Methods of modeling the polar low development 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Kuznetsova ◽  
Alexander Dosaev ◽  
Nikita Rusakov ◽  
Evgeny Poplavsky ◽  
Yuliya Troitskaya
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low

<p>The ice cover decrease in the Arctic in the past decade has led to polar hurricanes (polar lows) occurring along the entire Northern Sea Route. Wind speeds of these hurricanes reach 35-40 m / s. Over the past 20 years, significant progress in predicting storm trajectories has been achieved, while the quality of forecasting their intensity is still poor. This is due to the fact that the intensity (maximum wind speed and minimum pressure) is determined by the interaction of the atmosphere and the ocean, and at high wind speeds it has significant uncertainty, especially for the smallest-scale processes: splashes, wave collapses and foam bubbles [1].</p><p>Numerical modeling of the polar low development was carried out within the framework of the WRF model [2] in order to develop methods for modeling such extreme events. The water area of the Barents Sea was considered, where a large number of polar hurricanes were observed. Among the identified polar hurricanes [3], a hurricane that took place on 02/05/2009 and was observed at coordinates 69º N, 40º E was chosen. Several approaches were considered to simulate the weather conditions in the studied area of the Barents Sea in the presence of a polar hurricane. The WRF model simulation with the CFSR reanalysis was carried out. The configuration of the model consisted in using, first, the well-proven technique of Large Eddy Simulation (LES) modeling of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Secondly, the simulation was performed using the WRF add-in for the polar region, Polar WRF [4]. The comparison of the approaches is made. The mechanism of intensification of the atmospheric vortex is considered whether it is baroclinic shear, heat fluxes on the surface or outcome of latent heat during condensation.</p><p>This work was supported by a RFBR grant № 18-05-60299.</p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>1. Troitskaya, Yu, et al. "Bag-breakup fragmentation as the dominant mechanism of sea-spray production in high winds." Scientific reports7.1 (2017): 1-4.<br>2. A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 / W. C. Skamarock, J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, M. G. Duda, X.-Y. Huang, W. Wang, J. G. Powers // NCAR TECHNICAL NOTE. - 2008. - №NCAR/TN–475+STR. - С. 113 pp.<br>3. Noer, G., & Lien, T. (2010). Dates and Positions of Polar lows over the Nordic Seas between 2000 and 2010. Norwegian Meteorological Institute Rep.<br>4. Hines, Keith M., et al. "Development and testing of Polar WRF. Part III: Arctic land." Journal of Climate24.1 (2011): 26-48.</p>

NUMERICAL MODELING OF POLAR LOWS OVER THE BARENTS SEA: IMPACT OF WRF PARAMETRIZATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORECAST.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonina Polezhayeva ◽  
Antonina Polezhayeva
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Polar lows are generally characterized by severe weather in the form of strong winds, showers and occasionally heavy snow, which have sometimes resulted in the loss of life, especially at sea. Numerical simulations with mesoscale atmospheric models is a good alternative to investigate polar low phenomenon, because they produce temporally and spatially regular-spaced fields of atmospheric variables with high resolution. To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for the Barents Sea region; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization (PBLs) schemes and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate evolution of polar lows. The impact on the quality of forecast was investigated. The results of the study, obtained by numerical modeling of polar mesoscale low over the Barents Sea. One polar low, near Spitsbergen, from 24 of March to 26 of March 2014 were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that each of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization scheme isn't successful for simulation of polar low.

NUMERICAL MODELING OF POLAR LOWS OVER THE BARENTS SEA: IMPACT OF WRF PARAMETRIZATIONS ON THE QUALITY OF FORECAST.

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonina Polezhayeva ◽  
Antonina Polezhayeva
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Numerical Experiments ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization ◽  
The Impact

Polar lows are generally characterized by severe weather in the form of strong winds, showers and occasionally heavy snow, which have sometimes resulted in the loss of life, especially at sea. Numerical simulations with mesoscale atmospheric models is a good alternative to investigate polar low phenomenon, because they produce temporally and spatially regular-spaced fields of atmospheric variables with high resolution. To describe the evolution of atmospheric processes the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used. The principal objectives of this study were 1) the understanding of mesoscale WRF model and adapting the model for the Barents Sea region; 2) to conduct numerical experiments using WRF model with different Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization (PBLs) schemes and investigate the impact of each scheme on the quality of forecast; and 3) the investigation of the capability of WRF model to successfully simulate evolution of polar lows. The impact on the quality of forecast was investigated. The results of the study, obtained by numerical modeling of polar mesoscale low over the Barents Sea. One polar low, near Spitsbergen, from 24 of March to 26 of March 2014 were targeted. The results of numerical experiments showed that each of Planetary Boundary Layer parameterization scheme isn't successful for simulation of polar low.

