scholarly journals Public Election Polls are 95% Confident but only 60% Accurate

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya Kotak ◽  
Don A Moore
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
Margin Of Error ◽  
Systemic Error ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Election Polls ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

In this paper, we investigate the calibration of public election polls.We present a definition of poll accuracy based on whether the poll’s margin of error spans the true election outcome. Most polls provide a 95% confidence interval along with the poll results, we sought to find whether their accuracy is as high as their confidence lev-els claim. Furthermore, we also wanted to see how this accuracy evolves over time as polls are conducted closer to the actual election.We find that even a week away from the election, polls claiming95% confidence are only accurate 60% of the time. Moreover, we conclude that these polls would in fact need margins of error twice their reported width in order to be truly 95% confident. This pro-vides a unique insight into the adjustment polls need over time and quantifies the systemic error polls contain beyond what the traditional statistics captures.

Introduction

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
Greg Fisher ◽  
John E. Wisneski ◽  
Rene M. Bakker
Keyword(s):  
Case Illustration ◽  
Form Part ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

This chapter lays out the context for the book. It highlights how the context in which businesses operate has changed over time and why strategy is so important for organizations in today’s environment. Building off that it describes what we offer in this book. Part I of the book provides insight into fundamental strategy concepts and ideas, including a definition of strategy and an overarching approach to strategy. Part II of the book outlines a series of tools that could and should form part of a manager’s strategy toolbox; each tool is described detail including an overview of the tool, the steps to practically apply the tool and a case illustration of each tool.

The Distinction between [P] and [S]

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Galen Strawson
Keyword(s):  
Personal Identity ◽  
Radical Change ◽  
Legal Responsibility ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time

This chapter examines the difference between John Locke's definition of a person [P], considered as a kind of thing, and his definition of a subject of experience of a certain sophisticated sort [S]. It first discusses the equation [P] = [S], where [S] is assumed to be a continuing thing that is able to survive radical change of substantial realization, as well as Locke's position about consciousness in relation to [P]'s identity or existence over time as [S]. It argues that Locke is not guilty of circularity because he is not proposing consciousness as the determinant of [S]'s identity over time, but only of [S]'s moral and legal responsibility over time. Finally, it suggests that the terms “Person” and “Personal identity” pull apart, in Locke's scheme of things, but in a perfectly coherent way.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE JUDICIAL DEFINITION OF MATERIALITY

1990 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 113-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
LuAnn Bean ◽  
Deborah W. Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Court Cases ◽  
Accounting Profession ◽  
Current Trends ◽  
Course Of Action ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time

Determining what should be considered a material item has been a problem for both the accounting profession and the courts. By reviewing the court cases involving the issue of materiality, the authors have determined where differences in the materiality standard as applied by the courts exist. The judicial definition of materiality has developed over time, and current trends with important variations are observed. Based upon the authors' analysis, the following judicial definition of materiality, with its possible variations, is suggested: Would the reasonable (or speculative) investor (or layman) consider important (or be influenced by) this information in determining his course of action?

Decision Processes and Value Endogeneity

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. March
Keyword(s):  
Decision Processes ◽  
Hard Problem ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time ◽  
What Matters

Humans use reasons to shape and justify choices. In the process, trade-offs seem essential and often inevitable. But trade-offs involve comparisons, which are problematic both across values and especially over time. Reducing disparate values to a common metric (especially if that metric is money) is often problematic and unsatisfactory. Critically, it is not that values just shape choices, but that choices themselves shape values. This endogeneity of values makes an unconditional normative endorsement of modern decision-theoretic rationality unwise. This is a hard problem and there is no escaping the definition of good values, that is, those that make humans better. This removes the wall between economics and philosophy. If we are to adopt and enact this perspective, then greater discourse and debate on what matters and not just what counts will be useful and even indispensable.

Dualities, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizational Life

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Systems ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Organizational Studies ◽  
Organizational Life ◽  
Organizational Processes ◽  
Organization Studies ◽  
Process Studies ◽  
Convergence And Divergence ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

Organizational contradictions and process studies offer interwoven and complementary insights. Studies of dialectics, paradox, and dualities depict organizational contradictions that are oppositional as well as interrelated such that they persistently morph and shift over time. Studies of process often examine how contradictions fuel emergent, dynamic systems and stimulate novelty, adaptation, and transformation. Drawing from rich conversations at the Eighth International Symposium on Process Organization Studies, the contributors to this volume unpack these relationships in more depth. The chapters explore three main, connected themes through both conceptual and empirical studies, including (1) offering insight into how process theorizing advances understandings of organizational contradictions; (2) shedding light on how dialectics, paradoxes, and dualities fuel organizational processes that affect persistence and transformation; and (3) exploring the convergence and divergence of dialectics, paradox, and dualities lenses. Taken together, this book offers key insights in order to inform persistent, contradictory dynamics in organizations and organizational studies.

