NUMERICAL MODELING OF POLAR LOWS OVER THE BARENTS SEA: IMPACT OF WRF PARAMETRIZATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORECAST.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonina Polezhayeva ◽  
Antonina Polezhayeva
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Polar lows are generally characterized by severe weather in the form of strong winds, showers and occasionally heavy snow, which have sometimes resulted in the loss of life, especially at sea. Numerical simulations with mesoscale atmospheric models is a good alternative to investigate polar low phenomenon, because they produce temporally and spatially regular-spaced fields of atmospheric variables with high resolution. To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for the Barents Sea region; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization (PBLs) schemes and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate evolution of polar lows. The impact on the quality of forecast was investigated. The results of the study, obtained by numerical modeling of polar mesoscale low over the Barents Sea. One polar low, near Spitsbergen, from 24 of March to 26 of March 2014 were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that each of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization scheme isn't successful for simulation of polar low.

NUMERICAL MODELING OF POLAR LOWS OVER THE BARENTS SEA: IMPACT OF WRF PARAMETRIZATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORECAST.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonina Polezhayeva ◽  
Antonina Polezhayeva
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Polar lows are generally characterized by severe weather in the form of strong winds, showers and occasionally heavy snow, which have sometimes resulted in the loss of life, especially at sea. Numerical simulations with mesoscale atmospheric models is a good alternative to investigate polar low phenomenon, because they produce temporally and spatially regular-spaced fields of atmospheric variables with high resolution. To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for the Barents Sea region; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization (PBLs) schemes and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate evolution of polar lows. The impact on the quality of forecast was investigated. The results of the study, obtained by numerical modeling of polar mesoscale low over the Barents Sea. One polar low, near Spitsbergen, from 24 of March to 26 of March 2014 were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that each of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization scheme isn't successful for simulation of polar low.

Methods of modeling the polar low development 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kuznetsova ◽  
Alexander Dosaev ◽  
Nikita Rusakov ◽  
Evgeny Poplavsky ◽  
Yuliya Troitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low

<p>The ice cover decrease in the Arctic in the past decade has led to polar hurricanes (polar lows) occurring along the entire Northern Sea Route. Wind speeds of these hurricanes reach 35-40 m / s. Over the past 20 years, significant progress in predicting storm trajectories has been achieved, while the quality of forecasting their intensity is still poor. This is due to the fact that the intensity (maximum wind speed and minimum pressure) is determined by the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean, and at high wind speeds it has significant uncertainty, especially for the smallest-scale processes: splashes, wave collapses and foam bubbles [1].</p><p>Numerical modeling of the polar low development was carried out within the framework of the WRF model [2] in order to develop methods for modeling such extreme events. The water area of the Barents Sea was considered, where a large number of polar hurricanes were observed. Among the identified polar hurricanes [3], a hurricane that took place on 02/05/2009 and was observed at coordinates 69º N, 40º E was chosen. Several approaches were considered to simulate the weather conditions in the studied area of the Barents Sea in the presence of a polar hurricane. The WRF model simulation with the CFSR reanalysis was carried out. The configuration of the model consisted in using, first, the well-proven technique of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) modeling of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Secondly, the simulation was performed using the WRF add-in for the polar region, Polar WRF [4]. The comparison of the approaches is made. The mechanism of intensification of the atmospheric vortex is considered whether it is baroclinic shear, heat fluxes on the surface or outcome of latent heat during condensation.</p><p>This work was supported by a RFBR grant № 18-05-60299.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>1. Troitskaya, Yu, et al. "Bag-breakup fragmentation as the dominant mechanism of sea-spray production in high winds." Scientific reports7.1 (2017): 1-4.<br>2. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 / W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, W. Wang, J. G. Powers // NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE. - 2008. - №NCAR/TN–475+STR. - С. 113 pp.<br>3. Noer, G., & Lien, T. (2010). Dates and Positions of Polar lows over the Nordic Seas between 2000 and 2010. Norwegian Meteorological Institute Rep.<br>4. Hines, Keith M., et al. "Development and testing of Polar WRF. Part III: Arctic land." Journal of Climate24.1 (2011): 26-48.</p>

