The Friend of Your Trend

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-51
Author(s):  
Wai Lee

Standard performance attribution to beta and alpha is not simple without full transparency into the investment process. This article develops an analytical framework to shed light on ex-ante stylized characteristics of a simple trend following strategy. Our analytical results show that rewards from the trend following strategy embed different degrees of underlying asset beta, which are determined by the asset’s return-to-volatility ratio, in addition to the trending behaviors that the strategy is built to harvest. We compare the results to ex-post realized returns-based style analysis of a CTA index. We discuss practical implications of our results with respect to fees and allocations to trend following strategies.

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quentin Grislain ◽  
Jeremy Bourgoin ◽  
Ward Anseeuw ◽  
Perrine Burnod ◽  
Eva Hershaw ◽  
...  

In recent decades, mechanisms for observation and information production have proliferated in an attempt to meet the growing needs of stakeholders to access dynamic data for the purposes of informed decision-making. In the land sector, a growing number of land observatories are producing data and ensuring its transparency. We hypothesize that these structures are being developed in response to the need for information and knowledge, a need that is being driven by the scale and diversity of land issues. Based on the results of a study conducted on land observatories in Africa, this paper presents existing and past land observatories on the continent and proposes to assess their diversity through an analysis of core dimensions identified in the literature. The analytical framework was implemented through i) an analysis of existing literature on land observatories, ii) detailed assessments of land observatories based on semi-open interviews conducted via video conferencing, iii) fieldwork and visits to several observatories, and iv) participant observation through direct engagement and work at land observatories. We emphasize that the analytical framework presented here can be used as a tool by land observatories to undertake ex-post self-evaluations that take the observatory’s trajectory into account, or in the case of proposed new land observatories, to undertake ex-ante analyses and design the pathway towards the intended observatory.


2021 ◽  
pp. 002085232110317
Author(s):  
Tobias Polzer ◽  
Isabella M Nolte ◽  
Johann Seiwald

Gender budgeting calls for including a gender perspective at all levels of governmental budgetary processes. While the literature on gender budgeting is interdisciplinary and covers a wide geographical range, it remains fragmented. This study uses a literature review to examine the current discourse on gender budgeting and to elicit avenues for future research. Our review shows that studies focus either on emerging economies, such as India or South Africa, or on countries in Europe. Drawing on an analytical framework, we find that most studies scrutinize the ex ante stages of gender budgeting, whereas less is known about the concurrent and ex post stages. Moreover, because little is known about the outcome and impact of gender budgeting, governments do not know what instruments function best in different settings. Given their ex ante focus, most studies on gender budgeting often either remain descriptive or analyse secondary data. Despite scholars from different disciplines contributing to the field of gender budgeting, several ‘blank spots’ remain, particularly in public sector accounting. Points for practitioners While current gender budgeting projects tend to focus on the ex ante stage of gender budgeting, future practitioner attention needs to focus on the equally important concurrent and ex post stages, which have received less attention thus far. An increasing number of governments worldwide are implementing gender budgeting projects. Governments need to evaluate the outcome and impact of these projects in a timely fashion, aiming at reducing structural inequalities related to gender. Gender budgeting is willingly adopted in times of prosperity and stability or when the scope of projects appears manageable. To avoid negative impacts on their achievements, policy makers need to put gender budgeting on the political agenda and institutionalize it in times of instability and crisis.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Don A Moore ◽  
Derek Schatz

Overconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Faisal Abbas ◽  
Adnan Bashir

