scholarly journals Police-involved deaths and the impact on homicide rates in the post-Ferguson era: a study of 44 US cities

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Jeremiah Lane
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Homicide Rate ◽  
Detectable Effect ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Aggravated Assault ◽  
Legal Cynicism ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Us Cities

This study investigated whether in the post-Ferguson era, homicide rates increased in cities where there was a protested police-involved death. It also tests for evidence of two potential mechanisms: 1) legal cynicism, measured as an increase in homicides (where reporting is less discretionary) that is larger than aggravated assaults (where reporting is more discretionary), which would suggest reduced reporting; and 2) the moderating influence of an external investigation as an indicator of de-policing. Homicide and assault trends in 44 US cities with a police-involved protest were analysed using an interrupted time series design. Results were combined using a meta-analysis, and moderators were tested in meta-regressions. Averaged across all cities, there was an acute and sustained 25.7% increase in the homicide rate (99% CI: 15.0% to 36.4%). Aggravated assault rates also increased above baseline, though it was 15.1 percentage points smaller than homicide rate effects (99% CI: -26.6% to -3.6%). Whether the police-involved death was investigated by an external organisation had no detectable effect (p = 0.089). The findings suggest that protested deaths at the hands of police caused increases in both legal cynicism and violence within the communities they are meant to protect.

scholarly journals Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

2021 ◽  
pp. 088626052110283
Author(s):  
Tyler J Lane
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Aggravated Assault ◽  
Series Design ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Black Populations ◽  
Fbi Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Design

This study investigated whether homicides increased after protested police-involved deaths, focusing on the period after Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson in August 2014. It also tests for effects of legal cynicism by comparing effects in homicide and aggravated assault on the assumption that reporting of the latter is discretionary and police abuses may make communities reluctant to notify police. Using FBI data from 44 U.S. cities, homicide and assault rates from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and combined in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled effects. A meta-regression tested effect moderators including external investigations and city/county sociodemographic characteristics. With a conservative threshold of p ≤ .01, 21 of the 44 cities experienced a significant increase and one had a significant decrease. The pooled effect was a 26.1% increase in the homicide (99% CI: 15.3% to 36.8%). Aggravated assaults increased above baseline, though the effect was 15.2 percentage points smaller (99% CI: –26.7 to –3.6) than the effect in homicides. When outcomes were measured as percent change, there were no significant effect moderators, but when measured as absolute change, homicides increased to a greater extent when the death was subject to external investigation and in cities with higher Black populations, poverty rates, and baseline homicide rates. The findings suggest that protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities whom police are meant to protect.

Assessing the Impact of Public Policy on Homicide Rates in Brazil: The Case of PRONASCI Program

2021 ◽  
pp. 073401682110390
Author(s):  
Talita Egevardt de Castro ◽  
Marcelo Justus ◽  
Ana Lúcia Kassouf
Keyword(s):  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Homicide Rate ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Difference In Differences ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Metropolitan Regions ◽  
Program Complexity ◽  
Urban Territories ◽  
The Impact

The current study evaluates the impact of the National Public Security with Citizenship Program (PRONASCI) on the homicide rate in Brazilian municipalities. PRONASCI program was implemented in Brazilian metropolitan regions and urban territories with high violent crime rates in 2007. In this study, we have applied a spatial difference-in-differences model with matching approaches. Municipalities that did not receive funds from the program made up the control group. We found that the program was inefficient to reduce the homicide rate in all of the municipalities that had received funds from it, compared to those that had not, even considering their potential spatial spillover effects. This result was expected due to the program complexity, in particular due to its ineffective management and the resistance from municipalities to change with the program.

scholarly journals 353Do police-involved deaths increase homicide rates in the post-Ferguson Era? Evidence from 44 US cities

2021 ◽  
Vol 50 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Lane
Keyword(s):  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Sociodemographic Factors ◽  
Causal Mechanism ◽  
Moderating Effects ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
Local Police ◽  
Conflict Resolution Strategy ◽  
Meta Analyses ◽  
Us Cities ◽  
Uniform Crime Reporting

Abstract Background Starting in 2014, homicide rates increased in several US cities, reversing a two-decade downward trend. A number of commentators blamed the events of Ferguson, Missouri, where police killed Michael Brown, leading to protests and greater scrutiny of similar events in other cities. It is still unclear whether effect is causal and what the mechanism would be. Methods Using the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting database, I derived 2011-2019 crime data from 44 US cities where protests followed a local police-involved death. The main outcome was homicide. Assaults are potentially similar as a conflict-resolution strategy, though reporting is more discretionary than homicides. Differences in effect between homicide and assault were used as a proxy for underreporting and an indicator legal cynicism. Effects were tested using interrupted time series and combined with meta-analyses. Meta-regressions were used to test the moderating effects of external investigations and sociodemographic factors. Results Homicides increased 26% (99% CI: 15%, 36%). Assaults also increased, though the effect was 15% lower than the homicides (-27%, -4%). No tested factor significantly effects. Conclusions Where police-involved deaths lead to protests, homicide rates increase. The findings support de-legitimisation of police as a causal mechanism, but not de-policing. Key messages Police-involved deaths can lead to increased homicides. Cities where police-community tensions are already high may be particularly vulnerable to homicide rate increases following police-involved deaths.