The Oxford Handbook of the Brazilian Economy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Direct Investment ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Iron Ore ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Economic Importance ◽  
Closed Economy ◽  
Current Characteristics ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Contemporary Context ◽  
Over Time

Brazil constitutes a globally vital but troubled economy. It accounts for the largest GDP in Latin America and ranks among the world’s largest exporters of critical commodities including iron ore, soya, coffee, and beef. In recent years Brazil’s global economic importance has been magnified by a surge in both outward and inward foreign direct investment. This has served to further internationalize what has been historically a relatively closed economy. The purpose of this Handbook is to offer real insight into the Brazil’s economic development in contemporary context, understanding its most salient characteristics and analyzing its structural features across various dimensions. At a more granular level, this volume accomplishes the following tasks. First, it provides an understanding of the economy’s evolution over time and the connection of its current characteristics to this evolution. Second, it analyzes Brazil’s broader place in the global economy, and considers the ways in which this role has changed, and is likely to change, over coming years. Third, reflecting contemporary concerns, the volume offers an understanding, not only of how one of the world’s key economies has developed and transformed itself, but also of the ways in which this process has yet to be completed. The volume thus analyzes the current challenges facing the Brazilian economy and the kinds of issues that need to be tackled for these to be addressed.

scholarly journals Are We Closer to International Consensus on the Term ‘Food Literacy’?: A Systematic Scoping Review of Its Use in the Academic Literature (1998–2019)

Nutrients ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 2006
Author(s):  
Courtney Thompson ◽  
Jean Adams ◽  
Helen Anna Vidgen
Keyword(s):  
Scoping Review ◽  
International Agency ◽  
Original Research ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Food Literacy ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Review Articles ◽  
Article Type ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time

(1) Background: The term ‘food literacy’ has gained momentum globally; however, a lack of clarity around its definition has resulted in inconsistencies in use of the term. Therefore, the objective was to conduct a systematic scoping review to describe the use, reach, application and definitions of the term ‘food literacy’ over time. (2) Methods: A search was conducted using the PRISMA-ScR guidelines in seven research databases without any date limitations up to 31 December 2019, searching simply for use of the term ‘food literacy’. (3) Results: Five hundred and forty-nine studies were included. The term ‘food literacy’ was used once in 243 articles (44%) and mentioned by researchers working in 41 countries. Original research was the most common article type (n = 429, 78%). Food literacy was published across 72 In Cites disciplines, with 456 (83%) articles from the last 5 years. In articles about food literacy (n = 82, 15%), review articles were twice as prevalent compared to the total number of articles (n = 10, 12% vs. n = 32, 6%). Fifty-one different definitions of food literacy were cited. (4) Conclusions: ‘Food literacy’ has been used frequently and broadly across differing article types and disciplines in academic literature internationally. However, agreement on a standardised definition of food literacy endorsed by a peak international agency is needed in order to progress the field.

scholarly journals Detecting bursty terms in computer science research

2019 ◽  
Vol 122 (1) ◽  
pp. 681-699 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Tattershall ◽  
G. Nenadic ◽  
R. D. Stevens
Keyword(s):  
Computer Science ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Detection Algorithm ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Computer Science Research ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Over Time

AbstractResearch topics rise and fall in popularity over time, some more swiftly than others. The fastest rising topics are typically called bursts; for example “deep learning”, “internet of things” and “big data”. Being able to automatically detect and track bursty terms in the literature could give insight into how scientific thought evolves over time. In this paper, we take a trend detection algorithm from stock market analysis and apply it to over 30 years of computer science research abstracts, treating the prevalence of each term in the dataset like the price of a stock. Unlike previous work in this domain, we use the free text of abstracts and titles, resulting in a finer-grained analysis. We report a list of bursty terms, and then use historical data to build a classifier to predict whether they will rise or fall in popularity in the future, obtaining accuracy in the region of 80%. The proposed methodology can be applied to any time-ordered collection of text to yield past and present bursty terms and predict their probable fate.

scholarly journals What is professionalism in occupational therapy? A concept analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 000841742199437
Author(s):  
Alexandra Lecours ◽  
Nancy Baril ◽  
Marie-Josée Drolet
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Therapy ◽  
Professional Identity ◽  
Cultural Influences ◽  
Occupational Therapists ◽  
Concept Analysis ◽  
Operational Definition ◽  
Analysis Design ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Extract Information

Background. Professionalism has been given different definitions over time. These are, commonly theoretical and difficult to operationalize. Purpose. This study aimed to provide an operational definition of the concept of professionalism in occupational therapy. Method. Based on a concept analysis design, a meta-narrative review was conducted to extract information from 30 occupational therapy manuscripts. Findings. Professionalism is a complex competence defined by the manifestation of distinct attitudes and behaviours that support excellence in the occupational therapy practice. In addition, professionalism is forged and evolves according to personal and environmental characteristics. The manifestation of professionalism can lead to positive consequences for occupational therapists, clients, and the discipline, notably contributing to a positive and strong professional identity. Moreover, professionalism is also subject to cultural influences, which leads to variations in its development, manifestations, and consequences. Implications. This study offers a contemporary operational definition of professionalism and levers to promote its development and maintenance.

scholarly journals “I know it when I hear it”

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 205920431878458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pauline Larrouy-Maestri
Keyword(s):  
Musical Training ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Repetition Effect ◽  
Large Individual ◽  
Task Repetition ◽  
Musical Performances ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
High Consistency ◽  
Effect Experiment ◽  
Over Time

Listeners regularly judge the accuracy of musical performances. However, as is true for several types of judgments (e.g., beauty or obscenity), estimating the correctness of melodies is not based on a precise definition of the object/performance but rather follows arguments such as “I know it when I hear it”. In order to clarify the definition of correctness in melodies, participants identified parametrically manipulated sung melodies as in-tune or out-of-tune, using the method of limits procedure (Experiment 1). Listeners’ tolerance with regard to mistuning was compared across melodies (Experiment 2). The potential roots of correctness perception were investigated by testing the effect of familiarity, the influence of formal musical training (Experiment 3), and the task repetition effect (Experiment 4). The results highlight a surprisingly small tolerance with regard to mistuning (half of a quarter tone), whatever the melodic context, large individual differences, but high consistency over time. This high sensitivity was mainly modulated by musical training as well as by previous exposure. In addition to defining the boundary between in- and out-of-tune melodies, this study supports the implicit development of the normative notion of “correctness” as a category that might drive listeners’ appreciation of artistic performances.

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