Effect of Choice Bracketing on Risk Aggregation in Repeated-Play Gambles With no Feedback

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shir Dekel ◽  
Micah Goldwater ◽  
Dan Lovallo ◽  
Bruce Burns

Aggregating the risk of a series of decisions reduces the overall risk compared to when each decision is considered individually—the logic behind diversified investment strategies. Most experimental research on a series of risky decisions provides participants with immediate feedback for each individual choice before presenting the subsequent gamble—a task-structure that inhibits the possibility of risk aggregation. In real-life business decisions, feedback is usually not seen until a significant delay with many more business decisions made in the interim. This decision-making sequence has the potential for systematic risk aggregation. However, it is unclear how people determine what decisions cluster together such that those decisions’ risks become aggregated. In the current work, we presented experimental participants a series of scenarios describing potential investments and investigated multiple ways to support clustering or bracketing choices together. We found that showing a distribution of outcome probabilities without inter-trial feedback reduced risk aversion. Further, we found mixed evidence for an effect of similarity of projects, and found only minimal evidence that viewing projects together and awareness of the number of projects encourages aggregation. These results suggest that risk aggregation is hard to facilitate, at least in laypeople, without first aggregating the options for them.

Jurnal Akta ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 777
Author(s):  
Paulus Meldif Dika Pratama ◽  
Gunarto Gunarto

The purpose of this study was to analyze the legal consequences of the agreement of power sell off made in the manufacture of an agreement of sale by Notary. Legal theory used in this study, among others: justice theory, the theory of authority and responsibility theory. The approach used in this study is primarily sociological juridical approach. Sociological juridical approach is to identify and conceptualize law as a social institution that is real and functional in a real life system. The results of this study finally provides the answer that the certificate authority to sell off which made the authorizer to the Proxy should still be subject to and required for payment of taxes from the sale of land and / or buildings that have been sold such, it thus obliged Notary socialize at the time the parties face because it is concerned responsibility by agreement authorized to sell he made in the manufacture of an agreement of sale in accordance with the provisions stipulated in the Indonesian Government Regulation No. 36 of 2016 regarding Income Tax on Income From the Transfer of Rights to Land and / or Buildings, And Agreements sale and purchase Land And / Or Building Along with its amendment.Keywords: Certificate Authority To Sell; Agreement Of Sale; Notary.


2013 ◽  
Vol 95 (9) ◽  
pp. 292-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Brown

Many authors have published theories regarding the learning of practical (surgical) skills. Table 1 contains a useful summary of these theories. Simulation has been defined by Allery et al as 'a structured activity designed to reflect reality, real life and real situations',1 and good simulation has been defined by Gorman et al as 'represent [ing] simplified reality, free from the need to include every possible detail'.2 when discussing simulation in education, issenberg, et al stated: 'Simulations are not identical to real-life events. Instead simulations place trainees into lifelike situations that provide immediate feedback about questions, decisions and actions.'3


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1.) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zsolt Molnár

In the industry, simulations are of great importance. They enable measurements to be made in different conditions about a virtual device, which are highly comparable to measurements made in a real life scenarios. Because of their wide range of usage in lower power drive systems, where precision and simplicity is a must, the subject of study is a permanent magnet stepper motor. For precise positioning purposes, it is essential to know the positioning behaviour of these devices. The model construction process involved an intermediate step, which consisted of creating the Bond-Graph of the motor based on pre-defined models available in the literature in this field. In the next step, the Bond-Graph model was converted to a block diagram of the motor. This permitted the direct implementation of the motor model in LabVIEW visual programming environment. The preliminary steps allows us to check and confirm the functionality and correctness of the model. This article covers in detail the model conversion and implementation steps of the simulation. At the end, the functionality of the simulation was tested.


2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. p17
Author(s):  
Petrit Hasanaj ◽  
Beke Kuqi

The main purpose of this study is to determine, forecast and evaluate the best of economic conditions and company’s performance in the future. The other purpose of this study is to analyze the financial statement and than give information for financial managers to make through decisions about their business. The financial statement applies tools, analytical techniques and required methods for business analysis. It is a diagnostic tool for evaluating financing activities, investment activities and operational activities as well as an assessment tool for management decisions and other business decisions. The analysis of financial statements, respectively the analysis of the financial reports are used by managers, shareholders, investors and all other interested parties regarding the company's state. Managers use financial reports to see the situation in which the company stands and then provide information to shareholders, to see how reasonable are the investments made in the company. To potential investors, the analysis of the financial statements of the company is very important, because, first they want to know the actual state of the company and then decide whether to invest or not.