scholarly journals Polar Lows over the Nordic Seas: Improved Representation in ERA-Interim Compared to ERA-40 and the Impact on Downscaled Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2271-2289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Laffineur ◽  
Chantal Claud ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Gunnar Noer
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Short Life Span ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Polar lows are intense high-latitude mesocyclones that form during the cold season over open sea. Their relatively small-scale and short life span lead to a rather poor representation in model outputs and meteorological reanalyses. In this paper, the ability of the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) to represent polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Sea is assessed, and a comparison with the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is provided for three cold seasons (1999–2000 until 2001–02). A better representation in ERA-Interim is found, with 13 systems captured out of the 29 observed, against 6 in the case of ERA-40. Reasons for the lack of representation are identified. Unexpectedly, the representation of different polar low sizes does not appear to be linked to the resolution. Rather, it is the representation of synoptic conditions that appears to be essential. In a second part, a downscaling is conducted using the mesoscale model Méso-NH. For each observed polar low, a pair of simulations is performed: one initialized by ERA-Interim and the other one by ERA-40. An improvement is noted with 22 polar lows represented when ERA-Interim is used. Through a model-to-satellite approach, it is shown that even if polar lows are simulated, convective processes remain insufficiently represented. Wind speeds, which were underestimated in reanalyses, are nevertheless more realistic in the Méso-NH simulations. These results are supported by a spectral analysis of reanalyses and Méso-NH fields.

Marine Operation Windows Offshore Norway

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjarte O. Kvamme ◽  
Adekunle P. Orimolade ◽  
Sverre K. Haver ◽  
Ove T. Gudmestad
Keyword(s):  
North Sea ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Norwegian Sea ◽  
The North ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Wave Conditions ◽  
Buoy Measurements

A study of the wave conditions in the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea is presented in this paper. For each region, one reference location for which there are buoy measurements is selected. For the selected locations, WAM10 hindcast data are obtained from the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway). The hindcast data for each location cover the period from 1957 to 2014. First, the hindcast datasets were validated against available buoy measurements — both for extreme value predictions and for application of hindcast data for planning of marine operations. The validation was carried out considering the winter season and the summer season separately. For each season, the datasets for two consecutive months were used. A comparison of the time-series of the hindcast datasets against the buoy measurements showed that the hindcast datasets compared relatively well with the buoy measurements. However, a comparison of the statistical parameters of the hindcast datasets against the buoy measurements showed that the hindcast datasets are slightly conservative in the estimate of the significant wave height for the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea. Overall, the data compared well, and the hindcast datasets are therefore considered in the following analysis. Hindcast data from these 57 years show that the wave conditions in the selected Norwegian Sea location is harsher than the wave conditions in both the North Sea and the Barents Sea locations. This is in agreement with the general expected spatial trend in the wave climate on the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). It was also observed that the wave conditions in the selected Barents Sea location are harsher than the wave conditions in the North Sea. These findings are also reflected in the NORSOK N-003 standard on “Actions and Action effects” (NORSOK, 2015). The weather windows for weather-sensitive marine operations, that is, operations with operational reference period not exceeding 72 hours, were established from the hindcast dataset for each of the locations. It was observed that the Norwegian Sea has shorter weather windows, especially in the winter seasons, compared to both the Barents Sea and the North Sea. It was expected that the operational windows would be shorter in the winter seasons in the Barents Sea, due to the occurrence of polar lows. However, the polar lows are few and cause more concern related to forecasting of the weather conditions to start actual marine operations. Generally, the month with the highest probability of weather windows exceeding 72 hours was found to be July for all three locations.

The impact of CSEM on exploration decisions and seismic: two case studies from the Barents Sea

First Break ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Fanavoll ◽  
P.T. Gabrielsen ◽  
S. Ellingsrud
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The Impact

