Evaluating the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on New Cancer Diagnoses and Oncology Care in Manitoba

Individuals with cancer are vulnerable to infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19. Physical distancing, the reallocation of health care resources, and the implementation of procedures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 may also have serious consequences for people with cancer. We evaluated the impact of COVID-19 on new cancer diagnoses and oncology care in Manitoba, Canada using an interrupted time series design and data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry and CancerCare Manitoba’s (CCMB) electronic medical record. In April 2020, there was a 23% decrease in new cancer diagnoses, a 21% decrease in pathology reports, and a 43% reduction in surgical resections. There was no difference in new cancer diagnoses by August 2020, surgery by July 2020, and pathology reports by September 2020. From April 2020 to June 2021, there was a 13% decrease in radiotherapy (RT) fractions, an 18% decrease in UCC visits, and a 52% decrease in in-person visits. There was no change in intravenous chemotherapy visits per month, first RT visits, or overall patient visits. The impact of COVID-19 on shifts in the stage at diagnosis and survival will be assessed in future analyses.

Effects of medical service fee revision on reducing irrational psychotropic polypharmacy in Japan: an interrupted time-series analysis

Purpose According to the revised Japanese medical service fees aimed at reducing irrational psychotropic polypharmacy, medical service fees are reduced if the number of simultaneously prescribed psychotropic drugs exceeds the standard. This study primarily aims to examine the effect of the 2018 revision. Methods Using a large Japanese administrative claims database, we retrospectively identified five groups (April 2013–September 2018) prescribed at least one drug from the following drug groups: anxiolytics, hypnotics, sum of anxiolytics and hypnotics, antipsychotics, and antidepressants (study population in each group: 547,511, 406,524, 759,137, 112,929, and 201,046, respectively). We used an interrupted time-series design to evaluate changes in the proportion of patients prescribed more than the standard number of drugs. Results After the 2018 revision, the proportion of patients prescribed more than the standard number of drugs significantly decreased only for the sum of anxiolytics and hypnotics; estimated changes in level and trend were − 0.60% [− 0.69%, − 0.52%] and − 0.04% [− 0.06%, − 0.02%] per month, respectively. The proportion of patients exhibiting a decrease in the number of prescribed drugs from more than the standard to within the standard increased when the revision was enforced (April 2018); this proportion in April 2018 was 36.3%, while all other proportions were in the range of 12.1–22.3%. Conclusion The 2018 revision promoted a reduction in the number of prescribed drugs, which served as an important factor in the decrease in the proportion of patients prescribed more than the standard number of drugs for the sum of anxiolytics and hypnotics.

Recreational cannabis legalization and alcohol purchasing: a difference-in-differences analysis

Background Whether recreational cannabis legalization is associated with changes in alcohol consumption (suggesting a potential substitution or complementary relationship) is a key question as cannabis policy evolves, particularly given the adverse health and social effects of alcohol use. Relatively little research has explored this question. Methods This study examined the association between recreational cannabis legalization and alcohol purchasing in the USA using an interrupted time series design. We used data from the Nielsen Consumer Panel (2004–2017) from 69,761 households in all 50 states to calculate monthly milliliters of pure ethanol purchased for four beverage categories (beer, wine, spirits, and all alcohol products). We used difference-in-differences models and robust cluster standard errors to compare changes in milliliters of pure ethanol purchased. We fit models for each beverage category, comparing three “policy” states that have legalized recreational cannabis (Colorado, Oregon, and Washington) to states that had not legalized recreational cannabis. In one set of models, a single control state was selected that matched pre-policy purchasing trends in the policy states. In another set, policy states were compared to all states that had not legalized recreational cannabis. Results Compared to all other states that did not legalize recreational cannabis, Colorado households showed a 13% average monthly decrease in purchases of all alcoholic products combined (estimate, 0.87; CI, 0.77, 0.98) and a 6% decrease in wine (0.94; CI, 0.89, 0.99). Estimates in Washington were suggestive of an increase in spirits purchased in both the unrestricted (1.24; CI, 1.12, 1.37) and restricted sample (1.18; CI, 1.02, 1.36). Oregon showed a significant decrease in monthly spirits purchased when compared to its selected comparator state (0.87; CI, 0.77, 0.99) and to all other states without legalized recreational cannabis (0.85; CI, 0.77, 0.95). Conclusions Results suggest that alcohol and cannabis are not clearly substitutes nor complements to one-another. Future studies should examine additional states as more time passes and more post-legalization data becomes available, use cannabis purchase data and consider additional methods for control selection in quasi-experimental studies.