XLinguae ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 163-178
Author(s):  
Gulnar Yеskermessova ◽  
Tynyshtyk Yermekova ◽  
Karlygash Nurmuhametova ◽  
Raikhan Abnassyrova ◽  
Orynaу Zhubaeva

In the modern linguistic literature, without taking into account new qualitative changes in contemporary syntactic theory, the theory of text science and speech activity, the view of the consideration of punctuation as a separate section of syntax still prevails. If the linguistic environment changes and the language has the ability to adapt to changes in real life, changes that are observed in a particular speech practice must first be seen as a new but standard, communicative, and pragmatic phenomenon (pauses, deviations). After all, speech and language are interrelated phenomena. Both are two other units of the system. From this point of view, changes made in the syntactic structure of speech should be recognized as consequences of non-verbal communication in non-oral (written) communication. Despite the recognition of the importance of many definitions and studies presented for punctuation, the generally recognized values of textbooks, the emergence of various additional clarifications, and changes relating to punctuation indicate the need to take into account the qualitative changes occurring in the practice of punctuation marks and punctuation-graphic means. In particular, the results of the survey among students clarify this opinion.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 277-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhimli Adhikari

AbstractA large class of problems deals with temporal data. Identifying temporal patterns in these datasets is a natural as well as an important task. In recent times, researchers have reported an algorithm for finding calendar-based periodic pattern in time-stamped data without considering the purchased quantities of the items. However, most of the real-life databases are nonbinary, and therefore, exploring various calendar-based patterns (yearly, monthly, weekly, daily) with their purchased quantities may discover information useful to improve the quality of business decisions. In this article, a technique is proposed to extract calendar-based periodic patterns from nonbinary transactions. In this connection, the concept of certainty factor has been introduced by incorporating transaction frequency for overlapped intervals. Algorithms have been designed to mine frequent itemsets along with intervals and quantity. In addition to that, we have designed an algorithm to find the periodicity of the pattern. The algorithm is tested with real-life data, and the results are given.


Author(s):  
Hakikur Rahman

Today’s fast moving business world faces continuous challenges and abrupt changes in real-life situations at the context of data and information management. In the current trend of information explosion, businesses recognize the value of the information they can gather from various sources. The information that drives business decisions can have many forms, including archived data, transactional data, e-mail, Web input, surveyed data, data repositories, and data marts. The organization’s business strategy should be to deliver high-quality information to the right people at the right time.


Author(s):  
Mahir Yerlikaya ◽  
Sonat Coşkuner

Soundpainting constructed by composer Walter Thompson is a simultaneous universal composition sign language which is made for musicians, dancers, poets and visual artists operated in improvisational environment. Today soundpainting language contains more than 1500 signs. In this research it is aimed to analyze (converting visual texts to writing texts) the gestures (moving visuals) in 1st level of soundpainting. Content analysis was made in this study. After the data analysis, it was discovered that soundpainting sign language gestures have common features in real life body language. Also it was seen that these gestures have universal communication language which has no boundaries like language or hearing deprivation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco J. Parada ◽  
Alejandra Rossi

Recent technological advancements encompassed under the Mobile Brain/Body Imaging (MoBI) framework, have produced exciting new experimental results linking mind, brain, and behavior. The main goal of the MoBI approach is to model brain and body dynamics during every-day, natural, real-life situations. However, even though considerable advances have been made in both hardware and software, technical and analytical conditions are not yet optimal. The MoBI approach is based on attaching synchronized, small, and lightweight neurobehavioral sensors to and around participants during behaviorally-measured structured, semi-structured, and unstructured settings. These sensors have yet to become fully unobtrusive or transparent. Even though a considerable technical and analytical gap still exists, acquisition of brain/body dynamics during real-world situations as well as in virtual, modified, and/or extended laboratory settings has been -in many cases- successful. Nevertheless, even if the technical/analytical gap is breached, novel hypotheses, measures, and experimental paradigms are needed in order to tackle MoBI’s ultimate goal: to model and understand cognition, behavior, and experience as it emerges and unfolds unto and from the world. Such a goal is not completely novel or unique to the MoBI framework; it is at the core of a long-standing scientific and philosophical challenge. The present work starts by briefly reviewing the historical origins of complexity in order to identify three “waves and ripples of complexity” derived from naturalist accounts to the historical brain/body problem. We furthermore argue for a current 4th wave. Finally, we offer the reader what we consider to be the main objective for the MoBI+4E framework in its quest for understanding the functional role of brain/body/world couplings in the emergence of cognition.


2021 ◽  
Vol 18 ◽  
pp. 15-21
Author(s):  
Piotr Mieszawski ◽  
Tomasz Szymczyk

The subject of this work is to evaluate the precision of the Kinect controller operation. Research study was performed and a measuring stand have been prepared. Then an application was created that captures the user's throw gesture and simulates the flight of a virtual ball. Based on this, measurements were made to determine the difference between hand movement and it’s detection by the application, and differences among throw made in real life and in VR. The analysis of these results allowed the accuracy of the controller to be assessed.


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