scholarly journals The Relationship Between Unemployment and Economic Growth in South Africa: VAR Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Waqar Khalid ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Small Businesses ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Entrepreneurial Activity ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

This article aims to study real GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate and their impacts on the unemployment rate in South Africa by considering the annual time-series data covering the period 1980-2018. The findings of the Johansen approach to co-integration concluded that there was no evidence of a long-run connection among the variables. The findings of Granger causality reported that there was bidirectional causality between the pairs of real GDP vs. unemployment rate, exchange rate vs. unemployment rate, and inflation rate vs. unemployment rate; however, a unidirectional causality was found in the pairs of real GDP vs. exchange rate and inflation rate vs. exchange rate. The findings of impulse-responses demonstrated that there was a negative significant response of the exchange rate to the unemployment rate in the long-run; conversely, the response of real GDP to the unemployment rate was positive significant in the long-run. Furthermore, the findings of variance decompositions reported that all regressors strongly predict the unemployment rate both in the short and long-run. The study suggested that the government should provide job-readiness skills, business awareness, technological knowledge, and training programs to its population to ascertain unemployment reduction. The study also suggested that the South African government should create a supportive environment and flexible labor market policies that attract small businesses and private-sector investment which ultimately strengthen the entrepreneurial activity with new entrepreneurial actors in order to create job opportunities and absorb a large pool of unemployed youth.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

scholarly journals How applicable is export-led growth and import-led growth hypotheses to South African economy?

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 15-24
Author(s):  
Ntebogang Dinah Moroke ◽  
Molebogeng Manoto
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Time Series ◽  
South African ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship

This paper investigated exports, imports and the economic growth nexus in the context of South Africa. The paper sets out to examine if long-run and causal relationships exist between these variables. Quarterly time series data ranging between 1998 and 2013 obtained from the South African Reserve Bank and Quantec databases was employed. Initial data analysis proved that the variables are integrated at their levels. The results further indicated that exports, imports and economic growth are co-integrated, confirming an existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Granger causal results were shown running from exports and imports to GDP and from imports to exports, validating export-led and import-led growth hypotheses in South Africa. A significant causality running from imports to exports, suggests that South Africa imported finished goods in excess. If this is not avoided, lots of problems could be caused. A suggestion was made to avoid such problematic issues as they may lead to replaced domestic output and displacement of employees. Another dreadful ramification may be an adverse effect on the economy which may further be experienced in the long-run.

scholarly journals COINTEGRATING RELATION BETWEEN EXCHANGE RATE AND GOLD PRICE

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
pp. 263-269
Author(s):  
Ranjusha ◽  
Devasia ◽  
Nandakumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Relationship

The very purpose of this paper is to analyse the relationship between gold price and Rupee – Dollar exchange rate in India. The study utilises the annual data of exchange Rate (ER) and Gold Price (GP) from 1970 to 2015 to determine the relationship. Different econometric tools like Unit root test, Johansen co integration test, Vector error correction model, Granger causality test are used for detecting the long run relation, if any between the mentioned variables. The result shows that there exists a long run cointegrating relation between the variables. That is we can stabilise the Gold Price movement by controlling the exchange rate fluctuations. Likewise it also shows that Exchange rate doesn’t Granger cause to Gold price and vice versa. It means that the time series data of one vasriable cannot be used to predict another.

An Analysis of the Dynamic Relationships between Inflation Volatility, Exchange Rate and Output Gap Volatility in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 4772-4787
Author(s):  
Sevilay Küçüksakarya ◽  
Mustafa Özer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Inflation Volatility ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the short and long-run relationships between Inflation volatility, exchange rate, and output gap volatility using the ARDL bounds testing approach in Turkey. Also, we repeat the estimates by using the output gap as well. Moreover, we examine the causal relationship among these variables by using Toda-Yamamoto and frequency domain causality tests. For this purpose, the study uses quarterly time series data between 2005 Q1 and 2020 Q4. Both short and long-run results of the ARDL estimates indicate that there are statistically significant relationships between exchange rate and inflation volatility, between output gap volatility and inflation volatility, and between the output gap and inflation volatility. As expected long-run effect of the exchange rate on inflation, volatility is negative, and the effects of both output volatility and output gap on inflation volatility are positive. Also, causality tests results indicate that changes in the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap will have permanent and temporary causal effects on inflation volatility. Therefore, the study results provide new evidence about the exchange rate, output gap volatility, and output gap. The policymakers should carefully consider these results to implement appropriate policies to reduce inflation volatility.