scholarly journals Impacts of helmet law on the changes in potential years of life lost due to traffic injury: a multiple-province evaluation in Vietnam

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 109-115
Author(s):  
Dung Phung ◽  
Ha Trong Nguyen ◽  
Cordia Chu ◽  
Ross Sadler ◽  
Anh Mai Luong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Socioeconomic Factors ◽  
Comprehensive Evaluation ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Years Of Life Lost ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Consistent Change ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionThis study aimed to evaluate the impact of the helmet law on the changes in potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to traffic mortality and to examine modification effects of socioeconomic factors on the impacts in Vietnam.MethodsWe applied an interrupted time series design using the Bayesian framework to estimate the impact of the law at the provincial level. Then, we used random effects meta-analysis to estimate the impact of the law at the country level and to examine the modification effects of socioeconomic factors.ResultsThe results indicate that the impacts varied among the provinces. These impacts could be classified by four main groups comprising positive impact, and positive impact without sustainability, possible positive impact, negative or inconsistent impact. For the country-level impact, the results reveal a significantly consistent change in monthly PYLLs at the level of 18 per 100 000 persons, and the post-trend was stable without significant change. The results of meta-regression show that 1 unit increase in the population density (persons/km2), migration rate (%) and income (×1000 dong) are non-significantly associated with increases of PYLLs at 1.3, 27 and 27 per 100 000 person-months, respectively, whereas 1% increase in literacy associated with a decrease of PYLL at 44 per 100 000 person-months.DiscussionFurther studies should be warranted to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the law implementation, including its acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, feasibility, cost-effectiveness and sustainability.

scholarly journals Impact of COVID-19 lockdown on emergency asthma admissions and deaths: national interrupted time series analyses for Scotland and Wales

Thorax ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. thoraxjnl-2020-216380
Author(s):  
Gwyneth A Davies ◽  
Mohammad A Alsallakh ◽  
Shanya Sivakumaran ◽  
Eleftheria Vasileiou ◽  
Ronan A Lyons ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Severe Asthma ◽  
Inhaled Corticosteroids ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
P Value ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Asthma Exacerbations ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on people with asthma is poorly understood. We hypothesised that lockdown restrictions were associated with reductions in severe asthma exacerbations requiring emergency asthma admissions and/or leading to death.MethodsUsing data from Public Health Scotland and the Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, we compared weekly counts of emergency admissions and deaths due to asthma over the first 18 weeks in 2020 with the national averages over 2015–2019. We modelled the impact of instigating lockdown on these outcomes using interrupted time-series analysis. Using fixed-effect meta-analysis, we derived pooled estimates of the overall changes in trends across the two nations. We also investigated trends in asthma-related primary care prescribing and emergency department (ED) attendances in Wales.ResultsLockdown was associated with a 36% pooled reduction in emergency admissions for asthma (incidence rate ratio, IRR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.49 to 0.83, p value 0.001) across both countries. There was no significant change in asthma deaths (pooled IRR: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.17 to 1.94, p value 0.37). ED asthma attendances in Wales declined during lockdown (IRR: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.73 to 0.99, p value 0.03). A large spike of 121% more inhaled corticosteroids and 133% more oral corticosteroid prescriptions was seen in Wales in the week before lockdown.ConclusionsNational lockdowns were associated with substantial reductions in severe asthma exacerbations leading to hospital admission across both Scotland and Wales, with no corresponding increase in asthma deaths.

scholarly journals Change in drink purchases in 16 Australian recreation centres following a sugar-sweetened beverage reduction initiative: an observational study

