Model-Based Projection of Dementia Prevalence in China and Worldwide: 2020–2050

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Fangyu Li ◽  
Wei Qin ◽  
Min Zhu ◽  
Jianping Jia
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Health Planning ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
The United States ◽  
Dementia Prevalence ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Model Based ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Impact

Background: Current and future incidence and prevalence estimates of dementia are essential for public health planning. Objective: The objective was to establish prediction model of incidence and estimate the prevalence of dementia in the Chinese and worldwide population from 2020 to 2050. Methods: A model-based method was used to project the dementia prevalence from 2020 to 2050 in China, which required incidence, the mortality rate for individual without dementia, and the relative risk of death. Furthermore, we detected the impact of intervention on the prevalence projection for dementia using a simulation method. We applied the same method to other projections worldwide. Results: In 2020, the model predicted 16.25 million (95%confidence interval 11.55–21.18) persons with dementia in China. By 2050, this number would increase by approximately three-fold to 48.98 million (38.02–61.73). Through data simulation, if the incidence of dementia decreased by 10%every 10 years from 2020 after intervention and prevention, the number of dementia cases by 2050 was reduced by 11.96 million. This would reduce the economic burden by US $639.04 billion. In addition, using this model, dementia cases grew relatively slowly over the next few decades in the United States of America, the United Kingdom, and Japan, with percentage changes of 100.88%, 65.93%, and 16.20%, respectively. Conclusion: The number of people with dementia in China is large and will continue to increase rapidly. Effective interventions could reduce the number of patients drastically. Therefore, prevention and control strategies must be formulated urgently to reduce the occurrence of dementia.

scholarly journals Understanding the Link between Family Caregiver Quality of Life and the Care Provided to Older People With Dementia

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 153-154
Author(s):  
Afeez Hazzan
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Quality Of Care ◽  
Older People ◽  
Family Caregivers ◽  
Family Caregiver ◽  
Well Being ◽  
The United States ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Dementia is one of the most rapidly growing diseases in the United States. In 2018, the direct costs to American society of caring for older people with dementia was approximately $277 billion. Primary informal caregivers are mainly responsible for the care of older people with dementia including Alzheimer’s disease. Caregivers perform a myriad of duties ranging from shopping for their loved ones’ groceries, helping with medications, and managing finances. The caregiving role becomes more demanding as the disease progresses over time, and studies have shown that the quality-of-life (QoL) experienced by caregivers of older adults who have dementia is lower than the QoL of caregivers for older people who do not have dementia. To the best of our knowledge, there has been no research conducted to investigate whether lower caregiver QoL affects the level or quality of care that caregivers provide to persons with dementia. In the current study, we interviewed family caregivers living in Rochester, New York to inquire about their quality of life and the care provided to older people living with dementia. Further, caregivers completed the 36-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) as well as a draft questionnaire for measuring the quality of care provided to older people living with dementia. Both quantitative and qualitative findings from this study reveals important relationships between family caregiver QoL and the care provided, including the impact of social support and financial well-being. The study findings could have significant impact, particularly for the provision of much needed support for family caregivers.

scholarly journals 910. A Comprehensive, One Year, Hospital-Wide Snapshot of All Serious Infectious Complications in People Who Inject Drugs

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S489-S490
Author(s):  
John T Henderson ◽  
Evelyn Villacorta Cari ◽  
Nicole Leedy ◽  
Alice Thornton ◽  
Donna R Burgess ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Multivariable Analysis ◽  
Vertebral Osteomyelitis ◽  
The United States ◽  
Infectious Complications ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Icu Admission ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background There has been a dramatic rise in IV drug use (IVDU) and its associated mortality and morbidity, however, the scope of this effect has not been described. Kentucky is at the epicenter of this epidemic and is an ideal place to better understand the health complications of IVDU in order to improve outcomes. Methods All adult in-patient admissions to University of Kentucky hospitals in 2018 with an Infectious Diseases (ID) consult and an ICD 9/10 code associated with IVDU underwent thorough retrospective chart review. Demographic, descriptive, and outcome data were collected and analyzed by standard statistical analysis. Results 390 patients (467 visits) met study criteria. The top illicit substances used were methamphetamine (37.2%), heroin (38.2%), and cocaine (10.3%). While only 4.1% of tested patients were HIV+, 74.2% were HCV antibody positive. Endocarditis (41.1%), vertebral osteomyelitis (20.8%), bacteremia without endocarditis (14.1%), abscess (12.4%), and septic arthritis (10.4%) were the most common infectious complications. The in-patient death rate was 3.0%, and 32.2% of patients were readmitted within the study period. The average length of stay was 26 days. In multivariable analysis, infectious endocarditis was associated with a statistically significant increase in risk of death, ICU admission, and hospital readmission. Although not statistically significant, trends toward mortality and ICU admission were identified for patients with prior endocarditis and methadone was correlated with decreased risk of readmission and ICU stay. FIGURE 1: Reported Substances Used FIGURE 2: Comorbidities FIGURE 3: Types of Severe Infectious Complications Conclusion We report on a novel, comprehensive perspective on the serious infectious complications of IVDU in an attempt to measure its cumulative impact in an unbiased way. This preliminary analysis of a much larger dataset (2008-2019) reveals some sobering statistics about the impact of IVDU in the United States. While it confirms the well accepted mortality and morbidity associated with infective endocarditis and bacteremia, there is a significant unrecognized impact of other infectious etiologies. Additional analysis of this data set will be aimed at identifying key predictive factors in poor outcomes in hopes of mitigating them. Disclosures All Authors: No reported disclosures

