Analysis of the Economic Sustainability of the Supply Chain Sector by Applying the Altman Z-Score Predictor

This paper fills the gap in the financial perspective of supply chain performance measurement, related to the lack of a bankruptcy probability indicator, and proposes a predictor which is the eighth-model of the Altman Z-Score Logistic Regression. Furthermore, a bankruptcy probability ranking is established for the companies’ supply chains, according to the industry to which they belong. Moreover, the values are set to establish three categories of companies according to predictor. The probability of bankruptcy is analysed and studied for the supply chain of different industries. The building industry is revealed to have the highest probability of bankruptcy.

Approaches to the analysis of enterprise’s financial state on the example of Cargill Animal Nutrition LLC

The article analyzes the financial statements of Cargill Animal Nutrition LLC, which aims to become a leader in feed production. The urgency of the need to find optimal ways to assess the financial state of enterprises to take the necessary measures in case of instability of the firm is substantiated. The main methods of analysis of financial statements of companies have been identified and substantiated, which will allow agricultural enterprises to analyze their financial state and take measures to optimize their activities. Various approaches have been applied to the analysis of the company's financial position, including horizontal analysis of balance sheet indicators and statement of financial performance, vertical analysis of the balance sheet structure, and coefficient analysis of profitability, liquidity and solvency of the company, with a comprehensive assessment of bankruptcy. Vertical analysis is used to track the structure of a company's assets and liabilities over a period. This analysis makes it possible to draw conclusions about the liquidity and solvency of the company. Horizontal analysis helps to analyze the growth rates of various indicators presented in the financial statements. Finally, the ratio analysis is a system of ratios that allows you to analyze the liquidity, profitability, solvency and investment attractiveness of the company compared to other companies. According to the results of the study, it was concluded that the financial state of Cargill EN LLC has improved. In particular, the net profit margin of Cargill EN LLC improved from 3.1 % in 2018 to 10 % in 2020. According to the value of Altman's Z-score, the probability of bankruptcy is very low. Perspective directions of researches in a part of an estimation of the generalized indicator of instability of the company taking into account features of an agro-industrial complex of Ukraine are substantiated.

BANKRUPTCY PREVENTION OF ENTERPRISES AS A COMPONENT OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Sustainable development of the enterprise is characterized by stable, balanced functioning of its three subsystems – economic, social and environmental. However, development is impossible without ups and downs, which disrupts stability. Recently, the spread of the pandemic has had a negative impact on the world economy and jeopardized the level of its sustainable development. In Ukraine, the impact of the pandemic has exacerbated the crisis due to the stratification of the unstable economic and political situation in the country. As a result, this led to a rapid growth in the number of unprofitable enterprises. Statistics show an increase in the number of initiated bankruptcy proceedings of enterprises and even their liquidation due to insolvency. The article hypothesizes that development cannot occur constantly, and therefore does not exclude the possibility of volatile states. Unsustainable development of the enterprise is characterized by its financial insolvency, which is identified with its bankruptcy. At the same time, bankruptcy of enterprises in Ukraine is quite common. Bankruptcy of the enterprise – the inability of the debtor to restore its solvency through the procedure of rehabilitation and restructuring and is a consequence of unsustainable development. It arises due to external (economic, scientific and technical, political, legal, international, environmental, pandemic, infrastructural) and internal factors (poor management of the founders of the debtor and its management). Internal factors are the main ones. Economic and legal means that can help identify in the early stages of negative trends in financial condition and prevent them – the development plan of the enterprise. One of the components of this plan is the economic analysis of the financial condition of the enterprise. The legislator has significantly simplified the requirements for filing a lawsuit to declare a company bankrupt. This can lead to abuse of the right to file such a lawsuit (raider seizures, tax evasion and unfair competition). In our opinion, a safeguard against abuse can be not only certain restrictions for the initiating creditor in the right to file for bankruptcy, but also the establishment by the legislator of increased liability for him in case of establishing the facts of abuse of such a right. In addition, the article emphasizes that the current methodological approaches to assessing the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises do not allow establishing the approach of this event taking into account the time factor, but only indicate the possibility of its occurrence. In this case, the range of possible time affects the choice of top management of urgent measures to correct the financial condition of the enterprise, the implementation of which will prevent the opening of bankruptcy proceedings or to delay the likelihood of its occurrence. The proposed methodological approaches allow determining the probability of bankruptcy of Ukrainian enterprises in order to predict the development of events in the early stages of bankruptcy.

