A federated learning based semi-supervised credit prediction approach enhanced by multi-layer label mean

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Lin Li ◽  
Sijie Long ◽  
Jianxiu Bi ◽  
Guowei Wang ◽  
Jianwei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Privacy ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Framework Design ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Model Training ◽  
Credit Data ◽  
Deep Learning Network ◽  
Prediction Approach

Learning based credit prediction has attracted great interest from academia and industry. Different institutions hold a certain amount of credit data with limited users to build model. An institution has the requirement to obtain data from other institutions for improving model performance. However, due to the privacy protection and subject to legal restrictions, they encounter difficulties in data exchange. This affects the performance of credit prediction. In order to solve the above problem, this paper proposes a federated learning based semi-supervised credit prediction approach enhanced by multi-layer label mean, which can aggregate parameters of each institution via joint training while protecting the data privacy of each institution. Moreover, in actual production and life, there are usually more unlabeled credit data than labeled ones, and the distribution of their feature space presents multiple data-dense divisions. To deal with these, local meanNet model is proposed with a multi-layer label mean based semi-supervised deep learning network. In addition, this paper introduces a cost-sensitive loss function in the supervised part of the local mean model. Conducted on two public credit datasets, experimental results show that our proposed federated learning based approach has achieved promising credit prediction performance in terms of Accuracy and F1 measures. At the same time, the framework design mode that splits data aggregation and keys uniformly can improve the security of data privacy and enhance the flexibility of model training.

Privacy-preserving Collaborative Training for Medical Image Analysis Based on Multi-Blockchain

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wanlu Zhang ◽  
Qigang Wang ◽  
Mei Li
Keyword(s):  
Medical Image ◽  
Data Privacy ◽  
Medical Image Analysis ◽  
Auxiliary Information ◽  
Training Process ◽  
Private Data ◽  
Medical Institutions ◽  
Model Training ◽  
Collaborative Training ◽  
Similar Task

Background: As artificial intelligence and big data analysis develop rapidly, data privacy, especially patient medical data privacy, is getting more and more attention. Objective: To strengthen the protection of private data while ensuring the model training process, this article introduces a multi-Blockchain-based decentralized collaborative machine learning training method for medical image analysis. In this way, researchers from different medical institutions are able to collaborate to train models without exchanging sensitive patient data. Method: Partial parameter update method is applied to prevent indirect privacy leakage during model propagation. With the peer-to-peer communication in the multi-Blockchain system, a machine learning task can leverage auxiliary information from another similar task in another Blockchain. In addition, after the collaborative training process, personalized models of different medical institutions will be trained. Results: The experimental results show that our method achieves similar performance with the centralized model-training method by collecting data sets of all participants and prevents private data leakage at the same time. Transferring auxiliary information from similar task on another Blockchain has also been proven to effectively accelerate model convergence and improve model accuracy, especially in the scenario of absence of data. Personalization training process further improves model performance. Conclusion: Our approach can effectively help researchers from different organizations to achieve collaborative training without disclosing their private data.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Prediction of Separation Buffer to Compensate for the Closing Effect on Final Approach

Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Stanley Förster ◽  
Michael Schultz ◽  
Hartmut Fricke
Keyword(s):  
Quantile Regression ◽  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Quantile Function ◽  
Air Traffic ◽  
Point Estimate ◽  
Probabilistic Prediction ◽  
Traffic System ◽  
Final Approach ◽  
Model Training ◽  
Prediction Approach

The air traffic is mainly divided into en-route flight segments, arrival and departure segments inside the terminal maneuvering area, and ground operations at the airport. To support utilizing available capacity more efficiently, in our contribution we focus on the prediction of arrival procedures, in particular, the time-to-fly from the turn onto the final approach course to the threshold. The predictions are then used to determine advice for the controller regarding time-to-lose or time-to-gain for optimizing the separation within a sequence of aircraft. Most prediction methods developed so far provide only a point estimate for the time-to-fly. Complementary, we see the need to further account for the uncertain nature of aircraft movement based on a probabilistic prediction approach. This becomes very important in cases where the air traffic system is operated at its limits to prevent safety-critical incidents, e.g., separation infringements due to very tight separation. Our approach is based on the Quantile Regression Forest technique that can provide a measure of uncertainty of the prediction not only in form of a prediction interval but also by generating a probability distribution over the dependent variable. While the data preparation, model training, and tuning steps are identical to classic Random Forest methods, in the prediction phase, Quantile Regression Forests provide a quantile function to express the uncertainty of the prediction. After developing the model, we further investigate the interpretation of the results and provide a way for deriving advice to the controller from it. With this contribution, there is now a tool available that allows a more sophisticated prediction of time-to-fly, depending on the specific needs of the use case and which helps to separate arriving aircraft more efficiently.