BMJ Open ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. e029492
Author(s):  
Tara Boelsen-Robinson ◽  
Liliana Orellana ◽  
Kathryn Backholer ◽  
Ariana Kurzeme ◽  
Alethea Jerebine ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Secondary Outcome ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Sugar Sweetened Beverage ◽  
Sweetened Beverage ◽  
Health Promoting ◽  
Effective Public Health ◽  
Purchasing Patterns ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) reduction initiative on customer purchasing patterns, including volume sales of healthy and unhealthy packaged drinks and sales value of all packaged drinks, in a major Australian aquatic and recreation provider, YMCA Victoria.DesignProspectiveSetting16 aquatic and recreation centres in Victoria, Australia.InterventionsThe SSB-reduction initiative aimed to remove all SSBs (excluding sports drinks) and increase healthier drink availability over a 1-year period.Primary and secondary outcome measuresItemised monthly drink sales data were collected for 16 centres, over 4 years (2 years preimplementation, 1 year implementation and 1 year postimplementation). Drinks were classified as ‘green’ (best choice), ‘amber’ (choose carefully) or ‘red’ (limit). Interrupted time series analysis was conducted for each centre to determine the impact on volume sales of ‘red’ and ‘green’ drinks, and overall sales value. A novel meta-analysis approach was conducted to estimate the mean changes across centres.ResultsFollowing implementation, volume sales of ‘red’ drinks reduced by 46.2% across centres (95% CI: −53.2% to −39.2%), ‘green’ drink volume did not change (0.0%, 95% CI: −13.3% to 13.2%) and total drink sales value decreased by 24.3% (95% CI: −32.0% to −16.6%).ConclusionsThe reduction of SSBs in health-promoting settings such as recreation centres is a feasible, effective public health policy that is likely to be transferable to other high-income countries with similarly unhealthy beverage offerings. However, complementary strategies should be considered to encourage customers to switch to healthier alternatives, particularly when translating policies to organisations with less flexible income streams.

Repositioning for preventing pressure ulcers: a systematic review and meta-analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (9) ◽  
pp. 496-508
Author(s):  
Pinar Avsar ◽  
Zena Moore ◽  
Declan Patton ◽  
Tom O'Connor ◽  
Aglecia MV Budri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Inclusion Criteria ◽  
Systematic Review Methodology ◽  
System Versus ◽  
Time Series Studies ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Randomised Controlled ◽  
The Impact

Objective: The aim of this systematic review was to assess the effects of different repositioning regimens on pressure ulcer (PU) incidence in at-risk adult individuals without existing PUs. Method: Using systematic review methodology, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), including cluster-RCTs, prospective non-RCTs, pre–post-studies and interrupted-time-series studies were considered. Specifically explored was the impact of the frequency of repositioning, use of repositioning systems and use of turning teams. The search was conducted in January 2019, using PubMed, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Cochrane and EMBASE databases. Data were extracted using a pre-designed extraction tool and analysis was undertaken using RevMan. Results: A total of 530 records were returned, of which 16 met the inclusion criteria. Half of studies were conducted in intensive care units (50%). The mean sample size was 629±604 participants. Frequency of repositioning was explored in nine studies. PU incidence was 8% (n=221/2834) for repositioning every 2–3 hours, versus 13% (n=398/3050) for repositioning every 4–6 hours. The odds ratio (OR) was 0.75 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61–0.90, p=0.03), suggesting that there is a 25% reduction in the odds of PU development in favour of more frequent repositioning. Use of a repositioning system was explored in three studies. PU incidence was 2% (17/865) for the repositioning system, versus 5.5% (51/926) for care without using the repositioning system. The OR was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.05–1.29, p=0.10); this finding was not statistically significant. Use of a turning team was explored in two studies. PU incidence was 11% (n=22/200) with use of a turning team versus 20% (n=40/200) for usual care. The OR was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.27–0.86, p=0.01) suggesting that there is a 51% reduction in the odds of PU development in favour of use of a turning team. Using GRADE appraisal, the certainty of the evidence was assessed as low. Conclusion: The results of this systematic review indicate that more frequent repositioning and use of a turning team reduce PU incidence. However, given the low certainty of evidence, results should be interpreted with caution.

scholarly journals P.1.19 Increased benefit generosity and the impact on workers’ compensation claiming behaviour: an interrupted time series study in victoria, australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. A82.2-A82
Author(s):  
Tyler Lane ◽  
Shannon Gray ◽  
Luke Sheehan ◽  
Alex Collie
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Health Claims ◽  
Detectable Effect ◽  
Workers Compensation ◽  
Time Series Study ◽  
Injury Group ◽  
Compensation Claims ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Series Study

ObjectiveTo measure the effect of legislated increases to workers’ compensation benefits on claiming behaviour.MethodsInterrupted time series of workers’ compensation claims in Victoria, Australia (2008–2012), assessing 1) the overall effect of the legislation and 2) raising the wage replacement cap on higher earners, by condition type, in reference to a comparator of other Australian workers’ compensation jurisdictions.ResultsOverall claiming increased 11.7%, driven largely by musculoskeletal condition claims. There was no detectable effect on disability duration overall, though back/neck conditions were up 26.9%. Among higher earners, there was mixed evidence of an increase in claiming, though disability durations were up 32.9%, which was also driven by back/neck conditions. There was mixed evidence of an effect on mental health claims, suggesting either no response or a negative response to benefit generosity.ConclusionsFindings mainly align with existing evidence: more generous benefits increase claiming and disability durations, primarily driven by back/neck musculoskeletal conditions. However, some mixed findings by injury group and among higher earners raise questions about confounders such as co-occurring events.

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