scholarly journals On the Causes of Palaeoclimatic Variations and of the Ice Ages in Particular

1953 ◽  
Vol 2 (13) ◽  
pp. 213-218
Author(s):  
E. J. Öpik

AbstractA method of quantitative climatological analysis is developed by applying the principle of geometric similarity to the convective heat transport, which is assumed to vary with the 1.5 power of temperature difference. The method makes possible the calculation of the change in the mean annual, or seasonal temperature, produced by a variation in insolation, cloudiness, snow cover, etc.It is shown that the variations in the orbital elements of the earth cannot account for the phenomena of the ice ages; the chronology of the Quaternary, based on these variations, has no real foundation.Palaeoclimatic variations are most probably due to variations of solar luminosity. These can be traced to periodical re-adjustments in the interior of the sun, produced by an interplay between nuclear reactions and gas diffusion, repeating themselves after some 250 million years. Complications from the outer envelope of the sun lead to additional fluctuations of a shorter period, of the order of 100,000 years to be identified with the periodical advance and retreat of the glaciers during the Quaternary.Calculations of the variations of luminosity in a star of solar mass substantiate this hypothesis.

1953 ◽  
Vol 2 (13) ◽  
pp. 213-218 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Öpik

Abstract A method of quantitative climatological analysis is developed by applying the principle of geometric similarity to the convective heat transport, which is assumed to vary with the 1.5 power of temperature difference. The method makes possible the calculation of the change in the mean annual, or seasonal temperature, produced by a variation in insolation, cloudiness, snow cover, etc. It is shown that the variations in the orbital elements of the earth cannot account for the phenomena of the ice ages; the chronology of the Quaternary, based on these variations, has no real foundation. Palaeoclimatic variations are most probably due to variations of solar luminosity. These can be traced to periodical re-adjustments in the interior of the sun, produced by an interplay between nuclear reactions and gas diffusion, repeating themselves after some 250 million years. Complications from the outer envelope of the sun lead to additional fluctuations of a shorter period, of the order of 100,000 years to be identified with the periodical advance and retreat of the glaciers during the Quaternary. Calculations of the variations of luminosity in a star of solar mass substantiate this hypothesis.


The author had pointed out, in a paper published in the Philosophical Transactions for 1828, on the corrections of the elements of Delambre’s Solar Tables, that the comparison of the corrections of the epochs of the sun and the sun’s perigee, given by the late observations, with the corrections given by the observations of the last century, appears to indicate the existence of some inequality not included in the arguments of those tables. As it was necessary, therefore, to seek for some inequality of long period, he commenced an examination of the mean motions of the planets, with the view of discovering one whose ratio to the mean motion of the earth could be expressed very nearly by a proportion of which the terms are small. The appearances of Venus are found to recur in very nearly the same order every eight years; some multiple, therefore, of the periodic time of Venus is nearly equal to eight years. It is easily seen that this multiple must be thirteen; and consequently eight times the mean motion of Venus is nearly equal to thirteen times the mean motion of the earth. The difference is about one 240th of the mean annual motion of the earth; and it implies the existence of an inequality of which the period is about 240 years. No term has yet been calculated whose period is so long with respect to the periodic time of the planets disturbed. The value of the principal term, calculated from the theory, was given by the author in a postscript to the paper above referred to. In the present memoir he gives an account of the method of calculation, and includes also other terms which are necessarily connected with the principal inequality. The first part treats of the perturbation of the earth’s longitude and radius victor; the second of the perturbation of the earth in latitude; and the third of the perturbations of Venus depending upon the same arguments.


Keyword(s):  
The Sun ◽  

According to Mr. Short, the mean horizontal parallax of the Sun is 8", 65. Now this parallax is the angle, which the semidiameter of the earth subtends, being seen from the Sun.