scholarly journals “We Are Doing These Things So That People Will Not Laugh at Us”: Caregivers’ Attitudes About Dementia and Caregiving in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 104973232110041
Author(s):  
Candidus C. Nwakasi ◽  
Kate de Medeiros ◽  
Foluke S. Bosun-Arije
Keyword(s):  
The United States ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Dementia Caregivers ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
Knowledge Deficit ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
The Impact

Some Nigerians, in their effort to make sense of dementia symptoms, use descriptions that may stigmatize people with dementia and their families. This qualitative descriptive study focused on the everyday understanding of dementia and the impact of stigma on the caregiving experiences of informal female Nigerian dementia caregivers. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 12 adult informal female caregivers in Nigeria and analyzed for themes. Afterward, results were presented to focus groups of 21 adult Nigerians residing in the United States for more contextual insight on the findings. The three major themes were misconceptions about dementia symptoms, caregiving protects against stigmatization, and stigma affects caregiving support. Overall, we argue that knowledge deficit, poor awareness, and traditional spiritual beliefs combine to drive dementia-related stigmatization in Nigeria. Strategies such as culturally appropriate dementia awareness campaigns and formal long-term care policies are urgently needed to help strengthen informal dementia caregiving in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Survival in elderly glioblastoma patients treated with bevacizumab-based regimens in the United States

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 251-261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Davies ◽  
Irmarie Reyes-Rivera ◽  
Thirupathi Pattipaka ◽  
Stephen Skirboll ◽  
Beatrice Ugiliweneza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Elderly Patients ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Karnofsky Performance Status ◽  
The United States ◽  
Cox Proportional Hazards Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Primary Analysis ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Initial Surgery ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundThe efficacy of bevacizumab (BEV) in elderly patients with glioblastoma remains unclear. We evaluated the effect of BEV on survival in this patient population using the Survival, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare database.MethodsThis retrospective, cohort study analyzed SEER-Medicare data for patients (aged ≥66 years) diagnosed with glioblastoma from 2006 to 2011. Two cohorts were constructed: one comprised patients who had received BEV (BEV cohort); the other comprised patients who had received any anticancer treatment other than BEV (NBEV cohort). The primary analysis used a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to compare overall survival in the BEV and NBEV cohorts with initiation of BEV as a time-dependent variable, adjusting for potential confounders (age, gender, Charlson comorbidity index, region, race, radiotherapy after initial surgery, and diagnosis of coronary artery disease). Sensitivity analyses were conducted using landmark survival, propensity score modeling, and the impact of poor Karnofsky Performance Status.ResultsWe identified 2603 patients (BEV, n = 597; NBEV, n = 2006). In the BEV cohort, most patients were Caucasian males and were younger with fewer comorbidities and more initial resections. In the primary analysis, the BEV cohort showed a lower risk of death compared with the NBEV cohort (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72–0.89; P < .01). The survival benefit of BEV appeared independent of the number of temozolomide cycles or frontline treatment with radiotherapy and temozolomide.ConclusionBEV exposure was associated with a lower risk of death, providing evidence that there might be a potential benefit of BEV in elderly patients with glioblastoma.