A federated interpretable scorecard and its application in credit scoring

2021 ◽  
pp. 2142009
Author(s):  
Fanglan Zheng ◽  
Erihe ◽  
Kun Li ◽  
Jiang Tian ◽  
Xiaojia Xiang
Keyword(s):  
Privacy Protection ◽  
Data Privacy ◽  
Credit Scoring ◽  
Training Session ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Parameter Tuning ◽  
Kolmogorov Smirnov ◽  
Data Privacy Protection ◽  
Tuning Process ◽  
Positive Coefficients

In this paper, we propose a vertical federated learning (VFL) structure for logistic regression with bounded constraint for the traditional scorecard, namely FL-LRBC. Under the premise of data privacy protection, FL-LRBC enables multiple agencies to jointly obtain an optimized scorecard model in a single training session. It leads to the formation of scorecard model with positive coefficients to guarantee its desirable characteristics (e.g., interpretability and robustness), while the time-consuming parameter-tuning process can be avoided. Moreover, model performance in terms of both AUC and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistics is significantly improved by FL-LRBC, due to the feature enrichment in our algorithm architecture. Currently, FL-LRBC has already been applied to credit business in a China nation-wide financial holdings group.

Forecasting the risk at infractions: an ensemble comparison of machine learning approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Li ◽  
Desheng Wu
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Large Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Day To Day Operations ◽  
Prediction Approach

PurposeThe infraction of securities regulations (ISRs) of listed firms in their day-to-day operations and management has become one of common problems. This paper proposed several machine learning approaches to forecast the risk at infractions of listed corporates to solve financial problems that are not effective and precise in supervision.Design/methodology/approachThe overall proposed research framework designed for forecasting the infractions (ISRs) include data collection and cleaning, feature engineering, data split, prediction approach application and model performance evaluation. We select Logistic Regression, Naïve Bayes, Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Network and Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTMs) as ISRs prediction models.FindingsThe research results show that prediction performance of proposed models with the prior infractions provides a significant improvement of the ISRs than those without prior, especially for large sample set. The results also indicate when judging whether a company has infractions, we should pay attention to novel artificial intelligence methods, previous infractions of the company, and large data sets.Originality/valueThe findings could be utilized to address the problems of identifying listed corporates' ISRs at hand to a certain degree. Overall, results elucidate the value of the prior infraction of securities regulations (ISRs). This shows the importance of including more data sources when constructing distress models and not only focus on building increasingly more complex models on the same data. This is also beneficial to the regulatory authorities.

scholarly journals Using Model Performance to Assess the Representativeness of Data for Model Development and Calibration in Financial Institutions

Risks ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 204
Author(s):  
Chamay Kruger ◽  
Willem Daniel Schutte ◽  
Tanja Verster
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Pooled Data ◽  
External Data ◽  
First Case ◽  
Multivariate Prediction ◽  
Credit Data

This paper proposes a methodology that utilises model performance as a metric to assess the representativeness of external or pooled data when it is used by banks in regulatory model development and calibration. There is currently no formal methodology to assess representativeness. The paper provides a review of existing regulatory literature on the requirements of assessing representativeness and emphasises that both qualitative and quantitative aspects need to be considered. We present a novel methodology and apply it to two case studies. We compared our methodology with the Multivariate Prediction Accuracy Index. The first case study investigates whether a pooled data source from Global Credit Data (GCD) is representative when considering the enrichment of internal data with pooled data in the development of a regulatory loss given default (LGD) model. The second case study differs from the first by illustrating which other countries in the pooled data set could be representative when enriching internal data during the development of a LGD model. Using these case studies as examples, our proposed methodology provides users with a generalised framework to identify subsets of the external data that are representative of their Country’s or bank’s data, making the results general and universally applicable.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Steam Coal Price Based on Robust Regularized Kernel Regression and Empirical Mode Decomposition

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangwan Fu ◽  
Mingzhu Tang ◽  
Dongqun Xu ◽  
Jun Yang ◽  
Donglin Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Kernel Function ◽  
Dimensional Space ◽  
Kernel Regression ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Evaluation Index ◽  
High Dimensional ◽  
Polynomial Kernel ◽  
Mode Decomposition

