The Process of Revolutionary Protest: Development and Democracy in the Tunisian Revolution
Research on democratic revolution treats revolutionary protest, and revolutionary protest participation, as unitary events. This conceptualization is at odds with how 'revolutionary' protest often unfolds—protest does not begin life as democratic or revolutionary but grows in a process of positive feedback, incorporating new constituencies and generating new demands. Using an original protest event catalogue for the twenty-nine days of the Tunisian Revolution, alongside survey data, I show that the correlates of protest occurrence and participation change significantly during the uprising. The effect of economic development on protest diffusion reverses sign, while a commitment to democracy is a substantive predictor of protest participation only at its close. If protest is not revolutionary at its onset, I argue, theory should reflect this and be able to explain the endogenous emergence of democratic demands. In this understanding, the formation of protest coalitions becomes essential, rather than incidental, to democratic revolution.