Abstract MP35: The American Heart Association’s Life’s Simple 7 and Mortality by Race and Sex in the U.S.: the REasons for Geographic And Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) Cohort

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mary Cushman ◽  
Suzanne E Judd ◽  
Virginia J Howard ◽  
Neil A Zakai ◽  
Brett Kissela ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Racial Differences ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Population Sample ◽  
White Men ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Life’S Simple 7 ◽  
Life's Simple 7 ◽  
The Impact

Background: The Life’s Simple 7 (LSS) metric is being used by AHA to track the cardiovascular health of the United States population and move toward a 2020 impact goal for improvement. Levels of LSS are associated with mortality risk but there are limited data on whether this association differs by race or sex. Hypothesis: There will be sex and race differences in the association of LSS with mortality in the REGARDS cohort study. Methods: We studied 29,692 REGARDS participants; a population sample of black and white men and women aged 45-98 from across the US, enrolled in 2003-7. Extensive baseline risk factor data were measured in participants’ homes. The 7 LSS components (blood pressure, cholesterol, glucose, body-mass index, smoking, physical activity, diet) were each scored in AHA-defined categories of poor (0 points), intermediate (1 point) and ideal (2 points), and were summed to yield scores ranging from poor for all (0) to ideal for all (14). With 6.4 years follow up there were 3709 deaths. Results: The LSS score was normally distributed with mean (SD) of 7.9 (2.0) in whites and 6.9 (2.0) in blacks. The age, region, income and education adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of death for a 1-unit worse LSS score, stratified by race and sex, are shown in the table. Race and sex interactions were tested individually in separate models. While better scores for LSS were strongly associated with lower mortality, associations differed by race and sex, being weaker in blacks than whites and in men than women. Conclusion: There were large associations of LSS with mortality risk in the REGARDS national sample; 1 point difference in score, corresponding to movement from poor to intermediate or intermediate to ideal for 1 of the 7 factors, was associated with a 16% lower risk of death in white women, 14% lower risk in white men or black women, but only an 11% lower risk in black men. Observed differences in the association of LSS with mortality by race and sex should be considered in efforts to gauge the impact of LSS interventions on health disparities.

Use of a Structured Panel Process to Define Quality Metrics for Antimicrobial Stewardship Programs

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 500-506 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew M. Morris ◽  
Stacey Brener ◽  
Linda Dresser ◽  
Nick Daneman ◽  
Timothy H. Dellit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Improvement ◽  
Antimicrobial Stewardship ◽  
Bloodstream Infections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
Public Reporting ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Days Of Therapy ◽  
The Impact

Introduction.Antimicrobial stewardship programs are being implemented in health care to reduce inappropriate antimicrobial use, adverse events, Clostridium difficile infection, and antimicrobial resistance. There is no standardized approach to evaluate the impact of these programs.Objective.To use a structured panel process to define quality improvement metrics for evaluating antimicrobial stewardship programs in hospital settings that also have the potential to be used as part of public reporting efforts.Design.A multiphase modified Delphi technique.Setting.Paper-based survey supplemented with a 1-day consensus meeting.Participants.A 10-member expert panel from Canada and the United States was assembled to evaluate indicators for relevance, effectiveness, and the potential to aid quality improvement efforts.Results.There were a total of 5 final metrics selected by the panel: (1) days of therapy per 1000 patient-days; (2) number of patients with specific organisms that are drug resistant; (3) mortality related to antimicrobial-resistant organisms; (4) conservable days of therapy among patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), skin and soft-tissue infections (SSTI), or sepsis and bloodstream infections (BSI); and (5) unplanned hospital readmission within 30 days after discharge from the hospital in which the most responsible diagnosis was one of CAP, SSTI, sepsis or BSI. The first and second indicators were also identified as useful for accountability purposes, such as public reporting.Conclusion.We have successfully identified 2 measures for public reporting purposes and 5 measures that can be used internally in healthcare settings as quality indicators. These indicators can be implemented across diverse healthcare systems to enable ongoing evaluation of antimicrobial stewardship programs and complement efforts for improved patient safety.

scholarly journals Service evaluation for services for younger people with dementia in east locality of north Wales

BJPsych Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (S1) ◽  
pp. S20-S20
Author(s):  
Asha Dhandapani ◽  
Sathyan Soundararajan ◽  
Sharmi Bhattacharyya
Keyword(s):  
Time Frame ◽  
Service Evaluation ◽  
Young Onset ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
North Wales ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Time To Diagnosis ◽  
Working Age ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Timely Referral