Aiming at the problem of difficulties in modeling the nonlinear relation in the steam coal dataset, this article proposes a forecasting method for the price of steam coal based on robust regularized kernel regression and empirical mode decomposition. By selecting the polynomial kernel function, the robust loss function and L2 regular term to construct a robust regularized kernel regression model are used. The polynomial kernel function does not depend on the kernel parameters and can mine the global rules in the dataset so that improves the forecasting stability of the kernel model. This method maps the features to the high-dimensional space by using the polynomial kernel function to transform the nonlinear law in the original feature space into linear law in the high-dimensional space and helps learn the linear law in the high-dimensional feature space by using the linear model. The Huber loss function is selected to reduce the influence of abnormal noise in the dataset on the model performance, and the L2 regular term is used to reduce the risk of model overfitting. We use the combined model based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to compensate for the error of robust regularized kernel regression model, thus making up for the limitations of the single forecasting model. Finally, we use the steam coal dataset to verify the proposed model and such model has an optimal evaluation index value compared to other contrast models after the model performance is evaluated as per the evaluation index such as RMSE, MAE, and mean absolute percentage error.

Broadening volcanic eruption forecasting using transfer machine learning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Dempsey ◽  
Shane Cronin ◽  
Andreas Kempa-Liehr ◽  
Martin Letourneur
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Seismic Station ◽  
Feature Space ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Single Station ◽  
Data Driven Approach ◽  
Model Training

<p>Sudden steam-driven eruptions at tourist volcanoes were the cause of 63 deaths at Mt Ontake (Japan) in 2014, and 22 deaths at Whakaari (New Zealand) in 2019. Warning systems that can anticipate these eruptions could provide crucial hours for evacuation or sheltering but these require reliable forecasting. Recently, machine learning has been used to extract eruption precursors from observational data and train forecasting models. However, a weakness of this data-driven approach is its reliance on long observational records that span multiple eruptions. As many volcano datasets may only record one or no eruptions, there is a need to extend these techniques to data-poor locales.</p><p>Transfer machine learning is one approach for generalising lessons learned at data-rich volcanoes and applying them to data-poor ones. Here, we tackle two problems: (1) generalising time series features between seismic stations at Whakaari to address recording gaps, and (2) training a forecasting model for Mt Ruapehu augmented using data from Whakaari. This required that we standardise data records at different stations for direct comparisons, devise an interpolation scheme to fill in missing eruption data, and combine volcano-specific feature matrices prior to model training.</p><p>We trained a forecast model for Whakaari using tremor data from three eruptions recorded at one seismic station (WSRZ) and augmented by data from two other eruptions recorded at a second station (WIZ). First, the training data from both stations were standardised to a unit normal distribution in log space. Then, linear interpolation in feature space was used to infer missing eruption features at WSRZ. Under pseudo-prospective testing, the augmented model had similar forecasting skill to one trained using all five eruptions recorded at a single station (WIZ). However, extending this approach to Ruapehu, we saw reduced performance indicating that more work is needed in standardisation and feature selection.</p>

Benefits and Barriers to Adoption of Information Technology in US Healthcare

2011 ◽  
pp. 133-145 ◽  
Author(s):  
James G. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Clinical Data ◽  
Data Privacy ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Convincing Evidence ◽  
Electronic Prescribing ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Legal Barriers ◽  
The U.S

Information technology such as electronic medical records (EMRs), electronic prescribing, and clinical decision support systems are recognized as essential tools in all developed countries. However, the U.S. lags significantly behind other countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Significant barriers impede wide-scale adoption of these tools in the U.S., especially EMR systems. These barriers include lack of access to capital by healthcare providers, complex systems, and lack of data standards that permit exchange of clinical data, privacy concerns and legal barriers, and provider resistance. Overcoming these barriers will require subsidies and performance incentives by payers and government, certification and standardization of vendor applications that permit clinical data exchange, removal of legal barriers, and convincing evidence of the cost-effectiveness of these IT applications.

Research Philosophy and Strategy

2010 ◽  
pp. 62-81
Author(s):  
Josephine Wapakabulo Thomas
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Data Exchange ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Sufficient Data ◽  
Technology Standards ◽  
Current Limit ◽  
Multiple Data ◽  
Research Questions ◽  
Research Philosophy

Chapter 2 highlighted both the critical need for data-exchange standards and the current limit of empirical research in the adoption of information technology standards and more specifically data-exchange standards such as STEP. These two issues were key motivations for this research. Therefore, to achieve the aims of this research, a qualitative approach was used to support the exploratory and descriptive nature of the research. This chapter discusses the justifications for the overall research philosophy and approach subscribed to, and the multiple data collection and data analysis activities used to collect sufficient data to answer the study’s research questions.

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