Regularities and features of ice conditions of the Barents Sea in the second half of XX – early XXI century

2021 ◽  
pp. 179-194
Author(s):  
I.O. Dumanskaya ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cycle Period ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Sea Ice Extent ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Western Border ◽  
Quantitative Changes

The warming of the Arctic, especially intensified at the beginning of the XXI century, is accompanied by a significant decrease in the area of ice cover in the Arctic seas. The article shows the quantitative changes in the ice parameters of the Barents Sea, as well as factors affecting the formation of ice cover in recent years. In the twenty-first century the frequency of occurrence of mild winters has increased by 17%, the frequency of severe winters has decreased by 19%. Significantly increased the temperature at the meteorological station Malye Karmakuly, water temperature at transect "Kola Meridian", atmospheric and oceanic heat fluxes, and speed of sea currents on the Western border of the Barents sea. The duration of the ice period decreased by an average of 2–3 weeks, and the rate of reduction of ice cover was 7.2% for 10 years. This is the highest speed compared to other Arctic seas. The article shows that the variability of the ice cover of the Barents Sea and other parameters of the natural environment in the region has the cyclic character. Presumably, the cycle period is close to 84 years, which corresponds to the orbital period of Uranium. The minimum sea ice extent after 1935–1945 is expected in the period 2019–2029.

Polar Lows and Their Implications on Marine Operations: Survivability Criteria

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meric Pakkan ◽  
David Heng ◽  
Ove Tobias Gudmestad
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
The North ◽  
Arctic Regions ◽  
Short Period ◽  
Polar Low

The oil resource potential in the Arctic/sub-Arctic regions is estimated to be as high as that 25% of the world’s yet-to-be-found. Nevertheless, operating in above-mentioned regions is more complicated and expensive than the ones in the North Sea. One of the most important aspects to consider in operating in these Arctic regions is the presence of polar lows and arctic fronts and storms. These extreme events and implications of them on the marine operations were the main focus of this study. While the maximum polar low-sourced wind speeds for 10-, 20- and 100-year return periods are estimated to be 55.37, 60.93 and 73.52 knots, the maximum polar low-sourced wave heights for 10-, 20- and 100-year return periods are calculated as 5.71, 6.66 and 8.82 meters, respectively. It is found out that polar lows weather conditions do not normally represent design values (survival conditions); however, they represent operational limitations. • We conclude that operations lasting longer than 72 hours shall be designed for a rougher weather than the polar lows lead to (survival mode). • For operations of duration less than 72 hours, the weather forecast is crucial and it must also be possible to abort the operation within a short period if one is close to a polar weather front as a polar low may appear very quickly.

scholarly journals Polar Lows over the Nordic Seas: Improved Representation in ERA-Interim Compared to ERA-40 and the Impact on Downscaled Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 142 (6) ◽  
pp. 2271-2289 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Laffineur ◽  
Chantal Claud ◽  
Jean-Pierre Chaboureau ◽  
Gunnar Noer
Keyword(s):  
Barents Sea ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Polar Lows ◽  
Wind Speeds ◽  
Short Life Span ◽  
Synoptic Conditions ◽  
Polar Low ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Polar lows are intense high-latitude mesocyclones that form during the cold season over open sea. Their relatively small-scale and short life span lead to a rather poor representation in model outputs and meteorological reanalyses. In this paper, the ability of the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) to represent polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Sea is assessed, and a comparison with the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is provided for three cold seasons (1999–2000 until 2001–02). A better representation in ERA-Interim is found, with 13 systems captured out of the 29 observed, against 6 in the case of ERA-40. Reasons for the lack of representation are identified. Unexpectedly, the representation of different polar low sizes does not appear to be linked to the resolution. Rather, it is the representation of synoptic conditions that appears to be essential. In a second part, a downscaling is conducted using the mesoscale model Méso-NH. For each observed polar low, a pair of simulations is performed: one initialized by ERA-Interim and the other one by ERA-40. An improvement is noted with 22 polar lows represented when ERA-Interim is used. Through a model-to-satellite approach, it is shown that even if polar lows are simulated, convective processes remain insufficiently represented. Wind speeds, which were underestimated in reanalyses, are nevertheless more realistic in the Méso-NH simulations. These results are supported by a spectral analysis of reanalyses and Méso-NH fields.

scholarly journals Climate change and heat exchange between atmosphere and ocean in the Arctic based on data from the Barents and the Kara sea