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of leverage, regulatory capital and tier-I capital ratios on the ex ante and ex post risk of Japanese banks.Design/methodology/approachTo test the hypotheses, the authors have implemented a panel of 507 commercial and cooperative banks of Japan over the period extending from 2001 to 2020, using a two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) framework.FindingsThe overall sample banks' results show that the impact of leverage, regulatory capital and tier-I capital ratios on ex ante and ex post risk is positive. The findings reveal that the effects of regulatory and tier-I capital ratios on ex post risk are negative (positive) for commercial (cooperative) banks, high-liquid, low-liquid and high-growth banks in Japan. In addition, the regulatory capital ratio is more beneficial for risk due to its power to absorb losses. The lagged coefficient indicates that banks require more time to adjust their ex post and ex ante risk during crisis period than during normal economic conditions.Practical implicationsThe heterogeneity in results has practical implications for regulators, policymakers and bank managers in formulating the capital requirement guidelines with respect to ex ante and ex post risk across different categories and characteristics of banks.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study investigating the impact of leverage, regulatory capital and tier-I capital ratios on the ex ante and ex-post risk of Japanese commercial and cooperative banks over the period from 2001 to 2020. The insights into the impact of leverage, regulatory capital and tier-I capital ratios on the ex ante and ex post risk of well-capitalized, under-capitalized, high and low-liquid banks are new in the context of Japan.


2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Laurence BALL-KING

Since 1974, the UK has followed a risk-based approach to safety that, in the event of an incident, is enforced through the courts. The legislation is intentionally non-prescriptive and thus requires duty holders and the courts to decide what control measures were reasonable in the circumstances from ex ante and ex post positions. This has proved challenging for all parties involved. This paper describes a series of cases that have shed light on the thought processes of the courts. It appears that there is some variability in decision-making that can be attributed to several factors, including understanding of the word “risk”, the acceptability of residual risk and the validity of historical data as a means of measuring risk. In the aftermath of incidents, there is a real danger that psychological factors may intervene when the prior risk is being assessed for sentencing purposes. It is argued that while the risk-based model continues to enjoy widespread support in the UK and is not challenged, its implementation could be much eased by attention to details. This would serve to simplify courtroom debates, support those practising risk-based regulation and enable risks to be better prioritised.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Schatz ◽  
Don A. Moore

AbstractOverconfident people should be surprised that they are so often wrong. Are they? Three studies examined the relationship between confidence and surprise in order to shed light on the psychology of overprecision in judgment. Participants reported ex-ante confidence in their beliefs, and after receiving accuracy feedback, they then reported ex-post surprise. Results show that more ex-ante confidence produces less ex-post surprise for correct answers; this relationship reverses for incorrect answers. However, this sensible pattern only holds for some measures of confidence; it fails for confidence-interval measures. The results can help explain the robust durability of overprecision in judgment.


2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 86-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deniz Dizdar

Heterogeneous buyers and sellers must make investments before entering a continuum assignment market. I show that efficient ex post contracting equilibria (Cole, Mailath, and Postlewaite 2001b) exist in a general assignment game framework. I then shed light on what enables and what precludes coordination failures. A simple condition—absence of technological multiplicity—guarantees efficient investments for each pair, but a mismatch of agents may still occur. However, using optimal transport theory, I also show that mismatch is heavily constrained in certain multidimensional environments with differentiated agents and no technological multiplicity. Under technological multiplicity, even extreme ex ante heterogeneity need not preclude inefficiencies. (JEL C78, D41, D86)


2008 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Scotland M. Duncan

On April 19, 2005, the United States Supreme Court rendered a unanimous decision in Dura Pharmaceuticals, Inc. v. Broudo, which had been described as “the most important securities case in a decade.” Simply put, the decision raises the pleading standard for Rule 10b-5 cases asserting fraud-onthe-market; instead of requiring a showing of ex ante losses, such as inflation at the time of purchase, Dura requires a showing of ex post losses, such as market decline resulting from a corrective disclosure. This paper assesses the decision’s practical implications by examining and empirically testing whether the Supreme Court’s enhanced pleading requirements have impacted the frequency and magnitude of post-Reform Act (PSLRA) class action securities cases. Specifically, this paper examines Dura’s effect on the filing and settling of cases, as well as on settlement amount. In particular, the results suggest that Dura, ceteris paribus, has had a statistically significant impact on both the filing and settlement of class actions, suggesting a reduction in frivolous litigation.


CFA Digest ◽  
2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 8-9
Author(s):  
Ann C. Logue
Keyword(s):  
Ex Post ◽  

1993 ◽  
Vol 108 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-138
Author(s):  
Pierre Malgrange ◽  
Silvia Mira d'Ercole
Keyword(s):  
Ex Post ◽  

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