scholarly journals Overprecision increases subsequent surprise

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don A Moore ◽  
Derek Schatz
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shed Light

Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.

scholarly journals Overprecision Increases Subsequent Surprise

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Schatz ◽  
Don A. Moore
Keyword(s):  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Shed Light

AbstractOverconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.

DEONTOLOGY, THRESHOLDS, AND EFFICIENCY

Legal Theory ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 301-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher T. Wonnell
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Degrees Of Freedom ◽  
Moral Judgments ◽  
Rule Following ◽  
Threshold Functions ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Many ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Public Decision

This article explores four topics raised by Eyal Zamir and Barak Medina's treatment of constrained deontology. First, it examines whether mathematical threshold functions are the proper way to think about limits on deontology, given the discontinuities of our moral judgments and the desired phenomenology of rule-following. Second, it asks whether constrained deontology is appropriate for public as well as private decision-making, taking issue with the book's conclusion that deontological options are inapplicable to public decision-making, whereas deontological constraints are applicable. Third, it examines the issue of the relationship between deontology and efficiency, asking whether deontological constraints should yield in situations where everyone would expect to benefit from their suspension, either ex ante or ex post. Finally, the article concludes that constrained deontology is susceptible to political abuse because of the many degrees of freedom involved in identifying constrained actions and the point at which those constraints yield to consequentialist benefits.

Investigating Idiosyncratic Deals in the Indian Hospitality Industry

2017 ◽  
pp. 220-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohinder Chand Dhiman ◽  
Pawan S. Budhwar ◽  
Anastasia A. Katou
Keyword(s):  
Social Exchange ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Social Exchange Theory ◽  
Hospitality Industry ◽  
Idiosyncratic Deals ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Employee Reactions ◽  
The Relationship

This paper, utilising the social exchange theory, examines the relationship between before hiring negotiation (ex-ante) and after hiring negotiation (ex-post), idiosyncratic deals (i-deals) and employee reactions (i.e., motivation, commitment, work engagement and organisational citizenship behaviour). I-deals refer to voluntary, personalized agreements of a nonstandard nature negotiated between individual employees and their employers regarding terms that benefit each party. The hypotheses of the study were tested applying structural equation modelling on data collected from 275 employees working in 39 companies operating in the Indian hospitality industry. The findings show that although ex-ante and ex-post negotiations are interrelated, the negotiating special terms and conditions at the time of hire are less common than negotiating these terms and conditions while on job. Additionally, the findings indicate that ex-ante negotiation relates positively and more strongly to flexibility i-deals than to task and career i-deals, whilst ex-post negotiation relates positively but more strongly to career i-deals that to task and flexibility i-deals. The analysis also confirms the positive but differential effects of task, career and flexibility i-deals on employee reactions. Implications of the findings for both research and practice are discussed.

Risk-based Regulation in the UK: Courtroom Battles Expose Ongoing Problems

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Laurence BALL-KING
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Thought Processes ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Prior Risk ◽  
Shed Light

Since 1974, the UK has followed a risk-based approach to safety that, in the event of an incident, is enforced through the courts. The legislation is intentionally non-prescriptive and thus requires duty holders and the courts to decide what control measures were reasonable in the circumstances from ex ante and ex post positions. This has proved challenging for all parties involved. This paper describes a series of cases that have shed light on the thought processes of the courts. It appears that there is some variability in decision-making that can be attributed to several factors, including understanding of the word “risk”, the acceptability of residual risk and the validity of historical data as a means of measuring risk. In the aftermath of incidents, there is a real danger that psychological factors may intervene when the prior risk is being assessed for sentencing purposes. It is argued that while the risk-based model continues to enjoy widespread support in the UK and is not challenged, its implementation could be much eased by attention to details. This would serve to simplify courtroom debates, support those practising risk-based regulation and enable risks to be better prioritised.

scholarly journals Classical Ergodicity and Modern Portfolio Theory

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Geoffrey Poitras ◽  
John Heaney
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economics ◽  
Portfolio Theory ◽  
Modern Portfolio Theory ◽  
Theoretical Methods ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Mathematics And Physics

What role have theoretical methods initially developed in mathematics and physics played in the progress of financial economics? What is the relationship between financial economics and econophysics? What is the relevance of the “classical ergodicity hypothesis” to modern portfolio theory? This paper addresses these questions by reviewing the etymology and history of the classical ergodicity hypothesis in 19th century statistical mechanics. An explanation of classical ergodicity is provided that establishes a connection to the fundamental empirical problem of using nonexperimental data to verify theoretical propositions in modern portfolio theory. The role of the ergodicity assumption in the ex post/ex ante quandary confronting modern portfolio theory is also examined.