Police-involved Deaths and the Impact on Homicide Rates in the Post-Ferguson Era: A Study of 44 U.S. Cities

This study investigated whether homicides increased after protested police-involved deaths, focusing on the period after Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson in August 2014. It also tests for effects of legal cynicism by comparing effects in homicide and aggravated assault on the assumption that reporting of the latter is discretionary and police abuses may make communities reluctant to notify police. Using FBI data from 44 U.S. cities, homicide and assault rates from 2011 to 2019 were analyzed using an interrupted time series design and combined in a meta-analysis to calculate pooled effects. A meta-regression tested effect moderators including external investigations and city/county sociodemographic characteristics. With a conservative threshold of p ≤ .01, 21 of the 44 cities experienced a significant increase and one had a significant decrease. The pooled effect was a 26.1% increase in the homicide (99% CI: 15.3% to 36.8%). Aggravated assaults increased above baseline, though the effect was 15.2 percentage points smaller (99% CI: –26.7 to –3.6) than the effect in homicides. When outcomes were measured as percent change, there were no significant effect moderators, but when measured as absolute change, homicides increased to a greater extent when the death was subject to external investigation and in cities with higher Black populations, poverty rates, and baseline homicide rates. The findings suggest that protested police-involved deaths led to an increase in homicides and other violence due to the distrust fomented within the very communities whom police are meant to protect.

Group Pregnancy Care for refugee background women: a codesigned, multimethod evaluation protocol applying a community engagement framework and an interrupted time series design

IntroductionPregnancy and early parenthood are key opportunities for interaction with health services and connecting to other families at the same life stage. Public antenatal care should be accessible to all, however barriers persist for families from refugee communities to access, navigate and optimise healthcare during pregnancy. Group Pregnancy Care is an innovative model of care codesigned with a community from a refugee background and other key stakeholders in Melbourne, Australia. Group Pregnancy Care aims to provide a culturally safe and supportive environment for women to participate in antenatal care in a language they understand, to improve health literacy and promote social connections and inclusion. This paper outlines Froup Pregnancy Care and provides details of the evaluation framework.Methods and analysisThe evaluation uses community-based participatory research methods to engage stakeholders in codesign of evaluation methods. The study is being conducted across multiple sites and involves multiple phases, use of quantitative and qualitative methods, and an interrupted time series design. Process and cost-effectiveness measures will be incorporated into quality improvement cycles. Evaluation measures will be developed using codesign and participatory principles informed by community and stakeholder engagement and will be piloted prior to implementation.Ethics and disseminationEthics approvals have been provided by all six relevant authorities. Study findings will be shared with communities and stakeholders via agreed pathways including community forums, partnership meetings, conferences, policy and practice briefs and journal articles. Dissemination activities will be developed using codesign and participatory principles.

Effects of Chinese medical pricing reform on the structure of hospital revenue and healthcare expenditure in county hospital: an interrupted time series analysis

Background China has initiated a medical pricing reform to combat the overuse of drugs and relieve the financial burden of patients. This paper aims to analyze the effect of medical pricing reform on revenue structure and healthcare expenditure of county public hospitals in Guangdong province. Methods Based on the monthly data from January 2013 to August 2019, we use interrupted time series design to evaluate the effects of medical pricing reform on healthcare expenditure in both outpatients and inpatients. A counterfactual is also established to examine the net effect of the policy. Results The proportion of drug revenue decreased from 35 % to 2015 to 29.7 % in 2019, and the revenue from medical services and inspection increased 3.2 and 3 % respectively. Meanwhile, the increasing trend of total expenditure and its main components is slowed down, especially the drug expense and medical consumable expense for inpatients after the Zero Mark-up Drug policy (coefficient = -18.76, p < 0.01; coefficient = -13.41, p < 0.01, respectively). However, the growth of inspection expense for outpatients continues to increase, while the healthcare expenditure for inpatients experiences an instant increase after the Zero Mark-up Medical Consumables policy. In terms of the net effect, most of healthcare expenditure in both outpatient and inpatient experienced a negative net growth from 2015 to 2019. Conclusions The medical pricing reform is a valuable attempt in controlling the unreasonable increase of medical expenses. In the meantime, the unexpected increase in inspection expenditure and insufficient compensation from medical service adjustment should draw the attention of the policymakers.