scholarly journals IMPACT OF TRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH OF PAKISTAN: AN ARDL TO CO-INTEGRATION APPROACH

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 47-58
Author(s):  
Nooreen Mujahid ◽  
Azeema Begum ◽  
Muhammad Noman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Stationary Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Relationship

This paper explores the relationship between export growth and economic growth in the case of Pakistan by employing time series data for the period 1971- 2013. This study has incorporated variables like GDP (Gross Domestic Product) exports, imports and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). We have applied ARDL to co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). The study provides the evidence of stationary time series variables, the existence of the long - run relationship between them, and the result of ECM revealed short rum equilibrium adjustment. Pakistan has many options for enhancing the export of the country. There is a dire need to minimize trade barriers and restrictions such as import and export quotas. Government of Pakistan had introduced Structural Reforms for liberalization, privatization and de-regulation which will actually shifted the trend of trade at a significant level in the end of 1980s. Low levels of interest rate can help exportable industries in which investments are needed to promote and enhance the exports. Stable exchange rate is the first and the best policy option for increasing the export and managing the imports. There is a cause and effect relationship between exchange rate and FDI. Pakistan has to immediately find the policies and processes that support logistics and facilitates trade.

scholarly journals Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Human Development Index in South Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 58
Author(s):  
Marius KOUNOU
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Many studies have been done on the impact of Foreign Direct Investment on economic growth and poverty reduction in developing countries, however there is a lack of empirical studies of FDI impact on poverty reduction in South Africa which is the second largest FDI recipients of one of the poorest regions in the world (sub Saharan Africa). We used time series data from 1990 to 2017 with the ARDL method to evaluate the impact of FDI Inflow on HDI in the country. The results show that FDI inflow has no significant impact on HDI both in the short run and long run on the country. This result is consistent with findings reported in the literature.

scholarly journals Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The primary motivation behind this study was to explore the consequential effects of budget deficit on South Africa`s economic growth. Six variables were used, namely: real GDP, budget deficit, real interest rate, labour, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to estimate the long-run equation and also measure the correction from disequilibrium of preceding periods. Using annual time series data spanning the period 1985 to 2015, empirical evidence from the study revealed that budget deficits and economic growth are inversely related. It was therefore concluded that high levels of budget deficit in South Africa have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study revealed that about 29 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within one year. The results obtained in this study are favourably similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by previous studies.

scholarly journals Consumer Spending and Consumer Confidence in South Africa: Cointegration Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-104
Author(s):  
John Khumalo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Consumer Confidence ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Long Run

The study uses the time series data covering the period 1980Q1 to 2012Q3 to test the existence of any possible long run relationship between consumer spending and consumer confidence in South Africa. The analysis is done using the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model, with the unit root and the direction of causation also tested before any inference can be concluded on this relationship. The unit root tests using the DF-GLS as well as the Ng-Peron show that consumer spending, consumer confidence and economic growth are integrated of order zero ~I(0). Causality results on the other hand reveal that causation runs from consumer confidence to consumer spending and from economic growth to consumer spending in South Africa. The non-existence of unit root compels the establishment of the long-run relationship that leads us to performing VECM to establish short-run and long-run dynamics. Our results indicate that the positive effect of consumer confidence cannot be refuted in South Africa and that it exerts a significant and positive impact on consumer spending, hence aggregate spending.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass-through and Its Impacts on the Nigeria Economy

2020 ◽  
pp. 44-53
Author(s):  
Obasanmi, Jude Omokugbo
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
High Level ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

Exchange Rate Pass-Through is an approximation of international macroeconomic transmission of prices and thus has implications for the timing of economic policy interventions. Hence, the degree and speed of pass-through is important for formulating policy responses to economic shocks. In this study, the researcher evaluated some channels and impacts of exchanges rate pass-through on the Nigerian economy during the period spanning from 1981 to 2018. Unit root and co-integration tests, as well as the error regression analysis on the time series data for the period 1981-2018 were carried out. The empirical outcomes indicated that Exchange rate changes pass-through interest rate and inflation rate channels on both short and long run and thus significantly affected interest rates and prices of goods and service in Nigeria during the study period. These outcomes yielded key policy insights and outlook which made the researcher to recommend amongst others that Government should ensure that the interest rates are brought to a level that will enable producers access investible funds. When there is high level of funds for production, exports would likely increase ceteris paribus, there by an increase in the foreign exchange earnings for the country and an appreciation of the naira.

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