Impact of Atlantic water inflow on winter cyclone activity in the Barents Sea: Insights from coupled regional climate model simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirseid Akperov ◽  
Vladimir A. Semenov ◽  
Igor I. Mokhov ◽  
Wolfgang Dorn ◽  
Annette Rinke
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Water Inflow ◽  
Cyclone Activity ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of the Atlantic water inflow (AW inflow) into the Barents Sea on the regional cyclone activity in winter is analyzed in 10 ensemble simulations with the coupled Arctic atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model HIRHAM-NAOSIM for the 1979–2016 period. The model shows a statistically robust connection between AW inflow and climate variability in the Barents Sea. The analysis reveals that anomalously high AW inflow leads to changed baroclinicity in the lower troposphere via changed static stability and wind shear, and thus favorable conditions for cyclogenesis in the Barents/Kara Seas. The frequency of occurrence of cyclones, but particularly of intense cyclones, is increased over the Barents Sea. Furthermore, the cyclones in the Barents Sea become larger (increased radius) and stronger (increased intensity) in response to an increased AW inflow into the Barents Sea, compared to years of anomalously low AW inflow.</p><p>The authors acknowledge the support by the Russian-German project funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany and Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (grant 05.616.21.0109 (RFMEFI61619X0109)).</p>

scholarly journals Dynamical Precipitation Downscaling for Hydrologic Applications Using WRF 4D-Var Data Assimilation: Implications for GPM Era

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 811-829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liao-Fan Lin ◽  
Ardeshir M. Ebtehaj ◽  
Rafael L. Bras ◽  
Alejandro N. Flores ◽  
Jingfeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Stage Iv ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Point Scale ◽  
Precipitation Estimates ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The objective of this study is to develop a framework for dynamically downscaling spaceborne precipitation products using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var). Numerical experiments have been conducted to 1) understand the sensitivity of precipitation downscaling through point-scale precipitation data assimilation and 2) investigate the impact of seasonality and associated changes in precipitation-generating mechanisms on the quality of spatiotemporal downscaling of precipitation. The point-scale experiment suggests that assimilating precipitation can significantly affect the precipitation analysis, forecast, and downscaling. Because of occasional overestimation or underestimation of small-scale summertime precipitation extremes, the numerical experiments presented here demonstrate that the wintertime assimilation produces downscaled precipitation estimates that are in closer agreement with the reference National Centers for Environmental Prediction stage IV dataset than similar summertime experiments. This study concludes that the WRF 4D-Var system is able to effectively downscale a 6-h precipitation product with a spatial resolution of 20 km to hourly precipitation with a spatial resolution of less than 10 km in grid spacing—relevant to finescale hydrologic applications for the era of the Global Precipitation Measurement mission.

First assessment of biomass and abundance of cephalopods Rossia palpebrosa and Gonatus fabricii in the Barents Sea

2016 ◽  
Vol 97 (8) ◽  
pp. 1605-1616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexey V. Golikov ◽  
Rushan M. Sabirov ◽  
Pavel A. Lubin
Keyword(s):  
Deep Water ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
World Ocean ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Arctic Ecosystems ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Quantitative Distribution ◽  
Maximum Biomass ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
The Impact

Studies on the quantitative distribution of cephalopods in the Arctic are limited, and almost completely absent for the Barents Sea. It is known that the most abundant cephalopods in the Arctic are Rossia palpebrosa and Gonatus fabricii. Their biomass and abundance have been assessed for the first time in the Barents Sea and adjacent waters. The maximum biomass of R. palpebrosa in the Barents Sea was 6.216–6.454 thousand tonnes with an abundance of 521.5 million specimens. Increased densities of biomass were annually registered in the north-eastern parts of the Barents Sea. The maximum biomass of G. fabricii in the Barents Sea was 24.797 thousand tonnes with an abundance of 1.705 billion specimens. The areas with increased density of biomass (higher than 100 kg km−2) and abundance (more than 10,000 specimens km−2) were concentrated in deep-water troughs in the marginal parts of the Barents Sea and in adjacent deep-water areas. The biomass and abundance of R. palpebrosa and G. fabricii in the Barents Sea were much lower than those of major taxa of invertebrates and fish and than those of cephalopods in other parts of the World Ocean. It has been suggested that the importance of cephalopods in the Arctic ecosystems, at least in terms of quantitative distribution, could be somewhat lower than in the Antarctic or the tropics. Despite the impact of ongoing warming of the Arctic on the distribution of cephalopods being described repeatedly already, no impact of the current year's climate on the studied species was found. The only exception was the abundance of R. palpebrosa, which correlated with the current year's climate conditions.

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