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (3) ◽  
pp. 280-292
Author(s):  
G. V. Surkova ◽  
V. A. Romanenko
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exchange ◽  
Energy Exchange ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Kara Sea ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Turbulent Heat Exchange ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Barents And Kara Seas

The paper investigates the current regime of turbulent heat exchange with the atmosphere over the Barents and Kara Seas, as well as its spatial, seasonal and temporal variability (1979–2018). It is shown that over the past decades, the areas of the location of the centers of maximum energy exchange between the sea surface and the atmosphere have not changed significantly in comparison with the middle and second half of the XX century. It was revealed that the greatest seasonal and synoptic variability of heat fluxes is typical of the central and western parts of the Barents Sea. It was found that both indicators of variability in the cold season are 2–5 and more times higher than in the warm season, and the spatial heterogeneity of the indicators of variability in winter is about twice as large as in summer. Quantitative estimates have shown that, within the Barents Sea, the spatial variability of fluxes in winter may be 5–10 times or more higher than the summer values. Above the Kara Sea, the greatest heterogeneity in the fluxes field is typical of the autumn and early winter seasons. It has been found that the annual sums of heat fluxes from the surface of the Barents Sea exceed the values for the Kara Sea, on average, 3–4 and 5–6 times, for sensible and latent heat fluxes, respectively, and in some years may differ tens of times. For the period under study, a single trend of the integral fluxes over the water area and their annual magnitude is not expressed, although there are multi-year decadal fluctuations. It is shown that, despite the significant difference in the thermal regime of the Barents and Kara seas and the lower atmosphere above them, the interannual changes in the total turbulent flows are quite well synchronized, which indicates the commonality of large-scale hydrometeorological processes in these seas, which affect the energy exchange between the seas and the atmosphere.

scholarly journals Phylogeography of the Brittle Star Ophiura sarsii Lütken, 1855 (Echinodermata: Ophiuroidea) from the Barents Sea and East Atlantic

Diversity ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Evgeny Genelt-Yanovskiy ◽  
Yixuan Li ◽  
Ekaterina Stratanenko ◽  
Natalia Zhuravleva ◽  
Natalia Strelkova ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Diversity ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
Haplotype Diversity ◽  
Brittle Star ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Coi Gene ◽  
High Genetic Diversity ◽  
Svalbard Archipelago ◽  
Mitochondrial Coi ◽  
The Barents Sea

Ophiura sarsii is a common brittle star species across the Arctic and Sub-Arctic regions of the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans. Ophiurasarsii is among the dominant echinoderms in the Barents Sea. We studied the genetic diversity of O.sarsii by sequencing the 548 bp fragment of the mitochondrial COI gene. Ophiurasarsii demonstrated high genetic diversity in the Barents Sea. Both major Atlantic mtDNA lineages were present in the Barents Sea and were evenly distributed between the northern waters around Svalbard archipelago and the southern part near Murmansk coast of Kola Peninsula. Both regions, and other parts of the O.sarsii range, were characterized by high haplotype diversity with a significant number of private haplotypes being mostly satellites to the two dominant haplotypes, each belonging to a different mtDNA clade. Demographic analyses indicated that the demographic and spatial expansion of O.sarsii in the Barents Sea most plausibly has started in the Bølling–Allerød interstadial during the deglaciation of the western margin of the Barents Sea.

Arctic Freshwater in CMIP6: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Zanowski ◽  
Alexandra Jahn ◽  
Marika Holland
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Barents Sea ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
The Barents Sea ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
Freshwater Export

<p>Recently, the Arctic has undergone substantial changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in 7 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their agreement over the historical period (1980-2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. In the historical simulation, few models agree closely with observations over 1980-2000. In both future scenarios the models show an increase in liquid (ocean) freshwater storage in conjunction with a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5-8.5 than SSP1-2.6. The liquid fluxes through the gateways exhibit a more complex pattern, with models exhibiting a change in sign of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening and little change in the flux through the Bering Strait in addition to increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. A decomposition of the liquid fluxes into their salinity and volume contributions shows that the Barents Sea flux changes are driven by salinity changes, while the Bering Strait flux changes are driven by compensating salinity and volume changes. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on whether there will be a decrease, increase, or steady liquid freshwater export in the early to mid 21st century, although they mostly show increased liquid freshwater export in the late 21st century. The underlying cause of this is a difference in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux through these straits. Although the models broadly agree on the sign of late 21st century storage and flux changes, substantial differences exist between the magnitude of these changes and the models’ Arctic mean states, which shows no fundamental improvement in the models compared to CMIP5.</p>

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