scholarly journals Re-opening live events and large venues after Covid-19 ‘lockdown’: Behavioural risks and their mitigations

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Drury ◽  
M. Brooke Rogers ◽  
Theresa Marteau ◽  
Lucy Yardley ◽  
Steve Reicher ◽  
...  

This article reviews the behavioural risks and possible mitigations for re-opening large venues for sports and music events when Covid-19 infection rates and hospitalizations begin to decline. We describe the key variables that we suggest will affect public behaviour relevant to the spread of the virus, drawing upon four sources: (1) relevant evidence and recommendations from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours produced for the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE); (2) research evidence from non-pandemic conditions; (3) research on behaviour during the pandemic; and (4) relevant theory. We first outline some basic risks and a framework for understanding collective behaviour at live events. We then survey some trends in UK public behaviour observed over 2020 and how these might interact with the opening of live events and venues. We present a range of mitigation strategies, based on the framework for collective behaviour and on what is known about non-pharmaceutical (i.e. behavioural) interventions in relation to Covid-19.

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Hannah Christensen ◽  
Adam Trickey ◽  
Gibran Hemani ◽  
Emily Nixon ◽  
...  

AbstractControlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6–35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings.


Author(s):  
Martin McKee ◽  
Danny Altmann ◽  
Anthony Costello ◽  
Karl Friston ◽  
Zubaida Haque ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raechel A. Damarell ◽  
Suzanne Lewis ◽  
Camilla Trenerry ◽  
Jennifer J. Tieman

Abstract Background Integrated care is an increasingly important principle for organising healthcare. Integrated care models show promise in reducing resource wastage and service fragmentation whilst improving the accessibility, patient-centredness and quality of care for patients. Those needing reliable access to the growing research evidence base for integrated care can be frustrated by search challenges reflective of the topic's complexity. The aim of this study is to report the empirical development and validation of two search filters for rapid and effective retrieval of integrated care evidence in PubMed. One filter is optimised for recall and the other for precision.Methods An Expert Advisory Group comprising international integrated care experts guided the study. A gold standard test set of citations was formed from screening Handbook Integrated Care chapter references for relevance. This set was divided into a Term Identification Set (20%) for determining candidate terms using frequency analysis; a Filter Development Set (40%) for testing performance of term combinations; and a Filter Validation Set (40%) reserved for confirming final filter performance. In developing the high recall filter, recall was steadily increased while maintaining precision at ≥ 50%. Similarly, the high precision filter sought to maximise precision while keeping recall ≥ 50%. For each term combination tested, an approximation of precision was obtained by reviewing the first 100 citations retrieved in Medline for relevance.Results The gold standard set comprised 534 citations. The search filter optimised for recall ('Broad Integrated Care Search') achieved 86.0%-88.3% recall with corresponding low precision (47%-53%). The search filter optimised for precise searching ('Narrow Integrated Care Search') demonstrated precision of 73%-95% with recall reduced to between 55.9% and 59.8%. These filters are now available as one-click URL hyperlinks in the website of International Foundation for Integrated Care.Conclusions The Broad and Narrow Integrated Care Search filters provide potential users, such as policy makers and researchers, seamless, reliable and ongoing access to integrated care evidence for decision making. These filters were developed according to a rigorous and transparent methodology designed to circumvent the challenges of information retrieval posed by this complex, multifaceted topic.


2021 ◽  
Vol 51 (10) ◽  
pp. 1707-1712
Author(s):  
Katherine Creeper ◽  
Bradley Augustson ◽  
Kieran Kusel ◽  
Michael J. Fulham ◽  
Joy Ho ◽  
...  

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raechel A. Damarell ◽  
Suzanne Lewis ◽  
Camilla Trenerry ◽  
Jennifer J. Tieman

Abstract Background Integrated care is an increasingly important principle for organising healthcare. Integrated care models show promise in reducing resource wastage and service fragmentation whilst improving the accessibility, patient-centredness and quality of care for patients. Those needing reliable access to the growing research evidence base for integrated care can be frustrated by search challenges reflective of the topic's complexity. The aim of this study is to report the empirical development and validation of two search filters for rapid and effective retrieval of integrated care evidence in PubMed. One filter is optimised for recall and the other for precision.Methods An Expert Advisory Group comprising international integrated care experts guided the study. A gold standard test set of citations was formed from screening Handbook Integrated Care chapter references for relevance. This set was divided into a Term Identification Set (20%) for determining candidate terms using frequency analysis; a Filter Development Set (40%) for testing performance of term combinations; and a Filter Validation Set (40%) reserved for confirming final filter performance. In developing the high recall filter, recall was steadily increased while maintaining precision at ≥ 50%. Similarly, the high precision filter sought to maximise precision while keeping recall ≥ 50%. For each term combination tested, an approximation of precision was obtained by reviewing the first 100 citations retrieved in Medline for relevance.Results The gold standard set comprised 534 citations. The search filter optimised for recall ('Broad Integrated Care Search') achieved 86.0%-88.3% recall with corresponding low precision (47%-53%). The search filter optimised for precise searching ('Narrow Integrated Care Search') demonstrated precision of 73%-95% with recall reduced to between 55.9% and 59.8%. These filters are now available as one-click URL hyperlinks in the website of International Foundation for Integrated Care.Conclusions The Broad and Narrow Integrated Care Search filters provide potential users, such as policy makers and researchers, seamless, reliable and ongoing access to integrated care evidence for decision making. These filters were developed according to a rigorous and transparent methodology designed to circumvent the challenges of information retrieval posed by this complex, multifaceted topic.


BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. e036522
Author(s):  
Janet Njelesani ◽  
Jean Hunleth

IntroductionYoung people’s participation in health research produces knowledge that is indispensable for creating appropriate and effective policies. However, how best to disseminate youth participatory research evidence to impact health policy is not known. Therefore, the objectives of this systematic review are to describe the evidence produced through youth participatory research, including the strategies used to disseminate youth participatory research evidence to health policymakers. These are necessary to improve policymakers’ use of youth participatory research evidence and, thereby, make programmes more impactful for young people.Methods and analysisThe meta-narrative methodology will guide the systematic review to highlight the contrasting and complementary evidence on the use of engaging youth in research to affect health policymaking. Relevant studies will be identified by searching electronic databases, including but not limited to EBSCO, PROQUEST, OVID Medline, Sociological Abstracts and Google Scholar from inception to December 2020. The methodological quality of included quantitative, qualitative and mixed-methods research studies will be assessed using valid appraisal tools. The meta-narrative approach to analysis will include identifying meta-narratives of how youth participation informed the health research findings.Ethics and disseminationAn advisory group of young people will advise on the study and dissemination of the findings. As part of our plan for active dissemination, we will produce a policy brief that builds the rationale for using research with and by youth as part of an evidence base necessary for achieving youth health outcomes.


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