scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY OF METALLURGICAL ENTERPRISES AS A COMPONENT OF DETERMINING THEIR INVESTMENT ATTRACTIVENESS

2021 ◽  
pp. 34
Author(s):  
L. Burkova
Keyword(s):  
Probability Of Bankruptcy

The Strategic Behavior of Firms with Debt

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (5) ◽  
pp. 1611-1636 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jérôme Reboul ◽  
Anna Toldrà-Simats
Keyword(s):  
Small Firms ◽  
Strategic Behavior ◽  
Financing Constraints ◽  
Large Firms ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy ◽  
The Difference

We empirically study the strategic behavior of levered firms in competitive and noncompetitive environments. We find that regulation induces firms to increase leverage, and this reduces their ability to compete when deregulation occurs. Large and small levered firms adopt different strategies upon deregulation. Whereas more levered small firms charge higher prices to increase margins at the expense of market shares, highly levered large firms prey on their rivals by increasing output and reducing prices to increase their market shares. The difference in their behavior is due to differences in their probability of bankruptcy and their financing constraints.

scholarly journals Assessment of the borrower's credit capacity using discriminative analysis

2020 ◽  
pp. 25-28
Author(s):  
Olena SHEPTUKHA ◽  
Anna LAPTIEVA
Keyword(s):  
Discriminant Analysis ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Correct Choice ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Security ◽  
Accurate Identification ◽  
Class A ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Banking Institutions ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy

Introduction. At the present stage of economic development in the organization of credit relations uses a significant number of approaches and methods to determine the creditworthiness of the borrower. Today, banking institutions are developing different approaches to the analysis of the borrower's creditworthiness. Moreover, each bank determines its own method of assessing the financial condition of a potential borrower, taking into account the specific terms of the contract. Assessment of creditworthiness of the enterprise by the method of discriminant analysis is carried out by calculating and interpreting the integrated indicator of financial condition. The purpose of the paper is to determine the nature and assessment of the borrower's creditworthiness using the methods of discriminant analysis. Results. Assessing the borrower's creditworthiness is a topical issue that affects the success and effectiveness of its lending activities. That is why the article is devoted to defining the nature and assessment of the borrower's creditworthiness using the methods of discriminant analysis. It assessed the creditworthiness of PJSC "Kharkiv Biscuit Factory" using foreign and domestic methods of assessing the creditworthiness of the borrower. It was determined that the main disadvantage of foreign models is that they are developed based on a study of enterprises in the United States and Western Europe. Weights are not adapted to modern conditions of transformation of the domestic economy and do not take into account the specifics of Ukrainian enterprises. These models have several significant limitations. They can be used only as additional models in parallel with modern domestic models. Calculating the probability of bankruptcy of PJSC "Kharkiv Biscuit Factory" according to foreign and domestic methods can give a clear conclusion about the financial condition of the enterprise. The above-mentioned methods demonstrate the absence of probability of bankruptcy at PJSC "Kharkiv Biscuit Factory". Conclusion. In general, the degree of reliability of the assessment of economic security of the enterprise and a set of necessary measures to prevent possible threats depend on the accurate identification of threats, the correct choice of a system of indicators for diagnosis. According to the results of calculations, it was determined that the company belongs to class A, which is characterized by high financial condition.

scholarly journals Features of Modeling the Probability of Bankruptcy Using Discriminant Models with Application in Economic Forensics

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (517) ◽  
pp. 88-93
Author(s):  
I. V. Hubanova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Economic ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Foreign Firms ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Crisis Situation ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Discriminant Models ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy ◽  
Negative Factors ◽  
Adequate Management

The article is aimed at studying the methodologies of forecasting bankruptcy, their application in forensic economic expertise, which will allow to make managerial decisions substantiated from the point of view of financial security of an enterprise and create opportunities for stable functioning and development of the enterprise. All enterprises are affected by negative factors and may find themselves in a crisis situation. That is why the management of enterprise should apply all existing measures to prevent bankruptcy and overcome crisis situations. Any crisis situation can be corrected if you respond to crises in time and form a balanced and adequate management system. Therefore, the use of bankruptcy forecasting methodologies will allow the management of enterprise to identify in advance negative trends in its development. The article analyzed the existing discriminant models for determining the probability of bankruptcy with their application in forensic economic expertise. In modern practice of the financial-economic activities of foreign firms, to assess the probability of bankruptcy, the discriminant models of Altman, Beaver, Taffler, Tishaw and some others received the widest application. It is defined that for a more justified forecast, it is advisable to use several methods at the same time to predict the probability of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprise. It is proposed to use a set of models to determine the probability of bankruptcy of enterprise in solving issues of economic forensic expertise, which will significantly increase the degree of probability of the results obtained. The proposed measures can be used not only to diagnose the likelihood of bankruptcy, but also to develop anti-crisis measures.

ANALYSIS OF BANKRUPTCY PROBABILITY ASSESSMENT MODELS

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mykola Romanyuk ◽  
◽  
Svitlana Tkachenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Stability ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Statistical Information ◽  
Probability Assessment ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Monetary Relations ◽  
Extensive Information ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy ◽  
Comparative Description

The article analyzes the main models for diagnosing the probability of bankruptcy. It is established that their need for the company is caused primarily by the existence of monetary relations of the company with various authorities, suppliers and consumers, because the obligations that arise in the company in this relationship, mean that within a certain period it must make specific actions in favor of another person: make a payment, deliver goods, provide services, perform work, etc. It is the accumulation of such obligations due to their late fulfillment that can ultimately lead to bankruptcy. It is established that the company's managers should pay much attention to determining financial stability and predicting the probability of bankruptcy as an important component of the company's anti-crisis policy, because early prediction of the crisis will help avoid negative consequences of its occurrence. The table of contents reveals the development, initial conditions of application and the procedure for calculating the probability of bankruptcy on the main domestic and foreign models, such as the five-factor Altman model, Taffler model, Springgate model, Creditman J. Depalian, Beaver system, as well as models Tereshchenko and Matviych. The efficiency of application of foreign models in comparison with domestic ones on concrete examples is checked and the greater predictive ability of domestic models in comparison with foreign ones for the Ukrainian economy is proved. A comparative description of the models is performed, indicating their advantages, disadvantages and features of use in Ukraine. The study used an extensive information base, which includes: legislation on bankruptcy proceedings; statistical information from official government sources; materials of professional publications.

scholarly journals Enterprise growth simulation model

2020 ◽  
Vol 175 ◽  
pp. 12006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilona Avlasenko ◽  
Lyudmila Avlasenko ◽  
Isa Peshkhoev ◽  
Yuri Podkolzin ◽  
Oksana Savelyeva
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Random Process ◽  
Random Function ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Small Enterprise ◽  
Working Capital ◽  
Loan Rate ◽  
Probability Of Bankruptcy ◽  
Annual Working

Simulation mathematical model of small enterprise functioning is under analysis in this article. It is assumed that annual working capital profitability and loan rate are random variables with normal distribution, the amount of borrowed capital does not exceed the amount of own working capital. Given the value of its working capital at the beginning of time, its dependence on time is constructed as a random process. The parameters of random variables are estimated based on the processing of statistical data on the previous activities of this enterprise. The implementation of the random process is statistically modeled. With the help of the statistical tests, implementations of random function of growth of own working capital are built and the probability of bankruptcy is estimated as relative frequency of cases of adoption of negative value by random function. It is proposed to use the built simulation model of the enterprise to estimate the probability of bankruptcy of the studied enterprise in the coming period (a given number ofyears).

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