AimsTo evaluate Young-onset dementia (YOD) services in terms of referral, its appropriateness, time to diagnosis and other criteria as per protocol that we have adapted.MethodCase notes of those under 65 referred to Memory service for cognitive assessment between July 2017 and June 2018 were retrospectively reviewed to look at the time to diagnosis, appropriate referrals, post-diagnostic support, etc.ResultCompared to the previous evaluation, the number of patients referred to had increased from 47–48/ year earlier to 63/year. Only 1/3 were appropriate referral over the 10-year period whereas between 2017 and 2018 more than half were appropriate referrals. More than half of them were seen within 12 weeks of referral (35/63 available). Only 132/252 were diagnosed as having some form of dementia in the previous evaluation which was about 13 cases of YOD a year. In contrast, in our new evaluation 19 patients were diagnosed with some form of dementia. Inappropriate referrals had reduced by more than 50%. Appropriateness and timely referral had improved in this time frame.ConclusionDementia is considered ‘young onset’ when it affects people under 65 years of age. It is also referred to as ‘early onset’ or ‘working age’ dementia. However, this is an arbitrary age distinction that is becoming less relevant as increasingly services are realigned to focus on the person and the impact of the condition, not the age. Teaching sessions to educate primary & secondary care clinicians on appropriateness and timely referrals have helped in improving the care for patients with YOD. Services need to be developed further to be able to diagnose & support those with YOD. Repeat evaluations every year would help to inform improvement in quality & appropriateness of referrals.

scholarly journals The Impact of Antihypertensive Drugs on the Number and Risk of Death, Stroke and Myocardial Infarction in the United States

2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Genia Long ◽  
David Cutler ◽  
Ernst Berndt ◽  
Jimmy Royer ◽  
Andrée-Anne Fournier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Antihypertensive Drugs ◽  
The United States ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals The Effectiveness of Mindfulness- and Acceptance-Based Interventions for Informal Caregivers of People With Dementia: A Meta-Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 59 (4) ◽  
pp. e363-e379 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca N Collins ◽  
Naoko Kishita
Keyword(s):  
Stress Reduction ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Informal Caregivers ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
The United States ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Significant Heterogeneity ◽  
Moderator Variables ◽  
People With Dementia ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background and Objectives The application of mindfulness- and acceptance-based interventions (MABIs) for informal caregivers of people with dementia (PwD) is relatively novel, and the current state of the evidence base is unclear. This meta-analysis examined the effectiveness of MABIs on reducing symptoms of depression and burden in informal caregivers of PwD. The quality of included studies was evaluated and moderator variables explored. Research Design and Methods A literature search of six electronic databases (PsycARTICLES, PsycINFO, MEDLINE Complete, SCOPUS, Web of Science, and ProQuest) was conducted from the first available date to 20 December 2016. Inclusion criteria involved studies that quantitatively investigated the impact of MABIs on depression and/or burden in informal caregivers of PwD. Results Twelve studies, providing data on 321 caregivers, were included. Most used mindfulness-based stress reduction and were conducted in the United States. The average attrition among participants was 15.83%. The pre–post effect of MABIs was large for depression and moderate for burden. These effects were largely maintained at follow-up. Significant heterogeneity of effect sizes was observed, with no significant moderators identified. Study quality varied from very poor to moderately good. Discussion and Implications The low attrition and moderate to large effects suggest that MABIs are acceptable and beneficial for informal caregivers of PwD. The lack of significant moderators could advocate services using more cost-effective forms of MABIs. Further higher-quality research is needed to improve the robustness of the evidence base and enable a meta-analysis to thoroughly examine and quantify moderator variables.

Model-based evaluation of mechanisms and benefits of mainstream shortcut nitrogen removal processes

2015 ◽  
Vol 71 (6) ◽  
pp. 840-847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Al-Omari ◽  
Bernhard Wett ◽  
Ingmar Nopens ◽  
Haydee De Clippeleir ◽  
Mofei Han ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nitrogen Removal ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Main Challenge ◽  
Nitrite Oxidizing Bacteria ◽  
Shortcut Nitrogen Removal ◽  
Target Ratio ◽  
Removal Processes ◽  
Selection Mechanisms ◽  
The Impact

The main challenge in implementing shortcut nitrogen removal processes for mainstream wastewater treatment is the out-selection of nitrite oxidizing bacteria (NOB) to limit nitrate production. A model-based approach was utilized to simulate the impact of individual features of process control strategies to achieve NO−2-N shunt via NOB out-selection. Simulations were conducted using a two-step nitrogen removal model from the literature. Nitrogen shortcut removal processes from two case studies were modeled to illustrate the contribution of NOB out-selection mechanisms. The paper highlights a comparison between two control schemes; one was based on online measured ammonia and the other was based on a target ratio of 1 for ammonia vs. NOx (nitrate + nitrite) (AVN). Results indicated that the AVN controller possesses unique features to nitrify only that amount of nitrogen that can be denitrified, which promotes better management of incoming organics and bicarbonate for a more efficient NOB out-selection. Finally, the model was used in a scenario analysis, simulating hypothetical optimized performance of the pilot process. An estimated potential saving of 60% in carbon addition for nitrogen removal by implementing full-scale mainstream deammonification was predicted.

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