get enacted during their work. In this paper the authors have generally used the term “care staff”, recognising that an important aspect of the role of those staff is to provide care within an attachment framework; as well as support to maximise independence. Findings The feedback from staff who have attended has been very positive, both at the time and later. Staff who have attended have talked to multidisciplinary colleagues about the impact their learning has had on their ability to work with service users who present great challenges, in the context of their trauma histories. Originality/value The importance of providing TIC is gaining traction across varied settings. The authors are in the process of developing both qualitative and quantitative research programmes to evaluate this approach to increasing TIC for adults with learning disabilities, reducing staff burn out and placement breakdown.

scholarly journals Institutional Quality and Sustainable Development of Industries’ Exports: Evidence from China

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 4173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feifei Wu ◽  
Xinyu Yan
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Continuous Release ◽  
Comparative Advantages ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence

The knowledge about the relations between domestic institutional quality and the sustainable development of exports in emerging markets remains limited, since most research into the relations between the institutional environment and the sustainable development of exports has been conducted in developed market economies, especially in those of North America and Europe. With dynamic changes in the institutional environment of emerging countries over the years, this paper provides a novel perspective for investigating the relations above. This is the first paper to investigate the impact of institutional quality on the sustainable development of industries’ exports in emerging countries from a comprehensive perspective of multiple institutional environments and multi-dimensional industries’ heterogeneity. On the basis of defining institutional quality and industry heterogeneity, this paper explores the underlying mechanisms of institutional quality affecting sustainable development of industries’ exports and conducts empirical analyses by using the data from China’s 20 industries’ exports to 117 countries for the period of 1996–2011. The results show that: (a) Industries with higher degrees of financial dependence or higher product technical complexities have export comparative advantages in better financial environments; (b) Industries with higher research and development (R&D) intensity or a higher concentration of intermediate inputs have export comparative advantages in better legal environments; (c) The differences in the level of financial development or in the efficiency of legal system would influence the effects of interactions between institutional quality and industry heterogeneity on the sustainable development of industries’ exports. The present paper provides new evidence that institutional quality does promote the sustainable development of industries’ exports in emerging countries. These results indicate that exports of heterogeneous industries in emerging economies are an adaptive response to the specific institutional environment, as well as a continuous release of institutional dividends with the improvement of the institutional environment.

scholarly journals Response to Comment on “The impact of past vaccination coverage and immunity on pertussis resurgence”

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (472) ◽  
pp. eaau9627
Author(s):  
Matthieu Domenech de Cellès ◽  
Aaron A. King ◽  
Pejman Rohani
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
The Impact ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Acellular Vaccine

We present new evidence that the immunity conferred against pertussis by the DTaP acellular vaccine wanes more slowly than widely believed.

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