Private Law and Local Custom

2020 ◽  
pp. 158-176
Author(s):  
Nathan B. Oman
Keyword(s):  
Common Law ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Regulatory Regime ◽  
Private Law ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Ex Post Facto ◽  
Common Objection ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter explores the relationship between private law and common law. Both private law and the common law fit awkwardly into the dominant theoretical models of law, which emphasize regulation and social control by the state. Thus, the common law has long been criticized for failing to comply with the model of clearly articulated rules that are announced ex ante and applied ex post. The private law, for its part, contains numerous features that make it a poor candidate for a well-designed regulatory regime. The chapter then argues that developments in private law theory suggest a convergence between private law and the common law that responds to these issues, rendering the law both intelligible and providing an answer to the common objection that the common law involves ex post facto lawmaking. In addition, a recovery of this classical common law theory is both conceptually feasible and offers solutions to problems left currently unanswered by neoformalism.

scholarly journals Two-Sided Investment and Matching with Multidimensional Cost Types and Attributes

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Dizdar
Keyword(s):  
Transport Theory ◽  
Optimal Transport ◽  
Simple Condition ◽  
Assignment Game ◽  
Coordination Failures ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Optimal Transport Theory ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
General Assignment

Heterogeneous buyers and sellers must make investments before entering a continuum assignment market. I show that efficient ex post contracting equilibria (Cole, Mailath, and Postlewaite 2001b) exist in a general assignment game framework. I then shed light on what enables and what precludes coordination failures. A simple condition—absence of technological multiplicity—guarantees efficient investments for each pair, but a mismatch of agents may still occur. However, using optimal transport theory, I also show that mismatch is heavily constrained in certain multidimensional environments with differentiated agents and no technological multiplicity. Under technological multiplicity, even extreme ex ante heterogeneity need not preclude inefficiencies. (JEL C78, D41, D86)

Regulatory Quality and Performance in EU Network Industries: Evidence on Telecommunications, Gas and Electricity

2009 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 347-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Ugur
Keyword(s):  
Best Practice ◽  
Network Industries ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Regulatory Failure ◽  
And Performance ◽  
High Level ◽  
The Relationship

ABSTRACTThis article provides empirical evidence on ex ante and ex post indicators of regulatory quality and the relationship between those indicators and market performance in liberalised EU-15 network industries. It finds a low level of regulatory independence and competence, a high level of cross-country variations in regulatory quality, and widespread absence of correlation between ex ante regulatory quality and ex post performance indicators. On the basis of these findings, it suggests that the design of national regulatory agencies (NRAs) in Europe is not optimal and may be conducive to regulatory ineffectiveness or outright regulatory failure. Nevertheless, the existence and strengthening of EU-level regulators could enable EU member states to reduce the risk of regulatory failure by encouraging coordination and adoption of best practice.

The Friend of Your Trend

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-51
Author(s):  
Wai Lee
Keyword(s):  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Style Analysis ◽  
Underlying Asset ◽  
Performance Attribution ◽  
Analytical Results ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Investment Process ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Shed Light

Standard performance attribution to beta and alpha is not simple without full transparency into the investment process. This article develops an analytical framework to shed light on ex-ante stylized characteristics of a simple trend following strategy. Our analytical results show that rewards from the trend following strategy embed different degrees of underlying asset beta, which are determined by the asset’s return-to-volatility ratio, in addition to the trending behaviors that the strategy is built to harvest. We compare the results to ex-post realized returns-based style analysis of a CTA index. We discuss practical implications of our results with respect to fees and allocations to trend following strategies.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document