Pengujian Pola Siklus Arus Kas dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan

The pattern of cash flow from operating, investing, and financing activities of each company is one of the important information for many parties, especially in predicting company performance and the probability of bankruptcy. The cash flow pattern used in this study uses 8 forms of cash flow patterns. The data collected consisted of 96 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange with an observation period of 2010 to 2019. The purpose of this study was to determine whether there are differences in any cash flow patterns between companies that went bankrupt and those that did not. This study further aims to prove the cash flow patterns of operating, investing, and financing activities can be used to predict the probability of bankruptcy. The results prove that there are significant differences in cash flow patterns between companies that have gone bankrupt and those that are not. The results of further research prove that the company has the greatest probability of bankruptcy when the company has negative operating cash flows, positive cash flows from investing activities and positive cash flows from financing activities. Furthermore, the company experiences the probability of bankruptcy when the company has negative operating and investing cash flows with positive cash flows from financing activities. The company does not have a probability of bankruptcy when the company has positive operating cash flow with negative investment cash flow and positive cash flow from financing activities. Keywords: Bankruptcy, Cash Flow Pattern, Cash Flow from Operating, Cash Flow from Investing, and Cash Flow from Financing

The influence of the vulnerability of sectors on their survival and probability of insolvency: the case of small and medium entities in Spain

This paper looks at a sample of small and medium entities in Spain and analyzes the effect of the vulnerability of sectors to insolvency on their survival and the probability that they will go bankrupt. We collected data from solvent and insolvent firms in Spain over the period 2012-2016, and grouped them according to the percentage of insolvencies by sector (highest, lowest, and a reference group). The results show that no differences in the endurance of the firms emerge among the groups, while some variables appear to be relevant when the logit analysis is applied. Survival depends on liquidity and size in all industries, but profitability and turnover are also essential for the group with the highest levels of insolvency. The probability of bankruptcy is mainly explained by turnover and short-term solvency. Size and turnover have negative effects on bankruptcy. Age is also a common factor, but with a different interpretation for each technique. The main contribution of this paper is the analysis of insolvency in the two dimensions of survival and probability according to the sectorial insolvency rate.

Methodological peculiarities of probability estimation of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises in Ukraine

Purpose. The purpose of the study is to develop the concept of complex estimation of bankruptcy probability of agrarian enterprises in Ukraine, taking into account the specifics of agricultural activities. Methodology / approach. To achieve the purpose, the following research methods were used: abstract-logical (at disclosing the essence of the concept of “bankruptcy”); dialectical (for theoretical generalizations on determining the problems and ways to overcome them, drawing conclusions); expert estimations, comparative analysis, analysis and synthesis (at developing the concept of estimating the probability of bankruptcy); relative indicators-coefficients (at studying models for estimating the probability of bankruptcy occurrence); monographic (for in-depth study of separate types of factors affecting the probability of bankruptcy); graphical and tabular (at presenting the research results). Results. It has been proven that the discriminant analysis for estimating the probability of bankruptcy (the construction of multifactor models that summarize the most important financial indicators in the integrated index) does not take into account the industry characteristics of agrarian enterprises. The concept of bankruptcy diagnostics is proposed, which combines discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative signs of a possible crisis of an agrarian enterprise. The indicators selected for expert examination cover non-financial factors – the risks and threats to agricultural production in Ukraine, and their generalization may specify the risk of bankruptcy occurrence. The scoring model has been derived by the method of expert estimations, the scale has been developed, which is combined with the discriminant one that will enable to bring the results of the research into the interval of the indicator for estimating the occurrence of bankruptcy. Originality / scientific novelty. The definition of the term “bankruptcy” has been improved: the author’s definition combines the economic and legal approaches to it. The main risks of agricultural activities in Ukraine have been specified and their impact on the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises has been outlined. It has been developed the methodological concept for estimating the probability of bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, which takes into account informal factors. For the first time, in order to predict the bankruptcy of agrarian enterprises, it has been proposed to combine discriminant analysis and expert estimation of qualitative indicators that increase its risk in agriculture. Practical value / implications. The application of the developed methodology provides an opportunity for the agrarian enterprise of timely responding to the threats of financial crisis and bankruptcy in order to prevent them. The proposed approach can be used as an element of estimating the insurance risk or investment attractiveness of agricultural enterprises. In case of its adaptation, the methodology can be used in foreign practice.

PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN MALAYSIA AND ITS EFFECT ON STOCK RETURNS

Unstable economic conditions have an adverse impact on the financial performance of firms, leading to financial distress, which is an unfavourable situation for investors as it may affect their investment returns. Thus, this study attempted to predict financial distress and to examine the effect of financial distress on stock returns by using firms listed on Bursa Malaysia from 1990 to 2020. This study used the logit model to find the probability of bankruptcy and also as a proxy for financial distress risk in the asset pricing model. From this study, financial distress risk was found to be insignificant in pricing stock returns in all tested models. This finding demonstrates that financial distress risk does not affect stock returns since this risk may be eliminated through diversification.