In the Philosophical Transactions for the year 1767, a suggestion is thrown out by Mr. Michell, that a comparison between the light received from the sun and any of the fixed stars, might furnish data for estimating their relative distances; but no such direct comparison had been attempted. Dr. Wollaston was led to infer from some observations that he made in the year 1799, that the direct light of the sun is about one million times more intense than that of the full moon, and therefore very many million times greater than that of all the fixed stars taken collectively. In order to compare the light of the sun with that of a star, he took, as an intermediate object of comparison, the light of a candle reflected from a small bulb, about a quarter of an inch in diameter, filled with quicksilver, and seen, by one eye, through a lens of two inches focus, at the same time that the star or the sun’s image, placed at a proper distance, was viewed by the other eye through a telescope. The mean of various trials seemed to show that the light of Sirius is equal to that of the sun seen in a glass bulb one tenth of an inch in diameter, at the distance of 210 feet, or that they are in the proportion of one to ten thousand millions; but as nearly one half of the light is lost by reflection, the real proportion between the light from Sirius and the sun is not greater than that of one to twenty thousand millions. If the annual parallax of Sirius be half a second, corresponding to a distance of 525,481 times that of the sun from the earth, its diameter would be 3⋅7 times that of the sun, and its light 13⋅8 times as great. The distance at which the sun would require to be viewed, so that its brightness might be only equal to that of Sirius, would be 141,421 times its present distance; and if still in the ecliptic, its annual parallax in longitude would be nearly 3″; but if situated at the same angular distance from the ecliptic as Sirius is, it would have an annual parallax, in latitude, of 1″⋅8.


1994 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 674-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. H. Carver ◽  
I. M. Vardavas

Abstract. Precambrian glaciations appear to be confined to two periods, one in the early Proterozoic between 2.5 and 2 Gyears BP (Before Present) and the other in the late Proterozoic between 1 and 0.57 Gyear BP. Possible reasons for these broad features of the Precambrian climate have been investigated using a simple model for the mean surface temperature of the Earth that partially compensates for the evolution of the Sun by variations in the atmospheric CO2 content caused by outgassing, the formation of continents and the weathering of the Earth's land surface. It is shown that the model can explain the main changes in the Precambrian climate if the early Proterozoic glaciations were caused by a major episode of continental land building commencing about 3 Gyears BP while the late Proterozoic glaciations resulted from biologicallyenhanced weathering of the land surface due to the proliferation of life forms in the transition from the Proterozoic to the Phanerozoic that began about 1 Gyear BP.


2003 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 95-101
Author(s):  
F. Deleflie ◽  
P. Exertier ◽  
P. Berio ◽  
G. Metris ◽  
O. Laurain ◽  
...  

Abstract. The present study consists in studying the mean orbital motion of the CHAMP satellite, through a single long arc on a period of time of 200 days in 2001. We actually investigate the sensibility of its mean motion to its accelerometric data, as measures of the surface forces, over that period. In order to accurately determine the mean motion of CHAMP, we use “observed" mean orbital elements computed, by filtering, from 1-day GPS orbits. On the other hand, we use a semi-analytical model to compute the arc. It consists in numerically integrating the effects of the mean potentials (due to the Earth and the Moon and Sun), and the effects of mean surfaces forces acting on the satellite. These later are, in case of CHAMP, provided by an averaging of the Gauss system of equations. Results of the fit of the long arc give a relative sensibility of about 10-3, although our gravitational mean model is not well suited to describe very low altitude orbits. This technique, which is purely dynamical, enables us to control the decreasing of the trajectory altitude, as a possibility to validate accelerometric data on a long term basis.Key words. Mean orbital motion, accelerometric data