Evaluation of the impact of the voluntary safety standard for liquid laundry packets on the rate of child exposures reported to Poison Control Centers in the US

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of the voluntary safety standard for liquid laundry packets on the rate of child exposures reported to Poison Control Centers in the US.MethodsThe analysis was based on an interrupted time series design. The voluntary safety standard for laundry packets was published at the end of 2015. Data on reported liquid laundry packet exposures involving children under age 6 years were collected for the July 2012 through December 2017 study period. A negative binomial multiple regression model for rate data was used to quantify the impact of the voluntary standard on (1) the rate of total reported exposures and (2) the rate of reported exposures that were medically treated. The analysis controlled for laundry packet sales, time trends and seasonal variations in reported exposures.ResultsThe voluntary safety standard was associated with a 28.6% reduction in the rate of total reported exposures and a 36.8% reduction in the rate of medically treated exposures. The analysis also provides some evidence that these estimated reductions may underestimate overall reductions in the rate of reported exposures if pre-standard packaging improvements and possible caregiver behavioural responses to laundry packet hazard warnings are considered.ConclusionsThe analysis suggests that the requirements of the voluntary standard have effectively reduced the rate of injury involving liquid laundry packets.

Effects of Chinese Medical Pricing Reform on the Structure of Hospital Revenue and Healthcare Expenditure in County Hospital: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background China has initiated a medical pricing reform to combat the overuse of drugs and relieve the financial burden of patients. This paper aims to analyze the effect of medical pricing reform on revenue structure and healthcare expenditure of county public hospitals in Guangdong province. Methods Based on the monthly data from January 2013 to August 2019, we use interrupted time series design to evaluate the effects of medical pricing reform on healthcare expenditure in both outpatients and inpatients. A counterfactual is also established to examine the net effect of the policy. Results The proportion of drug revenue decreased from 35% in 2015 to 29.7% in 2019, and the revenue from medical services and inspection increased 3.2% and 3% respectively. Meanwhile, the increasing trend of total expenditure and its main components is slowed down, especially the drug expense and medical consumable expense for inpatients after the Zero Mark-up Drug policy. However, the growth of inspection expense for outpatients continues to increase, while the healthcare expenditure for inpatients experiences an instant increase after the Zero Mark-up Medical Consumables policy. Conclusion The medical pricing reform is a valuable attempt in controlling the unreasonable increase of medical expenses. In the meantime, the unexpected increase in inspection expenditure and insufficient compensation from medical service adjustment should draw the attention of the policymakers.

Identifying how COVID-19-related misinformation reacts to the announcement of the UK national lockdown: An interrupted time-series study

COVID-19 is unique in that it is the first global pandemic occurring amidst a crowded information environment that has facilitated the proliferation of misinformation on social media. Dangerous misleading narratives have the potential to disrupt ‘official’ information sharing at major government announcements. Using an interrupted time-series design, we test the impact of the announcement of the first UK lockdown (8–8.30 p.m. 23 March 2020) on short-term trends of misinformation on Twitter. We utilise a novel dataset of all COVID-19-related social media posts on Twitter from the UK 48 hours before and 48 hours after the announcement (n = 2,531,888). We find that while the number of tweets increased immediately post announcement, there was no evidence of an increase in misinformation-related tweets. We found an increase in COVID-19-related bot activity post-announcement. Topic modelling of misinformation tweets revealed four distinct clusters: ‘government and policy’, ‘symptoms’, ‘pushing back against misinformation’ and ‘cures and treatments’.