500,000-year temperature record challenges ice age theory

Fact Sheet ◽  
1994 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Mitchell Snow
Keyword(s):  
Ice Age ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 1876-1884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Chang ◽  
Enlou Zhang ◽  
Enfeng Liu ◽  
James Shulmeister

We present a quantitative mean July temperature record spanning the last c. 5000 years from an alpine lake in south-western China. The reconstruction is based on the application of an established chironomid-based inference model using 100 lakes from the region. The reconstructed summer temperature changes are within 2.4°C of modern throughout the record. The results suggest that the summer temperature changes in south-east margin of the Qinghai–Tibetan plateau (QTP) predominantly responds to Asian Summer Monsoon influence, forced by summer insolation until c. 3200 cal. BP. Four cooling events, each separated by c. 500 years (between 3200 and 1600 cal. BP), were observed and these may correspond to the 500-year quasi-periodic solar fluctuation. The most recent cooling period, that is, ‘the Little Ice Age’, appears robust in the Heihai Lake record, providing further evidence that a hemisphere-wide forcing mechanism is possible for this climate event.


1988 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 206-207 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Jouzel ◽  
C. Lorius ◽  
J.R. Petit ◽  
C. Genthon ◽  
N.I. Barkov ◽  
...  

Oceanic studies have convincingly demonstrated that there is a link between the Pleistocene ice ages and the variations in the elements of the Earth’s orbit (Imbrie and others 1984). In contrast, the climatic conditions which prevailed over continental areas have been far less well documented and then rarely on a quantitative basis. In this context, the 2083 m ice core recovered by the Soviet Antarctic Expeditions at Vostok (East Antarctica) is of fundamental importance because it covers fully the last glacial-interglacial cycle, back to the ice age which preceded the last interglacial (∽160 ka B.P.). Potentially it allows access to many climatic and climate-related parameters as illustrated by the oxygen-18 data we have recently published (Lorius and others 1985), from 10Be measurements (Yiou and others 1985, Raisbeck and others 1987), from aerosol concentration (De Angelis and others 1987) and from CO2 measurement (Barnola and others 1988, this volume). Our first isotopic data set was largely discontinuous over the last 100 ka (only about 7% of the core was analyzed), but continuous beyond that time. Sampling of the ice was completed later, in the field, and we now have continuous deuterium data for the whole core (total ice recovery is about 85%), combining the data of the 2083 m core below 138 m and a complementary data set above. The core chronology was established using a two-dimensional ice-flow model and, for snow accumulation, taking into account change with time (Lorius and others 1985). There is a general correspondence between this curve and the previously published δ18O record (Lorius and others 1985). However, there is obviously far more information in this continuous δD record, which we will examine from the deduced temperature record.


1988 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 206-207
Author(s):  
J. Jouzel ◽  
C. Lorius ◽  
J.R. Petit ◽  
C. Genthon ◽  
N.I. Barkov ◽  
...  

Oceanic studies have convincingly demonstrated that there is a link between the Pleistocene ice ages and the variations in the elements of the Earth’s orbit (Imbrie and others 1984). In contrast, the climatic conditions which prevailed over continental areas have been far less well documented and then rarely on a quantitative basis.In this context, the 2083 m ice core recovered by the Soviet Antarctic Expeditions at Vostok (East Antarctica) is of fundamental importance because it covers fully the last glacial-interglacial cycle, back to the ice age which preceded the last interglacial (∽160 ka B.P.). Potentially it allows access to many climatic and climate-related parameters as illustrated by the oxygen-18 data we have recently published (Lorius and others 1985), from 10Be measurements (Yiou and others 1985, Raisbeck and others 1987), from aerosol concentration (De Angelis and others 1987) and from CO2 measurement (Barnola and others 1988, this volume).Our first isotopic data set was largely discontinuous over the last 100 ka (only about 7% of the core was analyzed), but continuous beyond that time. Sampling of the ice was completed later, in the field, and we now have continuous deuterium data for the whole core (total ice recovery is about 85%), combining the data of the 2083 m core below 138 m and a complementary data set above. The core chronology was established using a two-dimensional ice-flow model and, for snow accumulation, taking into account change with time (Lorius and others 1985).There is a general correspondence between this curve and the previously published δ18O record (Lorius and others 1985). However, there is obviously far more information in this continuous δD record, which we will examine from the deduced temperature record.


2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (14) ◽  
pp. 5240-5258 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Rypdal ◽  
Kristoffer Rypdal

Abstract A linearized energy-balance model for global temperature is formulated, featuring a scale-invariant long-range memory (LRM) response and stochastic forcing representing the influence on the ocean heat reservoir from atmospheric weather systems. The model is parameterized by an effective response strength, the stochastic forcing strength, and the memory exponent. The instrumental global surface temperature record and the deterministic component of the forcing are used to estimate these parameters by means of the maximum-likelihood method. The residual obtained by subtracting the deterministic solution from the observed record is analyzed as a noise process and shown to be consistent with a long-memory time series model and inconsistent with a short-memory model. By decomposing the forcing record in contributions from solar, volcanic, and anthropogenic activity one can estimate the contribution of each to twentieth-century global warming. The LRM model is applied with a reconstruction of the forcing for the last millennium to predict the large-scale features of Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions, and the analysis of the residual also clearly favors the LRM model on millennium time scale. The decomposition of the forcing shows that volcanic aerosols give a considerably greater contribution to the cooling during the Little Ice Age than the reduction in solar irradiance associated with the Maunder Minimum in solar activity. The LRM model implies a transient climate response in agreement with IPCC projections, but the stronger response on longer time scales suggests replacing the notion of equilibrium climate sensitivity by a time scale–dependent sensitivity.