1832 ◽  
Vol 122 ◽  
pp. 67-124
Keyword(s):  
The Sun ◽  

In a paper “On the corrections of the elements of Delambre’s Solar Tables,” published in the Philosophical Transactions for 1828, I stated that the comparison of the corrections in the epochs of the sun and the sun’s perigee given by late observations, with the corrections given by the observations of the last century, appeared to indicate the existence of some inequality not included in the arguments of those Tables. As soon as I had convinced myself of the necessity of seeking for some inequality of long period, I commenced an examination of the mean motions of the planets, with the view of finding one whose ratio to the mean motion of the earth could be expressed very nearly by a proportion whose terms were small: and I did not long seek in vain. It is well known that the appearances of Venus recur in very nearly the same order every eight years: and therefore some multiple of the periodic time of Venus is nearly equal to eight years. It is easily seen that this multiple is thirteen: and consequently eight times the mean motion of Venus is nearly equal to thirteen times the mean motion of the Earth. According to Laplace,(Méc. Cél. liv. vi. chap. 6.) the mean annual motion of Venus is 650 g. 198; that of the Earth 399 g. 993.


2021 ◽  
pp. 21-48
Author(s):  
Jorge Daniel Taillant

This chapter introduces the basic definitions of a glacier and of the glaciosystem (a term coined by the author which refers to the glacier ecosystem). It describes glaciers, and through interactive links, shows the reader glaciers that can be viewed on a smart phone or computer. The chapter also describes the origin and formation of glaciers and their various functions. It introduces the life cycle of a glacier and also explains past and likely future ice ages (or glacial periods) as well as dynamics that may deepen global warming and impede the natural glacial age cycles, including the orbit of the Earth around the sun and its tilt and its relative influence on ice ages.


2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
I. Włodarczyk

We computed impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid (101955) Bennu based on 569 optical observations from September 11.40624 UTC, 1999 to January 20.11189 UTC, 2013, and 29 radar observations from September 21, 1999, through September 29, 2011. Using the freely available OrbFit software package, we can follow its orbit forward in the future searching for close approaches with the earth, which can lead to possible impacts up to 2200. With the A2 nongravitational parameter in the motion of the asteroid (101955) Bennu we computed possible impact solutions using different JPL planetary and lunar ephemerides and different number of additional massive perturbed asteroids. The possible impact path of risk for 2175 is presented. Additionally, we computed possible impact solutions using the normal places method of the selection of Bennu’s astrometric observations. Moreover, we computed time evolution of the mean orbital elements and the orbital nodes of Bennu 5 kyr in the backwards and 1 kyr in the future using the Yarkovsky effects. We computed the mean motion and secular orbital resonances of the Bennu. We also computed the influence of the JPL planetary and lunar ephemerides DE403, DE405, DE406, DE414, and DE423 on the close approaches of the asteroid (101955) Bennu with the earth.


1829 ◽  
Vol 119 ◽  
pp. 19-27 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Sun ◽  

One of the most ingenious contributors to the Transactions of our Society in the last century, the Rev. John Michell, in a paper intituled “An inquiry into the probable parallax and magnitude of fixed stars, &c*.” has proposed it to astronomers, as an object worthy their attention, to determine what propor­tion the light, afforded us separately by each fixed star, bears to the light which we receive from the sun; since, from our inability to measure the annual parallax of those very remote bodies, such a comparison is the best, perhaps the only method within our reach, of obtaining, though not certain, yet pro­bable estimates of their distances; and thus forming reasonable conjectures concerning the extent of the visible universe. In order that we may judge, with the least chance of error, of the mean distance of those stars which are the nearest to the earth, he directs us to compare the light of the brightest stars with that of the sun, and next to calculate how far the sun must be re­moved, to make the light that we should then receive from him, not more than equal to the mean light of the stars chosen for comparison. Mr. Michell made, as he says, some rude experiments for determining the comparative brilliancy of certain principal stars; but has not suggested any con­trivance for comparing a star with the sun. He states, however, so distinctly the great object of such a comparison, and the inferences which an industrious ob­server would thence be entitled to draw, concerning the distances of those stars whose light he might succeed in measuring, that it is surprising that no astrono­mer has been incited by these remarks to devise a method of making the requisite observations, and that now, so many years after Mr. Michell’s suggestion was made public, so much remains to be effected in this branch of photometry.


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