2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haipeng Wang ◽  
Jianhui Chen ◽  
Shengda Zhang ◽  
David D. Zhang ◽  
Zongli Wang ◽  
...  

Abstract. Long-term, high-resolution temperature records which combine an unambiguous proxy and precise dating are rare in China. In addition, the societal implications of past temperature change on regional scale have not been sufficiently assessed. Here, based on the modern relationship between chironomids and temperature, we use fossil chironomid assemblages in a precisely-dated sediment core from Gonghai Lake to explore temperature variability during the past 4000 years in northern China. Subsequently, we address the possible regional societal implications of temperature change through a statistical analysis of the occurrence of wars. Our results show that: (1) the mean annual temperature (TANN) was relatively high from 4000–2700 cal yr BP, decreased gradually from 2700–1270 cal yr BP, and then fluctuated drastically during the last 1270 years. (2) A cold climatic event in the Era of Disunity, the Sui-Tang Warm Period (STWP), the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) can all be recognized in the paleotemperature record, as well as in many other temperature reconstructions in China. This suggests that our chironomid-inferred temperature record for the Gonghai Lake region is representative. (3) Local wars in Shanxi Province, documented in the historical literature during the past 2700 years, are statistically significantly correlated with changes in temperature, and the relationship is a good example of the potential societal implications of temperature change on a regional scale.


2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1521-1552 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Seppä ◽  
A. E. Bjune ◽  
R. J. Telford ◽  
H. J. B. Birks ◽  
S. Veski

Abstract. The threat of future global warming has generated a major interest in quantifying past climate variability on centennial and millennial time-scales. However, palaeoclimatological records are often noisy and arguments about past variability are only possible if they are based on reproducible features in several reliably dated datasets. Here we focus on the last 9000 years, explore the results of 35 Holocene pollen-based July mean and annual mean temperature reconstructions from Northern Europe by stacking them to create summary curves, and compare them with a high-resolution, summary chironomid-based temperature record and other independent palaeoclimate records. The stacked records show that the "Holocene Thermal Maximum" in the region dates to 8000 to 4800 cal yr BP and that the "8.2 event" and the "Little Ice Age" at 500–100 cal yr BP are the clearest cold episodes during the Holocene. In addition, a more detailed analysis of the last 5000 years pinpoints centennial-scale climate variability with cold anomalies at 3800–3000 and 500–100 cal yr BP, a long, warmer period around 2000 cal yr BP, and a marked warming since the mid 19th century. The colder (warmer) anomalies are associated with increased (decreased) humidity over the Northern European mainland, consistent with the modern high correlation between cold (warm) and humid (dry) modes of summer weather in the region. A comparison with the key proxy records reflecting the main forcing factors does not support the hypothesis that solar variability is the cause of the late-Holocene centennial-scale temperature changes. We suggest that the reconstructed anomalies are typical of Northern Europe and their occurrence may be related to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic–North-European region.


2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Seppä ◽  
A. E. Bjune ◽  
R. J. Telford ◽  
H. J. B. Birks ◽  
S. Veski

Abstract. The threat of future global warming has generated a major interest in quantifying past climate variability on centennial and millennial time-scales. However, palaeoclimatological records are often noisy and arguments about past variability are only possible if they are based on reproducible features in several reliably dated datasets. Here we focus on the last 9000 years, explore the results of 36 Holocene pollen-based July mean and annual mean temperature reconstructions from Northern Europe by stacking them to create summary curves, and compare them with a high-resolution, summary chironomid-based temperature record and other independent palaeoclimate records. The stacked records show that the "Holocene Thermal Maximum" in the region dates to 8000 to 4800 cal yr BP and that the "8.2 event" and the "Little Ice Age" at 500–100 cal yr BP are the clearest cold episodes during the Holocene. In addition, a more detailed analysis of the last 5000 years pinpoints centennial-scale climate variability with cold anomalies at 3800–3000 and 500–100 cal yr BP, a long, warmer period around 2000 cal yr BP, and a marked warming since the mid 19th century. The colder (warmer) anomalies are associated with increased (decreased) humidity over the northern European mainland, consistent with the modern high correlation between cold (warm) and humid (dry) modes of summer weather in the region. A comparison with the key proxy records reflecting the main forcing factors does not support the hypothesis that solar variability is the cause of the late-Holocene centennial-scale temperature changes. We suggest that the reconstructed anomalies are typical of Northern Europe and their occurrence may be related to the oceanic and atmospheric circulation variability in the North Atlantic – North-European region.


Nature ◽  
2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Peplow
Keyword(s):  

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